Topic: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"

[Dr. Beaker]

I don't think we should over egg the campaign ran by Corbyn.  Teresa May ran perhaps the worst campaign I can ever remember (arguably even worse than Gordon Brown) and yet still picked up 55 more seats than Corbyn.  I appreciate the popular vote was much closer than that but if he couldn't topple "weak and wobbly" May then he's hardly a master campaigner.

Having said all that, nothing would please me more than a repeat performance of Labour over-achieving.  Anything but a Tory majority.

Labour was widely expected, on here and beyond, to go into electoral oblivion for at least the next couple of electoral cycles or even in some cases, a generation - and that was before Corbyn had even been selected! Then Corbyn came along. That was why she went for a snap election in the second place, (in the first place she wasn't going to have a snap election).

The sight of Corbyn distributing loaves and fishes to literally thousands of (literally) joyous adherents, night after night after night, contrasted sharply with the Tory battle bus and it's three man audience of easily recognisable paid stooges, and the effect on the single watt TV audience shocked everyone.

It's weird (and maybe the powder is now damp), but it shouldn't be underestimated. Never overestimate the single watt TV audience.

Maybe he understands this stuff better than us politics dilettantes.

[Raid]

Anna Soubry standing in Brexstowe, pretty much guarantees a Labour win you'd think. Majority of around 500, Tories, BXP, Independent for Change all going up against Labour. If the Labour vote holds up reasonably well and she takes Tory remainers then it really should be an easy Labour win

It’s a possible target seat for sure, however Brexstowe voted leave and if I’m not mistaken backed it up
with a Brexit Party vote in the Euro elections. Every chance that it remains in Tory hands.

[Dr. Beaker]

Yep,this is my worry as well. the Tory MPs who actually stood up to the ERG nutters have now had enough, they will be replaced by yes men who will shout and scream support for whatever the Tory leader argues, the countries future comes 2nd but it's not just that,we are also loosing many skilled intelligent brave MPs from both parties. if people thought Parliament was full of charlatans then wait till they see the next Parliament. they will face far less scrutiny as Parliaments talent dwindles.

Who  do you fancy as their next leader then Oldie, a second bite for IDS, Priti Patel, Andrew Rosindell, (outside bet on Yaxley-Lennon), or my personal favourite Francois - mind you that's just for comedy value.

[oldfordie]

Who  do you fancy as their next leader then Oldie, a second bite for IDS, Priti Patel, Andrew Rosindell, (outside bet on Yaxley-Lennon), or my personal favourite Francois - mind you that's just for comedy value.

I haven't got a good track record when it comes to predicting who will be the next Tory leader. in fact it's the kiss of death for them 
Had a bet on Hammond a couple of years ago and he's finished, convinced Amber Rudd would take over from May and lost a few bob on her as well and she's pis... off as well 

[Wabaloolah]

I'm the same with Corbyn but I'm sure your conscious can cope with the anti-semitism he has allowed in the party and his version of Brexit (he doesnt want to remain) then so be it. I cant and I wont. I'll be voting for a Remain party.

I don't like Corbyn particularly, but I would much rather have a Labour government than a government that contains the likes of Jo Swinson who was at the very heart of the disgusting coalition government of 2010.

In any case, the Liberals have no chance in my constituency.

Labour have a huge majority but could in theory be threatened by Frottage's lot. I'll take Corbyn's Labour over Frottage any day of the week

[Wabaloolah]

Tactical voting link, which will tell you the best party to vote for to get an anti-Brexit majority in the Commons

https://www.getvoting.org/

[Wabaloolah]

The standing of the parties is similar. But there are significant differences to 2017.

For non-political-geeks, Corbyn was an unknown in 2017 and many people liked his campaigning style, the promise of a 'different kind of politics', etc. That doesn't work twice. For voters interested in Brexit (either side), Labour's triangulation - while possibly holding the PLP together between polar extremes - has been a nightmare to articulate. It's finally become (somewhat) simpler, but is still more complex than 'Get Brexit Done' or 'Remain/Revoke'. For political geeks and anyone on twitter who isn't an outrider, antisemitism is a growing problem (and one that resonates with a wider group of people than old photos of JC with Gerry Adams).

Labour's rise in the polls in 2017 was a product of a decent manifesto and a surprisingly effective campaign by the leader. I can't see the latter being repeated - and the manifesto could be the best in history, but historically vast swathes of the electorate now regard all politicians simply as liars. A new (effective) leader (untainted by AS and with some credible proposals to combat it) could close the gap. I don't see how Corbyn can, when he's offended most of the prospective blocs of support.

well we shall see, I think the election result will be much closer than many currently think it will be

34-26-19 tonight Tory-Lab-Lib with BXP on 12

I seriously doubt if those figures are repeated at the election that we would see a Tory majority.

Plaid Cymru, Green and Liberals are talking about a progressive Remain Alliance and not actually standing candidates against Labour candidates who are pro-Remain.

This will be an election that will be decided on tactical voting. Even if the Tories win a large percentage of votes, voting tactically can stop them winning and kill Johnson's deal stone dead

[Skeeve]

Plaid Cymru, Green and Liberals are talking about a progressive Remain Alliance and not actually standing candidates against Labour candidates who are pro-Remain.

This will be an election that will be decided on tactical voting. Even if the Tories win a large percentage of votes, voting tactically can stop them winning and kill Johnson's deal stone dead

Shame that labour won't reciprocate and will happily campaign strongly enough in places they have never won to hand seats to the tories.

[Trada]

Why are people still going on about Brexit?

There are just 2 outcomes now.

1 A Labour deal of a PV on a soft Brexit or remain

2 Johnsons hard Brexit or maybe a no-deal if no agreement is made at the end of 2020.


Oh and I guess the Lib Dems proping up the Tory deal saying they will take the edge off of the deal..... You know like they did by agreeing with the Tories about taking money away from the poor and disabled giving the go ahead with austerity ... but on the upside a carrier bag costs 5p.

[cloggypop]

Tactical voting link, which will tell you the best party to vote for to get an anti-Brexit majority in the Commons

https://www.getvoting.org/

Hmm...

@LeftieStats: Your "tactical vote dashboard" is telling voters to vote Lib Dem in Truro & Falmouth.

Here was the 2017 result in Truro & Falmouth:

CON: 44% (-)
LAB: 38% (+23)
LD: 15% (-2)
OTH: 3% (-17) https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1189518504606736384

[Trada]

Anyway thats me finished talking about politics on here until after the election or I will just get banned again like every election lately and ive just returned from a few days muted its not worth the hassle.

Come on Jeremy!!!!!

[TheShanklyGates]

Why are people still going on about Brexit?

Why do think we're having this election?

[Sammy5IsAlive]

Why are people still going on about Brexit?

There are just 2 outcomes now.

1 A Labour deal of a PV on a soft Brexit or remain

2 Johnsons hard Brexit or maybe a no-deal if no agreement is made at the end of 2020.


Oh and I guess the Lib Dems proping up the Tory deal saying they will take the edge off of the deal..... You know like they did by agreeing with the Tories about taking money away from the poor and disabled giving the go ahead with austerity ... but on the upside a carrier bag costs 5p.

Labour aren't going to win an outright majority and their only potential coalition partners are explicitly pro-remain. So the 'Labour deal' is a non-starter.

[fudge]

Why are people still going on about Brexit?

There are just 2 outcomes now.

1 A Labour deal of a PV on a soft Brexit or remain

2 Johnsons hard Brexit or maybe a no-deal if no agreement is made at the end of 2020.


Oh and I guess the Lib Dems proping up the Tory deal saying they will take the edge off of the deal..... You know like they did by agreeing with the Tories about taking money away from the poor and disabled giving the go ahead with austerity ... but on the upside a carrier bag costs 5p.

Yeah and the little matter of a tax free personal allowance of £10600 for every single person as a truly disruptive way of helping out millions of families. But don’t let that affect your bullshit agenda that day after day reads like the script for a new sketch of the Peoples Front of Judea helping to corrode the anti Tory vote, because you fuckers abdicated responsibility to govern when it was no fun doing it without any money.

[fudge]

Yeah and the little matter of a tax free personal allowance of £10600 for every single person as a truly disruptive way of helping out millions of families. But don’t let that affect your bullshit agenda that day after day reads like the script for a new sketch of the Peoples Front of Judea helping to corrode the anti Tory vote, because you fuckers abdicated responsibility to govern when it was no fun doing it without any money.

Sorry I was wrong to post the above , it was reactionary and over the top. It also made reference to Judea which of course we all know wouldn’t pass this governments anti Semite agenda.

[hide5seek]

If the Lib Dems hadn't fucked the country over during the Coalition government, it's unlikely that the Tories would have had a majority in 2015 and the referendum would not have happened.

They got blamed for supporting Tory austerity measures and Tuition fees, allowed for the introduction of the Bedroom Tax, Universal Credit etc etc.

If your conscious can handle that then go grab a bit of the Lib Dems again. Personally I would trust them as far as I could spew them

So, if your in a constituency where Libs have a chance of stopping the Tories but voting Labour means the Tories win?

[hide5seek]

I don't like Corbyn particularly, but I would much rather have a Labour government than a government that contains the likes of Jo Swinson who was at the very heart of the disgusting coalition government of 2010.

In any case, the Liberals have no chance in my constituency.

Labour have a huge majority but could in theory be threatened by Frottage's lot. I'll take Corbyn's Labour over Frottage any day of the week

Your not going to get aLabour government under Corbyn, that is lala land. Any Lib Dem MP is better than a Tory.

[Libertine]

Hmm...

@LeftieStats: Your "tactical vote dashboard" is telling voters to vote Lib Dem in Truro & Falmouth.

Here was the 2017 result in Truro & Falmouth:

CON: 44% (-)
LAB: 38% (+23)
LD: 15% (-2)
OTH: 3% (-17) https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1189518504606736384

Important not to infer likely voting in 2019 too directly from the 2017 result.

The Lib Dems are polling 2-3 times higher now than they were then. Many seats will return to form as Tory-Lib Dem battles. Look at that constituency poll in north east Somerset as an example.

[gazzalfc]

Happy 'Dead in a ditch' day everyone

[Umbarto]

If only.

[Andy @ Allerton!]

Do you think Corbyn realises how much he's fucking pissing off Labour Remain voters?

He's an absolute shithouse.

[Andy @ Allerton!]

Not to downplay Brexit, it's a big issue, but it's still just one issue in this election. Also I think Brexit is inevitable now so you're basically voting for a Labour Brexit or a Tory one.

Not a hard choice is it?

And if anyone is stupid enough to be duped by the Lib Dems again then quite frankly you can fuck off. Should only be voted for in Lid Dem/Tory marginals and even then I'd feel sick about having to do it. They'll go with the Tories again if the chance presents itself.

So vote for the country to be utterly fucked for 30-50 years and the NHS to be destroyed and the fabric of society to be ripped up and our social contract to be null and void or vote for the country to be utterly fucked for 30-50 years and the NHS to be destroyed and the fabric of society to be ripped up and our social contract to be null and void?

Tough choice.

I've got a better idea. Fuck Corbyn.

Yeah Brexit will likely happen, but for millions of Labour Remain voters to vote Labour and to be told by that c*nt they voted leave....

[TepidT2O]

So vote for the country to be utterly fucked for 30-50 years and the NHS to be destroyed and the fabric of society to be ripped up and our social contract to be null and void or vote for the country to be utterly fucked for 30-50 years and the NHS to be destroyed and the fabric of society to be ripped up and our social contract to be null and void?

Tough choice.

I've got a better idea. Fuck Corbyn.

Yeah Brexit will likely happen, but for millions of Labour Remain voters to vote Labour and to be told by that c*nt they voted leave....

Are you trying to tell me that having the most unpopular leader on electoral history might harm Labours chances?

Surely not!

[Dr. Beaker]

Corbo just giving one of his sermons to a lock-out in Battersea.

Actually I can well see Johnson turning up to massive attendances around the country - it will be shaved heads and tattoos all over the place with plenty of violence all round.

The country can observe and decide if they really want to be on that particular bandwagon.

[Red Viper]

Lots to respond to over the past couple of pages but I can't be bothered going over and over this. I'll just leave with the point that I think helping to facilitate a Tory majority because you don't like Jeremy Corbyn is really stupid.

[Cpt_Reina]

I just dont know what people who supposedly consider themselves liberal or left leaning would find so offensive about this Labour party forming a government.

Beyond their stance on not being overtly remain/revoke on Brexit, they're offering the least worst solution on a confirmatory vote but apparently thats not enough...but whatever, beyond the Brexit stuff what is it that is so awful about them forming a government to you centrists?

Where are the policies which turn you off to such an extent that you'd risk another Tory win?

Seems its mostly personality driven to me, in which case you deserve the Tories and the Brexit they'll deliver.

[vagabond]

I just dont know what people who supposedly consider themselves liberal or left leaning would find so offensive about this Labour party forming a government.

Beyond their stance on not being overtly remain/revoke on Brexit, they're offering the least worst solution on a confirmatory vote but apparently thats not enough...but whatever, beyond the Brexit stuff what is it that is so awful about them forming a government to you centrists?

Where are the policies which turn you off to such an extent that you'd risk another Tory win?

Seems its mostly personality driven to me, in which case you deserve the Tories and the Brexit they'll deliver.

I'm with you in spirit, but it's hard to look beyond the brexit stuff. It's not just one issue amongst others, it is the issue.

[Red Viper]

Sian posted this in the other thread and I think it's worth putting in here as well. Brexit has clouded everything so much these past three years that the real issues seem to have been forgotten.

Brexit or no Brexit, these Tory bastards need to be gone, NOW. End of.

Leaving this here and then I’m off.

Vote for your party, vote tactically, but please make sure the Tories go. I was born in the dying days of Thatcher, my adult years have been blighted by austerity, I want better for my kids.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/30/food-banks-childrens-books-britain-hungry-election

[Cpt_Reina]

I'm with you in spirit, but it's hard to look beyond the brexit stuff. It's not just one issue amongst others, it is the issue.

It is.

But we've ended up where we've ended up, people voted for Brexit and in the 3 years in between its looking now like people are largely now fed up of it and are fatigued enough to just want it done for the most part.

So in light of that, I dont think Labour's stance to allow the people the final say on a deal vs remaining is really anything beyond the pale. Certainly no reason not to vote for them, it seems fair and it seems prudent (to me).

So what else is there that's really a reason to vote for Labour and to risk another hung parliament or Tory majority?

Are the potential Labour voters in here really turned off by their promises to make the UK greener? To close tax loopholes and tax the wealthy? Is it offensive that Labour want to end homelessness?

Where are misgivings? Genuinely curious.

[classycarra]

Lots to respond to over the past couple of pages but I can't be bothered going over and over this. I'll just leave with the point that I think helping to facilitate a Tory majority because you don't like Jeremy Corbyn and/or the Lib Dems is really stupid.

[vagabond]

It is.

But we've ended up where we've ended up, people voted for Brexit and in the 3 years in between its looking now like people are largely now fed up of it and are fatigued enough to just want it done for the most part.

So in light of that, I dont think Labour's stance to allow the people the final say on a deal vs remaining is really anything beyond the pale. Certainly no reason not to vote for them, it seems fair and it seems prudent (to me).

So what else is there that's really a reason to vote for Labour and to risk another hung parliament or Tory majority?

Are the potential Labour voters in here really turned off by their promises to make the UK greener? To close tax loopholes and tax the wealthy? Is it offensive that Labour want to end homelessness?

Where are misgivings? Genuinely curious.

When I said I'm with you in spirit, I mean that I also want a socialist as the leader, and am fully supportive of the vast majority of Labour's policies. The misgivings are entirely about brexit.

But I can't speak for others here.

[classycarra]

Are the potential Labour voters in here really turned off by their promises to make the UK greener? To close tax loopholes and tax the wealthy? Is it offensive that Labour want to end homelessness?

Where are misgivings? Genuinely curious.

So genuine

I'll avoid all your weird framing and add a couple of lesser-spotted criticisms of this iteration of Labour.

Personally I didn't like that the last manifesto offered to redistribute resources to middle class young people. It widens inequality, which is about as far the opposite of my economic political point of view as a party can get.

Also appeared to prioritise nationalising things like rail franchises and the post office which, considering the costs involved (assuming they don't seize assets would cost billions and take years and years, seemed like some insanely poor triage. Personally I want a Labour party that will prioritise reversing cuts and ring fencing funding - particularly to local authority public health. Unfortunately Corbyn et al's use of "anti-austerity" appeared to be (a lot of) lip service/rhetoric, and a handy catch-all word that ultimately didn't seem as important in the manifesto as they made out.

Anyway, that's just a couple of my misgivings (that have steered away from any personality politics) with the current shadow cabinet. I'm gonna be voting for Keir Starmer in this election, as it stands.

[Red Viper]

I've already stated if you need to vote Lib Dems to keep out the Torys then do it whereas some of you in this thread are actively advocating not voting for Labour cos of Corbyn.

[classycarra]

I've already stated if you need to vote Lib Dems to keep out the Torys then do it whereas some of you in this thread are actively advocating not voting for Labour cos of Corbyn.

It wasn't a response to yours, just an addition (also based on quite a few in this thread)

[Andy82lfc]

So genuine

I'll avoid all your weird framing and add a couple of lesser-spotted criticisms of this iteration of Labour.

Personally I didn't like that the last manifesto offered to redistribute resources to middle class young people. It widens inequality, which is about as far the opposite of my economic political point of view as a party can get.

Also appeared to prioritise nationalising things like rail franchises and the post office which, considering the costs involved (assuming they don't seize assets would cost billions and take years and years, seemed like some insanely poor triage. Personally I want a Labour party that will prioritise reversing cuts and ring fencing funding - particularly to local authority public health. Unfortunately Corbyn et al's use of "anti-austerity" appeared to be (a lot of) lip service/rhetoric, and a handy catch-all word that ultimately didn't seem as important in the manifesto as they made out.

Anyway, that's just a couple of my misgivings (that have steered away from any personality politics) with the current shadow cabinet. I'm gonna be voting for Keir Starmer in this election, as it stands.

I think Cpt Reina is pointing out that, yes you maybe right in everything you said, lets throw some more into that fire too, yet it's still galaxys away from 5 more years of tory rule, absolute galaxys. Then the brexit thing, yes Corbyn is being a c*nt, he will continue to be a c*nt, but its at least an offer of a referendum vs torys again and an almost definite exit. Or lib dems who will not get enough seats to revoke, so it at best will be them and torys and a ref at a massive push. So labour and a ref or ref plus lib dems and tory rule.

So I agree with what he says wholeheartedly. Labour are dogshit but I'd rather them a million times over than tory rule again. If they get put back in after all the damage they have done they will bulldoze the shit out of everything they can. All that aside I'll be voting tactically to keep them out no matter what.

[filopastry]

I've already stated if you need to vote Lib Dems to keep out the Torys then do it whereas some of you in this thread are actively advocating not voting for Labour cos of Corbyn.

I would say both sides have the same issue, a lot of LD and Lab supporters will be unwilling to vote for the other party for various reasons.

[Welshred]

When I said I'm with you in spirit, I mean that I also want a socialist as the leader, and am fully supportive of the vast majority of Labour's policies. The misgivings are entirely about brexit.

But I can't speak for others here.

But parties with socialist leaders historically dont get elected in this country...

[Welshred]

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 41% (+8)
LAB: 24% (-)
LDEM: 20% (-3)
BREX: 7% (-3)
GRN: 3% (-1)

via @IpsosMORI, 25 - 28 Oct

Jezza is playing a blinder 

[Andy @ Allerton!]

It is.

But we've ended up where we've ended up, people voted for Brexit and in the 3 years in between its looking now like people are largely now fed up of it and are fatigued enough to just want it done for the most part.

So in light of that, I dont think Labour's stance to allow the people the final say on a deal vs remaining is really anything beyond the pale. Certainly no reason not to vote for them, it seems fair and it seems prudent (to me).

So what else is there that's really a reason to vote for Labour and to risk another hung parliament or Tory majority?

Are the potential Labour voters in here really turned off by their promises to make the UK greener? To close tax loopholes and tax the wealthy? Is it offensive that Labour want to end homelessness?

Where are misgivings? Genuinely curious.

People want Brexit done because they are tired of it.

Ah-ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

Once Brexit is 'done' there will nothing in the news for the next 30 years. You can't 'do' Brexit - once it happens, it's a neverending clusterfuck of Deals/Negotiations/horse trading/giveaways/compromises/shit for the country.

[oldfordie]

Corbyns just given a election speech. talked about Labours Brexit stance.
Sky political commentator was asked his opinion on his speech. Corbyns saying he will get a deal in 6 months and put it to the people with the option to remain, he thinks Corbyn will support the Labour deal to leave the EU.