Author Topic: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19  (Read 30395 times)

Offline jillc

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #160 on: January 13, 2019, 04:26:12 PM »


Turning those draws into wins, so important. We need to keep that up until the end.
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Offline Paul1611

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #161 on: January 13, 2019, 05:35:24 PM »
Only 7 aways left all of a sudden!  Utd and the derby but the rest we should be winning

Offline BassTunedToRed

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #162 on: January 13, 2019, 07:16:57 PM »
Only 7 aways left all of a sudden!  Utd and the derby but the rest we should be winning

I know it's not that straight forward, but on the form of the teams this season, Liverpool should probably win all of their remaining aways.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #163 on: January 13, 2019, 08:10:53 PM »
I'll do the updates after City's match tomorrow, but after this weekend:

United & Arsenal can only do 89 points if they win all their remaining matches.

If 93 is the winning total, Spurs can only have 1 loss in their last 16 matches, Chelsea only 1 draw.

A two team race it is now for sure

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #164 on: January 13, 2019, 09:22:06 PM »
Turning those draws into wins, so important. We need to keep that up until the end.
Yep. But even if we just match our results from last year - 33 points, only 9 wins - we’d get 90 points! We should do better than that this season.

City will need to find the form they had in the first half of last season to beat us.

Offline Jack Slater

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #165 on: January 14, 2019, 08:34:13 AM »
Our best starts for 22 games.  (3 Point Era)

1.  2018/2019 - 57 points
2.  1987/88  -  56 points  [finished 1st:  90 points from 40 games]
3.  1990/91  -  50 points  [finished 2nd:  76 points from 38 games]
4.  1982/83  -  47 points  [finished 1st:  82 points from 42 games]
4.  2008/09  -  47 points  [finished 2nd:  86 points from 38 games]
6.  1983/84  -  45 points  [finished 1st:  80 points from 42 games]
6.  1985/86  -  45 points  [finished 1st:  88 points from 42 games]
6.  2005/06  -  45 points  [finished 3rd:  82 points from 38 games]
6.  2016/17  -  45 points  [finished 4th:  76 points from 38 games]


22 Game Records in PL Era

Points

57 points is the third highest ever (after 62 last year for MCI, and 61 for CHE in 05/06).

Only 9 teams (including us this season) have had as many as 54 points at this stage, and the other 8 all won the title.

Only 13 teams, so far, (including us this season) have had as many as 52 points at this stage, and the other 12 all won the title.  However, of course, a win for MCI today would mean that they also go past 52 points.

Up to now, the highest points total, after 22 games, by a team which did not win the PL title is 51 points.  [MUN in 11/12; ARS 07/08 and 13/14]


Goals Against

Chelsea in 04/05 had let in 8 by this stage.

Our current season is joint second best (for PL era), along with MUN in 08/09.


Goals Scored

We have 50 goals after 22 games.  Including this season, 19 teams have had at least 50 goals after this many games (including MCI who currently have 56 goals from just 21 games).

The top 3 places (and the only team to reach 60 goals after 22 games) are all held by MCI in title winning seasons.  (64 last year; 63 in 13/14; 60 in  11/12).

LFC's best was 53 goals in 13/14.  We had 51 in 16/17.  This season is our joint third best (we also had 50 goals at this stage last year).


Goal Difference

Our GD of +40 is currently the 3rd best behind MCI in 17/18 (+51) and 11/12 (+42).  Of course, MCI is yet to play and are on +39, so things can change.



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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #166 on: January 14, 2019, 09:25:28 AM »
i think we need another 11x wins and 4 draws from remaining fixtures(16 games) to win league(94 points)

city need 14x wins and 3 draws from their remaining 17 games to win it!(95 points)

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Offline 88_RED

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #167 on: January 14, 2019, 10:20:07 AM »
Turning those draws into wins, so important. We need to keep that up until the end.

City's remaining fixtures:

- Wolves (H)
- Huddersfield (A)
- 2 Cup games in between
- Newcastle (A)
- Arsenal (H)
- Chelsea (H)
- Champions League (A)
- Everton (A)
- West Ham (H)
- Bournemouth (A)
- Watford (H)
- Champions League (H)
- Man United (A)
- Fulham (H)
- Cardiff (H)
- Crystal Palace (A)
- Tottenham (H)
- Burnley (A)
- Leicester (H)
- Brighton (A)

*** Remaining cup / cl games to be plotted of course and they could have a bearing as well with the fixture pile up.. I expect them to have a very tough League Cup final to contend with and hopefully they draw one of Barca, PSG, Atletico in the next round of the CL, barring the usual suspects go through..

Now as far as their PL fixture list is concerned, they still have Chelsea, Arsenal, United and Spurs to play, but crucially 3 of those are at home. They should roll over Arsenal and will possibly beat Tottenham as well, but it's the fixtures against Chelsea and United where I feel they could drop 4, 5 or even 6 points.

Of the remaining matches, I just don't see where they will drop points, especially after being stung by Palace and Leicester already.. Hopefully history repeats itself in the reverse fixtures, but it looks difficult..

So if they win tonight and the gap comes back down to 4, I have them down to drop a maximum of 6 points from now till the end of the season. That gives us a buffer of 3 more losses or 2 losses and a few draws..

Chelsea and United are likely to be the king makers this season whether we like it or not.. 
 
« Last Edit: January 14, 2019, 10:37:23 AM by 88_RED »
F*CK 0FF Mourinho..

Offline a treeless whopper

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #168 on: January 14, 2019, 10:23:00 AM »
City's remaining fixtures:

- Wolves (H)
- Huddersfield (A)
- 2 Cup games in between
- Newcastle (A)
- Arsenal (H)
- Chelsea (H)
- Champions League (A)
- Everton (A)
- West Ham (H)
- Bournemouth (A)
- Watford (H)
- Champions League (H)
- Man United (A)
- Fulham (H)
- Cardiff (H)
- Crystal Palace (A)
- Tottenham (H)
- Burnley (A)
- Leicester (H)
- Brighton (H)

*** Remaining cup / cl games to be plotted of course and they could have a bearing as well with the fixture pile up.. I expect them to have a very tough League Cup match to contend with and hopefully they draw one of Barca, PSG, Atletico in the next round of the CL, barring the usual suspects go through..

Now as far as their PL fixture list is concerned, they still have Chelsea, Arsenal, United and Spurs to play, but crucially 3 of those are at home. They should roll over Arsenal and will possibly beat Tottenham as well, but it's the fixtures against Chelsea and United where I feel they could drop 4, 5 or even 6 points.

Of the remaining matches, I just don't see where they will drop points, especially after being stung by Palace and Leicester already.. Hopefully history repeats itself in the reverse fixtures, but it looks difficult..

So if they win tonight and the gap comes back down to 4, I have them down to drop a maximum of 6 points from now till the end of the season. That gives us a buffer of 3 more losses or 2 losses a few draws..

Chelsea and United are likely to be the king makers this season whether we like it or not.. 
 

Brighton is away surely?


Offline 88_RED

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #169 on: January 14, 2019, 10:35:09 AM »
Brighton is away surely?

Fixed.. But given their financial doping and limitless state funds you never know..  ;D
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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #170 on: January 14, 2019, 10:42:43 AM »
There will be plenty of twists yet

Before the season Burnley and palace were, in my opinion, two of the toughest away matches beyond the big six on paper. They have to play both still along with Brighton which is probably on form the toughest par three away this season. They have got Utd away to come and Everton away (as we have of course)

Both teams will drop points yet

Offline Perham

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #171 on: January 14, 2019, 06:16:19 PM »
snip
What this essentially shows for me is that in most seasons we'd be comfortable and would be by far the best team in the league. As it happens, there are two abnormally good teams right now who both really deserve it with their current season so far(although to say that city deserve it is a stretch given their financial doping and all but the point is they've got an incredible squad as have we)
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Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #172 on: January 14, 2019, 10:42:23 PM »
Match 22 update:

Offline Jack Slater

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #173 on: January 15, 2019, 08:26:17 AM »
... in most seasons we'd be comfortable and would be by far the best team in the league. As it happens, there are two abnormally good teams right now ...

Yeah.  AFAIK, ours is the fifth best ever start in top flight history.

Apart from the two better PL Era starts mentioned above:

After 22 games of 1960/61, Spurs were 19W, 2D, 1L, so equivalent to 59 points @ 3 points for a win.

After 22 games of 1888/89 (which was the end of the season), Preston were 18W and 4D, so equivalent to 58 points @ 3 points for a win.

By comparison, in the season in which LFC set the record for 2 points/42 games, after 22 games of 1978/79, we were 16W, 3D and 3L, so equivalent to 51 points @ 3 points for a win.  That season, we also set the top flight record for fewest goals conceded over 42 games; coincidentally, as with this season, we had let in 10 goals in first 22 games.

So, like you say, there's two truly outstanding teams at the moment.  Pep's record smashers of last season have not vanished into thin air.

Up to now, every team that has had as many as 52 points after 22 games has gone on to lift the title.  This season, (at least) one team which has had at least 53 points at the 22 game mark will miss out on top spot.




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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #174 on: January 19, 2019, 10:31:57 PM »
In honour of achieving 60 points for the season here is a list of the points we have achieved by the end of the seasons since we last won the title in 1990


   Season      Points      GD   
   08/09      86      50   
   13/14      84      51   
   05/06      82      32   
   01/02      80      37   
   07/08      76      39   
   90/91      76      37   
   16/17      76      36   
   17/18      75      46   
   94/95      74      28   
   95/96      71      36   
   00/01      69      32   
   06/07      68      30   
   96/97      68      25   
   99/00      67      21   
   97/98      65      26   
   02/03      64      20   
   91/92      64      7   
   09/10      63      26   
   14/15      62      4   
   12/13      61      28   
   18/19      60      41   
   03/04      60      18   
   15/16      60      13   
   93/94      60      4   
   92/93      59      7   
   10/11      58      15   
   04/05      58      11   
   98/99      54      19   
   11/12      52      7   
            

Apart from the fact that we have already got as many points as 8 of these seasons our Goal Difference is already better than all but 3 of them!      


With thanks to www.lfchistory.net for the league tables
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Offline a treeless whopper

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #175 on: January 19, 2019, 10:36:02 PM »
In honour of achieving 60 points for the season here is a list of the points we have achieved by the end of the seasons since we last won the title in 1990


   Season      Points      GD   
   08/09      86      50   
   13/14      84      51   
   05/06      82      32   
   01/02      80      37   
   07/08      76      39   
   90/91      76      37   
   16/17      76      36   
   17/18      75      46   
   94/95      74      28   
   95/96      71      36   
   00/01      69      32   
   06/07      68      30   
   96/97      68      25   
   99/00      67      21   
   97/98      65      26   
   02/03      64      20   
   91/92      64      7   
   09/10      63      26   
   14/15      62      4   
   12/13      61      28   
   18/19      60      41   
   03/04      60      18   
   15/16      60      13   
   93/94      60      4   
   92/93      59      7   
   10/11      58      15   
   04/05      58      11   
   98/99      54      19   
   11/12      52      7   
            

Apart from the fact that we have already got as many points as 8 of these seasons our Goal Difference is already better than all but 3 of them!      


With thanks to www.lfchistory.net for the league tables


God, 14/15 was so bad.

Online drmick

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #176 on: January 20, 2019, 12:24:20 AM »
God, 14/15 was so bad.

Moral of the story: don't finish 2nd the season before.

Offline Talking Reds

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #177 on: January 20, 2019, 01:51:42 AM »
In honour of achieving 60 points for the season here is a list of the points we have achieved by the end of the seasons since we last won the title in 1990


   Season      Points      GD   
   08/09      86      50   
   13/14      84      51   
   05/06      82      32   
   01/02      80      37   
   07/08      76      39   
   90/91      76      37   
   16/17      76      36   
   17/18      75      46   
   94/95      74      28   
   95/96      71      36   
   00/01      69      32   
   06/07      68      30   
   96/97      68      25   
   99/00      67      21   
   97/98      65      26   
   02/03      64      20   
   91/92      64      7   
   09/10      63      26   
   14/15      62      4   
   12/13      61      28   
   18/19      60      41   
   03/04      60      18   
   15/16      60      13   
   93/94      60      4   
   92/93      59      7   
   10/11      58      15   
   04/05      58      11   
   98/99      54      19   
   11/12      52      7   
            

Apart from the fact that we have already got as many points as 8 of these seasons our Goal Difference is already better than all but 3 of them!      


With thanks to www.lfchistory.net for the league tables

Beat Leicester and we'll have a points tally better than 6 of the last 10 years.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #178 on: January 20, 2019, 06:36:00 PM »
Match 23 update:  Spurs hanging in there  >:(

Offline redforlife

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #179 on: January 20, 2019, 07:10:09 PM »
Having grown up in an era whereby you take 2 points a game most seasons to qualify for the CL (And looking at the table above it's mad to see we've only actually done it 7 times since 1990) then it's pretty mad to think we're outperforming that by 14 points after just 23 games.

Basically, 14 draws on the bounce now would still see us at 2 points a game level with 1 game remaining.  We should cherish this season and never ever take results like we're seeing for granted.
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Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #180 on: January 22, 2019, 06:00:37 PM »
From BassTunedToRed on twitter:

"Liverpool have 60 points - when did the last 10 eventual champions hit that mark?"

I noted that City's current 56 is as good as anything on that chart except themselves last season, & LFC this....that's how tough this season is!

Chelsea's 03-04 95 point season, the previous PL record, they hit 60 points on their 24th match.

United's 11-12 season, PL points record for 2nd place with 89, they hit 60 points on their 26th match.

Offline Roger Federer

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #181 on: January 22, 2019, 08:38:54 PM »
From BassTunedToRed on twitter:

"Liverpool have 60 points - when did the last 10 eventual champions hit that mark?"

I noted that City's current 56 is as good as anything on that chart except themselves last season, & LFC this....that's how tough this season is!

Chelsea's 03-04 95 point season, the previous PL record, they hit 60 points on their 24th match.

United's 11-12 season, PL points record for 2nd place with 89, they hit 60 points on their 26th match.
It will be a new record for a second place finish, I’d bet. Both us and City should get over 90points, my guess is that they’ll finish on 94 (two draws, one loss from their last 15 games, same as last year). We can beat that, but there is not a lot of margin for error.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #182 on: January 30, 2019, 10:32:27 PM »
Match 24 update:

Offline just redk84 will do

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #183 on: January 31, 2019, 11:03:24 AM »
Feeling a lot better looking at this.
From the 2nd half of season, we have played Arsenal, City away, Palace and Leicester - all games I would consider tricky and we've only had 5 games.

I would much prefer our remaining fixtures to City's....
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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #184 on: January 31, 2019, 11:05:00 AM »
People need to read this and the ALPT. It should be compulsory.
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Offline BassTunedToRed

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #185 on: January 31, 2019, 11:09:40 AM »
I would much prefer our remaining fixtures to City's....

Small margins, but on the points per game averages (taking account of home and away) of remaining opponents, City have one of the toughest run-ins while we have one of the easier.

Via: https://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?league=england&tid=10

Offline campioni

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #186 on: January 31, 2019, 11:17:31 AM »
The PPG forecast is very interesting and encouraging from our point of view. City need to improve just to get to 90 points while still being involved in three cup competitions, whereas we're well ahead of the PPG required to get to 90.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #187 on: January 31, 2019, 12:39:27 PM »
An addition, results for the 2nd half of the season only (we won the first half  ;D)

IMO, United have had the easiest 5 matches with only Spurs as difficult opposition.
We've had the toughest with City, Arsenal, Leicester & Palace.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #188 on: January 31, 2019, 01:13:59 PM »
Here's another one:

This is a look at City's rolling 10 match PPG, over last season's 38 matches, & this season's 24 so far.

To me, it suggests that, whilst City are a formidable team, they're not as dominant, nor as consistent, as our perceptions of them.

The unprecedented strength of last season's start, in combination with a few strong string of results this season, has made them appear to be stronger than the underlying trend.

I think that the current ppg of 2.3 reflects their true performance level......would result in 89 points for the year.

This would tie United's record PL 2nd place points total ;D

Offline MerseysideBrum

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #189 on: January 31, 2019, 02:12:59 PM »
Here's another one:

This is a look at City's rolling 10 match PPG, over last season's 38 matches, & this season's 24 so far.

To me, it suggests that, whilst City are a formidable team, they're not as dominant, nor as consistent, as our perceptions of them.

The unprecedented strength of last season's start, in combination with a few strong string of results this season, has made them appear to be stronger than the underlying trend.

I think that the current ppg of 2.3 reflects their true performance level......would result in 89 points for the year.

This would tie United's record PL 2nd place points total ;D
The best thing about that graph for me is that it shows they haven't won 10 straight games for well over a season. Meaning we should have a 2 game leeway at least.
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Offline Uncle Ronnie

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #190 on: January 31, 2019, 02:14:22 PM »
Here's another one:

This is a look at City's rolling 10 match PPG, over last season's 38 matches, & this season's 24 so far.

To me, it suggests that, whilst City are a formidable team, they're not as dominant, nor as consistent, as our perceptions of them.

The unprecedented strength of last season's start, in combination with a few strong string of results this season, has made them appear to be stronger than the underlying trend.

I think that the current ppg of 2.3 reflects their true performance level......would result in 89 points for the year.

This would tie United's record PL 2nd place points total ;D

Any chance you have ours for comparison?

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #191 on: January 31, 2019, 07:33:50 PM »
Any chance you have ours for comparison?

Here you go

Offline MerseysideBrum

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #192 on: February 1, 2019, 10:41:18 AM »
Here you go
Could you plot them on the same graph please? With ours in red
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Offline Uncle Ronnie

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #193 on: February 1, 2019, 10:51:45 AM »

Offline Yosser0_0

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #194 on: February 1, 2019, 12:27:55 PM »
Here's another one:

This is a look at City's rolling 10 match PPG, over last season's 38 matches, & this season's 24 so far.

To me, it suggests that, whilst City are a formidable team, they're not as dominant, nor as consistent, as our perceptions of them.

The unprecedented strength of last season's start, in combination with a few strong string of results this season, has made them appear to be stronger than the underlying trend.

I think that the current ppg of 2.3 reflects their true performance level......would result in 89 points for the year.

This would tie United's record PL 2nd place points total ;D

That graph at around game 16, and for few games seems to show a PPG of 3? Is that even possible, I thought it was an average?
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Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #195 on: February 1, 2019, 12:35:19 PM »
That graph at around game 16, and for few games seems to show a PPG of 3? Is that even possible, I thought it was an average?

City won 18 in a row last season, so yeah, they had a rolling 10 match 3 PPG for a bit.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #196 on: February 1, 2019, 12:40:47 PM »
Could you plot them on the same graph please? With ours in red

 ;D

Offline royhendo

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #197 on: February 1, 2019, 12:43:46 PM »
Could you shade underneath in paisley pattern please? :D

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Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #198 on: February 1, 2019, 12:45:37 PM »
Could you shade underneath in paisley pattern please? :D

(Only joking - ta sir!)

Lucky it's a snowy day here :P

Offline just redk84 will do

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2018-19
« Reply #199 on: February 1, 2019, 01:34:37 PM »
Right so let me see if I am understanding that graph right…

Arouuuuund game 23 or 24 would be the same point this time last season right? Up to 38…

We looked pretty similar on the graph, City slightly above us but maybe the rolling 10 with them coming from a higher average before that point negates that.

So that bodes well for us as we just need to match them anyway from now on right? Just as we did last season...
obviously context is gonna be a massive factor

Or am I talking arse.
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