Author Topic: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool  (Read 121208 times)

Offline spider-neil

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1080 on: February 22, 2019, 09:11:41 AM »
Collating attacking stats is relatively easy.
You have the 'hockey assist', the pass before the pass that leads to a goal.
You have the 'assist' the pass before the goal.
The goal itself.
The difficulty of the chance (xG)

Working up defensive stats is much harder.
You have aerial deals, inceptions, blocks, tackles. But it's very black and white. And in my humble opinion isn't creating a clear picture of what is happening in defense. Because the defense has to work as a unit where it needs to take in several players, not just one. What if a defender is brilliant at positioning, therefore, make very little tackles? What if one defender is so brilliant at headers that opposition hand on the less capable header of the ball? Collecting defensive stats seems far more open to interpretation and nebulous.

Online Chris~

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1081 on: February 22, 2019, 10:06:59 AM »
Collating attacking stats is relatively easy.
You have the 'hockey assist', the pass before the pass that leads to a goal.
You have the 'assist' the pass before the goal.
The goal itself.
The difficulty of the chance (xG)

Working up defensive stats is much harder.
You have aerial deals, inceptions, blocks, tackles. But it's very black and white. And in my humble opinion isn't creating a clear picture of what is happening in defense. Because the defense has to work as a unit where it needs to take in several players, not just one. What if a defender is brilliant at positioning, therefore, make very little tackles? What if one defender is so brilliant at headers that opposition hand on the less capable header of the ball? Collecting defensive stats seems far more open to interpretation and nebulous.
Theres a link from one of our data scientists public stuff that has a model that covers this sort of thing in terms of defending space, I'll try find it


Found it
https://twitter.com/the_spearman/status/966750560530595843?s=19
« Last Edit: February 22, 2019, 10:10:18 AM by Chris~ »

Offline spider-neil

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1082 on: February 22, 2019, 12:03:19 PM »
Theres a link from one of our data scientists public stuff that has a model that covers this sort of thing in terms of defending space, I'll try find it


Found it
https://twitter.com/the_spearman/status/966750560530595843?s=19

Thanks :)
That is a seriously complex model. It's a pity they can't simplify it and make it available like Opta and Understat.
« Last Edit: February 22, 2019, 12:06:05 PM by spider-neil »

Offline BassTunedToRed

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1083 on: February 22, 2019, 01:03:30 PM »
Thanks :)
That is a seriously complex model. It's a pity they can't simplify it and make it available like Opta and Understat.

He works for Liverpool, so that won't be being made available in any form!

Offline BrandoLFC

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1084 on: March 11, 2019, 05:29:25 PM »
Would this be we haven't improved or would this be we hit this form last year and just kept it going?


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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1085 on: March 12, 2019, 05:19:46 PM »
Would this be we haven't improved or would this be we hit this form last year and just kept it going?


Depends if you're a glass half full or half empty person... ;)

It's also worth noting however that by looking at xGD only you'e unable to see the effects/changes of defence and Attack. So if you have a team scoring shitloads but conceding shitloads who then transition into a team that score less and concede less, the GD (and xgD) won't change too much.

I like to look at the individual components and get an overall picture. Here's Liverpool's data over the same time period and with the same 10 game Moving Average, however the xG data is from Understats so it differs especially as the xGD excludes penalties




Offline ElstonGunn

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1086 on: March 12, 2019, 06:43:13 PM »
Would this be we haven't improved or would this be we hit this form last year and just kept it going?


A bit of that, a bit of Phil in the first half/AOC in the second being fucking incredible last year and not really replacing their contribution (while overall maintaining the same level), and a LOT of Alisson being a gigantic upgrade at keeper, something not captured in those numbers.

Offline BrandoLFC

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1087 on: March 12, 2019, 07:13:45 PM »
I'm not arguing one way or another.  Just think it's an interesting discussion in that everybody has their own definition of "improvement" or lack thereof.  I'm sure there will be people out there that will argue we haven't improved if we don't win the league or CL either in good faith or not.

Offline Yiannis

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1088 on: March 14, 2019, 01:38:52 PM »


Messi in fact doesn't have a recognizable trait.

Offline a treeless whopper

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1089 on: May 23, 2019, 06:13:36 AM »
Do people actually eat beef for Breakfast? Must be some sort of brain food.

Offline royhendo

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1090 on: May 23, 2019, 09:04:12 AM »
Split the article off into a separate thread as requested dudes and dudettes. Killer, if your beef post was for that thread, I can only apologise for my oversight. :)
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Online farawayred

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1091 on: July 30, 2019, 08:45:45 PM »
That's not quite along the same path this thread has followed, but I'll put his here anyway. Mods, feel free to delete.

I think this is an interesting thread with just about enough material to apply the "wisdom of the crowd" statistical theory. The idea is that a crowd can predict more accurately an average number then an individual person. Try this with a crowd trying to guess how many marbles are in a jar, and given enough numbers, you'd get <5% error.

So, I got bored at work and started counting... Funnily, this thread has a lot of posts in the June 2-7 time frame, and yesterday and today, but nothing in between. So are we going to win the league?

I separated the answers into (1) win the league, (2) some second, and (3) top four, meaning 3rd or 4rt place. I took only the specific answers, and omitted "we will win a double", which does not necessarily include the league. In the event that someone predicted 2nd or 3rd, I put 0.5 weight in (2) and 0.5 weight in (3). here are the results:
Win     2nd     3/4
27        1         0           Results from June 2-7 only
8.5       8       10.5        Results from July 29-30 (5 people had 2nd or 3rd answer, one said the title is between us and City)

Now, these are small statistics, but they are speaking volumes! In the beginning of the summer, the crowd (we, the fans) thought that we will win the league. At the end of July, a week before the transfer window close, the crowd concludes that we will finish most likely 2nd. That's how much the opinion changed, even though only one person (PoP) specifically expressed this.

Food for thought.
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