Topic: The UK Economy - Is it the 1970's again?

[killer-heels]

They're not going to start blaming their mates, are they?

Gang of c*nts that institute. I of course hated Brexit but if there was one small satisfaction it was many people telling institutes like that and other lobby groups to fuck off.

[PaulF]

I think the main issue is the economic badging of a "wage price spiral". This is a misleading term as it suggests that wage rises came first and caused all the price rises which, as we all know, is a load of shit.

A better term would be a "price wage spiral" as what has happened is people are demanding increased wages to maintain their purchasing power in the face of factors they had no control over.

The demonisation of this approach from workers and suggesting that we should all just suck it up and accept that we can't afford what we used to is a complete joke.

So if fuel prices and wheat and sunflower rise by large amounts. How do you propose we all afford the same amount?

[TepidT2O]

Fuck me.  My car insurance quote is 42% up on a last year.  And it’s the cheapest I can get by far too.


Bloody ridiculous

[PaulF]

Yeah, we are facing same 😕

[rob1966]

Fuck me.  My car insurance quote is 42% up on a last year.  And it’s the cheapest I can get by far too.


Bloody ridiculous

Have you tried Go Compare - mine has gone from £286 to £460, RAC showing as £253 on Go Compare, very similar cover to what I have now

[TepidT2O]

Have you tried Go Compare - mine has gone from £286 to £460, RAC showing as £253 on Go Compare, very similar cover to what I have now

Of course.! 


My existing insurer is quoting me the lowest price.  Although money saving expert says that the cheapest prices come three weeks before renewal, so maybe there’s a bit more to come?

[west_london_red]

Fuck me.  My car insurance quote is 42% up on a last year.  And it’s the cheapest I can get by far too.


Bloody ridiculous

My house insurance was similar to that, went from £280 to £800 to stay with the same company, shopped around and got it ‘down’ to about £480, absolute piss take but it’s getting to the stage now where getting ripped off is just normal now I worry.

[TepidT2O]

My house insurance was similar to that, went from £280 to £800 to stay with the same company, shopped around and got it ‘down’ to about £480, absolute piss take but it’s getting to the stage now where getting ripped off is just normal now I worry.

Shit More cost.  Insane numbers.

[PaulF]

Didn't teachers get a massive pay rise this year? 😁

[TepidT2O]

Didn't teachers get a massive pay rise this year? 😁

Got 0% in 2020 though (again)!

[Red-Soldier]

Didn't teachers get a massive pay rise this year? 😁

 

[PaulF]

Got 0% in 2020 though (again)!

Sorry, I haven't got a sarcasm emoji.

[thejbs]

Fair play to Carrefour calling out the big boys. They’ve halted all sales of goods owned by PepsiCo due to price increases and shrinkflation. I already saw an article last year where they put up warning signs where shrinkflation had occurred. I wish our supermarkets did this.

Carrefour to halt Pepsi sales over price rises https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67884603

[Nobby Reserve]

Fair play to Carrefour calling out the big boys. They’ve halted all sales of goods owned by PepsiCo due to price increases and shrinkflation. I already saw an article last year where they put up warning signs where shrinkflation had occurred. I wish our supermarkets did this.

Carrefour to halt Pepsi sales over price rises https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67884603

Mark-ups on branded fizzy drinks are enormous.

The product itself costs pennies. Add on the packaging, transportation, wholesaler/retailer mark-ups and a can should be around 15-20p

Yet they retail for 2x/3x that price - and it's all gross profit for Coca-Cola/Pepsi

However, they use the bulk of their gross profit to pay for advertising (as you might expect) - but also subsidising prices in the developing world. Not for philanthropic reasons, but to make Coke/Pepsi the drink of choice in developing countries so that, as incomes begin to rise as they develop, they will ramp up the prices.

[thejbs]

They also own brands like lays/walkers and Doritos. Hopefully this properly fucks them.

On your point about soft drinks, coke can afford to sell a 24pk on offer for £7 in Tesco so that gives you an idea of its proper value.

[west_london_red]

Shit More cost.  Insane numbers.

Wife’s car insurance has gone from £480 to £960 and that’s after shopping around, the renewal is the cheapest option… seriously WTF!?!?

[PaulF]

Wife’s car insurance has gone from £480 to £960 and that’s after shopping around, the renewal is the cheapest option… seriously WTF!?!?

It's insane.  Be interesting to see if Martin Lewis has this in his sights.

[Andy @ Allerton!]

Having to go into the office - when I first went in on the train a few years back it was £9.60 anytime return.

Bought a ticket today for the same journey £16.90

[Nobby Reserve]

Having to go into the office - when I first went in on the train a few years back it was £9.60 anytime return.

Bought a ticket today for the same journey £16.90

Work out the £ per mile

Then do a calculation with a plane journey.

It's criminal.

[thejbs]

Austrian heiress Marlene Engelhorn announces plan for €25m giveaway https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67935463

This is how you do it.

[Nobby Reserve]

Austrian heiress Marlene Engelhorn announces plan for €25m giveaway https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67935463

This is how you do it.

She's brilliant. Campaigns for the rich - including her - to pay more tax. Austria scrapped inheritance tax about 20 years ago and she has vehemently opposed that.

[Jshooters]

So apparently an influential paper behind why austerity was adopted used incorrect data to reach their conclusions....

https://x.com/CentralBylines/status/1749747229978399154?s=20

[Jiminy Cricket]

So apparently an influential paper behind why austerity was adopted used incorrect data to reach their conclusions....

https://x.com/CentralBylines/status/1749747229978399154?s=20

It is the sort of error anyone with a modicum of knowledge about spreadsheets (let alone economics) could have discovered. And yet, it took three years for anyone to check it. That's just crap.

[Jshooters]

Do Reinhart and Rogoff admit they got it wrong? They admit they accidentally excluded five rows from an average in their Microsoft Excel spreadsheet,

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-04-18/faq-reinhart-rogoff-and-the-excel-error-that-changed-history

The authors point out that there are three problems with our 1945-2009 averages and the paper itself: (i) a coding error that causes the first five countries in the alphabet to be omitted in forming averages for the 1946-2009 period in one figure, (ii) “selective exclusion” of 1946-1950 for New Zealand, and (iii) “unconventional weighting of summary statistics”

https://www.businessinsider.com/reinhart-and-rogoff-admit-excel-blunder-2013-4?r=US&IR=T#:~:text=The%20authors%20point%20out%20that,Zealand%2C%20and%20(iii)%20%E2%80%9C

[Jiminy Cricket]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-04-18/faq-reinhart-rogoff-and-the-excel-error-that-changed-history

https://www.businessinsider.com/reinhart-and-rogoff-admit-excel-blunder-2013-4?r=US&IR=T#:~:text=The%20authors%20point%20out%20that,Zealand%2C%20and%20(iii)%20%E2%80%9C

Non-paywalled version:

https://archive.is/HUfqv

[Jshooters]

Non-paywalled version:

https://archive.is/HUfqv

Cheers Jiminy. It looked like an interesting article but I wasn’t arsed to get the non paywalled version hence me seeking out a different one.

Can you just clarify what you were referring to when you said ‘That’s just crap’

[PaulF]

Pretty sure he means the authors fell way below expected standards. (by that's just crap).  Ie, he wasnt arguing with you.

[Jiminy Cricket]

Cheers Jiminy. It looked like an interesting article but I wasn’t arsed to get the non paywalled version hence me seeking out a different one.

Can you just clarify what you were referring to when you said ‘That’s just crap’

So apparently an influential paper behind why austerity was adopted used incorrect data to reach their conclusions....

https://x.com/CentralBylines/status/1749747229978399154?s=20

It is the sort of error anyone with a modicum of knowledge about spreadsheets (let alone economics) could have discovered. And yet, it took three years for anyone to check it. That's just crap.

I was referring to the fact that it took three years for anyone to check out the underlying statistics and spreadsheet from the economics article which was embraced by the Right and has done so much damage. Even now, a full ten years since the mistakes in the original paper were outed, we are living with the consequences of the mistakes from those two economists.

The original paper was used by George Osbourne to justify his (and the Tories') programme of austerity. And they still have not learned from the debunking of the paper or experience over the past 14 years.

[Jiminy Cricket]

Pretty sure he means the authors fell way below expected standards. (by that's just crap).  Ie, he wasnt arguing with you.

Yeah, was not argument with JShooters. Sorry if I was not clear.

But, more specifically, my 'crap' comments referred to that it took three years before the glaring mistake was spotted by anyone. That is a bit crap. And quite astonishing, really. The mistakes in the original paper should be career-ending for the two economists. It is the sort of thing which would, surely, fail a PhD, for example.

[Jshooters]

Yeah, was not argument with JShooters. Sorry if I was not clear.

But, more specifically, my 'crap' comments referred to that it took three years before the glaring mistake was spotted by anyone. That is a bit crap. And quite astonishing, really. The mistakes in the original paper should be career-ending for the two economists. It is the sort of thing which would, surely, fail a PhD, for example.

 

[PaulF]

Yeah, was not argument with JShooters. Sorry if I was not clear.

But, more specifically, my 'crap' comments referred to that it took three years before the glaring mistake was spotted by anyone. That is a bit crap. And quite astonishing, really. The mistakes in the original paper should be career-ending for the two economists. It is the sort of thing which would, surely, fail a PhD, for example.

The peer review is sadly lacking too!

[west_london_red]

The peer review is sadly lacking too!

The paper is ultimately irrelevant, the Tories have been committed to Austerity, shrinking the state, reducing public services, privatisation etc for the last 40 years. Whether this paper existed or not, they would have gone down the same route because it’s what they have always believed, Osborne wasn’t some kind of Keynesian who read that paper and had some kind of conversion to right wing, free market economics all of a sudden.

[Wabaloolah]

Got paid today and the NI reduction has kicked in which is good news I guess

[Nobby Reserve]

The paper is ultimately irrelevant, the Tories have been committed to Austerity, shrinking the state, reducing public services, privatisation etc for the last 40 years. Whether this paper existed or not, they would have gone down the same route because it’s what they have always believed, Osborne wasn’t some kind of Keynesian who read that paper and had some kind of conversion to right wing, free market economics all of a sudden.

This is spot on.

Austerity was a political choice, and the claimed economic support for it was just an attempt to give it a veneer of justification.

I firmly believe the plan of Gideon and Cameron was to run-down public services under the guise of economic necessity, get the general public used to them being run-down and barely functioning, and then when the economy recovered to a more normal footing, use any surplus to cut taxes - benefitting most, obviously, those with the highest incomes.

[rob1966]

Got paid today and the NI reduction has kicked in which is good news I guess

Problem is, what have they reduced the funding to, to pay for it?

[Jiminy Cricket]

This is spot on.

Austerity was a political choice, and the claimed economic support for it was just an attempt to give it a veneer of justification.

I firmly believe the plan of Gideon and Cameron was to run-down public services under the guise of economic necessity, get the general public used to them being run-down and barely functioning, and then when the economy recovered to a more normal footing, use any surplus to cut taxes - benefitting most, obviously, those with the highest incomes.

But of course. I don't think anyone was suggesting otherwise - I know I wasn't.

[Wabaloolah]

Problem is, what have they reduced the funding to, to pay for it?

oh absolutely, I suspect we won't find that out until the loons are kicked out of office.

[Wabaloolah]

Agree with the above, Austerity was an ideological choice that Cameron and Osborne made, they got lucky in a way with the Financial Crisis in 2008 and successfully planted the seed that it was all Gordon Brown's fault and Austerity was the only choice.

They should have been a one term government but the electorate blamed the Lib Dems and Ed Miliband didn't defend Labour's record in government.

Austerity would always have happened under the Tories and pretty much always does.

The poor get poorer, and the rich get richer, this time though they've managed to make the people in the middle poorer too after a succession of Budget fuck ups

[Jshooters]

But of course. I don't think anyone was suggesting otherwise - I know I wasn't.

Agreed. It was just highlighting the fact that the ‘justification’ for austerity that the client media no doubt slavishly reported at the time was fundamentally flawed

[PaulF]

Got paid today and the NI reduction has kicked in which is good news I guess

Does it buy you more than a pint a week?  Maybe a pint of milk?

--edit-- apologies if that's a bit personal.