Topic: UK GE and Local Elections, plus polls, and policy.

[Fromola]

This sees the Lib Dems becoming the official opposition.  The sight of Ed Davey and Kier Starmer furiously agreeing with each other over the dispatch box is going to take the sting out of PMQs.

Lib Dems are a bit of an irrelevance at the moment. They'll only really challenge for seats in some Tory areas that would never vote Labour.

[Riquende]

Are there any further details than just that poll? Because it still shows the Tories having a double digit lead over the Lib Dems. Even polling at just 21% I don't see how the Lib Dems end up with more seats than the Tories!

I assume the Electoral Calculus website that produces these results uses a predictive model that assumes a fair amount of anti-Tory tactical voting, thus reflecting the Lib Dem vote being concentrated into a smaller number of seats they tend to be competitive in, whilst the Tory vote, whilst numerically much bigger, is going to be spread out across the country in vain marginal battles against Labour.

Even if the percentages somehow pan out, the model might be way off the mark and not produce the sorts of results they predict.

[Red Beret]

I assume the Electoral Calculus website that produces these results uses a predictive model that assumes a fair amount of anti-Tory tactical voting, thus reflecting the Lib Dem vote being concentrated into a smaller number of seats they tend to be competitive in, whilst the Tory vote, whilst numerically much bigger, is going to be spread out across the country in vain marginal battles against Labour.

Yeah, I just put the numbers into their predictor and came up with the numbers below. Now I understand what Lusty was driving at!

EDIT: looking at the numbers suggests the majority of Lib-Dem gains would ironically be in Scotland. Tories losing 342 seats, verses 337 gains for Labour, versus 33 gains for the LDs against 30 losses for the SNP. I'm sure that's just a quirk of the modelling though, as the Lib Dems are strongest in the southwest.

[Lusty]

Yeah, I just put the numbers into their predictor and came up with the numbers below. Now I understand what Lusty was driving at!

Yes that's exactly what I was doing... definetely didn't just copy an image I found off Twitter

I'm glad Riquende got you an explanation!

[Red Beret]

Yes that's exactly what I was doing... definetely didn't just copy an image I found off Twitter

I'm glad Riquende got you an explanation!

I posted a screen cap of what I came up with as well. 

[thaddeus]

I think it's fair to say that Labour has a secure lead over the Tories of at least 15 points. Anything on top of that is gravy. Lots and lots of gravy.

That 15 point lead looks almost baked in now.  None of the rabbits that the Tories have tried to pull out of the hat have remotely registered in the polls.

[PaulF]

After the result at OT at the weekend, I am not getting my hopes up about anything .

Might be a Trump\Braverman\Putin axis of horror this time next year.

[Red Beret]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/23/swapping-tory-leader-labour-lead-bigger-poll-opinium

Changing Tory leader could result in even larger Labour landslide, new poll shows

Labour lead would soar to 24 points if Kemi Badenoch or Suella Braverman became leader, according to Opinium poll

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/23/left-without-a-voice-october-general-election-could-leave-students-in-uk-unable-to-vote

‘Left without a voice’: October general election could leave students in UK unable to vote

Universities fear an autumn election will not leave undergraduates enough time to register

[thaddeus]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/23/swapping-tory-leader-labour-lead-bigger-poll-opinium

Changing Tory leader could result in even larger Labour landslide, new poll shows

Labour lead would soar to 24 points if Kemi Badenoch or Suella Braverman became leader, according to Opinium poll

No surprise there.  I'm a bit surprised though that their poll only showed a 1% gain for the Tories by switching to Mordaunt - she held a sword during the coronation donchaknow?!  It's probably indicative of brand Tory being in tatters.

That the four contenders if there was a leadership race are rumoured to be Mordaunt, Badenoch, Braverman and Cleverly says it all really.  The talent well was always low but now it's well and truly run dry.

[filopastry]

No surprise there.  I'm a bit surprised though that their poll only showed a 1% gain for the Tories by switching to Mordaunt - she held a sword during the coronation donchaknow?!  It's probably indicative of brand Tory being in tatters.

That the four contenders if there was a leadership race are rumoured to be Mordaunt, Badenoch, Braverman and Cleverly says it all really.  The talent well was always low but now it's well and truly run dry.

Don't forget Priti Patel, apparently also considered to be in the running.

[TSC]

Yet there will be no GE until Jan 25.  They’ll go full term unless Sunak is forced out, in which case he may call a GE before being ousted.

[Red Beret]

No surprise there.  I'm a bit surprised though that their poll only showed a 1% gain for the Tories by switching to Mordaunt - she held a sword during the coronation donchaknow?!  It's probably indicative of brand Tory being in tatters.

That the four contenders if there was a leadership race are rumoured to be Mordaunt, Badenoch, Braverman and Cleverly says it all really.  The talent well was always low but now it's well and truly run dry.

As I've said before, changing leader would be such a transparent rebranding attempt in order to cling to power it would only enrage voters more. People know nothing would really change. Plus, an actual leadership election could take upwards of 3 months. The country would just continue on in limbo as Tory infighting continued.

They would need a coronation; all the bloodletting would have to be done in private until one candidate beat down all the rest. The last time this went to the members, they picked Liz Fucking Truss. No way the Tories want a repeat of that.

They've actually got a better chance of recovering some ground in the polls if they go early, I reckon. If they hang on to the last possible moment they will get all the contempt they deserve.

[TSC]

As I've said before, changing leader would be such a transparent rebranding attempt in order to cling to power it would only enrage voters more. People know nothing would really change. Plus, an actual leadership election could take upwards of 3 months. The country would just continue on in limbo as Tory infighting continued.

They would need a coronation; all the bloodletting would have to be done in private until one candidate beat down all the rest. The last time this went to the members, they picked Liz Fucking Truss. No way the Tories want a repeat of that.

They've actually got a better chance of recovering some ground in the polls if they go early, I reckon. If they hang on to the last possible moment they will get all the contempt they deserve.

I think they cling on as long as possible, certainly at least until Autumn, maybe longer depending on polls come the Summer.

Wondered why Hunt is out on the media round this morning, as he was out a couple weeks ago pre budget.  But he’s out this morning shouting about the inflation drop, etc.  Of course when pressed on the (many) negative aspects he reverts to blaming Covid and Ukraine.  Didn’t appear to enjoy being asked about the Truss horror show.  Basically spending his time trying to rubbish Labour this morning.  Maybe in full pre-election mode. 

[Fromola]

As I've said before, changing leader would be such a transparent rebranding attempt in order to cling to power it would only enrage voters more. People know nothing would really change. Plus, an actual leadership election could take upwards of 3 months. The country would just continue on in limbo as Tory infighting continued.

They would need a coronation; all the bloodletting would have to be done in private until one candidate beat down all the rest. The last time this went to the members, they picked Liz Fucking Truss. No way the Tories want a repeat of that.

They've actually got a better chance of recovering some ground in the polls if they go early, I reckon. If they hang on to the last possible moment they will get all the contempt they deserve.

Problem is they've got nobody to take it over anyway because it's a party of lightweights after anyone who wasn't a true believer of the Brexit bullshit was kicked out by Johnson and it's produced the worst cabinets in history through this parliament. Mordaunt would have been a better choice to replace Johnson but the Mail and all the right wing lunatics wanted Truss and a 'true Tory budget' so fixed it for Truss to win. The next election was lost there and then.

I wonder if they'd have give it Dave till the election if he was an MP, but it's not practical from the Lords.

[oldfordie]

Problem is they've got nobody to take it over anyway because it's a party of lightweights after anyone who wasn't a true believer of the Brexit bullshit was kicked out by Johnson and it's produced the worst cabinets in history through this parliament. Mordaunt would have been a better choice to replace Johnson but the Mail and all the right wing lunatics wanted Truss and a 'true Tory budget' so fixed it for Truss to win. The next election was lost there and then.

I wonder if they'd have give it Dave till the election if he was an MP, but it's not practical from the Lords.

Spot on but the British people should take a lot of the blame as well and that includes many Labour supporters who laughed at the Torys who had the guts to put their safety and careers on the line to fight Johnson/ERG. it includes the last Labour leadership.  it was not only tactically politically incompetent, it put politics before decency, it's been covered and am best leaving it at that.
Reform are trying to appeal to these gullible ignorant people, the people who keep telling us they have lost faith in our politicians, the people who keep saying all politicians are the same are the very people who end up supporting the biggest Charlatans of all.

 

[Dr. Beaker]

Problem is they've got nobody to take it over anyway because it's a party of lightweights after anyone who wasn't a true believer of the Brexit bullshit was kicked out by Johnson and it's produced the worst cabinets in history through this parliament. Mordaunt would have been a better choice to replace Johnson but the Mail and all the right wing lunatics wanted Truss and a 'true Tory budget' so fixed it for Truss to win. The next election was lost there and then.

I wonder if they'd have give it Dave till the election if he was an MP, but it's not practical from the Lords.

He's the fucker who got us into this mess. Even stopped Whitehall from making contingency plans should the unthinkable happen, and then fucked off sharpish when it did happen. So I hope they do. Another unelected leader, and from the unelected House for good measure.

[thaddeus]

He's the fucker who got us into this mess. Even stopped Whitehall from making contingency plans should the unthinkable happen, and then fucked off sharpish when it did happen. So I hope they do. Another unelected leader, and from the unelected House for good measure.

It would give Dodgy Dave another thing to gloat to Bozo about and that's what it's all about for the Bullingdon boys.

[Wabaloolah]

Are there any further details than just that poll? Did you plug the numbers into a predictor? The Tories still have a double digit lead over the Lib Dems in that poll. Even polling at just 21% I don't see how the Lib Dems end up with more seats than the Tories!

Not that I would be complaining if they did like.

not sure the polls take into account tactical voting. In 1997 the Labour lead over the Tories in actual voting share was IIRC around 13 or 14% but tactical voting made the majority much higher than if there has been a uniform swing.

I agree though and I doubt very much that the Lib Dems will be one the official opposition, the Tories are likely to have at least around the 150 seat mark you would think

[Wabaloolah]

Yet there will be no GE until Jan 25.  They’ll go full term unless Sunak is forced out, in which case he may call a GE before being ousted.

I'll be amazed if they do that, the longer they wait the more of their core support will die through old age too <sick joke alert>

[Red Beret]

not sure the polls take into account tactical voting. In 1997 the Labour lead over the Tories in actual voting share was IIRC around 13 or 14% but tactical voting made the majority much higher than if there has been a uniform swing.

I agree though and I doubt very much that the Lib Dems will be one the official opposition, the Tories are likely to have at least around the 150 seat mark you would think

I read a recent Guardian article that said Labour are not in as strong a position over the Tories right now as they were at the same point before 1997, but I don't think that took into account just how much more damage Reform can do to the Tories than the Referendum Party did back in 1997.

It wasn't just tactical voting that helped Labour back then; The Referendum Party peeled off a lot of crucial votes in some critical seats. Back then we were still largely in a three party system; now it's five - six, if you count the SNP. There's many more variables in play this time around.

All Dodgy Dave managed to when he hung the country out to dry over Brexit was delay the inevitable.

[Red Beret]

From the Guardian newsfeed:

Labour has 99% chance of forming next government, says elections expert Prof John Curtice

A lot of political commentary in the media is framed by the notion that there is still some doubt about the outcome of the next general election. In part that is just sensible caution, because nothing in life is certain, and unexpected things happen; in part that is because parts of the print media are very rightwing, and find it hard to conceive that Labour can or should form a government; and in part that is because journalism is about narrative, and it spoils the story if you reveal the ending in advance.

But it is probably time to give up pretending that the Conservatives might win. There are few people in the world of political commentary more cautious than Prof Sir John Curtice, the psephologist and lead election analyst for the BBC, and even he has decided it’s all over for the Tories.

Curtice told Sam Blewett from Politico that there is now a “99% chance of Labour forming the next administration”. He said the chances of a Tory revival were small and that, even in the event of a hung parliament, Keir Starmer was better placed to become PM than Rishi Sunak. “The Labour party will be in a much stronger position to negotiate a minority government than the Conservatives because, apart from possibly the DUP, the Conservatives have no friends in the House of Commons,” Curtice said.

Nothing we didn't already know, or at least strongly suspect.

[Yorkykopite]

I see the new MP for Rochdale has been telling the Russian media that Barack Obama was behind the recent terrorist attack in Moscow. It was a UK-USA hit job. It couldn't have been ISIS he says because violence is forbidden during Ramadan.

Well done Rochdale.

[Byrnee]

I see the new MP for Rochdale has been telling the Russian media that Barack Obama was behind the recent terrorist attack in Moscow. It was a UK-USA hit job. It couldn't have been ISIS he says because violence is forbidden during Ramadan.

Well done Rochdale.

Despite ISIS-K claiming it, incredible. What a despicable horror show that man is. I mean it's got all the tropes hasn't it, Russia couldn't have worded it better themselves. Wonder how much he costs?

[Wabaloolah]

I see the new MP for Rochdale has been telling the Russian media that Barack Obama was behind the recent terrorist attack in Moscow. It was a UK-USA hit job. It couldn't have been ISIS he says because violence is forbidden during Ramadan.

Well done Rochdale.

he's a fucking weird bloke, even if there was any truth, WTF would it have to do with a President that left office 8 years ago!

[killer-heels]

he's a fucking weird bloke, even if there was any truth, WTF would it have to do with a President that left office 8 years ago!

Illuminati innit.

[Red Beret]

At first I thought this related to council elections. Then I saw the lower headline.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/30/conservatives-set-for-worst-election-result-yet-research-shows

Conservatives set for worst election result yet, research shows

Survey of 15,000 people suggests even party leader Rishi Sunak’s North Yorkshire seat is at risk

The Conservatives are on course for their worst election result, winning fewer than 100 seats, according to a new poll.

The seat-by-seat analysis gives the Tories 98 constituencies compared with Labour’s 468, giving Sir Keir Starmer a 286-seat majority, the Sunday Times has reported.

The 15,000-person poll, conducted by agency Survation on behalf of Best for Britain, gives Labour a 45% vote share with a 19-point lead over the Conservatives.

Rishi Sunak’s party is on track to win 98 seats with none in Scotland or Wales, according to the research. It also suggests the prime minister is at risk of losing his own constituency, the new Richmond & Northallerton seat in North Yorkshire, to Labour with his lead less than 2.5 percentage points.

The analysis forecasts that Reform UK will come second in seven seats and achieve an overall vote share of 8.5%, just behind the Liberal Democrats on 10.4%

The poll also suggests the Scottish National Party would pick up 41 seats, the Liberal Democrats 22 and Plaid Cymru two.

Naomi Smith, Best for Britain’s chief executive, said: “With the polling showing swathes of voters turning their backs on the Tories, it’s clear that this will be a change election.”

In 2019 the Conservatives had 365 seats, Labour 203, the SNP 48, the Lib Dems 11 and Plaid four.

The findings come after Labour sources said the party’s overall financial position remained strong despite membership subscriptions falling off because donations were healthy and unions were expected to give very substantial backing to the election effort.

Labour has suffered more than a 23,000 fall in membership over the past two months after controversies over its policy on Gaza and its U-turn on green investment, according to figures released to its National Executive Committee (NEC).

The party’s general secretary, David Evans, revealed that membership, which had stood at 390,000 in January, had plummeted to 366,604 at the latest count, with more than 11,700 of these being in arrears. Labour membership reached a peak at the end of 2019 when it hit more than 532,000.

Luke Akehurst, a member of the NEC, said: “Party membership is still at historically high levels. Labour only had 150,000 members at the end of its last period in office [in 2010],” he said.

“The state of the opinion polls suggest there is no correlation between membership and electoral popularity.”

[Libertine]

At first I thought this related to council elections. Then I saw the lower headline.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/30/conservatives-set-for-worst-election-result-yet-research-shows

Conservatives set for worst election result yet, research shows

Struggle to believe a model that has the Tories on <100 and the Lib Dems stuck on 22. If the Tories are going to be obliterated, then they will have to lose dozens of southern rural/suburban seats to them.

[TepidT2O]

That MRP poll includes very little weighting for tactical voting.
It’s likely a best case scenario for the Tories as the polls stand right now.

[killer-heels]

Struggle to believe a model that has the Tories on <100 and the Lib Dems stuck on 22. If the Tories are going to be obliterated, then they will have to lose dozens of southern rural/suburban seats to them.

The Lib Dems have had zero traction these past few months. They have been more relevant when the Tories have been stronger, yet now nothing in the news cycle is mentioned about them.

[Red Beret]

Struggle to believe a model that has the Tories on <100 and the Lib Dems stuck on 22. If the Tories are going to be obliterated, then they will have to lose dozens of southern rural/suburban seats to them.

It could be a combination of factors. A huge drop in Tory turnout combined with Lib Dem voters surging towards Labour could potentially generate a result close to this. One of the polls I saw recently suggested that the Lib Dems most likely chance for gains would actually be in Scotland.

At the end of the day, maybe the Lib Dems get 40 seats. If Labour are pulling in 450 it's not really going to make that much of a difference. I think most of the focus is on how badly the Tories are expecting to do. More and more of these articles are popping up, and they will definitely affect the psyche of the electorate.

[Wabaloolah]

Oh please let Fishy lose his seat, that really would be the icing on the cake

[Red Beret]

You really have to wonder what the long term repercussions could be for the Tory Party if they end up on less than 100 seats. Would it be just a temporary setback, or will it signal a genuine sea change in British politics?

[TSC]

At first I thought this related to council elections. Then I saw the lower headline.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/30/conservatives-set-for-worst-election-result-yet-research-shows

Conservatives set for worst election result yet, research shows

Survey of 15,000 people suggests even party leader Rishi Sunak’s North Yorkshire seat is at risk

The Conservatives are on course for their worst election result, winning fewer than 100 seats, according to a new poll.

The seat-by-seat analysis gives the Tories 98 constituencies compared with Labour’s 468, giving Sir Keir Starmer a 286-seat majority, the Sunday Times has reported.

The 15,000-person poll, conducted by agency Survation on behalf of Best for Britain, gives Labour a 45% vote share with a 19-point lead over the Conservatives.

Rishi Sunak’s party is on track to win 98 seats with none in Scotland or Wales, according to the research. It also suggests the prime minister is at risk of losing his own constituency, the new Richmond & Northallerton seat in North Yorkshire, to Labour with his lead less than 2.5 percentage points.

The analysis forecasts that Reform UK will come second in seven seats and achieve an overall vote share of 8.5%, just behind the Liberal Democrats on 10.4%

The poll also suggests the Scottish National Party would pick up 41 seats, the Liberal Democrats 22 and Plaid Cymru two.

Naomi Smith, Best for Britain’s chief executive, said: “With the polling showing swathes of voters turning their backs on the Tories, it’s clear that this will be a change election.”

In 2019 the Conservatives had 365 seats, Labour 203, the SNP 48, the Lib Dems 11 and Plaid four.

The findings come after Labour sources said the party’s overall financial position remained strong despite membership subscriptions falling off because donations were healthy and unions were expected to give very substantial backing to the election effort.

Labour has suffered more than a 23,000 fall in membership over the past two months after controversies over its policy on Gaza and its U-turn on green investment, according to figures released to its National Executive Committee (NEC).

The party’s general secretary, David Evans, revealed that membership, which had stood at 390,000 in January, had plummeted to 366,604 at the latest count, with more than 11,700 of these being in arrears. Labour membership reached a peak at the end of 2019 when it hit more than 532,000.

Luke Akehurst, a member of the NEC, said: “Party membership is still at historically high levels. Labour only had 150,000 members at the end of its last period in office [in 2010],” he said.

“The state of the opinion polls suggest there is no correlation between membership and electoral popularity.”

Reported on sky news this morning too.

https://news.sky.com/story/tories-could-be-left-with-fewer-than-100-mps-after-next-general-election-major-poll-says-13105117

[TSC]

Meanwhile, the Thames is as per full of shit

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68701486

[Red Beret]

The last major MRP poll done by electoral calculus was 27 February. It's best guess prediction was 113 seats for the Tories, with as few as 43 and as many as 239. That was down on their previous poll by about a dozen seats.

I imagine things have changed again.

[Lad]

New poll this morning in the Observer says the tories could win just 98 seats. I mean...that many !
Who are these people who think that voting Conservative is the best way forward ? Strange.

[Fromola]

New poll this morning in the Observer says the tories could win just 98 seats. I mean...that many !
Who are these people who think that voting Conservative is the best way forward ? Strange.

Yeah, saying they'll win around 100 seats and Sunak's seat is at risk seem contradictory statements. Sunak's is one of the safest Tory seats.

But if he loses half his vote to Reform and Lab/Lib/Green voters all unite behind Labour (who were 2nd last time in that seat) then it's under threat. But that'll be the same for pretty much every Tory seat.

When it comes down to it it'll depend just how many come out for Reform and how much enthusiasm there is for Labour, as well as the Tories vote going to shit. One of those 3 is clear.

If you look at 1997 when the Tories vote collapsed they won 165 seats but still got 30% of the vote. The Lib Dems were strong then as well with 16% and a lot of Tories stayed at home. If Reform get around 16% it'll massively eat into their vote allowing Labour and Lib Dems to take a lot of their seats. And they'll lose plenty of seats without Reform anyway.

[TepidT2O]

Oh please let Fishy lose his seat, that really would be the icing on the cake

I think it’s exceptionally unlikely. A ruling PM has never lost their seat before. Balfour came close in 1906, but he resigned as PM just before the election.

Rees Mogg, now he’s the one to stay up for.

[Fromola]

I think it’s exceptionally unlikely. A ruling PM has never lost their seat before. Balfour came close in 1906, but he resigned as PM just before the election.

Rees Mogg, now he’s the one to stay up for.

The existential threat of Reform, at least for this election, means they could potentially lose any seat, but Sunak's is about as safe as they've got.

Even in the last election, which Tories won at a landslide, Rees Mogg got 50% of the vote. Lab/Lib/Green got the other 50%. An electoral pact there between them and a strong Reform candidate could easily see him off.

[killer-heels]

You really have to wonder what the long term repercussions could be for the Tory Party if they end up on less than 100 seats. Would it be just a temporary setback, or will it signal a genuine sea change in British politics?

Temporary, most likely 2 term set back.