Topic: Brexit - doesn't really seem to be a very good idea does it? (*)

[Millie]

My sister in law voted Brexit and wants us out asap - "it will be fine" she says 

Her husband works at Airbus Broughton.  Go figure how thick some people really are.

I can't even look her in the face

[cloggypop]

The Netherlands seems to be picking up loads of trade fleeing the UK, Sony being one of the latest. It is ideally placed in Europe and has a highly educated workforce with a high standard of English so I can understand why.

[SlowRap]

It's a long time since I was a contributor to any forum, but as a long term reader of the Brexit updates here (its nice to read there's still plenty of sane people in the world!), I just wanted to give an update of a situation I am very close too, although I don't want to reveal too much for reasons which I hope will be understood.

The company in question has reduced the workforce by circa 400 over the past year (combination of early retirement scheme & natural wastage) and I have seen the figures of a No Deal Brexit.  Net impact is circa 110 million a year additional cost to the business, which is the calculated position based on the tariffs applied on parts procured within the EU, the tariff imposed on goods sold to the EU & the additional logistics required.

This is a company which doesn't have the profit margins to take this hit to the business and there is a real risk that this company could be forced to take drastic measures in the future. 

Why am I posting this...well the company haven't gone public, because they are part of an organisation where share prices could be impacted overseas, so it does beg the question just how much is being deliberately kept quiet for such reasons - especially UK subsidaries of major overseas companies.

A No Deal Brexit will fuck this country up, although I think we all already know this.

Yep and people in the know (JRM) and his investment funds will make an absolute killing on Brexit (betting on the pound falling, insider info on companies going bust and short selling their shares etc)

[So… Howard Philips]

Yep and people in the know (JRM) and his investment funds will make an absolute killing on Brexit (betting on the pound falling, insider info on companies going bust and short selling their shares etc)

You can add the other spivs like Frottage and Banks to that list too.

You can just imagine the amount of commercially sensitive information swilling around the Government at the moment just waiting to be leaked or even accessed in talks with the likes of the ERG or DUP.

Isn't it about time we saw a photo of man of the people Frottage supping a pint? Haven't seen that one for a while.

[So… Howard Philips]

Apparently we will be able to buy cheap booze and fags from France again.

Balance that out against the loss of rights, freedoms, trade and international standing and I think it equals out to...oh no, it's still a shitshow.

Oh no it isn't!

Just to think of all the jolly boy trips from decaying towns on the South coast bringing white van loads of cheap booze from hyper markets in Calais to flog at car boot sales. It's just like rationing and the Blitz.

[Andy @ Allerton!]

So. We are again at the doorstep of Brexit..

What do we reckon is the likely outcome of what is to happen (We'll assume a hard or soft Brexit) and what kind of things will be done by who to alleviate what!?

Will the NHS be better/worse off, will Austerity get better/worse, will the UK soar like an eagle or plunge like a brick into a puddle of shite? Will we be respected by our 'allies' after Trade Deals or will they take the piss out of our desperation? Will the Tabloids report the truth or a 1984-like dirge of bollocks?

[Jiminy Cricket]

I expect that it will be a no-deal Brexit on the 31st October. And, the UK will be forced back to the EU within weeks to beg for a belated acceptance of the WA as negotiated by Theresa May. May will feel totally vindicated by that. But this will lock the UK into an absurd situation with NI, and (unlike now) it will at that stage become a truly vassal state, with no representation at the European Parliament, no veto, no nothing. We will have to accept whatever rules and trading positions the EU as our own (but with no say).

[Crumble]

Someone once said that, given any fundamental change in circumstances, it is human nature to over-estimate the short-term impact and under-estimate the long-term effect.

On that basis I expect things to be a bit crappy on day 1 of Brexit with a subsequent gradually accelerating decline lasting a generation or so.

[drmick]

So. We are again at the doorstep of Brexit..

What do we reckon is the likely outcome of what is to happen (We'll assume a hard or soft Brexit) and what kind of things will be done by who to alleviate what!?

Will the NHS be better/worse off, will Austerity get better/worse, will the UK soar like an eagle or plunge like a brick into a puddle of shite? Will we be respected by our 'allies' after Trade Deals or will they take the piss out of our desperation? Will the Tabloids report the truth or a 1984-like dirge of bollocks?

Don't we have two threads already where this is being discussed?

[Andy @ Allerton!]

Don't we have two threads already where this is being discussed?

One is discussing the situation up to the rumbling actuality of leaving. The other is discussing which Clown we are likely to get to 'preside' over matters.

This is discussing what is likely to happen post-leaving.

This is more of a prediction thread about how good or how bad things are likely to get. Plus it has a poll, so we can see the general feeling about the likely outcome.

[Danny Boys Dad]

Who on earth thinks that it's going to be great from the start? If he or she would like to identify themselves I have a unicorn I'd like to sell them.

[killer-heels]

When it comes to it, I dont think Johnson has the guts for a No Deal.

More likely another extension or even revocation.

I actually hope there is a General Election.

[Zeb]

Depends how it's done, doesn't it? If Johnson gulls the Tories into signing off on the Withdrawal Agreement then the immediate consequences won't be particularly evident because nothing changes during the transition period to then negotiate the future relationship. It will continue as things are, uncertainty and the longer term impacts on investment and companies' future planning included.

No Deal will be a clusterfuck. Think everyone will breath a huge sigh of relief initially - 'look the world didn't end!' - and then it'll kick properly in three or four weeks down the line when all the mitigation starts to fall apart and people start realising how dependent we'd become on stuff moving about quickly and easily.

Like Crumble says, harder impacts to avoid are those which will follow this for decades to come. Remember when everyone used to laugh about warnings over austerity? And now complain about not having had a pay rise above inflation in a decade? Aye.

[Red-Soldier]

Don't we have two threads already where this is being discussed?

It's Andy. He's a serial thread starter, espcially if he wasn't the one that started the original thread 

[BoRed]

Assuming it happens ... complete clusterfuck from start to finish. It won't happen, though.