Topic: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"

[Red-Soldier]

Its a massive risk to have an election in winter. im a presiding officer at a polling station and I know we are worried about the weather, if it snows or is icy the numbers coming to vote will be a tiny percentage of the population, never mind the problems with staff getting to the stations to open on time or get away to hand the ballot boxes in at the count. who would come out in the dark (4:30 PM onwards) in feezing conditions to vote for any of these idiots.

I agree.

I live in the SW where we get some of the best weather in the UK.  But I can see the numbers being tiny in other parts of the UK, Wales, Mid, North, Cornwall etc., if it's snow/ice/blizzard conditions.

[BarryCrocker]

Holding elections on work days is BS. Should be a Saturday to encourage more people to attend.

[Dr. Beaker]

We need a cold Siberian blast to cover the north of England with a six inch layer of solid ice in mid-December. Corbyns's best friend could be said (not for the first time) to be the Beast from the East.

Some knowlegeable commentators and even the poll guru John Curtice are making some suprisingly optimistic (from our point of view) noises - but I'm still filled with dread, absolute heart-chilling dread.

[classycarra]

I agree with you and a lot of others that the thought of overly influencing politics 'back in the UK' with your vote is an uncomfortable one. But this isn't an election that's going to be primarily about domestic policy, in which you'll be treading on toes and out of the loop.

You won't be someone making their voting based on free travel for OAPS/refunding middle class graduates loans/booting out foreign people/tax breaks for small businesses. You'd be someone voting on, among other things, what your citizenship is going to mean. What your passport is going to do. How you will be treated on travel outside of your country of residence and the UK.

You'd also, if voting for the Labour candidate to ward off the second placed conservative threat, be voting in (on balance) the best interests of residents of the UK. As a remainer who is familiar with the economic analysis of what brexit would cost. Last but not least, you have a vote legally, it's your entitlement - it's not like you're pulling the wool over someones eyes by registering a fake address or something.

Genuinely the bigger moral dilemma in my view is voting for a party that's got institutional problems with anti-semitism, a culture of bullying and poor workplace mental health, with a weirdo anti western fetishism marriage of anti western regressive left OAPs and islamist fascists. It's a dilemma I share, having just moved into Keir Startmers seat. On the one hand I think his passivity has seen him be the leaderships useful idiot, legitimising their crap brexit position up until this summer. On the other I know that he's someone on the inside of the party who is trying to achieve what I want.

[Henry Gale]

We need a cold Siberian blast to cover the north of England with a six inch layer of solid ice in mid-December. Corbyns's best friend could be said (not for the first time) to be the Beast from the East.

Some knowlegeable commentators and even the poll guru John Curtice are making some suprisingly optimistic (from our point of view) noises - but I'm still filled with dread, absolute heart-chilling dread.

And he would still lose. There's more chance of Man Utd winning the league this year than Corbyn winning this election.

[Red Viper]

Last time we did that it was counted as a vote for Brexit. I will be voting Labour as it's fairly close between them and the Tories where I live, but I'm not happy about it.

Best case, Labour get a majority (I know they won't) and then what? We get a new referendum where the new prime minister campaigns for........... probably the same thing as the current one.

Not to downplay Brexit, it's a big issue, but it's still just one issue in this election. Also I think Brexit is inevitable now so you're basically voting for a Labour Brexit or a Tory one.

Not a hard choice is it?

And if anyone is stupid enough to be duped by the Lib Dems again then quite frankly you can fuck off. Should only be voted for in Lid Dem/Tory marginals and even then I'd feel sick about having to do it. They'll go with the Tories again if the chance presents itself.

[Red Beret]

I'm in Louise Ellman's constituency.  40k voted for her last time; a majority of 35k, on a 63% turnout.  For once in Liverpool my vote might actually make a difference.  I'm sadly guessing though that people will continue to vote for the rosette, rather than the face behind it.

[Dr. Beaker]

And he would still lose. There's more chance of Man Utd winning the league this year than Corbyn winning this election.

My guts tell me you're right, but my head says that you shouldn't write anything off in this election - every constituency is a lottery. Plus Johnson has a few more skeletons in the closet, any of which could be a gamechanger. I'm sure some dusty old files will be coming out of journalists filing cabinets now that the rainy day has arrived. Corbyn's skeletons are yeterday's news. I've read here and there that there is evidence that Johnson's shine is wearing a bit thin with the public so hopefully the saturation that is about to come could start to make him a liability. I'm trying desperately here - help.

[TSC]

We need a cold Siberian blast to cover the north of England with a six inch layer of solid ice in mid-December. Corbyns's best friend could be said (not for the first time) to be the Beast from the East.

A repeat of the 2010 winter would be required when the country was basically snowed in for December.

[AndyMuller]

Need to get rid of these Tory c*nts by any means necessary.

[Dr. Beaker]

Amber Rudd not standing in forthcoming election.

[Alan_X]

Holding elections on work days is BS. Should be a Saturday to encourage more people to attend.

How many hours do you work? Polling stations open at 7.00am and close at 10.00pm. That's fifteen hours available to vote on a weekday and polling stations are local by definition. I've managed to vote even when I've been working hundreds of miles away from home.

If it's a rural area, get a postal vote.

Saturdays wouldn't be any better as many people go out for the day.

[Sangria]

Not to downplay Brexit, it's a big issue, but it's still just one issue in this election. Also I think Brexit is inevitable now so you're basically voting for a Labour Brexit or a Tory one.

Not a hard choice is it?

And if anyone is stupid enough to be duped by the Lib Dems again then quite frankly you can fuck off. Should only be voted for in Lid Dem/Tory marginals and even then I'd feel sick about having to do it. They'll go with the Tories again if the chance presents itself.

"The British people have made their decision. We must respect that result and Article 50 has to be invoked now so that we negotiate an exit from European Union."

"The real fight starts now."

[Alan_X]

Not to downplay Brexit, it's a big issue, but it's still just one issue in this election. Also I think Brexit is inevitable now so you're basically voting for a Labour Brexit or a Tory one.

Not a hard choice is it?

And if anyone is stupid enough to be duped by the Lib Dems again then quite frankly you can fuck off. Should only be voted for in Lid Dem/Tory marginals and even then I'd feel sick about having to do it. They'll go with the Tories again if the chance presents itself.

Sorry mate, I know where you're coming from but I was burned by Corbyn after 2017 and I won't 'be stupid enough to be duped' again by Corbyn's Labour. In the highly unlikely event of Labour winning an election in December, I know that pricks like Corbyn, Milne and McCluskey would use the win as an excuse for pushing for Labour Brexit. I won't forget that "80% voted for Leave Parties".

The damage that Brexit (or Lexit) will do can't be downplayed. It will affect the people of this country for decades and hit the worst off hardest. Brexit only seems inevitable because the Opposition Leader and his minders have failed to do anything about it until the last minute. And even then it's equivocation and vacillation. 

Brexit is a right-wing wet-dream and Corbyn and his mates have allowed it to happen. He is complicit in something that could make austerity look like a kids party.

The Labour Party is a hollowed out sham under Corbyn.

[Robinred]

Hopefully there will be an icy snap and the oldies won`t want to leave the house that day.

Only “certain” oldies surely? Or, like KH, do you hate all of us?😉

[Kashinoda]

People on this thread saying vote Labour if you're a remainer

Loyalty is making some blind.

Up the Dems.

[Red Viper]

People on this thread saying vote Labour if you're a remainer

Loyalty is making some blind.

Up the Dems.

Good luck with that attitude. Worked a treat in 2010 didn't it.

[Kashinoda]

Good luck with that attitude. Worked a treat in 2010 didn't it.

Did it not? Good to know.

Voting to this Labour party and watching the shit show over the last 2 years is no doubt worse then any Tory-Dem Coalition.

Brexit is more important than nationalising the railways or scrapping university fees.

[Red Viper]

Did it not? Good to know.

Voting to this Labour party and watching the shit show over the last 2 years is no doubt worse then any Tory-Dem Coalition.

Brexit is more important than nationalising the railways or scrapping university fees.

Oh dear. Not been paying attention the last 9 years have we?

[OneTouchFooty]

People on this thread saying vote Labour if you're a remainer

Loyalty is making some blind.

Up the Dems.

It’s all about the lesser of the evils isn’t it though if you live in certain seats?

I’d certainly struggle to back a party that will vote in line with the Tories 9 times out of 10 but spout a few nice friendly platitudes occasionally.

[classycarra]

One day into the election campaign and I see the focus on attacking Tories but not denigrating the Lib Dems - to try and help them beat Tories in their marginal seats - is working an absolute treat

[Kashinoda]

Oh dear. Not been paying attention the last 9 years have we?

I'll be paying attention to the 9 years following leaving the EU, let's see how it compares then.

[killer-heels]

I'll be paying attention to the 9 years following leaving the EU, let's see how it compares then.

Didn’t the Lib Dem’s vote for a referendum?

[Alan_X]

Oh dear. Not been paying attention the last 9 years have we?

I've been paying attention for the last four years when Corbyn helped to lose the Refendum, aided the Tories over Brexit and been utterly useless as leader of the opposition.

[TepidT2O]

I've been paying attention for the last four years when Corbyn helped to lose the Refendum, aided the Tories over Brexit and been utterly useless as leader of the opposition.

Yeah but apart from that.......

[Trada]

Another 139,000 new people have registered to vote since yesterday i have a feeling it will be up to close to 3m in the last few months once reg ends.

Sadly I cant see their being any chance of Johnson doing leadership debates after the mauling he got today from Jeremy.

And Tories jeering the Green tie that Jeremy was wearting I guess they didnt realise it for Greenfell.

[Trada]

I've been paying attention for the last four years when Corbyn helped to lose the Refendum, aided the Tories over Brexit and been utterly useless as leader of the opposition.

Labour voted against the Tories everytime over Brexit apart from once.

[classycarra]

And Tories jeering the Green tie that Jeremy was wearting I guess they didnt realise it for Greenfell.

Just as a gentle correction, it’s actually called Grenfell tower

[Nick110581]

Can someone clarify that we only need to vote if we intend to do a postal one?

[Raid]

Amber Rudd not standing in forthcoming election.

Another one jumping before being pushed. I don't think she was getting the Tory whip back regardless.

I don't think I've ever seen so many MPs standing down going into an Election. I think it's over 50 and counting so far across all parties.

[Kashinoda]

Labour voted against the Tories everytime over Brexit apart from once.

You're missing the 2016 date when he chose to remain largely apathetic on the EU and most important referendum we've had in decades.

He's a fence sitter at a time we needed strong opposition to this crap.





He's continued to be more interested in power than Brexit ever since, voting for and against when it suits.

[Welshred]

Labour voted against the Tories everytime over Brexit apart from once.

You do realise that has just listed the number of times Corbyn has failed right? Not succeeded or won but failed. Hes a failure and a danger, under him a vote for Labour is a vote for Brexit

[The Gulleysucker]

Get with the progamme, failure is the new success and that's how you sell it as a positive.

I recall in the old 1970-80's IBM sales handbook,there was a section under selling the benefits that included emphasis on using what was called Product Non-Features as part of the selling technique. Every item for sale in the catalogue included a sheet describing these, a list of things that the product didn't have or do.

[Linudden]

We need a cold Siberian blast to cover the north of England with a six inch layer of solid ice in mid-December. Corbyns's best friend could be said (not for the first time) to be the Beast from the East.

Some knowlegeable commentators and even the poll guru John Curtice are making some suprisingly optimistic (from our point of view) noises - but I'm still filled with dread, absolute heart-chilling dread.

Lower turnout in Britain and America seemingly always favours the right or populist right, anytime, anywhere (European elections, anyone?) I think from a Tory standpoint their chances are greater around the winter solstice than summer solstice because of less favourable weather conditions. The older voters don't care if it's 2°C and raining in torrents with 30 mph winds, they just get out. I think the turnout will probably match or get really close to 2017 though, but not necessarily exceed it, because of the season it's held in.

[KillieRed]

Only “certain” oldies surely? Or, like KH, do you hate all of us?😉

Unfortunately the ones who can afford to run cars or those that will be rounded up in the nursing homes by ‘helpful’ political activists will still vote. And as Elmo pointed out, it’s the tax dodging students we have to worry about. Bloody students. 😜

[mkingdon]

People on this thread saying vote Labour if you're a remainer

Loyalty is making some blind.

Up the Dems.

No point wasting a vote in some seats.

In mine, Labour won in 2017 by about 3500 votes over the Tories, with Labour getting around 40,000 votes. The Lib Dems got 1,800.

I'm all for remain but that sort of swing isn't happening, and a few thousand votes pissed up the wall for the Libs lets in the Tories here.

No thanks.

[Kashinoda]

No point wasting a vote in some seats.

In mine, Labour won in 2017 by about 3500 votes over the Tories, with Labour getting around 40,000 votes. The Lib Dems got 1,800.

I'm all for remain but that sort of swing isn't happening, and a few thousand votes pissed up the wall for the Libs lets in the Tories here.

No thanks.

I'm not saying you shouldn't vote tactically I'm just laughing at the notion Labour is a party for remain.

I'd vote Lib Dems if I could but I'll be voting Labour despite it being pointless to do so in my constituency which has been a Tory safe seat since the 20's .

[Linudden]

I'm not saying you shouldn't vote tactically I'm just laughing at the notion Labour is a party for remain.

I'd vote Lib Dems if I could but I'll be voting Labour despite it being pointless to do so in my constituency which has been a Tory safe seat since the 20's .

If Con +3 across Britain equals Con + 21 in Southend I fail to see why you'd bother tactially voting and not voting your conscience to be honest. I'd suggest it'd take at least Lab + 10 nationwide (if not Lab +12) to flip your seat and that's not going to happen since it's not 1997 this time round so what's even the point? Last time round Corbyn used his high popular vote number to claim his mandate so if you don't like him and won't get a Labour MP regardless your vote in a safe blue seat would only be used as a proxy by him to stay on if he loses the election.

My rough prediction for Southend West based on recent polling if the election was held today:

Con 45
Lab 22
Lib 14
Brx 12

So my customer advice to you as a political scientist is to vote LibDem if you think they're closest to you.

[Dr. Beaker]

Lower turnout in Britain and America seemingly always favours the right or populist right, anytime, anywhere (European elections, anyone?) I think from a Tory standpoint their chances are greater around the winter solstice than summer solstice because of less favourable weather conditions. The older voters don't care if it's 2°C and raining in torrents with 30 mph winds, they just get out. I think the turnout will probably match or get really close to 2017 though, but not necessarily exceed it, because of the season it's held in.

I still tend to think of this as being remain v Brexit than Tory v labour, and I still tend to think, although I'm undoubtedly wrong, that Brexiters are a load of thick fuckers, whom if you poke them with a stick will come out swinging an spouting,"Take back control", but if you don't disturb them they will blancmange on the couch indefinitely. If it was a normal GE  then I agree with your assessment, that has always been the accepted rule.

[Kashinoda]

If Con +3 across Britain equals Con + 21 in Southend I fail to see why you'd bother tactially voting and not voting your conscience to be honest. I'd suggest it'd take at least Lab + 10 nationwide (if not Lab +12) to flip your seat and that's not going to happen since it's not 1997 this time round so what's even the point? Last time round Corbyn used his high popular vote number to claim his mandate so if you don't like him and won't get a Labour MP regardless your vote in a safe blue seat would only be used as a proxy by him to stay on if he loses the election.

My rough prediction for Southend West based on recent polling if the election was held today:

Con 45
Lab 22
Lib 14
Brx 12

So my customer advice to you as a political scientist is to vote LibDem if you think they're closest to you.

How can Corbyn stay on after two failed elections? The second one against Boris no less.

The only reason I hold out faint hope of a further swing is the possibility of returning students in time for a December 12th vote, and possibly the weather holding off older voters.  On the flip side Labour enjoyed an extra 8000 votes from 2015 to 17 from what I suspect are Tory/Lib Dem remain voters... that's likely to go down the pan now.

I'll decide closer to voting day.