Author Topic: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19  (Read 30351 times)

Offline JP-65

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Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« on: July 13, 2018, 12:51:06 PM »
Not long to go, here's the final summary for last season.

Interesting that, despite our poor performance against the relegated teams, we still had more points against the bottom 10 than any of our direct competitors (ex City of course)

With United, we had the least losses against the top 10, draws were our downfall.

I'll do the City results before the season begins so there's a good comparison as the season unfolds.

Offline Brian Blessed

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #1 on: July 13, 2018, 02:37:21 PM »
Thanks, JP, always a good read.

Yeah, the draws were a killer. It's great we were undefeated at home, but seven draws is a few too many.

I also wonder why our form against the rest of the top five went from brilliant in 16/17 to fucking dreadful in 17/18.

Offline hesbighesred

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #2 on: July 13, 2018, 08:06:02 PM »
Thanks, JP, always a good read.

Yeah, the draws were a killer. It's great we were undefeated at home, but seven draws is a few too many.

I also wonder why our form against the rest of the top five went from brilliant in 16/17 to fucking dreadful in 17/18.

I don't think it really did. It's very fine margins against the top teams. Mane sent off, a dubious penalty in the Spurs game, a fluked cross going in against Chelsea. I don't remember any goals/incidents like that going against us in the big games last season. Maybe also a slight element of underdog syndrome - we raised our game a bit against big teams who came and played us where this season they sat back a bit more and perhaps the pressure got to us a tiny bit? Perhaps also a little bad luck in front loading a lot of big games to the start of the season before Salah had bedded in?

Seeing it like that though - we were fucking fantastic against the bottom 10.

And we've now got Keita and Fabinho, two players who will help us move the ball quicker through tighter spaces against the bottom 10, add more height against the launchers (well, Fab will), and who will press the shit out of anyone who tries to play. Could easily see that record improving even more, and applying more consistently to the top 10 too.

But overall it honestly didn't feel to me like we played any worse (except against Spurs perhaps, but then I thought we played better against Arsenal) - just got worse results.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2018, 08:07:49 PM by hesbighesred »

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #3 on: July 13, 2018, 08:30:29 PM »
Turn the Swansea loss into a win, and the Stoke & West Brom home draws to wins....we end up matched to United....small margins indeed.

Offline hesbighesred

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #4 on: July 13, 2018, 08:36:19 PM »
Turn the Swansea loss into a win, and the Stoke & West Brom home draws to wins....we end up matched to United....small margins indeed.
We got some dreadful refereeing decisions in Stoke and both West Brom games as well, as I recall.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #5 on: July 13, 2018, 08:50:09 PM »
We got some dreadful refereeing decisions in Stoke and both West Brom games as well, as I recall.

For sure, & not just those 2 matches!

In addition, ex-City, we had the best record against the bottom 14. 
We dropped 19 points in these 28 matches, Spurs dropped 20 points, United 22 points, Chelsea 26 points & Arsenal 27 points.

Offline sms1986

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #6 on: July 13, 2018, 08:56:07 PM »
In addition, ex-City, we had the best record against the bottom 14. 
We dropped 19 points in these 28 matches, Spurs dropped 20 points, United 22 points, Chelsea 26 points & Arsenal 27 points.

Think we'll improve on that next season.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #7 on: July 23, 2018, 04:50:23 PM »
Anatomy of a record season

Offline dudleyred

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #8 on: July 23, 2018, 04:55:35 PM »
Anatomy of a record season

32 wins!!looks mad when you see it like that

They’ll not be as good this year. I suspect they’ll drop to ~90 points

Offline gjr1

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #9 on: July 24, 2018, 03:41:42 AM »
7 homes draws... Some disappointing away draws... I very disappointing away loss.

There's points to be made for sure.
We have to be like Rocky

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #10 on: July 31, 2018, 02:15:00 PM »
Nice chart by Ben Mayhew

Offline hesbighesred

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #11 on: July 31, 2018, 02:37:40 PM »
32 wins!!looks mad when you see it like that

They’ll not be as good this year. I suspect they’ll drop to ~90 points
I think that's slightly optimistic. I'm not saying they won't drop more points - It'll be damn hard to match last season - but Guardiola's teams have beaten points records in every league they've played in, and he has shown that, above all else, there is no better manager at beating teams set up to try and frustrate. The only way to beat his teams is with luck or the Klopp approach - high press, high risk, high reward - but attempt the latter without enough quality and, while that may be your only chance of a win, it also invites an absolute hiding. Due to their dominance of possession, they also find it easy to pick up points against the big teams. I would hope that more teams will think 'fuck it, let's give it a go' this season, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see City comfortably beat 90 points again.

However, we're also capable of getting 90 with a good enough start, and if we can stay within pressuring range and City last deep into the CL, I could see them ultimately prioritising the latter as, lets face it, it's the one they're all desperate to win.

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #12 on: July 31, 2018, 02:47:22 PM »
Nice chart by Ben Mayhew

I like the format, I don't know about using odds. Maybe using last season's standing would be better.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #13 on: July 31, 2018, 03:37:23 PM »
I like the format, I don't know about using odds. Maybe using last season's standing would be better.

Look at the easy starts that City & Spurs have...we seem to have the most difficult start from the Top 6

Offline sms1986

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #14 on: July 31, 2018, 03:51:23 PM »
Look at the easy starts that City & Spurs have...we seem to have the most difficult start from the Top 6

Looking at the first ten for the top six -

City - 3 "red", 3 "grey" and 4 "blue".
Liverpool - 3 "red", 4 "grey" and 3 "blue".
United - 2 "red", 6 "grey" and 2 "blue".
Chelsea - 3 "red", 4 "grey" and 3 "blue".
Spurs - 3 "red", 2 "grey" and 5 "blue".
Arsenal - 2 "red", 5 "grey" and 3 "blue".

I would say they're fairly similar - ours is identical to that of Chelsea and not really that different to that of City. Spurs will likely have a slow start to the season anyway, whilst it's not having an easy start that matters, it's actually taking advantage of that easy start.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #15 on: July 31, 2018, 04:00:55 PM »
Looking at the first ten for the top six -

City - 3 "red", 3 "grey" and 4 "blue".
Liverpool - 3 "red", 4 "grey" and 3 "blue".
United - 2 "red", 6 "grey" and 2 "blue".
Chelsea - 3 "red", 4 "grey" and 3 "blue".
Spurs - 3 "red", 2 "grey" and 5 "blue".
Arsenal - 2 "red", 5 "grey" and 3 "blue".

I would say they're fairly similar - ours is identical to that of Chelsea and not really that different to that of City. Spurs will likely have a slow start to the season anyway, whilst it's not having an easy start that matters, it's actually taking advantage of that easy start.

I was just looking at the Aug/Sept fixtures.

Offline sms1986

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #16 on: July 31, 2018, 04:08:59 PM »
I was just looking at the Aug/Sept fixtures.

That's still 70% of the ones I mentioned.

Offline Brian Blessed

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #17 on: July 31, 2018, 04:27:47 PM »
That's still 70% of the ones I mentioned.

And that 70% shows us and two other teams with two red, but we only have one blue, lower than anyone else.

As far as the spread of reds go, only us and Spurs have two sets of them back to back, so we have potential to do some real damage there.

Newcastle have the toughest start by far, followed by Cardiff. But it may very well be a case of getting them out the way is for the best.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #18 on: July 31, 2018, 04:40:03 PM »
And that 70% shows us and two other teams with two red, but we only have one blue, lower than anyone else.

As far as the spread of reds go, only us and Spurs have two sets of them back to back, so we have potential to do some real damage there.

Newcastle have the toughest start by far, followed by Cardiff. But it may very well be a case of getting them out the way is for the best.

Exactly  :)

We have 3 reds in 4 matches early on. 

Spurs have 5 blues, City have 4 & we have 1 during the same period.

Clearly, the further you extend out, the more balanced it becomes  8)

Offline sms1986

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #19 on: July 31, 2018, 04:48:52 PM »
Exactly  :)

We have 3 reds in 4 matches early on. 

Spurs have 5 blues, City have 4 & we have 1 during the same period.

Clearly, the further you extend out, the more balanced it becomes  8)

As I said though, Spurs will likely have a slower start and you still need to take advantage of an easier start.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #20 on: August 13, 2018, 12:26:37 PM »
Week 1:

Equivalent Match: all Top 6 teams achieved the same result as last season.

Time: City, United & Spurs all same, Chelsea +3, Liverpool +2, Arsenal -3

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #21 on: August 13, 2018, 03:01:36 PM »
Here's the data on our PL home record since end of March, that everyone is talking about:

5W 1D in this spell, 18GF 0GA

Draw with Stoke the only blemish.

Offline PoetryInMotion

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #22 on: August 13, 2018, 03:26:09 PM »
And it has to be taken into account that we only conceded 10 goals in the league in 19 League games at Anfield last season, with 5 of them coming against City & Spurs.

We only scored 14 goals though in our first 9 games at Anfield last season, which seemed to be a bit of a problem contributing to 5 draws in that period. Post that, we scored 31 goals in our last 10 games at Anfield and had only 2 draws (1 against Spurs and another against Stoke, when we had to field an extremely depleted side due to CL later stages).
« Last Edit: August 13, 2018, 03:53:41 PM by PoetryInMotion »

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #23 on: August 13, 2018, 06:31:26 PM »
Not sure where to post this, but our fixture list from November end to January start is brutal (not in terms of difficulty necessarily, but in terms of having midweek games every week, our squad will be tested).

It starts with

Weekend Sat 24th Watford A (PL)

Midweek 27th–28th (CL Matchday 5)

Weekend Sat 1st Everton H (PL)

Midweek Tue 4th Burnley A (PL)

Weekend Sat 8th Bournemouth A (PL)

Midweek 11th–12th (CL Matchday 6)

Weekend Sat 15th Manchester United H (PL)

Midweek 18th-19th (EFL Cup Round 5)

Weekend Sat 22nd Wolves A (PL)

Midweek Wed 26th Newcastle H (PL)

Weekend Sat 29th Arsenal H (PL)

Midweek Tue 1st Manchester City A (PL)

We need to not put pressure in the last 2 CL Group Stage games and be comfortable there to ensure we go through this with some success. And we have a challenging September (with Spurs A & Chelsea A). Outside of these periods we have a fairly comfortable ride, so I hope Klopp's planning his rotation in line with this.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #24 on: August 20, 2018, 09:54:45 PM »
Week 2 update:

Time:  City +2 Utd -3 Spurs +3 LFC +2 Chelsea +3 Arsenal -3

Equivalent Match: City +2 Utd 0 Spurs +2 LFC 0 Chelsea +2 Arsenal -1

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #25 on: August 21, 2018, 09:20:50 PM »
I wanted to keep this to one chart but the file size is too big to load.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #26 on: August 27, 2018, 09:42:02 PM »
Week 3 update:

Time:  City 0 Utd -6 Spurs +5 LFC +2 Chelsea +3 Arsenal 0

Equivalent Match: City 0 Utd -3 Spurs +5 LFC 0 Chelsea +5 Arsenal -1

Offline MerseysideBrum

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #27 on: August 28, 2018, 11:36:52 AM »
Hardest 5 game period of the season coming up (with League Cup and CL mid week as well)
The reds are coming up the hill boys.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #28 on: August 28, 2018, 11:57:06 AM »
Updated:

Offline drmick

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #29 on: August 28, 2018, 09:05:17 PM »
Week 3 update:

Time:  City 0 Utd -6 Spurs +5 LFC +2 Chelsea +3 Arsenal 0

Equivalent Match: City 0 Utd -3 Spurs +5 LFC 0 Chelsea +5 Arsenal -1

Spurs and Chelsea definitely making statements.

Offline PoetryInMotion

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #30 on: August 28, 2018, 09:55:20 PM »
Week 3 update:

Time:  City 0 Utd -6 Spurs +5 LFC +2 Chelsea +3 Arsenal 0

Equivalent Match: City 0 Utd -3 Spurs +5 LFC 0 Chelsea +5 Arsenal -1

Adding last season's points with equivalent results

1. Man City 100 points
2. Spurs 82 points
3. Man United 78 points
4. Liverpool 75 points
5. Chelsea 75 points
6. Arsenal 62 points

Offline Brian Blessed

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #31 on: August 29, 2018, 02:43:15 PM »
Adding last season's points with equivalent results

1. Man City 100 points
2. Spurs 82 points
3. Man United 78 points
4. Liverpool 75 points
5. Chelsea 75 points
6. Arsenal 62 points
Nice! I do like that idea.

Offline zabadoh

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #32 on: September 1, 2018, 04:54:33 AM »
Anatomy of a record season

Astonishing.  I mean it would have to be to get to 100 points, but only 4 draws and 2 losses for Manchester City last season was an amazing feat.

Still, it's a new season, and everyone's starting over agsin.

I'm looking forward to following this thread and hopefully following our improvement.
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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #33 on: September 1, 2018, 06:03:30 AM »
City set up the bar way too high last season, but I think that we are much closer this time around, Spurs are as strong as last year, Chelsea are half-decent and United are showing the shit they are made of. I reckon it will be City and us for the title with Spurs close third and Chelsea fourth.
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Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #34 on: September 4, 2018, 01:30:10 PM »
Week 4 update:

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #35 on: September 15, 2018, 11:55:14 PM »
Week 5 Update:

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #36 on: September 23, 2018, 07:20:03 PM »
Week 6 update:

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #37 on: September 23, 2018, 07:28:25 PM »
The 1st season to go:

2014/5: Chelsea fast out of the blocks, then ticked over for the rest of the season
2015/6: Cluster fuck of a season, 81 points to win the PL...sheesh
2016/7: Chelsea with a slow start, then unbelievable for the rest of the season to win it easily
2017/8: City & United with fast starts, City keeps that pace for the rest of the season, wow!
2018/9: 3 teams with superb starts, the bar keeps being raised.

IMO, it's highly unlikely that Spurs, Arsenal or United can turn it up enough to get to the 90 point level...early days, but it's already a 3 horse race.

Offline campioni

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #38 on: September 24, 2018, 11:42:05 AM »
The 1st season to go:

2014/5: Chelsea fast out of the blocks, then ticked over for the rest of the season
2015/6: Cluster fuck of a season, 81 points to win the PL...sheesh
2016/7: Chelsea with a slow start, then unbelievable for the rest of the season to win it easily
2017/8: City & United with fast starts, City keeps that pace for the rest of the season, wow!
2018/9: 3 teams with superb starts, the bar keeps being raised.

IMO, it's highly unlikely that Spurs, Arsenal or United can turn it up enough to get to the 90 point level...early days, but it's already a 3 horse race.

United can possibly take solace from Chelsea in 16/17 but with everything they have going on off the pitch as well as the shite on it, its hard to see them putting together a similar run to that Chelsea side.

We just need to win our next 4, then we can relax into 2 points per game mode and hit 90 points. Easy.  ;D

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #39 on: September 24, 2018, 03:56:00 PM »
United can possibly take solace from Chelsea in 16/17 but with everything they have going on off the pitch as well as the shite on it, its hard to see them putting together a similar run to that Chelsea side.

We just need to win our next 4, then we can relax into 2 points per game mode and hit 90 points. Easy.  ;D

Given the manager, they're more like Chelsea in 2015/16 ;)