Author Topic: On demanding unending GDP growth  (Read 12009 times)

Offline vagabond

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On demanding unending GDP growth
« on: October 31, 2012, 03:58:39 am »
Quotes from the other thread:

Innovation doesn't create something out of nothing. There is a finite amount of resources and real wealth in the world, innovation is just a way of chopping them into different quantities. It is a matter of fact that for one country to have real economic growth (above and beyond inflation), some other place in the world must have a depletion of resources or wealth.
Perhaps I am wrong however. Do you see a way for all countries in the world to enjoy a positive growth in GDP forever?

Don't want to spin this thread way off track, but I disagree with that statement strongly.

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Offline jerseyhoya

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Re: On demanding unending GDP growth
« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2012, 04:07:06 am »
I'll respond tomorrow if someone hasn't already. Not an argument I want to engage at length after midnight.

Cliff notes version: innovation and technological advantages lead to increases in productivity and other benefits; law of comparative advantage in trade means another country does not have to suffer in order for a country to see real growth.

Offline RojoLeón

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Re: On demanding unending GDP growth
« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2012, 04:56:53 am »
www.physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2012/04/economist-meets-physicist/

This is pretty essential discussion of the issues pertinent to this thread.

Physics are the regulating factor - arithmetic, however creative, cannot make something from nothing. 7 billion + people, using resources at increasing rates of consumption = a great big cultural cliff we are accelerating towards the edge of

Offline vagabond

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Re: On demanding unending GDP growth
« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2012, 05:16:09 am »
I'll respond tomorrow if someone hasn't already. Not an argument I want to engage at length after midnight.

Cliff notes version: innovation and technological advantages lead to increases in productivity and other benefits; law of comparative advantage in trade means another country does not have to suffer in order for a country to see real growth.

Sure, take your time.
Sometimes a man stands up during supper
and walks outdoors, and keeps on walking,
because of a church that stands somewhere in the East.
---Rilke

Offline vagabond

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Re: On demanding unending GDP growth
« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2012, 05:16:52 am »
www.physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2012/04/economist-meets-physicist/

This is pretty essential discussion of the issues pertinent to this thread.

Physics are the regulating factor - arithmetic, however creative, cannot make something from nothing. 7 billion + people, using resources at increasing rates of consumption = a great big cultural cliff we are accelerating towards the edge of

Thanks rojo, it seems a very pertinent discussion so far to this one.
Sometimes a man stands up during supper
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because of a church that stands somewhere in the East.
---Rilke

Offline Carlos: Very Kickable

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Re: On demanding unending GDP growth
« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2012, 09:37:39 am »
This argument is so obviously wrong I had to read the OP twice to make sure I wasn't missing anything.

It's no surprise to see Rojo Leon misconflating ideas about physics and applying them to economics, and in so doing showing he hasn't the first clue about either*.

Wealth is not a zero sum equation - it's part of the reason why man, as a species, is unique in becoming richer as our population has increased.

It's schoolboy stuff and was first properly codified by Adam Smith. Here is a link to a useful précis given by Matt Ridley which addresses the main point:

 http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=OLHh9E5ilZ4&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DOLHh9E5ilZ4



*no i cant byť obťažovaní vysvetľovať to na vás - ste nechcel by som to pochopiť tak
I know you struggle with reading comprehension Carlitos, but do try to pay attention

Offline gordonchas

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Re: On demanding unending GDP growth
« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2012, 10:27:13 am »
This argument is so obviously wrong I had to read the OP twice to make sure I wasn't missing anything.

It's no surprise to see Rojo Leon misconflating ideas about physics and applying them to economics, and in so doing showing he hasn't the first clue about either*.

Wealth is not a zero sum equation - it's part of the reason why man, as a species, is unique in becoming richer as our population has increased.



What you put.

Has this thread been started as something quirkily ironic and I'm missing the joke?

Offline pantbash

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Re: On demanding unending GDP growth
« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2012, 11:01:50 am »
A general query after watching the above TED link.


What happens when resources run out to make a specific item (or item set) to trade?

Does GDP still increase because there will be replacement items created via innovation (of different constituents), that although perhaps inferior in function would be worth the same or more then the origional due to scarceness of supply & perceived value?
Atheism (from Greek, "athos" meaning 'hell', "eios" meaning 'demon' or 'Satan', and "ismos" meaning Liberal, literally "Satan's Liberal Helldemon")

Offline Carlos: Very Kickable

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Re: On demanding unending GDP growth
« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2012, 02:53:00 pm »
A general query after watching the above TED link.


What happens when resources run out to make a specific item (or item set) to trade?

Does GDP still increase because there will be replacement items created via innovation (of different constituents), that although perhaps inferior in function would be worth the same or more then the origional due to scarceness of supply & perceived value?

I think human history has shown that that either the second scenario you mention will occur or we will innovate a new way of working.

In real terms, items rarely "run out" but everything has a price - there is for example a finite amount of crude oil that can be mined at 10 dollars a barrel but if people are prepared to pay 20 dollars suddenly there's a lot more resources that can be accessed.

I know you struggle with reading comprehension Carlitos, but do try to pay attention

Offline RojoLeón

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Re: On demanding unending GDP growth
« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2012, 03:26:39 pm »
*no i cant byť obťažovaní vysvetľovať to na vás - ste nechcel by som to pochopiť tak

Care to post that in English? Or, am I to assume that you are just reverting to cowardly type and acting in bad faith?

Offline hansen6

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Re: On demanding unending GDP growth
« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2012, 03:28:08 pm »
I'll respond tomorrow if someone hasn't already. Not an argument I want to engage at length after midnight.

Cliff notes version: innovation and technological advantages lead to increases in productivity and other benefits;
Increases in productivity lead to spare capacity and more production, consuming more resources. The advances in tech and so on in the developed world hasn't led to us using less resources.

law of comparative advantage in trade means another country does not have to suffer in order for a country to see real growth.
It can be used to make the other countries suffer - this is the point of trade blocks and tariffs.

Offline RojoLeón

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Re: On demanding unending GDP growth
« Reply #11 on: October 31, 2012, 03:37:29 pm »
What you put.

Has this thread been started as something quirkily ironic and I'm missing the joke?

Have a read of the USD physics professor's article. He states much of what might be said on the issue of conceptual infinite growth versus a limited planet from where resources might be drawn. 



This is the world economy: Do you think this kind of ponzi bubble is sustainable?

Offline helmboy_nige

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Re: On demanding unending GDP growth
« Reply #12 on: October 31, 2012, 04:03:56 pm »
Have a read of the USD physics professor's article. He states much of what might be said on the issue of conceptual infinite growth versus a limited planet from where resources might be drawn. 

This is the world economy: Do you think this kind of ponzi bubble is sustainable?

It's sustainable as long as enough people believe in it, which is really worrying and makes it sound far too much like a religion (which I suppose it is).  The value of things stopped being tangible long before I was born.

Offline RojoLeón

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Re: On demanding unending GDP growth
« Reply #13 on: October 31, 2012, 05:18:30 pm »
It's sustainable as long as enough people believe in it, which is really worrying and makes it sound far too much like a religion (which I suppose it is).  The value of things stopped being tangible long before I was born.

CQ and gordonchas believe in it. They presumably also believe in the Easter Bunny and fairies. It is interesting and instructive that they just say it is so, with nothing to back up their faith. Just like Creationists.

Faith based economics. What could go wrong?

Offline gordonchas

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Re: On demanding unending GDP growth
« Reply #14 on: October 31, 2012, 06:05:00 pm »
CQ and gordonchas believe in it. They presumably also believe in the Easter Bunny and fairies. It is interesting and instructive that they just say it is so, with nothing to back up their faith. Just like Creationists.

Faith based economics. What could go wrong?


Nothing to back it up? How about a few centuries of empirical evidence. When will you dismal Malthusians ever be able to admit that human ingenuity has meant that the earth hasn't run out of resources, despite repeated claims that it's about to do so, and in fact, it never will.

In the meantime you seem to want to improve our lot, and that of future generations, by reducing our standard of living in the name of "sustainability". What a shocking lack of imagination, not to mention mis-reading of history.

Offline RojoLeón

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Re: On demanding unending GDP growth
« Reply #15 on: October 31, 2012, 06:17:38 pm »
Nothing to back it up? How about a few centuries of empirical evidence. When will you dismal Malthusians ever be able to admit that human ingenuity has meant that the earth hasn't run out of resources, despite repeated claims that it's about to do so, and in fact, it never will.

In the meantime you seem to want to improve our lot, and that of future generations, by reducing our standard of living in the name of "sustainability". What a shocking lack of imagination, not to mention mis-reading of history.

Energy Returned On Energy Invested. I have not claimed anything will run out - I have stated emphatically that we are limited by simple physics. If it costs you a net loss to extract the energy source, then the supply is effectively over. EROEI ratios are reducing steady. They will equilibrate before too long. What then?

Where is the replacement for oil coming from? When is it coming?

What form will it take - is it fuel cell tech? Is it another form of combustion/heat fuel?

Is it renewable or is it a mineral?


What will its typical EROEI be? Will it be freely available, or exclusive and belong to the rich only?


You can throw 'Malthusian' around as a pejorative it you like. Unless you are a magician, I suggest you stay tethered to mathematics, physics and chemistry. Seriously, read www.physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2012/04/economist-meets-physicist/

If you find serious errors there in his analysis, then please let me know. Otherwise, we are going to have to assume that 'magical thinking' is still the preserve of fiction.

Offline Carlos: Very Kickable

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Re: On demanding unending GDP growth
« Reply #16 on: October 31, 2012, 06:18:56 pm »
Care to post that in English? Or, am I to assume that you are just reverting to cowardly type and acting in bad faith?

I assumed you would be using your legendary cut-n-paste skills to plug it into Google translate - maybe your CNTRL button has finally given up the ghost?

It says "no I cant be bothered expanding on the answer - you wouldnt understand it anyway" as I anticipated you'd follow up with your usual request to expand on a post (which you did) followed by digging you heels in, plugging your fingers in your ears and a refusal to address any substantive points (which you thankfully didn't get round to) followed by accusations of "acting in bad faith" (see above).

In terms of physics think of our posts colliding as particles of matter and anti-matter. Ill leave you to work out which is which :)

EDIT: Just realised my mistake of not scrolling down the page where you set up your straw man arguments that you love knocking back down with such aplomb. I was right about you cutting and pasting it into Google though wasn't I?  8)

It's an interesting point in a way that you think of notional wealth as a giant Ponzui scheme. In a way ALL wealth is a ponzi scheme as something is only as valuable as it is perceived. In fact, if you think about it (without the happy-clappy sandal-toting tree-hugging agenda) you might think that perceived value might actually be the only hope for a planet of limited resources - ie - its better to spend 100k on a range rover than 5 land rovers. 

And its also interesting that you put human innovation at the door of "fantasists and religious devotees" - in a way I suppose they were but its far too subtle a point for you to realise. If not for human innovation how do you explain our vast explosion in terms of numbers and quality of life we have enjoyed as a species?

It's precisely your inability to grasp this amazingly simple truth that explains your crazed meanderings in the environment threads - you literally have no idea what you're talking about.

And so back to the slovakian phrase  - there's really little point in explaining it - you dont have the capacity to understand it anyway. Is that a little clearer for you?  :wave
« Last Edit: October 31, 2012, 06:34:20 pm by Carlos Qiqabal »
I know you struggle with reading comprehension Carlitos, but do try to pay attention

Offline RojoLeón

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Re: On demanding unending GDP growth
« Reply #17 on: October 31, 2012, 06:40:32 pm »
And its also interesting that you put human innovation at the door of "fantasists and religious devotees" - in a way I suppose they were but its far too subtle a point for you to realise. If not for human innovation how do you explain our vast explosion in terms of numbers and quality of life we have enjoyed as a species?

High EROEI ratios. Coal followed by Oil. That is all it is.

Quote
Energy Returned On Energy Invested. I have not claimed anything will run out - I have stated emphatically that we are limited by simple physics. If it costs you a net loss to extract the energy source, then the supply is effectively over. EROEI ratios are reducing steady. They will equilibrate before too long. What then?

Where is the replacement for oil coming from? When is it coming?

What form will it take - is it fuel cell tech? Is it another form of combustion/heat fuel?

Is it renewable or is it a mineral?


What will its typical EROEI be? Will it be freely available, or exclusive and belong to the rich only?

What say you? If we 'will just figure it out'?

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Re: On demanding unending GDP growth
« Reply #18 on: October 31, 2012, 06:41:36 pm »


I know you struggle with reading comprehension Carlitos, but do try to pay attention

Offline Devon Red

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Re: On demanding unending GDP growth
« Reply #19 on: October 31, 2012, 06:41:45 pm »
Nothing to back it up? How about a few centuries of empirical evidence. When will you dismal Malthusians ever be able to admit that human ingenuity has meant that the earth hasn't run out of resources, despite repeated claims that it's about to do so, and in fact, it never will.

What resources are you talking about? I'm assuming you can't be talking about one-time use resources like fossil fuels; you accept that these are finite, right? And you accept that the global economy runs on these finite resources?

What do your centuries of evidence have to say about a world population of 7 billion plus?

Offline RojoLeón

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Re: On demanding unending GDP growth
« Reply #20 on: October 31, 2012, 06:43:54 pm »
Err, I donno, we will just figure it out  ???



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Re: On demanding unending GDP growth
« Reply #21 on: October 31, 2012, 06:50:06 pm »
High EROEI ratios. Coal followed by Oil. That is all it is.

What say you? If we 'will just figure it out'?

                                                                            - African Savannah - circa 1 million years BC -

Tribesman: You know - I figured out that if we cut down that tree and heat up our deer meat with the fire we could probably go hunting for longer and collect more meat.

Tribesman wearing sandals: NO! you CAN'T cut down our tree!! THINK OF THE EROEIRs!!! We're DOOOMED  i TELL YOU DOOOMED!!! Our only hope is to nurture the twigs on the tree can't you SEE???!!

Tribesman: *Facepalms*

I know you struggle with reading comprehension Carlitos, but do try to pay attention

Offline RojoLeón

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Re: On demanding unending GDP growth
« Reply #22 on: October 31, 2012, 06:50:54 pm »


What is replacing Oil's EROEI?

Quote
Modern agriculture is the use of land to convert petroleum into food.

Feed all those people, how exactly?

Will we 'just figure it out'?

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Re: On demanding unending GDP growth
« Reply #23 on: October 31, 2012, 06:53:48 pm »
I know you struggle with reading comprehension Carlitos, but do try to pay attention

Offline RojoLeón

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Re: On demanding unending GDP growth
« Reply #24 on: October 31, 2012, 07:00:11 pm »
                                                                            - African Savannah - circa 1 million years BC -

Tribesman: You know - I figured out that if we cut down that tree and heat up our deer meat with the fire we could probably go hunting for longer and collect more meat.

Tribesman wearing sandals: NO! you CAN'T cut down our tree!! THINK OF THE EROEIRs!!! We're DOOOMED  i TELL YOU DOOOMED!!! Our only hope is to nurture the twigs on the tree can't you SEE???!!

Tribesman: *Facepalms*

Muscle and firewood. That was pretty much 90% of the energy supply pre-hydrocarbon led industrialization.

In case you didn't realize it, trees are limited by two factors: Sunlight (solar energy) and nutrient supply. What you describe above (one tree being chopped down for fire wood) is pretty easy to sustain - it is self limiting due to *drumroll* the EROEI ratios.



What is next then, or wise one? What is replacing the high EROEI of hydrocarbons?

http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2011/10/sustainable-means-bunkty-to-me/

Quote
We know that the era before fossil fuels used firewood, animals, and human (often slave) labor as sources of energy. Some supplemental energy came from wind, water, and animal fats as well. In most cases, this arrangement was by definition sustainable in the true sense: living off of the yearly energy income provided by the sun. Even then, deforestation and hunting some animals to extinction (or to scarcity) still happened. Looking at the symmetry inherent in the graph, it begs the question of whether this same existence lies in store for us on the right-hand side. Our accumulated scientific knowledge has the potential to break that symmetry, but only if coupled with collective wisdom. The future is not yet written, and may not care what we imagine could happen.

Meanwhile, we sit roughly at the position of the star in the figure. We’re living large and feeling pretty heady about our cleverness and the promise of the future. Up, up, up! That’s the world we’ve known. Surely it will always be so, now that we finally got smart.

Quote
The basic point is that we are entering uncharted territory. This toothless statement has been true at every point in history. But I believe that this century is the one in which we must confront the thorniest issue ever presented to the human race. This moment is special because we have dramatically built up our population, technology, science, medicine, and democratic institutions as a direct result of vast amounts of surplus energy stemming from a one-time resource. The fossil fuel experience has made us dangerously confident about our cleverness and dominance over nature. What makes this century special, then, is that we will have to cope with a diminishing supply rate of the resource that has been of paramount importance to our high-tech existence.
« Last Edit: February 3, 2013, 11:16:11 pm by RojoLeón »

Offline Carlos: Very Kickable

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Re: On demanding unending GDP growth
« Reply #25 on: October 31, 2012, 07:03:39 pm »
I know you struggle with reading comprehension Carlitos, but do try to pay attention

Thanks for my new sig!  :lmao
I know you struggle with reading comprehension Carlitos, but do try to pay attention

Offline Carlos: Very Kickable

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Re: On demanding unending GDP growth
« Reply #26 on: October 31, 2012, 07:15:14 pm »
are the EROEIs the reason why you cut and paste so much crap?

Aaaaanyway - back to the original point - the reason its hard to explain to a flat-earther why the world is round is often not due to a lack of intelligence on the latter's part (though i do wonder with you RJ - hence the new sig!) - it's due to the lack of capacity for independent thought married to the absence of a proper education mixed with an overbearing ego that prevents you learning anything that's not already in your world-view. It's a pretty toxic combination as I'm sure most people will agree,

But I don't want to distract you - no doubt you have work to get on with digging your underground shelter and pooping into your plastic bags to create your own inexhaustible energy supply. No doubt anyone studying how much crap you come out with would no doubt be dazzled by your particular EROEIr.

You really crack me up  :lmao
« Last Edit: October 31, 2012, 07:20:47 pm by Carlos Qiqabal »
I know you struggle with reading comprehension Carlitos, but do try to pay attention

Offline Carlos: Very Kickable

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Re: On demanding unending GDP growth
« Reply #27 on: October 31, 2012, 07:39:56 pm »
Oh jeez - you're back with your bipolar "good faith" and "snark" posts again.

Let me break it down for you  - you can feel free to disengage any time you want to however I will pick you up on your lame-brained posts whenever and wherever I choose to - that's the point of an internet discussion forum n'est-ce pas? I actually feel a moral obligation to do it - think of me as a bulwark against idiocy. Plus of course its amusing because you take your dunderheaded views so seriously I can't help but giggle. And as for your asking me not to engage you - you have posted reply after reply to my own posts.


But enough fun for now - there is work to be done building my own fallout shelter. DOOMED i tells ya!!!  :lmao

I only hope one day you make it past your 18th century view of the world.
I know you struggle with reading comprehension Carlitos, but do try to pay attention

Offline jerseyhoya

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Re: On demanding unending GDP growth
« Reply #28 on: October 31, 2012, 07:45:20 pm »
Nothing to back it up? How about a few centuries of empirical evidence. When will you dismal Malthusians ever be able to admit that human ingenuity has meant that the earth hasn't run out of resources, despite repeated claims that it's about to do so, and in fact, it never will.

In the meantime you seem to want to improve our lot, and that of future generations, by reducing our standard of living in the name of "sustainability". What a shocking lack of imagination, not to mention mis-reading of history.

If RAWK had like buttons, I'd have liked this post

Offline Devon Red

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Re: On demanding unending GDP growth
« Reply #29 on: October 31, 2012, 07:50:26 pm »
Let me break it down for you  - you can feel free to disengage any time you want to however I will pick you up on your lame-brained posts whenever and wherever I choose to - that's the point of an internet discussion forum n'est-ce pas? I actually feel a moral obligation to do it - think of me as a bulwark against idiocy.

If you really feel a 'moral obligation' then why don't you engage with Rojo's arguments on a level higher than name calling? You know; facts and figures, maybe a statistic or two, perhaps a salient quote. No one wants to read a thread of bitching and insults - that's not the point of internet discussion forums, n'est-ce pas?


Offline RojoLeón

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Re: On demanding unending GDP growth
« Reply #30 on: October 31, 2012, 07:56:34 pm »
If you really feel a 'moral obligation' then why don't you engage with Rojo's arguments on a level higher than name calling? You know; facts and figures, maybe a statistic or two, perhaps a salient quote. No one wants to read a thread of bitching and insults - that's not the point of internet discussion forums, n'est-ce pas?

Oops! He started it  :o

Offline Devon Red

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Re: On demanding unending GDP growth
« Reply #31 on: October 31, 2012, 08:04:44 pm »
Oops! He started it  :o

I got that :)

I've already had a taste of CQs 'debating style' on the global warming thread. Apparently I'm profoundly uneducated and incapable of independent thought. I also live the life of a medieval peasant, wallowing in my own filth.

Probably best to just ignore him totally and not let him derail the thread. Unless he actually manages to articulate an argument with some kind of factual basis. Ball's in your court Carlos.


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Re: On demanding unending GDP growth
« Reply #32 on: October 31, 2012, 08:18:53 pm »
Oops! He started it  :o

Yes - that doesn't sound bitchy at all RJ.

Devon -  i knew it wouldn't be long before you came bounding to RJ's defence. if you scan back to the beginning of the thread you will see how I have provide a video link with simple to understand terms for you to view with plenty of evidence, facts and figures that addresses the topic of the thread rather than RJ's tedious straw-men arguments. If only someone would enforce some emissions regulations for you two! :)
I know you struggle with reading comprehension Carlitos, but do try to pay attention

Offline Devon Red

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Re: On demanding unending GDP growth
« Reply #33 on: October 31, 2012, 08:32:58 pm »
Devon -  i knew it wouldn't be long before you came bounding to RJ's defence. if you scan back to the beginning of the thread you will see how I have provide a video link with simple to understand terms for you to view with plenty of evidence, facts and figures that addresses the topic of the thread rather than RJ's tedious straw-men arguments. If only someone would enforce some emissions regulations for you two! :)

The Matt Ridley video? The same Matt Ridley who sunk Northern Rock while simultaneously arguing against any regulation of the banking industry, and then begged for government handouts? Since you like clicking on links here's a couple which do a pretty good job of debunking Ridley's hypocritical Randian world view: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2007/oct/23/comment.business and again http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/may/31/state-market-nothern-rock-ridley

Offline RojoLeón

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Re: On demanding unending GDP growth
« Reply #34 on: October 31, 2012, 08:35:43 pm »
Yes - that doesn't sound bitchy at all RJ.

Devon -  i knew it wouldn't be long before you came bounding to RJ's defence. if you scan back to the beginning of the thread you will see how I have provide a video link with simple to understand terms for you to view with plenty of evidence, facts and figures that addresses the topic of the thread rather than RJ's tedious straw-men arguments. If only someone would enforce some emissions regulations for you two! :)

Watched video. He does not mention the 'unprecedented hydrocarbon boom' elephant in the room. Can you address this? perhaps he forgot that everything in that room, from the stage, screen and lights, to the food in his belly came via hydrocarbon energy conversion.

There will be new inventions, ideas will produce new technologies - this I have no issue with. What is the fuel source?

Can you read the USD physics professor article I linked above, and tell us where he is wrong?


Ideas are great and we would not have got as far as we have without them. Energy was required to make them work: Thermodynamics.

The more efficiently one converts a fuel into work, the more you can do. As we are running out of high ratio, net energy gain sources, what lies around the corner?

Are hydrocarbons infinite in supply? Assuming they are (effectively), are net energy gain hydrocarbons infinite? You realize the fundamental relationship between 'work in' and 'work out'.

If they are not, what will replace them? What will plough the fields, refrigerate the food, deliver and cook it for consumption?

Will this energy be a fuel cell, or another form of thermal combustion, conversion process?

What will fuel this, and will that supply be finite/infinite? 

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Re: On demanding unending GDP growth
« Reply #35 on: October 31, 2012, 08:43:33 pm »

Wow. You have blown all his arguments out of the water because he was the non-exec chairman of Northern Rock. I nearly choked on my polar bear sandwich!
I know you struggle with reading comprehension Carlitos, but do try to pay attention

Offline Carlos: Very Kickable

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Re: On demanding unending GDP growth
« Reply #36 on: October 31, 2012, 08:56:16 pm »

As i've mentioned twice already RJ you love putting up straw man arguments. The thread is about increasing GDP not about Energy Ratios which is a (straw man) subject you have introduced.

I don't know what the new mix of energies is going to be but the whole of human history has pointed to a progression in our living standards and population numbers through the use of innovation and technology - a trend that is only increasing in time with improvements in communication.
You want examples and proof of our progress you can start with the past three centuries. And no - it's not all about oil production. Perhaps we will greatly increase our nuclear capacity, use solar, geothermal, wind and wave - maybe we will ally improved healthcare with genetically modified crop technology or improve agricultural and work practices with technology and communications but one thing is for sure - we will find a way - as we did last decade - and the one before that and the one before that ad infinitum. The graph you yourself provided shows an increase in our population way after peak oil was meant to have run out - but of course that hasn't occurred to you.

So cheer up. Your children will have a better life than you and Devon - hopefully they will be better educated. 
I know you struggle with reading comprehension Carlitos, but do try to pay attention

Offline RojoLeón

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Re: On demanding unending GDP growth
« Reply #37 on: October 31, 2012, 09:59:01 pm »
The TED speaker's narrative is 'how clever we are': How things became as they are due to clever people, evolving ideas. Where is the mention of high ratio EROEI? Rapid, 20th century growth is due to one thing - Oil.

Can you discount the role hydrocarbon energy played in this - he doesn't mention it at all. All of the things he discusses are relevant, but without the context of energy supply: None of it holds up without factoring in thermodynamics.

Care to refute the role our Oil/Coal/gas have played in population, and corresponding economic growth?

I don't know what the new mix of energies is going to be

You don't know, and neither do I. Honesty is the best place to start.

And no - it's not all about oil production. Perhaps we will greatly increase our nuclear capacity, use solar, geothermal, wind and wave - maybe we will ally improved healthcare with genetically modified crop technology or improve agricultural and work practices with technology and communications but one thing is for sure - we will find a way - as we did last decade - and the one before that and the one before that ad infinitum.

What is actually going to replace the high, net gain ratios of Oil?
(Oil is the biggie - even Coal and gas can't touch oil for it's versatility as fuel for thermal combustion and it's massive relative energy output.)

Nuclear? Guess again - what is going to fuel the agricultural machinery and food distribution vehicles? Also, is finite and massively subsidized - the UK taxpayer is still paying nuclear industry subsidies from the 1970's and earlier. It won't be enough for just domestic electricity anyway as the fuels is itself a finite mineral that requires massive amounts of hydrocarbon processing and refining.
Private capital won't touch new nuclear builds without socialized, tax payer support and underwritten liability for any failures.

Solar? Currently not enough EROEI. Needs much higher efficiency and currently uses some hard to source minerals (which themselves are finite). We are one of the best examples of Solar energy conversion - everything we do is as a result of it.

Wind and Wave? We need to keep increasing their research and design to improve efficiency and rates of return. We have had windmills before btw. Are they enough to mill the grain to feed our current planetary population?

Geothermal? Fixed and location dependent.

A blend of the above is possible. But there is nothing on the horizon to replace Oil. GM crops are not going to engineer biofuels out of thin air - biochemistry says they require solar energy and nutrients, regardless of any new design. All of this assumes that the energy in, is less than the energy out - currently (based on existing biofuel tech) we are spending more than a barrel oil, to produce a barrel of oils worth of energy from biofuel. It has a negative EROEI. And it is less efficient for thermal combustion than gasoline.

Improve working efficiencies is mandatory for any kind of adaptation - we are still too wasteful - but it does not address the huge drop off when you eliminate hydrocarbons (particularly oil).

I admire the optimism that 'we will find a way'. We have sometimes, through history, found the way. And maybe we will again. Currently, we need a new way and current methods and technologies are insufficient. We must try harder.

the whole of human history has pointed to a progression in our living standards and population numbers through the use of innovation and technology - a trend that is only increasing in time with improvements in communication.

No, it hasn't. Archeology points towards there being ups and downs. Things like modern medicine insulate us from disasters like the plague, other pandemics and the massive, relative attrition rate from warfare. Empires rose and fell. There has not been linear, upwards progression through the years - disease, natural disasters and war have brought humanity low, time and time again. These things are cyclical.

And disribution of these medicines and refrigeration, pesticides, fertalizers (along with their manufacture) requires energy.

The graph you yourself provided shows an increase in our population way after peak oil was meant to have run out - but of course that hasn't occurred to you.

Peak oil represents the peak in terms of EROEI, not when supply will run out. And the economies of the west are staked, all in as regards gasoline. Hence the resource wars in the Middle East. Population increase rates will slow at first (net population increasing but not as quickly), but there will be a tipping point where food becomes cost prohibitive for first the poor, then others further up the socioeconomic food chain.

The thread is about increasing GDP not about Energy Ratios

Yes. And the two things are intricately linked. The modern economy is backed by oil. In the past was gold, or other precious materials - labour, gems, water, food, etc..

Oil-Dollars are what underwrites currency trading. That Spiegel gif of the global financial markets shows the hugely inflated speculation on currency derivatives.

When you talk about modern economics without addressing the currency value underwriting that supports the whole house of cards, you are not discussing reality.

Now, for the sake of argument: Oil is infinate and renewable - then the economy will continue to ebb and flow, but follow a general upward trend. other limiting factors will eventually slow and halt growth.

But if it is not, then what will replace the Oil-Standard? The economy will not continue to grow if confidence on its supply and availability reduces.

Indefinite growth is a physical fallacy - we are limited by the confines of the sand box in which we play.

Until we invent magic free energy beans, then we are discussing when, not if, growth will stop.
« Last Edit: October 31, 2012, 10:05:17 pm by RojoLeón »

Offline hide5seek

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Re: On demanding unending GDP growth
« Reply #38 on: October 31, 2012, 11:52:05 pm »
As i've mentioned twice already RJ you love putting up straw man arguments. The thread is about increasing GDP not about Energy Ratios which is a (straw man) subject you have introduced.

I don't know what the new mix of energies is going to be but the whole of human history has pointed to a progression in our living standards and population numbers through the use of innovation and technology - a trend that is only increasing in time with improvements in communication.
You want examples and proof of our progress you can start with the past three centuries. And no - it's not all about oil production. Perhaps we will greatly increase our nuclear capacity, use solar, geothermal, wind and wave - maybe we will ally improved healthcare with genetically modified crop technology or improve agricultural and work practices with technology and communications but one thing is for sure - we will find a way - as we did last decade - and the one before that and the one before that ad infinitum. The graph you yourself provided shows an increase in our population way after peak oil was meant to have run out - but of course that hasn't occurred to you.

So cheer up. Your children will have a better life than you and Devon - hopefully they will be better educated. 

Has all of that helped African nations?

Offline Conocinico

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Re: On demanding unending GDP growth
« Reply #39 on: November 1, 2012, 12:21:14 am »
Nuclear? Guess again - what is going to fuel the agricultural machinery and food distribution vehicles? Also, is finite and massively subsidized - the UK taxpayer is still paying nuclear industry subsidies from the 1970's and earlier. It won't be enough for just domestic electricity anyway as the fuels is itself a finite mineral that requires massive amounts of hydrocarbon processing and refining.
Private capital won't touch new nuclear builds without socialized, tax payer support and underwritten liability for any failures.

I would imagine the nuclear option has the greatest potential as the future energy source. I don't see any challenge which you've listed that can't be overcome by improvements in safety and technology. True it is a finite resource but there's a relative abundance of Uranium recoverable so exhaustion isn't a problem for the foreseeable future.
This sentence is not provable