Topic: UK GE and Local Elections, plus polls, and policy.

[Jiminy Cricket]

Reposting directly from the Electoral Calculus site, so it doesn't get lost in the Labour thread:

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_vipoll_20240215.html


Tories facing electoral decimation. And yes I know that's not technically the correct use of the word "decimate".

EDIT: I found this paragraph in the report telling:

I want the Tories totally wiped out - not a single MP. Possible, but highly, highly unlikely. However, what is possible (and I'd love) is for the LibDems to win the second largest number of seats and they become the Official Opposition. This could lead to the true demise of the Tories as they become increasingly sidelined (much like the Liberal Party 100 years ago).

Edit: numerous typos.

[Red Beret]

I want the Tories totally wiped out - not a single MP. Possible, but highly, highly unlikely. However, what it possible (and I'd love) is for LibDems to wins the second greatest number of seats and they become the Official Opposition. This could lead to the true demise of the Tories as they become increasingly sidelined (must like the Liberal Party 100 years ago).

That is my hope also. I'm hoping for a sea-change where we see genuine centre-left politics take hold over the next 20 years or so. The Lib-Dems would likely become more centre-right in such a scenario, as they absorb Tory refugees.

It's why I'm not too concerned about Labour's £28bn climate change committent - I see it as a temporary setback; potentially too radical for a first term, but doable for a second term.

What I found interesting about that poll is that the SNP hold up surprisingly well, still retaining at least 40 seats. I also enjoyed the detailed explanation in the article as to how they cross checked the poll and ran the numbers through multiple variations and poll-types to arrive at their numbers.

As things stand, the Tories could see getting over a hundred MPs as an achievement. What I hope for though, is that polls like this lead to the self fulfilling prophecy scenario - people believe it will happen, so it does. Voters feel freed by the numbers to switch their vote after a lifetime of going through the motions, and many more (likely hard core Tories) just don't bother voting at all because they feel the result is a foregone conclusion. Labour voters, by contrast, no the dangers of complacency, and won't take the result for granted.

Again, without the EU to snipe at, the Tories have no function. Their whole purpose is unite people behind hate of the "non British" as a cover for feathering the nests of their rich pals. But they've lost their fig leaf of respectability, and now there's nothing to obscure the corruption.

Many absolutely dangerous Tory gobshites losing their seats hopefully drives them to the sidelines, or into the arms of Reform. On election night there will be many Tories through gritted teeth trying to spin such a disaster as a good result for them, as it means a complete reset for the party and that the only way is up. But I want it just to be the beginnings of flushing the Tory turd for good.

[Wabaloolah]

Sounds about right. Between Bozo's sleaze and Truss's incompetence, the Tories were well and truly fucked. But it's somewhat depressing that this is what it took to wake the electorate up.

well people are willing to forgive many things but when it starts hitting them in their pockets, they have long memories

[Wabaloolah]

Lib Dem is the obvious choice. They won the constituency in 2005.

I think Rochdale was long held by now known child abuser Liberal 'Sir' Cyril Smith

[Wabaloolah]

I want the Tories totally wiped out - not a single MP. Possible, but highly, highly unlikely. However, what is possible (and I'd love) is for the LibDems to win the second largest number of seats and they become the Official Opposition. This could lead to the true demise of the Tories as they become increasingly sidelined (much like the Liberal Party 100 years ago).

Edit: numerous typos.

them getting under 100 sears would be the stuff of dreams, I fear it's unlikely and the polls will close in the run in, but hoping for a number of Portillo moments in 1997 for sure.

There was one poll out yesterday that showed the lead down to 11 points, down from 18 a month ago, hopefully just an outlier and there isn't a trend in upcoming polls.

The lead has been consistent, however, and the ones to watch are the MRP polls that Red Beret alluded too, as they correctly predicted the 2017 and 2019 elections. This one was 18000 people, so the margin or error will be much lower than ones of 1000 to 2000

[TheShanklyGates]

Good night for Labour and a terrible one for the Tories. Strong performances in both by-elections from Refuck unfortunately.

[CheshireDave]

Lovely stuff. Saw that lanky streak of piss Lord Snooty playing down the Kingswood result overnight as not that bad for the Tories. Prick. Hopefully his seat goes too in the not too distant future.

[killer-heels]

They are going to have to throw everything at Reform to get them to stand down.

[Riquende]

Strong performances in both by-elections from Refuck unfortunately.

Well yes and no. It's not pleasant to be reminded that there's a significant segment of the British people who could line up behind them, I do get that. But that group does exist, and they are traditionally the Conservative 'Extra Twat' Core that usually faithfully line up to keep awful Tory MPs in parliament. Having them excised from the Tories ends up keeping both locked out of any sort of influence under FPTP. I don't like FPTP in principle, but after seeing the Left frequently splinter in the face of a united Right it's nice to see it volte-face and hit the other side hard for once.

The usual Tory suspects (Rees-Mogg seems to be up early and at it already) will be saying how the party need to move to the Right to re-capture the Reform lot, and making a big deal that in Kingswood the 2 parties together would have beaten Labour. That though, denies the reality that a Tory party dancing to Reform's tune would maybe have bled extra voters from the centre, some of which would have ended up reinforcing Labour. Or at least staying home (as it seems a lot of them did yesterday).

I don't know in the end, ultimately you can wargame all this stuff out theoretically but you only get one chance to send the voters into the booths and then have to scrabble around with the numbers afterwards.

[Statto Red]

Lovely stuff. Saw that lanky streak of piss Lord Snooty playing down the Kingswood result overnight as not that bad for the Tories. Prick. Hopefully his seat goes too in the not too distant future.

That's like saying it's a good result getting beaten 4-0 instead of 7-0.

[TSC]

They are going to have to throw everything at Reform to get them to stand down.

Probably, or draft Frottage in.  Either way it will likely at best dilute the GE outcome for the Tories, but won’t change the result itself.

Given by-election results and the current polls, there is zip chance Sunak calls an earlyish election.   The longer they cling on then potentially the greater the punishment at the ballot box.

[Red Beret]

Tories would likely have held onto Kingswood if not for Reform. Problem for the the Tories is I don't think they have anything to offer Reform to get them to stand down.

When you compare how Reform fared to Change UK, it's bothersome. On the one hand you had experienced politicians aghast at what at happened to their parties and desperate to force genuine reform. They sank without trace. Then you have these knuckle draggers appealing to the worst instincts of people, who are little more than a right wing pressure group - yet they now poll better than the Lib-Dems.

Yeah, I know their support is spread out and diluted to the point they can't win a seat, but it still pisses me off.

[Red Beret]

Probably, or draft Frottage in.  Either way it will likely at best dilute the GE outcome for the Tories, but won’t change the result itself.

Given by-election results and the current polls, there is zip chance Sunak calls an earlyish election.   The longer they cling on then potentially the greater the punishment at the ballot box.

I think the longer he waits the worse it will get. The voters want him and the Tories gone, and the longer they delay the inevitable the angrier the electorate will become. The likelihood is voters will only become more eager to punish them.

I mean, you've got Jeremy Cnut talking about fresh austerity when you have multiple councils going to the wall. We're saddled with a high tax, poor service economy, because all the money has been sucked up by the Tories' rich mates. Wouldn't surprise me to see riots in the summer.

[Sangria]

Tories would likely have held onto Kingswood if not for Reform. Problem for the the Tories is I don't think they have anything to offer Reform to get them to stand down.

When you compare how Reform fared to Change UK, it's bothersome. On the one hand you had experienced politicians aghast at what at happened to their parties and desperate to force genuine reform. They sank without trace. Then you have these knuckle draggers appealing to the worst instincts of people, who are little more than a right wing pressure group - yet they now poll better than the Lib-Dems.

Yeah, I know their support is spread out and diluted to the point they can't win a seat, but it still pisses me off.

Whenever people think about how this and that argument makes more sense to them, we have to remember that we have a UK democracy with UK voters.

[Red Beret]

Whenever people think about how this and that argument makes more sense to them, we have to remember that we have a UK democracy with UK voters.

[Kashinoda]

The usual Tory suspects (Rees-Mogg seems to be up early and at it already) will be saying how the party need to move to the Right to re-capture the Reform lot, and making a big deal that in Kingswood the 2 parties together would have beaten Labour. That though, denies the reality that a Tory party dancing to Reform's tune would maybe have bled extra voters from the centre, some of which would have ended up reinforcing Labour. Or at least staying home (as it seems a lot of them did yesterday).

I mean he may be right but the left and center-left vote has been split Labour/Dems/Greens for decades.

The UKIP lot already switched to Tory and clearly felt they werent heard, I think they'll be less likely to do it again. For everyone watching on the Tory party just try to pander to everyone they can and have no clear vision.

[Ray K]

Reform are going to absolutely destroy the Tories at the GE. They'll end up getting ~8% of the votes, but the vast, vast majority of those voters are former tories aged 50+.  You know, the blue rinse brigade from Tunbridge Wells who vote every single time. They're hammering huge holes in blue wall seats, never mind the red wall ones.

[Fromola]

Depends on Reform. The Tories great advantage in first past the post is they have all the right leaning votes. The left/centre is divided between several parties, so they get big majorities historically with 40% or even less of the vote.

UKIP muddied the waters a bit, but they took from Labour votes as well, as it was a Brexit issue.

Brexit Party were ordered to stand down by the right wing press/interest groups as they were panicking in case Labour won with the Tory vote split. They stood down in Tory seats and Tories won them all pretty much. They would have won even more Labour seats had Brexit Party stood down in all of them.

Reform won't win a single seat (the electoral system is bollocks tbf). But if they pick up around 10% of the vote then that's mostly taken off the Tories because it's no longer a Brexit party but a right-wing interests one. That'll decimate the Tories and Labour will have a much bigger majority than even Blair did. Tories will still get 20%+ of the vote, but Reform could wipe them out.

[TepidT2O]

Reform polling so well is catastrophic for the Tories.
Interesting though that in. Kings wood they still got 35% of the vote, I’d like to see turnout by age group, I wonder if it was more heavily skewed to pensioners voting than normal??

[Fromola]

Reform polling so well is catastrophic for the Tories.
Interesting thighs that in. Kings wood they still got 35% of the vote, I’d like to see turnout by age group, I wonder if it was more heavily skewed to pensioners voting than normal??

Turnout was only half what it was in 2019 but the Tories dropped from 27,000 votes in 2019 to 8000 here. The Tory majority in 2019 was just higher than Labour's entire vote this time.

An even bigger issue than Reform in this election for the Tories could be their vote staying at home. Reform is a protest vote against them and so is staying at home. Tory and Reform vote combined only just beats the Labour vote in this by-election by 70 odd votes. And in a seat where they had a big majority.

Lib Dem and Green vote combined is just short of Reform as well, so it just shows how entitled the Tories are to the right wing/conservative vote. In reality a lot of Tories (particularly older voters in the Shires and Home Counties) won't want to vote Sunak, combined with anger over immigration and general GB News/Telgraph/Mail complaints.

[CornerFlag]

Interesting thighs that in. Kings wood

Something about those South Gloucestershire legs, Tepid?

[TepidT2O]

Something about those South Gloucestershire legs, Tepid?

autocorrect hell.

[Red Beret]

autocorrect hell.

[thaddeus]

Good night for Labour and a terrible one for the Tories. Strong performances in both by-elections from Refuck unfortunately.

A Tory defeat or two is always a good way to start the day but the Wellingborough hammering is particularly satisfying.  Peter Bone has always been a horrible bastard and his (alleged) blackmail to get his long-term partner to be the Tory candidate has spectacularly backfired.  More fool the Tory big wigs for being such cowards and giving in to Bone.

Rees-Mogg and Richard Holden (Tory chairman) calling for a reuniting of the right to stop Starmer.  Just as the Lib Dems won't be fooled by the Tories again anytime soon, neither will Brexit Party/Reform UK.  Reform polling at over 10% in both seats is worrying but it's a problem for another day.

[TepidT2O]

They pushed for brexit in order to try to appease ukip voters.

And now look, their voters are turning to the “I like Nigel Farrage’s yellow teeth” party in another form.  Fuck around and find out.

The Tories are turning from a conservative Party to an English nationalist populist party. To me, it seems likey that after the next election, the yellow toothed one comes back into the conservative party and has considerable influence within it. 

[Red Beret]

Rees-Mogg and Richard Holden (Tory chairman) calling for a reuniting of the right to stop Starmer.  Just as the Lib Dems won't be fooled by the Tories again anytime soon, neither will Brexit Party/Reform UK.  Reform polling at over 10% in both seats is worrying but it's a problem for another day.

Well we know what he really means - he wants to cut a deal with Reform.

I don't think Reform/Far Right will be interested this time. The Brexit Party in 2019 was able to hit Labour hard and boost the Tories by standing down; ultimately they pulled the Tories away from the centre ground to try and shore up their core vote. But if Reform want to supplant, infiltrate or assimilate the Tories, then they need them weak and in opposition.

As I said earlier, I expect many centre right voters to move to the Lib Dems if the Tories are consumed by the far right. But even if the Tories end up on only 80 seats at the next election, right wing voters haven't gone away. It's a once in a generation opportunity for Labour to really make a difference.

[killer-heels]

Yep.  Reform are going to take a lot of Tory votes.

I still expect them to stand down.

Not sure they stand down this time because i think the right want to see them decimated and then reborn as an even harder right version of themselves.

[Red Beret]

Yeah, it's hard to tell whether Reform are just flexing their muscles to show the Tories what they can do, or whether they really intend to see the Tories go down this time.

I'd say the latter. in 2019, The Brexit Party standing down against the Tories and going solely after Labour likely made the difference between the Tories getting a slender majority/being the largest party to having a thumping 80 majority (now down to 55 incidentally).

This time around, it's not going to make a difference for the Tories' chances. Reform standing down might prevent a rout from turning into an apocalypse for the Tories, but they're still going to lose. This is likely the moment where Reform will want to position themselves as a "credible" (lol) party of the right, rather than merely a pressure group. To that end, I'd say a heavy Tory defeat works in Reform's favour.

The Tories have nothing to bargain with if they're not in power setting an agenda dictated to them by the far right.

[thaddeus]

Neither the Tories, or Reform, will be scared of a Starmer Labour, when they do win.  If they were led by someone from the left of the party, it would be different, I think.

I agree that they're not scared of his policies.  With Labour's expected majority he could enact some genuinely progressive policies and make it so that any future Tory government would find it very hard to undo them.  The Tories have been trying to find a way to privatise or destroy the NHS for over 70 years and still only had limited success!

I think they might be scared that he hogs the centre ground though.  Politics in the UK is still far less divisive than many countries and elections are won or lost on moderate voters.  There's probably a risk that a squeezed out Tory party and their media backers try to increase those divisions such that future elections are won or lost on extremist voters.

[Libertine]

Interesting data on where the Reform vote would go in their absence. Not a monolithic alt-Tory block.



https://twitter.com/LukeTryl/status/1758328944640602403

[Fromola]

Well we know what he really means - he wants to cut a deal with Reform.

I don't think Reform/Far Right will be interested this time. The Brexit Party in 2019 was able to hit Labour hard and boost the Tories by standing down; ultimately they pulled the Tories away from the centre ground to try and shore up their core vote. But if Reform want to supplant, infiltrate or assimilate the Tories, then they need them weak and in opposition.

As I said earlier, I expect many centre right voters to move to the Lib Dems if the Tories are consumed by the far right. But even if the Tories end up on only 80 seats at the next election, right wing voters haven't gone away. It's a once in a generation opportunity for Labour to really make a difference.

The stakes were high in 2019. They were terrified of a Labour win because Corbyn would have been PM with a radical left wing government. Added to the fact it would have stopped or watered down Brexit. Frottage was pressued into standing Brexit Party down as a result..

This time around Brexit has already been done and the Tories have had 5 disastrous years in government. Plus the prospect of a broadly centrist Keir Starmer government isn't the apocalyptic prospect Corbyn was to them. There's the acceptance that Labour will win anyway at this point, so why would Reform step down? I think Reform/Frottage idea is to let the Tories get trounced and then push them further to the right in opposition, where they can be more populist without the reality of governance (being unable to deal with the boats/high net immigration/economic realities etc).

[Red Beret]

All Starmer really has to do for now is show Labour is a safe pair of hands. He needs to make some tough choices, but if he can turn the economy around and start helping people to feel better about their lives, he should find himself in a position to make more radical choices later on in his tenure.

For now it's all about not spooking the voters so he can maximise Labour's majority. It's the fact that he's not doing anything scary that the Tories' are struggling to attack him over anything. I fully expect the £28bn green deal to be back on the agenda within three years; certainly from 2029 onwards.

My main worry now is that voters suddenly freak out over the prospect of Labour having a supermajority of 250 seats. I want Tory voters to feel defeated enough to stay at home.

[killer-heels]

How do you go from Reform to The Green Party?

[Jake]

Good night for Labour and a terrible one for the Tories. Strong performances in both by-elections from Refuck unfortunately.

How the fuck has the BNP beat lib dem and green in those two places? Are they racist shitholes?

[Red Beret]

How do you go from Reform to The Green Party?

I guess racists can be concerned about the environment?

The Green Party was originally started by ex-Conservatives. It's obviously come a long way since then.

[Jake]

Wouldn't surprise me to see riots in the summer.

I'd love to see that. Millions marching through the streets and putting Rishi's head on a fucking spike.

[killer-heels]

How the fuck has the BNP beat lib dem and green in those two places? Are they racist shitholes?

Northampton innit. So yeah.

[Elmo!]

How do you go from Reform to The Green Party?

There's probably cross over between the NIMBY conservationist don't build on the green belt crowd, and the anti-immigrant crowd. They don't want the country to have to build over the green belt to house all these people.

[oldfordie]

Yep.  Reform are going to take a lot of Tory votes.

I still expect them to stand down.

I wasn't sure but I am now after listening to Richard Tice talking about it last night, he left no doubt Reform will be doing no deals with the Torys, he said they will be standing in every seat as well.

[thaddeus]

Interesting data on where the Reform vote would go in their absence. Not a monolithic alt-Tory block.



https://twitter.com/LukeTryl/status/1758328944640602403

It maybe disguises that many of them are/were Tory supporters but have become disenchanted.

Those that would jump to the Greens look like your classic protest voters, fed up with the Tories but won't vote for another major party under any circumstance.

I think you can also bundle Tory, "would not vote" and "another party" into people with right leaning ideals.  That's a considerable proportion.