Topic: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)

[Paul_h]

to be fair to Nunez, the current 1st choice front 3 don't have much chemistry, synergy between them. They are almost playing as individuals, and don't trust each other.
Salah is going for the golden boot, and would rather shoot from anywhere in case it deflects and goes in. Its not a bad goal to have, but the team should come first.
Diaz is showboating to catch the eye of the 2 big Spanish teams., its almost like he would rather go for the most difficult route to the goal for himself, fail, than set up a teammate.

Having said that, Nunez composure can be improved for sure, he's snatching at chances, and often doesn't relize he has more time than he thinks. Its almost like his brain is thinking too fast for his body to keep up. Reckon he needs cut down on that  mate he drinks all day..full of caffeine that..

[JackWard33]

‘Variance’ is just a nice way of distilling all the other things people are talking about (shot selection, composure, decision making) and removing all player agency in these situations.

It isn’t
Variance means variation from a mean (that will be reverted to) 
What we know is that in top level football finishing reverts to the mean with a known margin of variance … again this is proven out which is why xg works

Shot selection, for example, is almost entirely player agency and so bad shot selection over time wouldn’t be variation from a mean it would be a worse player

[bornandbRED]

It's a matter of very little relevance because even if it did cost us the title (it hasn't) its impossible to control how many "big chances" (whatever the arbitrary measure of that is)  you convert... so there's nothing you could do or put in place to increase your chances of higher big chance conversion next season

Perhaps the most hilarious post in this thread.

[JackWard33]

Perhaps the most hilarious post in this thread.

Feel free to explain how you’d do it …. But not in here to big football clubs
If you can do it you’ll make millions

[Knight]

Feel free to explain how you’d do it …. But not in here to big football clubs
If you can do it you’ll make millions

Cloning prime Messi 4 times and playing him as the left forward, right forward, false 9 and most attacking 8 would do it. If anyone can do it, Mikey can do it.

[skipper757]

Sorry we were 1-0 down, then we got it to 2-1 then missed a bucket full of chances. I never said Nunez missed the big chances in the FA Cup, I said the team did. I said Nunez over the season has missed the most chances by a significant margin hence why he's being discussed.

The chance against Atalanta at 0-0 where he should have rounded the keeper is a good example for Nunez.

Interesting you say the Trent 5 v 2, it was a poor pass from Salah which made his chance harder than it should have been. You also missed Nunez's miss against Utd but again that wasn't the easiest chance due to poor passes in the counter.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1779947344240521502

Lots of examples, as a team we need to be far better.

Thanks for the examples!  Appreciate it.  I think we're mostly on the same page.  I get frustrated by some of these misses, and it goes beyond stats really, so I do get your concern on the big chance misses.

The Atalanta one is a good one as that could've changed the tone entirely.

There's always just something off with everyone, with Darwin no exception.  Perhaps we were just blessed for a while with a truly dominant front 3 and also with great strikers in our history.

[MonsLibpool]

‘Variance’ is just a nice way of distilling all the other things people are talking about (shot selection, composure, decision making) and removing all player agency in these situations. There’s a good example of it just this season where Michael Owen (he was good at scoring goals like) was critical of Nunez after the Brentford game because even though Nunez scored he felt the shot selection (lobbing the keeper) was an insane choice of shot. Fast forward a few weeks and Nunez tries the same thing against Atalanta and fluffs his lines. Variance ennit, he scored one and missed one. But it ignores the question of whether it was even the right shot selection to begin with, or could he have rounded the keeper etc? All those other factors that come into play but we’re sat here pretending don’t.

Owen quote:
That finish from Darwin Nunez yesterday was insane. I can’t stop watching it. And I can’t begin to explain how difficult a skill that is. Moving at pace, the ball running away from you, being inside the box with no room for error. Incredible. BUT, it is also further proof that if he is to get closer to becoming the great player many people think he can be, he has to adapt his way of thinking. I mean, to even consider that finish is madness. It’s a 1 in 10, 2 in 10 finish at best. Learning to slot, dink or go round the GK is a far more productive way to score and will increase his chances to 4 or 5 in 10, thus massively increasing his end return. I’m really not trying to rain on his parade as that goal was pure class. But I’d rather see it when Liverpool are 3-0 up, not at 0-0😂

Some of his controllables are:
1. His inconsistent first touch. If you watch some of his misses, it's either stuck between his feet or a heavy touch and that makes the chances more difficult.  So, he's not even settling himself up well.
2. Not hitting the target enough. The probability of him missing the target completely is too high. If it's on target, there's always a chance
3. His mental attributes- composure,  decision making as you've touched on.

Whilst he's getting into good position, there are some fundamental issues that he can control and that'll make  him better in front of goal. It's not just a statistical issue.

Can his first touch improve for example? Who knows.

[PaleBlueDot]

Some of his controllables are:
1. His inconsistent first touch. If you watch some of his misses, it's either stuck between his feet or a heavy touch and that makes the chances more difficult.  So, he's not even settling himself up well.
2. Not hitting the target enough. The probability of him missing the target completely is too high. If it's on target, there's always a chance
3. His mental attributes- composure,  decision making as you've touched on.

Whilst he's getting into good position, there are some fundamental issues that he can control and that'll make  him better in front of goal. It's not just a statistical issue.

Can his first touch improve for example? Who knows.

4. Type of finish. Rarely see him go for a typical strikers 'open body up and pass it round keeper' style finish. I think maybe once vs Bournemouth away? If he was doing that in the right moments consistently but still missing I'd be more optimistic than all these chips, first time tame efforts or absolutely leathering it.

[Egyptian36]

I think we forget sometimes how difficult it is to be a LFC striker. Only a special player can make it and they are very few, the rest which is like 99% will flop, I know many think player A for example is a good finisher and with the chances we create he will score a lot of goals but it doesn't work this way unless he is a special player he will look out of depth. If Nunez can be more clinical which can come with experience or a more calm style of football then we will have a very special player.

[MonsLibpool]

4. Type of finish. Rarely see him go for a typical strikers 'open body up and pass it round keeper' style finish. I think maybe once vs Bournemouth away? If he was doing that in the right moments consistently but still missing I'd be more optimistic than all these chips, first time tame efforts or absolutely leathering it.

More often than not, you need a good first touch to open up your body unless you're hitting it first time.

[Knight]

Plenty of you guys are insane and the disrespect Nunez is getting is wild. There’s going to be plenty of receipts at least for when you’re all proved wrong.

[PaleBlueDot]

Plenty of you guys are insane and the disrespect Nunez is getting is wild. There’s going to be plenty of receipts at least for when you’re all proved wrong.

I think most people think he has something about him, and that he has the potential to come good....but are able to admit he's a bit of a donkey at the moment. Some can't in here clearly. You don't get a free pass coz chaos and pashun.

[Clint Eastwood]

I think most people think he has something about him, and that he has the potential to come good....but are able to admit he's a bit of a donkey at the moment. Some can't in here clearly. You don't get a free pass coz chaos and pashun.

Yep. I don't think it should be sacrilege to talk about his shortcomings. There's a lot to love about him, but our inability to finish our chances will be the reason we've dropped out of the title race, and our number 9 has the worst big chance conversion rate across Europe's top 5 leagues. Ultimately, for the amount of chances he gets, he should have more than 11 league goals for us this season. I appreciate that getting so many chances is a skill in itself, but it comes to a point where you have to ask whether it is that helpful when only a small proportion of them are put away. His skillset is unique and on good days invaluable, but the good days aren't frequent enough.

It looked like he had turned a corner a couple of months ago, but it feels like that was more of a purple patch than him settling. What we're seeing is probably what we will get and he turns 25 in June, so he's hardly a kid still learning the ropes. A new manager will come in, but I wonder how much that will improve things because we do already play to his strengths. The reason he's not scoring big chances is because of his decision making. Like Diaz and (maybe) Gakpo, he's a level below what we've had before. He'll still be a big player for us, but I don't think we can count on him like we do/have done with players like Salah, Mane, Bobby over the years, and I definitely wouldn't be 'building a team around him'.

[collytum]

I think it's fair to judge him on his goals now that he is approaching the end of his second season with us. Roughly a goal every 3 games is hardly top level. One great season in his last five would suggest this is his level. Even the biggest optimist would admit he has been a disappointment.

[Knight]

I think most people think he has something about him, and that he has the potential to come good....but are able to admit he's a bit of a donkey at the moment. Some can't in here clearly. You don't get a free pass coz chaos and pashun.

There you go proving my point. calling him a donkey. Disrespectful but also just straight up wrong.

[Mister Flip Flop]

I think it's fair to judge him on his goals now that he is approaching the end of his second season with us. Roughly a goal every 3 games is hardly top level. One great season in his last five would suggest this is his level. Even the biggest optimist would admit he has been a disappointment.

Yeah i think that's a fair assessment to be honest. I really expected more from him this season.

[decosabute]

Yep. I don't think it should be sacrilege to talk about his shortcomings. There's a lot to love about him, but our inability to finish our chances will be the reason we've dropped out of the title race, and our number 9 has the worst big chance conversion rate across Europe's top 5 leagues. Ultimately, for the amount of chances he gets, he should have more than 11 league goals for us this season. I appreciate that getting so many chances is a skill in itself, but it comes to a point where you have to ask whether it is that helpful when only a small proportion of them are put away. His skillset is unique and on good days invaluable, but the good days aren't frequent enough.

It looked like he had turned a corner a couple of months ago, but it feels like that was more of a purple patch than him settling. What we're seeing is probably what we will get and he turns 25 in June, so he's hardly a kid still learning the ropes. A new manager will come in, but I wonder how much that will improve things because we do already play to his strengths. The reason he's not scoring big chances is because of his decision making. Like Diaz and (maybe) Gakpo, he's a level below what we've had before. He'll still be a big player for us, but I don't think we can count on him like we do/have done with players like Salah, Mane, Bobby over the years, and I definitely wouldn't be 'building a team around him'.

I think your post is absolutely spot on, except for the bit about Diaz.

Think it's extremely unfair that Diaz still gets people wondering if he's good enough - his goal scoring record is pretty close to Darwin's this season, despite the fact that he's also an absolute workhorse along the flank. He's also the only one I wouldn't blame for the shitshows the past 10 days - people seem to gloss over the fact that he was the only one (not counting penalties) to actually score in the last three games and it wasn't an easy chance either. Diaz is more than good enough.

As I say though, I couldn't agree with you more about Darwin, both the good points and the frustrations. He can contribute here for years with the attributes he has, but I think it would be mad to build around him and depend on him. If you build your team around such an inconsistent attacker, then you'll be an inconsistent team.

[Draex]

I think your post is absolutely spot on, except for the bit about Diaz.

Think it's extremely unfair that Diaz still gets people wondering if he's good enough - his goal scoring record is pretty close to Darwin's this season, despite the fact that he's also an absolute workhorse along the flank. He's also the only one I wouldn't blame for the shitshows the past 10 days - people seem to gloss over the fact that he was the only one (not counting penalties) to actually score in the last three games and it wasn't an easy chance either. Diaz is more than good enough.

As I say though, I couldn't agree with you more about Darwin, both the good points and the frustrations. He can contribute here for years with the attributes he has, but I think it would be mad to build around him and depend on him. If you build your team around such an inconsistent attacker, then you'll be an inconsistent team.

Diaz has missed some absolute sitters as well though, that's the point, collectively our forwards need to improve, especially in game defining/changing moments.

[Clint Eastwood]

I think your post is absolutely spot on, except for the bit about Diaz.

Think it's extremely unfair that Diaz still gets people wondering if he's good enough - his goal scoring record is pretty close to Darwin's this season, despite the fact that he's also an absolute workhorse along the flank. He's also the only one I wouldn't blame for the shitshows the past 10 days - people seem to gloss over the fact that he was the only one (not counting penalties) to actually score in the last three games and it wasn't an easy chance either. Diaz is more than good enough.

As I say though, I couldn't agree with you more about Darwin, both the good points and the frustrations. He can contribute here for years with the attributes he has, but I think it would be mad to build around him and depend on him. If you build your team around such an inconsistent attacker, then you'll be an inconsistent team.

Fair enough. I'm probably more critical about Diaz than others because I can't help but feel that he's a lot of noise but not a huge amount of end product. He's technically excellent and works his arse off but his decision making, finishing, passing leaves a bit to be desired. He also comes across fairly individualistic and has struggled to form any kind of understanding with Robertson, Nunez and Salah. In my mind I'm always comparing him to Mane, which is probably unfair.

[Draex]

Fair enough. I'm probably more critical about Diaz than others because I can't help but feel that he's a lot of noise but not a huge amount of end product. He's technically excellent and works his arse off but his decision making, finishing, passing leaves a bit to be desired. He also comes across fairly individualistic and has struggled to form any kind of understanding with Robertson, Nunez and Salah. In my mind I'm always comparing him to Mane, which is probably unfair.

I don't get why it's "unfair" to compare our current forwards to Mane, Firmino and Salah, they enabled us to win every single top level trophy against financially doped clubs, why shouldn't we aspire back to that level.

[decosabute]

I don't get why it's "unfair" to compare our current forwards to Mane, Firmino and Salah, they enabled us to win every single top level trophy against financially doped clubs, why shouldn't we aspire back to that level.

It's fair to say that Diaz isn't quite peak Mane. And it's also OK to want to aspire to that level of player. But we also need to be realistic about how good Mane was - I'd honestly have him as one of the most transformative players in club history - and how difficult and rare it is to find a player that outstanding.

But I really do think Diaz is - as Rob Gutmann recently put it - doing a manful job of filling the Mane void.

Anyway, it's getting off topic, but I'm just far more concerned about Darwin's inconsistency as our focal point and Salah's future levels than I am about Diaz.

[PaleBlueDot]

There you go proving my point. calling him a donkey. Disrespectful but also just straight up wrong.

I think you're taking it too personally. Darwin's my favourite character in the team but I'll call him crap when he's been crap. My point still stands.

[DelTrotter]

I think you're taking it too personally. Darwin's my favourite character in the team but I'll call him crap when he's been crap. My point still stands.

It's amazing we aren't in a relegation scrap with how many "donkeys" you say we have in the team.

[Redley]

The two most active player threads are Darwin and Mo Absolute madness over the last week. Properly shit week for the team and its created delirium on here.

[Knight]

I think you're taking it too personally. Darwin's my favourite character in the team but I'll call him crap when he's been crap. My point still stands.

I'm not taking it personally at all, it's nothing to do with me. You're just miles off base. This guy is the forward we're going to build the team round and you're on here calling him a donkey. The distance between you and reality is enormous.

[Ma Vie en Rouge]

I'm not taking it personally at all, it's nothing to do with me. You're just miles off base. This guy is the forward we're going to build the team round and you're on here calling him a donkey. The distance between you and reality is enormous.

But he's not an elite-level forward, nor shows much sign of approaching being one at this stage. He's exciting, talented, powerful, certainly. But he's no-one's idea of an elite forward at this stage of his career, and he's been with us almost 2 full seasons. If we want to challenge for titles, I don't think we'll be building a team around him, nor is there any evidence that this is what our future (unknown) manager will want to do.

[Knight]

But he's not an elite-level forward, nor shows much sign of approaching being one at this stage. He's exciting, talented, powerful, certainly. But he's no-one's idea of an elite forward at this stage of his career, and he's been with us almost 2 full seasons. If we want to challenge for titles, I don't think we'll be building a team around him, nor is there any evidence that this is what our future (unknown) manager will want to do.

There's quite a few in here calling him elite actually. He's elite at taking high value shots. And according to the nerds, nothing else matters.

[Mr Dilkington]

But he's not an elite-level forward, nor shows much sign of approaching being one at this stage. He's exciting, talented, powerful, certainly. But he's no-one's idea of an elite forward at this stage of his career, and he's been with us almost 2 full seasons. If we want to challenge for titles, I don't think we'll be building a team around him, nor is there any evidence that this is what our future (unknown) manager will want to do.

Christ it's like banging your head against the wall with the Nunez thing.

People who think he isn't elite or good enough to be here, who are you replacing him with? Someone who presumably has better output in terms of goals and assists and is attainable.

I wait with baited breath because so far no one has come up with a name.

Isak was shouted yesterday but as is clear by their numbers, he would likely be a downgrade.

So I will continue to wait for all these players we can sign to replace Nunez.

[Mister Flip Flop]

I'm not taking it personally at all, it's nothing to do with me. You're just miles off base. This guy is the forward we're going to build the team round and you're on here calling him a donkey. The distance between you and reality is enormous.

A agree with you calling players names like donkey is silly but also you have no way of knowing he's the forward we are building the team around for the future. For all you know the new manager may come in not fancy him at all and want him gone to finance bringing in someone else.

[CowboyKangaroo]

But he's not an elite-level forward, nor shows much sign of approaching being one at this stage. He's exciting, talented, powerful, certainly. But he's no-one's idea of an elite forward at this stage of his career, and he's been with us almost 2 full seasons. If we want to challenge for titles, I don't think we'll be building a team around him, nor is there any evidence that this is what our future (unknown) manager will want to do.

Not sure how a forward who is in the top 10 in Europe in terms of production per 90 minutes isn't elite, and particularly one who looks even better when you consider his underlying numbers (which gives confidence that not only will he sustain this level of performance, but likely exceed it in the future).

[Redley]

A agree with you calling players names like donkey is silly but also you have no way of knowing he's the forward we are building the team around for the future. For all you know the new manager may come in not fancy him at all and want him gone to finance bringing in someone else.

Course its not a guarantee but...it seems very likely.

[jepovic]

But he's not an elite-level forward, nor shows much sign of approaching being one at this stage. He's exciting, talented, powerful, certainly. But he's no-one's idea of an elite forward at this stage of his career, and he's been with us almost 2 full seasons. If we want to challenge for titles, I don't think we'll be building a team around him, nor is there any evidence that this is what our future (unknown) manager will want to do.

But who would be better, that we can realistically get? More productive strikers are like Haaland, Kane, Mbappe. We're not getting any of those.
Our competitors have strikers that are on par or worse, and IMO Nunez is the only one that has the raw talent to reach the next level.
Hojlund and Jackson are much worse.
I think it's very unlikely that we will sell Nunez now. It's much more likely that we get a new winger.

[RyanBabel19]

Still believe he needs to finish more consistenly… but he is absolutely an elite level forward

He’s involved in dangerous attacks far too much not to be classed as that

[Knight]

Still believe he needs to finish more consistenly… but he is absolutely an elite level forward

He’s involved in dangerous attacks far too much not to be classed as that

As you know I disagree with you re finishing but this is a reasonable point of view. Unlike the insanity of the 'donkey' or 'needs upgrading' posts.

[mullyred94]

So are we selling him or not?

[RyanBabel19]

As you know I disagree with you re finishing but this is a reasonable point of view. Unlike the insanity of the 'donkey' or 'needs upgrading' posts.

I’m honestly not sure how anyone watches some of the misses this season and last and doesn’t think he needs to be putting more of them in the net.

On the elite thing again I understand peoples frustrations, even ignoring the whole clinical, great finishing stuff, we’ve been spoilt in terms of strikers/forwards so I can understand some of the criticism for him, some of it a lot less so as it’s over the top IMO. We’ve been blessed with some of the best strikers/forwards to have graced the country both in terms of output and aesthetically, to a football fan this sets a benchmark and it can be hard for people to feel signings can live upto that mark.

It’s criticised but the reason I feel the middleground is the most reasonable is because both sides have points IMO. Fans watching every game and having been doing so for years are always going to think chances from a few yards out shouldn’t be missed all the time, one on ones shouldn’t be missed all the time etc likewise statistics matter to an extent and those who pour through the stats will look beyond just what is seen in games and look beyond certain things and therefore will likely disagree with a lot of what is said by fans who don’t look at the game through a lens of numbers. Look at any of a specific list of strikers who have been talked about over the last 5 or 10 years and you’ll see the same comments on them, Lukaku, Werner & Morata for example, you wont have to look far to see the criticism of their finishing. There’s so much to ask about in terms of players ups and downs and a lot of it is overlooked when the stats stuff is discussed but no one really expands on factors like the difference in the leagues, time on the ball, pace of the league etc etc i’m happy to sit and talk about stats until it borders on the air of if you disagree you’re an idiot.

Nunez for example profiles amazingly in stats but I dont remember a huge clamour for him OR massive backing off his stats before he came in, now maybe that’s me misremembering or having simply not seen many posts but where was the praise of his level before he donned a Liverpool shirt if it was all so blatantly obvious, especially from a stats point of view, the stats have surely been available for years now? That’s not to say anyone is wrong but it surely should have been more highlighted than it seemed to be

/

I’ve said before and i’ll say again I think Nunez is sublime. I was unsure on the signing simply because I hadn’t seen him and I tend to sway more towards the side of watching and judging based upon both that and people who have watched a player regularly. Maybe it’s an overly simplistic way to view things but getting into 5 great goalscoring positions to get shots off and scoring none is going to grate. Early doors people will buy into ‘at least he’s getting into the positions’ because players need time etc and confidence grows with time, but after a considerable amount of time you want to see that composure develop where getting into those positions results in goals more often, I mean what use is having great positioning if you can’t make something of the chance.

[decosabute]

Christ it's like banging your head against the wall with the Nunez thing.

People who think he isn't elite or good enough to be here, who are you replacing him with? Someone who presumably has better output in terms of goals and assists and is attainable.

I wait with baited breath because so far no one has come up with a name.

Isak was shouted yesterday but as is clear by their numbers, he would likely be a downgrade.

So I will continue to wait for all these players we can sign to replace Nunez.

Mate, it's people on a forum expressing an opinion about what they see with a player. Acting like the opinion has no validity unless we turn into Michael Edwards and have scouted an alternative, is nonsense. It's not our job to answer those questions.

I think most would rather we kept Darwin and that he was a good option for us for years. But expressing an opinion that he probably isn't ever going to be consistent or composed enough to be the guy we build around isn't invalid. And wondering if there maybe isn't a player out there who could develop into that player for us, now or in the future - without knowing exactly who that is - is also OK.

[Ma Vie en Rouge]

According to understat, he's 12.66 goals down on his xg during his time at Liverpool. And that, rightly or wrongly, is what most people are going to be judging him on. He misses a lot of chances that, on average, would be goals, over his time with us. If he reverts closer to the average over the rest of his time here, we'll be golden. But it's hardly surprising that some people are worrying when he's almost 13 goals down on xg whilst at LFC. That chimes with what we see on the pitch - a markedly unreliable striker who generates a very high number of chances for himself.

[Mr Dilkington]

It's like the last 5 pages haven't happened. Utterly pointless.

[Redley]

According to understat, he's 12.66 goals down on his xg during his time at Liverpool. And that, rightly or wrongly, is what most people are going to be judging him on. He misses a lot of chances that, on average, would be goals, over his time with us. If he reverts closer to the average over the rest of his time here, we'll be golden. But it's hardly surprising that some people are worrying when he's almost 13 goals down on xg whilst at LFC. That chimes with what we see on the pitch - a markedly unreliable striker who generates a very high number of chances for himself.

Most people are going to be judging him on how he's performing compared to his XG?