Topic: Climate Emergency is already here. How much worse it gets is still up to us (?)

[Bioluminescence]

One of the problems is people have been hearing about the end of the planet because of climate change for years now, im 50 and i can remember these warnings from when i was in my teens. Sooner or later people just tune out and don't hear it anymore. Not saying it's right but that's the reality and most folk just worry about the next bill they can't afford too pay not 30 years down the track.

I doubt that we have 30 years at this point - it's already affecting food and water supplies as well as strengthening extreme weather events. The sad thing is that we wouldn't be where we are without a decades-long campaign to manufacture doubt and spread disinformation. Exxon's own research shows that they knew the issues in the 1960-70s, and their own scientists recommended looking at alternative energy sources. Instead they and others buried these results and spend billions lying to us so that no action was taken. So here we are. Apathy serves them well.

[Nobby Reserve]

Maybe if they were allowed to develop properly they could afford to have a big family. Don't think the US or UK or any other European countries stop you from having a bit family.

The west imo are trying to say how and when the rest of the world develops and are doing so under the guise of “preserving biodiversity” and “sustainability”.

We burnt and plundered to get where we are and yet we have the cheek to try and stop the rest of the developing world the chance to get up to speed because its affecting our cushy lifestyles.

It fucking stinks to high heaven mate.

The West is more saying "if every country develops to the level western countries have, then the entire planet is fucked"

Oh, and guess which countries and populations will be most and earliest affected by the impacts of climate change?

Is it fair or moral?

No. But then nature and science is without conscience.


FWIW, the sensible option would be to form huge regional cooperative blocs for energy where countries use their natural 'resources' of sun, wind & hydro to generate clean electricity, which is all publicly owned and shared amongst the populations of all member countries.

But that will never happen because human greed has created a world where shysterism rules and a small financial/corporate elite *need* to make profits to line their pockets.

[Red-Soldier]

World ‘population bomb’ may never go off as feared, finds study

Population likely to peak sooner and lower than expected with beneficial results – but environment is priority

The long-feared “population bomb” may not go off, according to the authors of a new report that estimates that human numbers will peak lower and sooner than previously forecast.

The study, commissioned by the Club of Rome, projects that on current trends the world population will reach a high of 8.8 billion before the middle of the century, then decline rapidly. The peak could come earlier still if governments take progressive steps to raise average incomes and education levels.

The new forecasts are good news for the global environment. Once the demographic bulge is overcome, pressure on nature and the climate should start to ease, along with associated social and political tensions.

But the authors caution that falling birthrates alone will not solve the planet’s environmental problems, which are already serious at the 7.8 billion level and are primarily caused by the excess consumption of a wealthy minority.

Declining populations can also create new problems, such as a shrinking workforce and greater stress on healthcare associated with an ageing society, as countries like Japan and South Korea are finding.

One of the authors of the report, Ben Callegari, said the findings were cause for optimism – but there was a catch. “This gives us evidence to believe the population bomb won’t go off, but we still face significant challenges from an environmental perspective. We need a lot of effort to address the current development paradigm of overconsumption and overproduction, which are bigger problems than population.”

Previous studies have painted a grimmer picture. Last year, the UN estimated the world population would hit 9.7 billion by the middle of the century and continue to rise for several decades afterwards.

The new projection, released on Monday, was carried out by the Earth4All collective of leading environmental science and economic institutions, including the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Stockholm Resilience Centre and the BI Norwegian Business School. They were commissioned by the Club of Rome for a followup to its seminal Limits to Growth study more than 50 years ago.

The report is based on a new methodology which incorporates social and economic factors that have a proven impact on birthrate, such as raising education levels, particularly for women, and improving income. It sketches out two scenarios depending on the extent to which such policies are pursued.

In the business-as-usual case, it foresees existing policies being enough to limit global population growth to below 9 billion in 2046 and then decline to 7.3 billion in 2100. This, they warn, is too little too late: “Although the scenario does not result in an overt ecological or total climate collapse, the likelihood of regional societal collapses nevertheless rises throughout the decades to 2050, as a result of deepening social divisions both internal to and between societies. The risk is particularly acute in the most vulnerable, badly governed and ecologically vulnerable economies.”

In the second, more optimistic scenario – with governments across the world raising taxes on the wealthy to invest in education, social services and improved equality – it estimates human numbers could hit a high of 8.5 billion as early as 2040 and then fall by about a third to about 6 billion in 2100. Under this pathway, they foresee considerable gains by mid-century for human society and the natural environment.

“By 2050, greenhouse gas emissions are about 90% lower than they were in 2020 and are still falling,” according to the report. “Remaining atmospheric emissions of greenhouse gases from industrial processes are increasingly removed through carbon capture and storage. As the century progresses, more carbon is captured than stored, keeping the global temperature below 2C above pre-industrial levels. Wildlife is gradually recovering and starting to thrive once again in many places.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/27/world-population-bomb-may-never-go-off-as-feared-finds-study

[A Red Abroad]

So... if you were placing a bet...

This?

In the business-as-usual case, it foresees existing policies being enough to limit global population growth to below 9 billion in 2046 and then decline to 7.3 billion in 2100. This, they warn, is too little too late: “Although the scenario does not result in an overt ecological or total climate collapse, the likelihood of regional societal collapses nevertheless rises throughout the decades to 2050, as a result of deepening social divisions both internal to and between societies. The risk is particularly acute in the most vulnerable, badly governed and ecologically vulnerable economies.”



Or this?

In the second, more optimistic scenario – with governments across the world raising taxes on the wealthy to invest in education, social services and improved equality – it estimates human numbers could hit a high of 8.5 billion as early as 2040 and then fall by about a third to about 6 billion in 2100. Under this pathway, they foresee considerable gains by mid-century for human society and the natural environment.

[Red-Soldier]

So... if you were placing a bet...

This?

In the business-as-usual case, it foresees existing policies being enough to limit global population growth to below 9 billion in 2046 and then decline to 7.3 billion in 2100. This, they warn, is too little too late: “Although the scenario does not result in an overt ecological or total climate collapse, the likelihood of regional societal collapses nevertheless rises throughout the decades to 2050, as a result of deepening social divisions both internal to and between societies. The risk is particularly acute in the most vulnerable, badly governed and ecologically vulnerable economies.”



Or this?

In the second, more optimistic scenario – with governments across the world raising taxes on the wealthy to invest in education, social services and improved equality – it estimates human numbers could hit a high of 8.5 billion as early as 2040 and then fall by about a third to about 6 billion in 2100. Under this pathway, they foresee considerable gains by mid-century for human society and the natural environment.

Call me a cynic, but I'd put all my money on Option 1. 

[A Red Abroad]

Call me a cynic, but I'd put all my money on Option 1. 

I concur. 

[Robinred]

I think this is a must-read from Monbiot in today’s Guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/mar/29/uk-green-day-fossil-fuel-dirty-money-sunak-renewables?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

[Red-Soldier]

I think this is a must-read from Monbiot in today’s Guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/mar/29/uk-green-day-fossil-fuel-dirty-money-sunak-renewables?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

I've been saying this for awhile now.  Both the Republicans and Tories are funded by fossil fuel companies/Big Oil.  These political parties will not act in the interests of the planet or wider society.

They really are a threat to nature and the majority of humanity.

[Nobby Reserve]

I think this is a must-read from Monbiot in today’s Guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/mar/29/uk-green-day-fossil-fuel-dirty-money-sunak-renewables?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

One really annoying aspect of that report is the bit about house-building.

Gordon Brown set out a new law that would force all new homes built from 2016 to meet higher environmental standards.

The majority of the property sector had railed against this as increasing their costs (they would find it difficult to hike the prices they charged buyers)

Cameron scrapped this in 2015.

The Tory Party receives around 20% of its funding from the property sector

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jul/10/uk-scraps-zero-carbon-home-target
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/dark-money-investigations/20-tory-donations-come-property-tycoons/

[Robinred]

Radio 4 has this last week, and continues to, broadcast a series of programmes - ‘Rental Health’, which highlight the problems for U.K rental tenants. I listened to a broadcast last Friday from Vienna, which starkly contrasted the situation there with London. Essentially, the Vienna City authorities demand from developers that 2/3 of all new developments are affordable, subsidised housing. The spokesman summed up the city’s approach by confirming its view that housing is a human right, alongside all other basic human rights.

Tonight’s BBC news carried a story which claimed the number of homes available for rent has fallen by a 1/3 over the past 18 months, while rents have risen an average of 11% over that period. There has also been a rise in ‘no-fault’ evictions of 34% - despite Government claims that they would tighten legislation to stamp out such practices.

The number of MPs who are private landlords rose last year to 27%, 7 of whom were cabinet ministers.

Food for thought.

[Nobby Reserve]

Radio 4 has this last week, and continues to, broadcast a series of programmes - ‘Rental Health’, which highlight the problems for U.K rental tenants. I listened to a broadcast last Friday from Vienna, which starkly contrasted the situation there with London. Essentially, the Vienna City authorities demand from developers that 2/3 of all new developments are affordable, subsidised housing. The spokesman summed up the city’s approach by confirming its view that housing is a human right, alongside all other basic human rights.

Tonight’s BBC news carried a story which claimed the number of homes available for rent has fallen by a 1/3 over the past 18 months, while rents have risen an average of 11% over that period. There has also been a rise in ‘no-fault’ evictions of 34% - despite Government claims that they would tighten legislation to stamp out such practices.

The number of MPs who are private landlords rose last year to 27%, 7 of whom were cabinet ministers.

Food for thought.

The only 'human right' that matters to Tories is the 'human right' for a financial elite to chisel a profit

[Nobby Reserve]

German government, acting on behalf of German car giants, has successfully pressured the EU to drop it's proposed total ban on new ICE cars by 2035.

They're going to allow the fudge/con of 'e-fuels'. These are so-called synthetic or bio fuels, used to fire ICE's. They still pollute and still put GHGs into the atmosphere (mainly via their production)

Humans are imbeciles.

It's legislating to force big business to innovate, which is going to progress humanity. But, as ever, protecting profits (to benefit a financial elite) is the priority.

[Red-Soldier]

World leading:

UK is Europe’s worst private jet polluter, study finds

UK tops all league tables for highly polluting form of travel, with a flight taking off every six minutes last year

The UK is the private jet capital of Europe, with more flights than anywhere else on the continent, analysis has found.

Last year, a private jet set off from the UK once every six minutes, putting the country ahead of the rest of Europe when it comes to the extremely polluting form of travel. Many of these journeys have been called “polluting and pointless” by Greenpeace, as they are so short they could have easily been taken by train – and in one case, cycled in 30 minutes.

The analysis by the Dutch environmental consultancy CE Delft also found that the number of private jets taking off from the UK increased by 75% between 2021 and 2022 to 90,256 flights, emitting 500,000 tonnes of CO2 – more than in any other European country.

The UK tops all league tables for private jets, boasting the busiest route, the most polluting route and the most flights overall. Flights between London and Paris were the most popular route, accounting for 3,357 flights, and six of the top 10 routes overall also included London.

According to a Transport & Environment study, private jets are five to 14 times more polluting than commercial planes per passenger, and 50 times more polluting than trains. Previous research found that 50% of all aviation emissions were caused by 1% of the world’s population.

The use of private jets appears to be rising. The research found that private jet traffic across Europe rose from 350,000 flights in 2021 to more than 570,000 in 2022, with a heavy impact on emissions. The associated CO2 emissions more than doubled over the same period to more than 3.3m tonnes.

Environmental campaigners at Greenpeace are calling for a ban on private jet travel, highlighting that the research shows almost one-in-four (39%) private jet flights in Europe were considered “very short-haul” meaning they were less than 310 miles (500km) and could easily have been train trips.

There were also some staggeringly inefficient routes found in the analysis. A flight between Blackbushe and Farnborough in Hampshire – which is just 4.6 miles (7.4km) – topped the charts for the most carbon-intensive route in 2021 and 2022. This is because it takes less than 30 minutes to cycle between the two airports.

Doug Parr, the policy director at Greenpeace UK, said: “Private jets are staggeringly polluting and generally pointless. Many of these journeys can be covered almost as quickly by train, and some of them by bicycle.

“Millions of people around the world are facing climate chaos, losing livelihoods or worse, while a tiny minority are burning jet fuel like there’s no tomorrow. If the government is serious about net zero and a fair transition to low-carbon transport, then private jets should be first on the chopping block.”

Caroline Lucas, the Green party MP for Brighton Pavilion, said: “Private jets are the climate-wrecking preserve of the mega-rich. So it’s no surprise that a government – run by millionaires, for millionaires – is allowing privileged private jet flyers to flourish at the expense of people and planet.

“If the government’s not prepared to ban private jets, then at the very least it should be levying a super tax on private jet travel, and use those proceeds to fund the transition to a green economy.”

[/b]

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/30/uk-is-worst-private-jet-polluter-in-europe-study-finds

[Andy @ Allerton!]

Me and the missus decided not to have kids. We do get on flights and the like but overall we're better for the climate than any person with kids.

Because your kids will have kids who will have kids who will have kids who will have kids.

Wow. I'm an Eco-dude! Nice.

[Nobby Reserve]

World leading:

UK is Europe’s worst private jet polluter, study finds

UK tops all league tables for highly polluting form of travel, with a flight taking off every six minutes last year
[/b]

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/30/uk-is-worst-private-jet-polluter-in-europe-study-finds

We have a situation in this country where public services are crumbling and the vast majority are feeling poorer.

Yet overall there is more money in the UK than ever, and we have the highest use of private jets in Europe.

You join the dots and it's easy to link it to the fact that wealth inequality, especially between the very wealthy and the rest of use, continues to widen.

[Nobby Reserve]

Me and the missus decided not to have kids. We do get on flights and the like but overall we're better for the climate than any person with kids.

You can save the whataboutery cos this isn't aimed at people using commercial flights.

It's about private jets



(I'm making the assumption you don't take a Lear Jet for your jolly to 'Marbs')

[A Red Abroad]

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/xqwMrrAD7qo" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/xqwMrrAD7qo</a>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xqwMrrAD7qo

[A Red Abroad]

George Monbiot interview - 49 minutes.

Scary as f*ck! and (slightly) hopeful at the same time... ignore (or not) the Brandt stuff... the 'eco'/'farming' info is so interesting.

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/xdk8cb_8JtE&amp;t=85s" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/xdk8cb_8JtE&amp;t=85s</a>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdk8cb_8JtE&t=85s

[Red-Soldier]

Revealed: UAE plans huge oil and gas expansion as it hosts UN climate summit

Exclusive: UAE’s fossil fuel boss will be the president of Cop28, making a mockery of the summit, say campaigners

The United Arab Emirates, which is hosting this year’s UN climate summit, has the third biggest net zero-busting plans for oil and gas expansion in the world, the Guardian can reveal. Its plans are surpassed only by Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

The CEO of the UAE’s national oil company, Adnoc, has been controversially appointed president of the UN’s Cop28 summit in December, which is seen as crucial with time running out to end the climate crisis. But Sultan Al Jaber is overseeing expansion to produce oil and gas equivalent to 7.5bn barrels of oil, according to new data, 90% of which would have to remain in the ground to meet the net zero scenario set out by the International Energy Agency.

Adnoc is the world’s 11th biggest oil and gas producer and delivered more than a billion barrels of oil equivalent (BBOE) in 2021. However, the company has big short-term expansion plans, the new analysis shows, with plans to add 7.6 BBOE to its production portfolio in the coming years – the fifth largest increase in the world.

The data was produced for the Guardian by Urgewald, a German NGO, from its Gogel database. This is based on data from Rystad Energy, the industry standard source but not available to the public, and accessed in September 2022.

In November 2022, Adnoc announced a $150bn investment over five years to enable an “accelerated growth strategy” for oil and gas production. Independent experts rate the UAE’s climate targets and policies as “highly insufficient”, while the UN secretary general recently called for the “ceasing [of] all licensing or funding of new oil and gas”.

Recent statements by Al Jaber also appear difficult to reconcile with Adnoc’s huge plans for new oil and gas production. At a “Road to Cop28” conference in Dubai on 15 March, Al Jaber said: “We [the world] have to rapidly reduce emissions.” The following day, at an International Energy Agency roundtable event, he said: “Oil and gas companies need to align around net zero.” In February, Al Jaber said: “We in the UAE are not shying away from the energy transition. We are running towards it.”

Just 10% of Adnoc’s expansion is compatible with the IEA’s scenario for the world to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050. The IEA said the 2050 goal requires no new oil and gas projects to be approved after 2021, but 90% of the oil and gas expansion being planned by Adnoc were advanced after this date and would have to stay in the ground to be compatible.

Adnoc’s “overshoot” of the IEA net zero scenario is therefore 6.8bn BBOE, the third largest worldwide. Saudi Aramco has the largest overshoot, with 11.4 BBOE, and QatarEnergy is second with 7.6 BBOE.

The short-term expansion plans included in the analysis are fields in which production and operation plans are being developed, the final investment decision has been taken or wells are being drilled before the start of production. Fields in these categories normally begin pumping oil and gas within seven years. The Gogel database includes 901 companies that explore for and produce oil and gas, and covers 97% of short-term expansion plans.

Some of the largest developments that are not in line with the IEA net zero scenario will take place as part of the Upper Zakum project, off the coast of the UEA. Adnoc describes the extension of production in the Upper Zakum field as a “mega-project” and the “second-largest offshore oilfield in the world”. It involves “the construction of four artificial islands in shallow water [which] can accommodate 450 wells, 90 platforms, as well as drilling rigs, processing facilities, and infrastructure,” Adnoc said.

Independent experts at Climate Action Tracker have concluded that the UEA’s fossil fuel expansion plans are not consistent with limiting global heating to 1.5C and rate the UAE’s climate targets and policies as “highly insufficient”. The recent major report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, approved by all the world’s governments, warned that the carbon emissions from the world’s already existing fossil fuel projects would alone be enough to drive the climate past 1.5C.

Nils Bartsch at Urgewald said: “The new data shows the appointment of Sultan Al Jaber as president of Cop28 is a mockery of Cop as an institution. Appointing an oil and gas executive as Cop president displays a complete lack of awareness of the problems at hand. It is a fatal political signal to the world.”

“The climate emergency needs actions, not words,” said Tasneem Essop, executive director of Climate Action Network International. “While Al Jaber has been calling for bold actions to stay below 1.5C, his deeds do not match his rhetoric. His conflicting role as CEO of Adnoc begs the question: is Al Jaber able to play an objective role in securing an ambitious outcome at Cop28, which makes it clear there can be no new fossil fuel projects?”

Essop, and other campaigners, have called for Al Jaber to resign from his Adnoc role, with some comparing his presidency of Cop28 as “putting the head of a tobacco company in charge of negotiating an anti-smoking treaty”. Others involved in UN climate talks have been less frank, given the likely need to work with Al Jaber in future.

Laurence Tubiana, a former French diplomat and leading architect of the Paris climate agreement in 2015, said: “All countries and energy companies must heed the IEA and the IPCC’s warnings or risk compromising decades of diplomatic efforts as well as our collective security on this planet.

“The Cop28 presidency bears huge responsibility to show the way in bridging the gap between the Paris goals and today’s insufficient climate plans,” she said. ”As a major oil exporter, this is the UAE’s chance to demonstrate what post-fossil leadership looks like.”

Christiana Figueres, the UN’s top climate official when the Paris deal was signed, said: “We know that the UAE is an economy based on hydrocarbons and we also know there is now no room for new fossil fuels. While it is not easy for Dr Sultan, it is important for the president of every Cop to be science-driven and I hope the UAE will take the leadership opportunity this presents.”

A spokesperson for Adnoc said: “The world requires a diverse mix of solutions to accelerate the energy transition while ensuring sustainable economic development and meeting growing global energy demand. With the world’s population expected to grow to more than 8.5 billion by 2030, we are investing in capacity to enable us to meet future demand with some of the least carbon-intensive barrels available.

“Adnoc will remain a responsible and reliable supplier of energy, laser focused on reducing the carbon intensity of every barrel it produces and continue to contribute to global emissions’ reduction through its expansion into new energies,” the spokesperson said. The carbon intensity of oil or gas is the CO2 emitted per unit in producing the fuel and does not include the far greater emissions generated when the fuel is burned.

Al Jaber is also UAE’s special envoy for climate change, but a request for comment did not receive a response. He is also the founding CEO of Masdar, a government-owned renewable energy company. It says it is one of the largest developers of renewable energy projects in the world and has invested more than $30bn (£24.2bn) in mainly solar and wind power projects since 2006.

Alden Meyer at the thinktank E3G, who has attended the UN climate talks since they began in 1991, said Al Jaber’s presidency of Cop28 and CEO role at Adnoc “clearly does pose a conflict of interest”. Meyer said: “Perhaps Dr Al Jaber is positioned to be the one that finally pushes the oil and gas industry to get with the [clean energy] transition. But I’m sceptical.”

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/apr/04/revealed-uae-plans-huge-oil-and-gas-expansion-as-it-hosts-un-climate-summit

[Nobby Reserve]

Revealed: UAE plans huge oil and gas expansion as it hosts UN climate summit

Exclusive: UAE’s fossil fuel boss will be the president of Cop28, making a mockery of the summit, say campaigners

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/apr/04/revealed-uae-plans-huge-oil-and-gas-expansion-as-it-hosts-un-climate-summit

Wonder how many brown envelopes were involved in them being awarded the COP28 gig?

From sportwashing to greenwashing.

[Indomitable_Carp]

I know the impact of population growth vs the effects of wasteful "developed-world" lifestyles has been a frequent discussion on here. So thought it was worth posting this:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/apr/10/swimming-pools-rich-driving-city-water-crises

The swimming pools, well-watered gardens and clean cars of the rich are driving water crises in cities at least as much as the climate emergency or population growth, according to an analysis.

The researchers said the vast difference in water use between rich and poor citizens had been largely overlooked in seeking solutions to water shortages, with the focus instead on attempts to increase supply and higher prices for water. They said the only way to protect water supplies was by redistributing water resources more equally.

The study used Cape Town in South Africa as a case study and found the richest people used 50 times more water than the poorest. When the Day Zero water crisis struck the city in 2018, after several years of drought, the poorest were left without enough water for their basic needs, the scientists said.

Cape Town was far from unique, the researchers said, with similar problems in many cities around the world. Since 2000, more than 80 big cities had experienced extreme drought and water shortages, they said, including Miami, Melbourne, London, Barcelona, São Paulo, Beijing, Bengaluru and Harare.

The researchers said urban water crises were expected to become more frequent, with more than 1 billion city dwellers expected to experience water shortages in the near future. In March, a report by the Global Commission on the Economics of Water concluded that the world faces an imminent water crisis, with demand expected to outstrip supply by 40% by 2030.

Prof Hannah Cloke, at the University of Reading, UK, and co-author of the new study, said: “Climate change and population growth mean that water is becoming a more precious resource in big cities, but we have shown that social inequality is the biggest problem for poorer people getting access to water for their everyday needs.

“Our projections show this crisis could get worse as the gap between the rich and the poor widens in many parts of the world. Ultimately, everyone will suffer the consequences unless we develop fairer ways to share water in cities.”

The study, published in the journal Nature Sustainability, used data to develop a model of city water use that took account of different income levels. In Cape Town, it found the richest group – 14% of the city’s population – used 51% of the water consumed in the city. In contrast, the poorest group – 62% of the population – used just 27% of the water. Most of the water used the richest group was for non-basic needs.

I've just come back from Chile after visiting my wifes family. I can confirm the water usage in the rich neighbourhoods of Santiago (which gets about tens days of rain a year) versus the poor neighbourhoods is obscene. In the rich barrios, sprinklers watering grass verges are a nightly ocurrance, to the extent you are walking through puddles on the pavement. That's not facturing in grassy gardens, and in the very richer areas, swimming pools. The poor barrios don't have grass, because the Santiago valley is not meant to have grass.....

(I do appreciate the irony of preaching from my long-haul flight )

[Bioluminescence]

I know the impact of population growth vs the effects of wasteful "developed-world" lifestyles has been a frequent discussion on here. So thought it was worth posting this:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/apr/10/swimming-pools-rich-driving-city-water-crises

I've just come back from Chile after visiting my wifes family. I can confirm the water usage in the rich neighbourhoods of Santiago (which gets about tens days of rain a year) versus the poor neighbourhoods is obscene. In the rich barrios, sprinklers watering grass verges are a nightly ocurrance, to the extent you are walking through puddles on the pavement. That's not facturing in grassy gardens, and in the very richer areas, swimming pools. The poor barrios don't have grass, because the Santiago valley is not meant to have grass.....

(I do appreciate the irony of preaching from my long-haul flight )

I remember reading a while ago that part of the problem in Chile is that water rights are treated as private property, something that goes back to the Pinochet dictatorship and is actually written into their constitution, or at least was until recently. I think there were talks of changing that. I remember reading about whole lakes disappearing, wiping away the tourism industry and other opportunities to make a living in certain areas. Combined with the climate crisis it's made the situation in Chile pretty awful. Would that sound right?

[Indomitable_Carp]

I remember reading a while ago that part of the problem in Chile is that water rights are treated as private property, something that goes back to the Pinochet dictatorship and is actually written into their constitution, or at least was until recently. I think there were talks of changing that. I remember reading about whole lakes disappearing, wiping away the tourism industry and other opportunities to make a living in certain areas. Combined with the climate crisis it's made the situation in Chile pretty awful. Would that sound right?

That has certainly been a massive problem in regions where they are heavy into mining extraction and water-intensive agriculture (for example all those avocados they export to Europe). The constitution has been a massive issue over the last 3.5 years since the "Estallido Social" at the end of 2019. This is the first time I've been back since just after that kicked off. And yes, the dictatorship-era constitution is unique in basically enforcing the neoliberal privatisation of many public services, from water, to healthcare, education and a whole lot more. But I digress.

Regarding Santiago more specifically, it is a dry region in general and always has been. It never has had much rainfall. Problem is that rainfall has fallen from maybe 20 odd days a year, to around 10. Not only that, but the snow melt that would normally fall in from the Andes has also slowed to a trickle even in spring. Leaving an already dry valley even dryer. The problem is that, in Santiago, and many other places in the developing and developed world more generally, the model of development and aspiration for the up-and-coming and rich classes is US-style suburbia, complete with massive 4x4s, grassy verges, grassy lawns, and swimming pools. That simply isn't sustainable in near desert conditons (it isn't even sustainable in the USA) - but that doesn't stop them from trying. Unfortunately, it is heavily embedded in the mindset, itself partly a result of Pinochets form of neoliberal-capitalist worship.

[Nobby Reserve]

That has certainly been a massive problem in regions where they are heavy into mining extraction and water-intensive agriculture (for example all those avocados they export to Europe). The constitution has been a massive issue over the last 3.5 years since the "Estallido Social" at the end of 2019. This is the first time I've been back since just after that kicked off. And yes, the dictatorship-era constitution is unique in basically enforcing the neoliberal privatisation of many public services, from water, to healthcare, education and a whole lot more. But I digress.

Regarding Santiago more specifically, it is a dry region in general and always has been. It never has had much rainfall. Problem is that rainfall has fallen from maybe 20 odd days a year, to around 10. Not only that, but the snow melt that would normally fall in from the Andes has also slowed to a trickle even in spring. Leaving an already dry valley even dryer. The problem is that, in Santiago, and many other places in the developing and developed world more generally, the model of development and aspiration for the up-and-coming and rich classes is US-style suburbia, complete with massive 4x4s, grassy verges, grassy lawns, and swimming pools. That simply isn't sustainable in near desert conditons (it isn't even sustainable in the USA) - but that doesn't stop them from trying. Unfortunately, it is heavily embedded in the mindset, itself partly a result of Pinochets form of neoliberal-capitalist worship.

I find it fascinating to read these sort of microcosms of direct impacts. The frivolous water use is crazy, isn't it? You can bet, though, that if there is a crackdown on things like watering lawns/having swimming pools, the powers-that-be will start clamping down on the lower-middle classes, then the wider middle-classes, with the super-wealthy the last to be affected.

[Bioluminescence]

That has certainly been a massive problem in regions where they are heavy into mining extraction and water-intensive agriculture (for example all those avocados they export to Europe). The constitution has been a massive issue over the last 3.5 years since the "Estallido Social" at the end of 2019. This is the first time I've been back since just after that kicked off. And yes, the dictatorship-era constitution is unique in basically enforcing the neoliberal privatisation of many public services, from water, to healthcare, education and a whole lot more. But I digress.

Regarding Santiago more specifically, it is a dry region in general and always has been. It never has had much rainfall. Problem is that rainfall has fallen from maybe 20 odd days a year, to around 10. Not only that, but the snow melt that would normally fall in from the Andes has also slowed to a trickle even in spring. Leaving an already dry valley even dryer. The problem is that, in Santiago, and many other places in the developing and developed world more generally, the model of development and aspiration for the up-and-coming and rich classes is US-style suburbia, complete with massive 4x4s, grassy verges, grassy lawns, and swimming pools. That simply isn't sustainable in near desert conditons (it isn't even sustainable in the USA) - but that doesn't stop them from trying. Unfortunately, it is heavily embedded in the mindset, itself partly a result of Pinochets form of neoliberal-capitalist worship.

I echo Nobby's words - very interesting investigation into local problems, thank you for providing that information. I'm not sure how much a change in the constitution would help here. I just checked and apparently El Niños bring some relief in parts of Chile with additional rainfall and warmer temperatures. Hopefully that will ease some of the problems in the country if El Niño develops as expected. But obviously it's not a longer term solution if nothing changes in terms of aspiration.

[Bioluminescence]

Interesting article in the Guardian - Swimming pools of the right driving city water crises, study says. These two paragraphs in particular stand out:

The model, which could be applied to other cities, showed that changes in water use by the richest group had a bigger impact on overall water availability than changes in population or droughts related to the climate crisis. The researchers also said increased use of private boreholes in times of shortage by the richest citizens substantially depleted groundwater resources.

The scientists said failing to account for social inequality in a water crisis often led to technocratic solutions that simply reproduced the uneven and unsustainable water use patterns that contributed to the water crisis in the first place.

[A Red Abroad]

Feargal Sharkey. I found this informative - and quite worrying.

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/F9XKiaA9qNI" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/F9XKiaA9qNI</a>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9XKiaA9qNI

[Red-Soldier]

Feargal Sharkey. I found this informative - and quite worrying.

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/F9XKiaA9qNI" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/F9XKiaA9qNI</a>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9XKiaA9qNI

Feargal Sharkey is great.  A really strong voice for river conservation in the UK.

[Mister Flip Flop]

There was a lad on Irish radio yesterday talking about how Bill Gates private jet uses more emissions in one crossing of the NY to London route than a normal working class person does in a lifetime of driving their average car.

[Nobby Reserve]

Germany has shut down its last 3 nuclear power stations.

The Greens and environmentalists celebrate as a clean energy source with almost no GHG emissions, is replaced by coal-fired power stations that not only emit tons of GHG's & contribute to acid rain, but send out more radioactive material than nuclear power stations.

It's fucking lunacy.

https://www.sciencefocus.com/science/do-coal-fired-power-stations-produce-radioactive-waste/
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/E-9-2022-003567_EN.html#:~:text=Studies%20show%20that%20ash%20from,than%20a%20nuclear%20power%20plant.

[Jiminy Cricket]

Germany has shut down its last 3 nuclear power stations.

The Greens and environmentalists celebrate as a clean energy source with almost no GHG emissions, is replaced by coal-fired power stations that not only emit tons of GHG's & contribute to acid rain, but send out more radioactive material than nuclear power stations.

It's fucking lunacy.

https://www.sciencefocus.com/science/do-coal-fired-power-stations-produce-radioactive-waste/
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/E-9-2022-003567_EN.html#:~:text=Studies%20show%20that%20ash%20from,than%20a%20nuclear%20power%20plant.

Is is indeed lunacy. It is another example of domga winning out over science.

[Machae]

Saw a stat very recently comparing France, Germany and UKs energy production/supply with France cleary in front with their green power and Germany, UK lagging with way more emmisions via coal

[Bioluminescence]

This is a major win - A seismic win went almost unnoticed among the Tuckerstorm

All eyes were on former FoxNews angerman Tucker Carlson yesterday, as his owners pushed him from the nest. They offered the tersest of statements and no explanation, but coming on the heels of the giant settlement in the Dominion voting systems case, it seems plausible that the Murdochs had decided he was a liability, not an asset. A $787 million settlement can change your outlook.

But something else happened yesterday too, with a price tag that may eventually dwarf that settlement, and with even larger potential implications for the future of the planet. The Supreme Court, also tersely, declined to grant cert in a case brought by oil companies desperately trying to hold off state court trials for their climate crimes.

[jambutty]

El Nino cycle coming up.

They're expecting really warm and really nasty.

[Bioluminescence]

It's scary. Recent modelling is indicating a strong El Niño later on in the year, though at this stage there's still a degree of uncertainty.

This news story is really worrying - Recent, rapid ocean warming ahead of El Niño alarms scientists. If we do get a strong El Niño it will probably push the temperatures close to the 1.5ºC limit we've set ourselves. It's a sobering and terrifying thought.

[Nobby Reserve]

SW Water announces an extension of a hosepipe ban 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-65375080


Here in NW England, we're just above average for the time of year. And in the SE, they're also above average (generally 90-99% full). So either infrastructure can't cope with increased demand from more and more houses in Devon, or a traditionally wet region is having a dry period.

[Sudden Death Draft Loser]

SW Water announces an extension of a hosepipe ban 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-65375080


Here in NW England, we're just above average for the time of year. And in the SE, they're also above average (generally 90-99% full). So either infrastructure can't cope with increased demand from more and more houses in Devon, or a traditionally wet region is having a dry period.

It's been raining loads down here recently. I'm sick of it.

[rob1966]

SW Water announces an extension of a hosepipe ban 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-65375080


Here in NW England, we're just above average for the time of year. And in the SE, they're also above average (generally 90-99% full). So either infrastructure can't cope with increased demand from more and more houses in Devon, or a traditionally wet region is having a dry period.

Latest figures say they lose 90 million litres of water a day due to leaks

[oojason]

'Army of fake social media accounts defend UAE presidency of climate summit':-

Sultan Al Jaber – Cop28 president and CEO of state oil firm – is ‘ally the climate movement needs’, posts say

www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jun/08/army-of-fake-social-media-accounts-defend-uae-presidency-of-climate-summit





a snippet...


'An army of fake social media accounts on Twitter and the blogging site Medium have been promoting and defending the controversial hosting of a UN climate summit by the United Arab Emirates.

The president of the Cop28 climate talks is Sultan Al Jaber, who is also the chief executive of the state oil giant Adnoc, which has major net zero-busting expansion plans.

Posts from fake accounts claimed: “The UAE’s commitment to being the perfect host for Cop28 is a testament to its leadership in tackling climate change,” and that Al Jaber is “the ally the climate movement needs”. Others retweeted or reposted UAE government tweets or sought to rebut criticism. One account had an AI-generated profile picture, but text labelling the image as fake had not been cropped out.'




In other news...


'‘Absolute scandal’: UAE state oil firm able to read Cop28 climate summit emails':-

Exclusive: UN conference president Sultan Al Jaber is also head of oil firm, which was consulted on how to respond to a media inquiry

www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jun/07/uae-oil-firm-cop28-climate-summit-emails-sultan-al-jaber-adnoc


'The United Arab Emirates’ state oil company has been able to read emails to and from the Cop28 climate summit office and was consulted on how to respond to a media inquiry, the Guardian can reveal.

The UAE is hosting the UN climate summit in November and the president of Cop28 is Sultan Al Jaber, who is also chief executive of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc). The revelations have been called “explosive” and a “scandal” by lawmakers.

The Cop28 office had claimed its email system was “standalone” and “separate” from that of Adnoc. But expert technical analysis showed the office shared email servers with Adnoc. After the Guardian’s inquiries, the Cop28 office switched to a different server on Monday.

Al Jaber’s dual role has attracted strong criticism, including from the former UN climate chief Christiana Figueres, who called his approach “dangerous”.'




'Cop28 president’s team accused of Wikipedia ‘greenwashing’':-

Exclusive: UAE using site to ‘control narrative’ amid criticism of oil boss leading climate summit, say critics

www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/30/cop28-president-team-accused-of-wikipedia-greenwashing-sultan-al-jaber





'The Cop28 president, Sultan Al Jaber, has been accused of attempting to “greenwash” his image after it emerged that members of his team had edited Wikipedia pages that highlighted his role as CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc).

Work by Al Jaber’s team on his and the climate summit’s Wikipedia entries include adding a quote from an editorial that said Al Jaber – the United Arab Emirates minister for industry and advanced technology – was “precisely the kind of ally the climate movement needs”. They also suggested that editors remove reference to a multibillion-dollar oil pipeline deal he signed in 2019, the Centre for Climate Reporting and the Guardian can reveal.'

[thejbs]

Climate change: Sudden heat increase in seas around UK and Ireland https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-65948544

Was swimming in the water was off the coast of Sligo last week and was shocked at how warm it felt.