Topic: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"

[Wabaloolah]

It's the best option that we have because it's the only system we have.

No offence, but if you're sitting this one out you are part of the problem.

Spot on, this election is crucial, one extra voter could really make a difference, vote tactically and vote for the person who is most likely to defeat the Tories but don't not vote

[ShakaHislop]

the Tories will get nowhere near a 50 seat majority, don't believe the polls, they will narrow and we still have some polling companies giving leads as low as 4%.  Labour may lose some seats, but think the Tories will lose seats too, the Tories will be wiped out in Scotland and will lose seats in London too, possibly even Johnson himself who has a majority of 5000, tiny for a party leader, would be good if someone like Frottage went up against him as it could wreck his whole campaign if he has to spend time on the ground fighting his own battle locally.

Corbyn for all his critics, did well in 2017, really surprised me as thought Labour were looking at meltdown levels, below 160 seats was a possibility, but he came back well and when broadcasting rules kick in as they do in election campaigns and an equal footing must be given to the Opposition then those polls will narrow.

You've also got to factor in the BXP, yes they could challenge Labour in their heartlands but will also be a headache for the Tories in their seats. Then you have a resurgent Lib Dems in the South West and in and around London too.

Although the Tories will probably win the highest percentage of votes, that will not necessarily translate into a majority when tactical voting comes into play.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say the Tories will get less seats than they won in 2017.

I said on a political site before the 2017 election that the Tories wouldn't win a majority, I also felt before 2015 that Cameron would win a majority even though the polls were predicting the opposite in both.

I still think it is all up for grabs and the last few years has shown that the Tory vote is flaky.

Don't be disheartened, yet......

Labour still ended up 50+ seats behind the Tories and have been battered at national elections since.

[gamble]

Brexit casts a shadow over this general election, there may be talk of domestic policy from the parties but I feel it will boil down to a pseudo vote on the referendum.

I'm yet to see (and open to evidence) of any poll where Remain outweighs Leave. There isn't much in it according to some polls but it still suggests there are more leavers than remainers. I can only see scenarios where the Tories are the biggest party.

Bit worried about the turnout possibility in December as well as election fatigue. Plus there must be very few undecided voters after the heavy political issues that have dominated life in the UK - surely everyone has an opinion now?

[oldfordie]

the Tories will get nowhere near a 50 seat majority, don't believe the polls, they will narrow and we still have some polling companies giving leads as low as 4%.  Labour may lose some seats, but think the Tories will lose seats too, the Tories will be wiped out in Scotland and will lose seats in London too, possibly even Johnson himself who has a majority of 5000, tiny for a party leader, would be good if someone like Frottage went up against him as it could wreck his whole campaign if he has to spend time on the ground fighting his own battle locally.

Corbyn for all his critics, did well in 2017, really surprised me as thought Labour were looking at meltdown levels, below 160 seats was a possibility, but he came back well and when broadcasting rules kick in as they do in election campaigns and an equal footing must be given to the Opposition then those polls will narrow.

You've also got to factor in the BXP, yes they could challenge Labour in their heartlands but will also be a headache for the Tories in their seats. Then you have a resurgent Lib Dems in the South West and in and around London too.

Although the Tories will probably win the highest percentage of votes, that will not necessarily translate into a majority when tactical voting comes into play.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say the Tories will get less seats than they won in 2017.

I said on a political site before the 2017 election that the Tories wouldn't win a majority, I also felt before 2015 that Cameron would win a majority even though the polls were predicting the opposite in both.

I still think it is all up for grabs and the last few years has shown that the Tory vote is flaky.

Don't be disheartened, yet......

If voters vote on how they feel about Corbyn and Brexit then I think Labour will lose many seats.
If voters vote tactically to keep the Tories out then they may have a chance of returning a minority government. it will have to work both ways though, lib dem voters will have to support Labour when it looks a 2 horse race between Labour and the Tories. I would hope this happens but there is a lot of anger towards Labour by remain voters now compared to 2017. am praying for a hung Parliament as a Labour or Lib Dem majority is not going to happen.

[Raid]

Heidi Allen standing down due to abuse/threats.

Heidi Allen is standing down as she has no chance of winning her seat again without Tory colours

[TSC]

The fact that the current Tory govt is underpinned by effectively a ‘hard right’ largely unknown faction is the dangerous aspect. By ‘unknown’ I refer to being in government with a majority for the next 5 years.  Snippets have been seen via the rhetoric in interviews over the last couple of years, and it hasn’t been pretty, except to voters of that mindset.  For anyone else (most on here) its a case of hoping the polls are proved inaccurate.

[Robinred]

the Tories will get nowhere near a 50 seat majority, don't believe the polls, they will narrow and we still have some polling companies giving leads as low as 4%.  Labour may lose some seats, but think the Tories will lose seats too, the Tories will be wiped out in Scotland and will lose seats in London too, possibly even Johnson himself who has a majority of 5000, tiny for a party leader, would be good if someone like Frottage went up against him as it could wreck his whole campaign if he has to spend time on the ground fighting his own battle locally.

Corbyn for all his critics, did well in 2017, really surprised me as thought Labour were looking at meltdown levels, below 160 seats was a possibility, but he came back well and when broadcasting rules kick in as they do in election campaigns and an equal footing must be given to the Opposition then those polls will narrow.

You've also got to factor in the BXP, yes they could challenge Labour in their heartlands but will also be a headache for the Tories in their seats. Then you have a resurgent Lib Dems in the South West and in and around London too.

Although the Tories will probably win the highest percentage of votes, that will not necessarily translate into a majority when tactical voting comes into play.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say the Tories will get less seats than they won in 2017.

I said on a political site before the 2017 election that the Tories wouldn't win a majority, I also felt before 2015 that Cameron would win a majority even though the polls were predicting the opposite in both.

I still think it is all up for grabs and the last few years has shown that the Tory vote is flaky.

Don't be disheartened, yet......

I cannot share your positivity. May was a woeful campaigner, Johnson is far more appealing to dyed in the wool Brexiters, and will have the dark arts of some unsavoury, but politically savvy people in charge of his campaign.

I sincerely hope you’re right and I’m wrong of course.

[Red Beret]

Who finished second to Boris last time?  Best thing the opposition parties could do is stand a candidate down and pool their resources to get him out.  Maybe even get a (celebrity?) candidate to stand as an independent.

[El Lobo]

You guys are amazing. First you vote to leave, then you pick someone who wanted to remain to negotiate the exit deal. Then you get a new guy in charge, who sees it as a victory to have a new election.

Expect a whole line of Swedish politicians to come over to study all this. Our guys are probably incometent enough to take your mess to a new level, but they are looking for a bit of guidance.

‘We’ didn’t vote for any of those things.

[drmick]

So what did the Lib Dems and the SNP achieve today that they couldn't have by simply voting for an election under FTPA last night? No votes for 16-17 year olds; no votes for EU citizens and they didn't even get the date they wanted.

FTPA still needed Labour votes even if LD and SNP voted for it.

[Banquo's Ghost]

It's the best option that we have because it's the only system we have.

No offence, but if you're sitting this one out you are part of the problem.

Spot on, this election is crucial, one extra voter could really make a difference, vote tactically and vote for the person who is most likely to defeat the Tories but don't not vote

I find myself in an ethical quandary, and would actually appreciate advice from some of the posters here that I consider worthy of respect.

I have always believed that ex-patriates (particularly rich ones) should not vote in UK elections. It seems disingenuous to influence a country which one has decided to leave, especially in terms of tax policy and so forth.

For this election, I find myself a rich ex-pat, but one who was a member of the Labour party for near-on forty years and only ever voted for Labour policies (but never blindly - the 80's were a struggle). I left for NZ because of the Leave vote and my analysis of where the country would fall - as well as my main business being reliant on EU membership. I am fully involved in NZ politics (a shiny new member of the Labour party here) and a sometime advisor to government as I was to the recent Labour government in the UK.

This is possibly the most important vote for the future of the UK in living memory. My place of registration has a Labour MP, not marginal but probably vulnerable. He is a personal friend, a strong Remainer and represents an outlier Remain constituency. Despite being a 'Blairite' he has supported the Corbyn leadership loyally, and is a good man.

On the other hand, I cannot in all conscience vote for the current Labour party as I believe Corbyn as Prime Minister would be an unmitigated disaster, and the stance of the Party on Brexit is reprehensible. (Anti-semitism is a huge concern for me personally). I believe Corbyn and his advisors would embrace Brexit in their own way and not Remain, and thus a vote for Labour is a vote for Brexit. I do not think Corbyn's version of Labour is electable, and even if it was, the demands of government would likely paralyse their efforts to be remotely progressive - especially amongst the economic chaos of whatever a Lexit might look like.

I don't think I should vote, as I am not and am not likely to be, a British citizen that has to face the consequences. Next year, I will be voting Labour in my adopted home of New Zealand, because that affects my future.

Yet by not exercising the franchise that is still mine by law, I may be facilitating terrible problems for the country I still love and the people left behind that don't have my choices.  And if I do vote, do I vote Labour to support my friend despite my severe reservations of what that vote would entail and indicate at the macro-scale. Or do I cast a vote for the LDs as a Revoke party in alignment with my strong view (that may secure the seat for them, but very unlikely, more probably give the seat to a Tory as it was Conservative before 1997). Or waste a vote for the Greens in some sort of deluded personal symbolism that validates my belief one should always exercise the hard-won franchise.

I am genuinely conflicted.

[Sangria]

I find myself in an ethical quandary, and would actually appreciate advice from some of the posters here that I consider worthy of respect.

I have always believed that ex-patriates (particularly rich ones) should not vote in UK elections. It seems disingenuous to influence a country which one has decided to leave, especially in terms of tax policy and so forth.

For this election, I find myself a rich ex-pat, but one who was a member of the Labour party for near-on forty years and only ever voted for Labour policies (but never blindly - the 80's were a struggle). I left for NZ because of the Leave vote and my analysis of where the country would fall - as well as my main business being reliant on EU membership. I am fully involved in NZ politics (a shiny new member of the Labour party here) and a sometime advisor to government as I was to the recent Labour government in the UK.

This is possibly the most important vote for the future of the UK in living memory. My place of registration has a Labour MP, not marginal but probably vulnerable. He is a personal friend, a strong Remainer and represents an outlier Remain constituency. Despite being a 'Blairite' he has supported the Corbyn leadership loyally, and is a good man.

On the other hand, I cannot in all conscience vote for the current Labour party as I believe Corbyn as Prime Minister would be an unmitigated disaster, and the stance of the Party on Brexit is reprehensible. (Anti-semitism is a huge concern for me personally). I believe Corbyn and his advisors would embrace Brexit in their own way and not Remain, and thus a vote for Labour is a vote for Brexit. I do not think Corbyn's version of Labour is electable, and even if it was, the demands of government would likely paralyse their efforts to be remotely progressive - especially amongst the economic chaos of whatever a Lexit might look like.

I don't think I should vote, as I am not and am not likely to be, a British citizen that has to face the consequences. Next year, I will be voting Labour in my adopted home of New Zealand, because that affects my future.

Yet by not exercising the franchise that is still mine by law, I may be facilitating terrible problems for the country I still love and the people left behind that don't have my choices.  And if I do vote, do I vote Labour to support my friend despite my severe reservations of what that vote would entail and indicate at the macro-scale. Or do I cast a vote for the LDs as a Revoke party in alignment with my strong view (that may secure the seat for them, but very unlikely, more probably give the seat to a Tory as it was Conservative before 1997). Or waste a vote for the Greens in some sort of deluded personal symbolism that validates my belief one should always exercise the hard-won franchise.

I am genuinely conflicted.

If your mate is completely onside with Remain and will stand again, vote for him. Corbyn will probably go after this.

[Robinred]

^^^

You are not alone Banquo. I posted a few days ago indicating my own dilemma, that as a lifelong Labour member and voter, I too ended up distrusting and disliking Corbyn and his cabal, and resigned my membership after Corbyn’s second election as Party leader.

I have a Plaid MP, Liz Saville Roberts, and will vote for her. I’m not a believer in Welsh independence for a host of reasons, but an independent Wales, as a member of the EU, and free from the malign influence of English nationalism, and specifically Johnson and his acolytes, does have huge appeal.

[hide5seek]

the Tories will get nowhere near a 50 seat majority, don't believe the polls, they will narrow and we still have some polling companies giving leads as low as 4%.  Labour may lose some seats, but think the Tories will lose seats too, the Tories will be wiped out in Scotland and will lose seats in London too, possibly even Johnson himself who has a majority of 5000, tiny for a party leader, would be good if someone like Frottage went up against him as it could wreck his whole campaign if he has to spend time on the ground fighting his own battle locally.

Corbyn for all his critics, did well in 2017, really surprised me as thought Labour were looking at meltdown levels, below 160 seats was a possibility, but he came back well and when broadcasting rules kick in as they do in election campaigns and an equal footing must be given to the Opposition then those polls will narrow.

You've also got to factor in the BXP, yes they could challenge Labour in their heartlands but will also be a headache for the Tories in their seats. Then you have a resurgent Lib Dems in the South West and in and around London too.

Although the Tories will probably win the highest percentage of votes, that will not necessarily translate into a majority when tactical voting comes into play.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say the Tories will get less seats than they won in 2017.

I said on a political site before the 2017 election that the Tories wouldn't win a majority, I also felt before 2015 that Cameron would win a majority even though the polls were predicting the opposite in both.

I still think it is all up for grabs and the last few years has shown that the Tory vote is flaky.

Don't be disheartened, yet......

Frottage is already implying that he'll not stand candidates in some Tory seats. Corbyn is going to be destroyed.

[Broad Spectrum]

‘We’ didn’t vote for any of those things.

Who did then?

[losCHUNK]

Well the LDs and SNP just gave Boris his Christmas present.  I'd have probably preferred Boris get his deal instead of resetting the clock for Tory leadership.

[classycarra]

Well the LDs and SNP just gave Boris his Christmas present.  I'd have probably preferred Boris get his deal instead of resetting the clock for Tory leadership.

The LDs and SNP abstained. Labour are the party that provided the "gift", by your interpretation.

[vivabobbygraham]

Here's a novel theory:

Frottage is a Remainer. He's scared out of his wits that we may actually Leave and render him totally irrelevant, not to mention lose him his EU salary (though he'll get the pension). He has made a career out of shouting loudly about Leaving, safe in the knowledge that his was a minority view, and so wouldn't happen and thus ensure he has a career and fame for life.

The Leave result was his worse nightmare come true.

If there's an election his party will campaign separately to the Tories in order to split the vote and try and prevent Brexit, so that he can safely continue to demand Brexit but hopefully never achieve it.

That's far too smart for him....and now you've let the cat out of the bag.Well done 

[losCHUNK]

The LDs and SNP abstained. Labour are the party that provided the "gift", by your interpretation.

They can do one n all but without their votes it was a dead cert anyway?

[No666]

snip

If you were a rich ex-pat Tory, active in your new country's political system, I would be spitting angry that you continued to want to influence events here. Personally, I don't think it's "right" for any ex-pat to vote here. I'm not sure if you being on 'my' side should lead to me changing my mind on that, although - I have to add - it's tempting.

[jepovic]

If your mate is completely onside with Remain and will stand again, vote for him. Corbyn will probably go after this.

Not so sure about that. If he keeps status quo I think he'll declare it a victory and stay another five years at least. How poorly would Corbyn have to do to lose the support from his party members - 25% ? 15%?

[redmark]

Not so sure about that. If he keeps status quo I think he'll declare it a victory and stay another five years at least. How poorly would Corbyn have to do to lose the support from his party members - 25% ? 15%?

This is Corbyn's last election. I don't think he actually enjoys it anyway, but 'the project' will want him to make way before the supportive membership becomes too disillusioned and drifts away.

If Labour do well and the numbers are there for a left-of-centre coalition, the other parties will be able to insist on a different PM - or we'll face 'vote by vote' support that will restrict the economic changes the party stands for. If Labour does particularly badly, it will depend significantly on which groups of MPs lose seats, as the PLP will nominate. Trada may be an exception, but there are plenty of long-time Labour members still supportive of Corbyn who are not automatically going to transfer that support to whoever Momentum tells them, and certainly not to some of the least capable nonentities in the shadow cabinet.

[bahrainexpat]

If you were a rich ex-pat Tory, active in your new country's political system, I would be spitting angry that you continued to want to influence events here. Personally, I don't think it's "right" for any ex-pat to vote here. I'm not sure if you being on 'my' side should lead to me changing my mind on that, although - I have to add - it's tempting.

I left the UK 26 years ago, and made the decision then not to vote. Although I am eligible to vote, I don't believe that I am morally entitled to do so.

As much as I despise the Tories I will not vote in this election.

Hmm just checked and entitlement to vote for British expat expires after 15 years, so ignore the bollocks above.

[PaulF]

If you were a rich ex-pat Tory, active in your new country's political system, I would be spitting angry that you continued to want to influence events here. Personally, I don't think it's "right" for any ex-pat to vote here. I'm not sure if you being on 'my' side should lead to me changing my mind on that, although - I have to add - it's tempting.

If you vote for what you believe is best for the country you've left behind, then I see no problem with utilising your vote.
(Random thought, if one was living in the UK, but had a terminal illness that gave them only a few months, should they take their vote?)

On the other of Banquo's questions, who to vote for? This is a problem for a lot of people who aren't supportive of the current Tory part,particularly Remainers.  There is simply nobody to vote for.  Even tactical voting is fraught with the deciding who best to support to minimise the number of seats the Torys get.  I've yet to see who came second in my Tory constituency and already I'm not sure which way to vote.  I don't mind voting Lib-Dem , but if Labour ran the seat close last time, I'd have to consider voting Labour. But I don't want to support Corbyn, as he simply does not have what it takes to effectively lead the opposition.  It feels like not voting might be my best option.  (And before anyone points out people died for my right to vote, I consider they also died for my right to choose not to vote). 

[Kuytinho]

If you were a rich ex-pat Tory, active in your new country's political system, I would be spitting angry that you continued to want to influence events here. Personally, I don't think it's "right" for any ex-pat to vote here. I'm not sure if you being on 'my' side should lead to me changing my mind on that, although - I have to add - it's tempting.

I think it's absolutely ''right'', when the events I want to influence could directly impact my ability to live and work in my current country of residence.

[KillieRed]

I am genuinely conflicted.

My first thought was that you shouldnt vote, but having heard your explanation. i think you should vote for your friend.

In a perfect world we should all vote for the candidate over party.

I assume this will be your last eligible vote anyway?

[mkingdon]

I think both Labour and Tory parties will win fewer seats than is traditionally the case.

I can see the SNP and the Lib Dems getting somewhere around 100 seats between them. Maybe more if the Remain vote goes Lib Dem in a big way in Tory/Lib marginals.

Corbyn peaked in 2017 and he's had a bad Brexit so he isn't winning anywhere close to a majority. However, as a Remainer, the only hope is that he wins around 230-250 seats which would allow him to form some sort of coalition/agreement with the SNP and Libs which should lead to a second vote of some kind.

I can't see Corbyn or Johnson winning 320+ seats on their own.

[Rush 82]

If you are a Labour voter who does not want to Leave, who the fuck do you vote for?

[mkingdon]

If you are a Labour voter who does not want to Leave, who the fuck do you vote for?

Whichever party can prevent a Tory taking the seat.

[andyrol]

Its a massive risk to have an election in winter. im a presiding officer at a polling station and I know we are worried about the weather, if it snows or is icy the numbers coming to vote will be a tiny percentage of the population, never mind the problems with staff getting to the stations to open on time or get away to hand the ballot boxes in at the count. who would come out in the dark (4:30 PM onwards) in feezing conditions to vote for any of these idiots.

[PaulF]

If you are a Labour voter who does not want to Leave, who the fuck do you vote for?

That in a nutshell is the problem.  As a labour voter could you vote lib dem?

[PaulF]

Its a massive risk to have an election in winter. im a presiding officer at a polling station and I know we are worried about the weather, if it snows or is icy the numbers coming to vote will be a tiny percentage of the population, never mind the problems with staff getting to the stations to open on time or get away to hand the ballot boxes in at the count. who would come out in the dark (4:30 PM onwards) in feezing conditions to vote for any of these idiots.

We don't normally get the worst weather until after Christmas though?

[KillieRed]

Its a massive risk to have an election in winter. im a presiding officer at a polling station and I know we are worried about the weather, if it snows or is icy the numbers coming to vote will be a tiny percentage of the population, never mind the problems with staff getting to the stations to open on time or get away to hand the ballot boxes in at the count. who would come out in the dark (4:30 PM onwards) in feezing conditions to vote for any of these idiots.

Hopefully there will be an icy snap and the oldies won`t want to leave the house that day.

[Red Viper]

If you are a Labour voter who does not want to Leave, who the fuck do you vote for?

Errrm, Labour.

[Elmo!]

Hopefully there will be an icy snap and the oldies won`t want to leave the house that day.

Actually think it will be the opposite. The elderly would go out and vote even if costs them a broken hip. Students and young people? Will stay inside if there is the slightest frost.

[eddymunster]

Errrm, Labour.

Last time we did that it was counted as a vote for Brexit. I will be voting Labour as it's fairly close between them and the Tories where I live, but I'm not happy about it.

Best case, Labour get a majority (I know they won't) and then what? We get a new referendum where the new prime minister campaigns for........... probably the same thing as the current one.

[Cpt_Reina]

If you are a Labour voter who does not want to Leave, who the fuck do you vote for?

Labour 

[reddebs]

Technically it won't be a Winter Election as Winter doesn't start until 21st December.

Maybe it's time online voting was made available so "turnout" becomes less of an issue.



Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk

[Trim0582]

Actually think it will be the opposite. The elderly would go out and vote even if costs them a broken hip. Students and young people? Will stay inside if there is the slightest frost.

Is there a snowflake based pun in there somewhere?

I can understand why so many younger people would feel utterly marginalised by the choices in front of them. I feel the same, sadly and as is oft the way in life, they may not be choices we like, but they are the only choices we have.

I will likely vote Lib Dem (and pray they scrap IR35 as a little bonus before I go bankrupt in the spring, fun times). Perhaps a wasted vote, but I cannot endorse Labour or Tory.

[Linudden]

Technically it won't be a Winter Election as Winter doesn't start until 21st December.

Sweden is on the line and reports that winter in Britain from a meteorological standpoint doesn't really exist save one or two cold snaps in January or February, especially when considering the latitude. That's just perpetual autumn for half the year  December averages 7-10°C depending on the whereabouts so the only problem I can see is that there's a sizeable risk for late-season storms coming from the Atlantic, similar to the 2015 Cumbrian floods. Maybe in Braemar in the Highlands of Scotland there could be heavy winter weather on Election Day but otherwise I just don't see it happening. Winters may be disappointing here in many years (average 3/-2 in December, 1/-5 in January, 2/-5 in February), but nothing like how mediocre the British ones are. Right now here is "British Winter Season" outside and it's depressing as hell. Single-digits absolutely suck, but at least it doesn't cause much harm in terms of the blizzards and stuff we often get in December.