Author Topic: Results Comparison Thread 2019-20 (Read 48530 times)

JP-65 · « **Reply #40 on:** October 7, 2019, 04:46:32 pm »

Quote from: Anthony on October 7, 2019, 09:55:55 am

Given this thread started as a reassurance that we might not be doing as badly as we thought (when we really, really needed that reassurance ) it's interesting to see that Man Utd are only 1 point down on their equivalent points last season and are projected 5th out if the Top 6.

Are you still doing the whole league table? Everything's so topsy turvey at the moment it would be interesting to see whether the interlopers (Burnley, Leicester, Palace) are doing as well as they look...

Anthony, I stopped doing the full league a few years ago as it was too much work for little return (any early runner we had, faded away fairly quickly).

Leicester has a chance to keep going I believe, maybe competition for United for a Europa League position?

Anthony · « **Reply #41 on:** October 7, 2019, 04:51:06 pm »

Quote from: JP-65 on October 7, 2019, 04:46:32 pm

Anthony, I stopped doing the full league a few years ago as it was too much work for little return (any early runner we had, faded away fairly quickly).

Leicester has a chance to keep going I believe, maybe competition for United for a Europa League position?

Cheers, I thought that might be the case...

JP-65 · « **Reply #42 on:** October 21, 2019, 10:31:53 pm »

Match 9 update:

Other than ourselves, so far, the rest of the top 6 looks like when Leicester won it in 15-16 (interesting that they're back in the mix for the first time since then as well)

I'll start to rank the Top 6 Results Matrix on current league position after the next round of matches.

JP-65 · « **Reply #43 on:** October 21, 2019, 10:33:06 pm »

Just noticed that I've got a formula problem with City on 2016-16 Season To Go table, I'll fix it later.

JP-65 · « **Reply #44 on:** October 21, 2019, 10:39:57 pm »

Here's a look at the season to go if we can replicate last season's 97 points.

City would have to exceed their 100 point season run rate to beat us.

All the rest are already out of the running.

JC the Messiah · « **Reply #45 on:** October 21, 2019, 10:41:40 pm »

Quote from: JP-65 on October 21, 2019, 10:39:57 pm

Here's a look at the season to go if we can replicate last season's 97 points.

City would have to exceed their 100 point season run rate to beat us.

All the rest are already out of the running.

United have their work cut out

DangerScouse · « **Reply #46 on:** October 21, 2019, 10:45:45 pm »

United have dropped as many points this season as we did in the whole of last season?

Roger Federer · « **Reply #47 on:** October 22, 2019, 08:26:30 am »

Quote from: DangerScouse on October 21, 2019, 10:45:45 pm

United have dropped as many points this season as we did in the whole of last season?

Haha, yes they have. We dropped 17 points in total, they have 10 from 27 after 9 games.

redk84 · « **Reply #48 on:** October 22, 2019, 08:54:43 am »

even if we match our 2017/2018 form we'd get 87 points this season due to the excellent start we've had.
City would have to match their last two seasons to get to 94 points this time around. I think the league will be won with around that tally....

I was convinced the standard wouldn't be as high this year but can never tell what the dropoff would be

royhendo · « **Reply #49 on:** October 22, 2019, 10:28:21 am »

So good this insight.

Kashinoda · « **Reply #50 on:** October 22, 2019, 01:15:44 pm »

sinnermichael · « **Reply #51 on:** October 27, 2019, 06:44:26 pm »

10 games played, 28 points from 30 and we’ve already played Arsenal, Chelsea, Leicester, United and Spurs.

Feels like I say it virtually every week but this is a special Liverpool team.

farawayred · « **Reply #52 on:** October 27, 2019, 07:08:30 pm »

What a beautiful table!... Quarter way into the season, I didn't expect that look.

JP-65 · « **Reply #53 on:** October 27, 2019, 10:41:49 pm »

Match 10 update:

Not much change this week, but another match closer to the end

Medellin · « **Reply #54 on:** October 29, 2019, 10:09:52 am »

JP-65 · « **Reply #55 on:** November 3, 2019, 09:19:26 pm »

Match 11 update:

The 90 point target for winning the league has been based on no 2nd place team in PL history obtaining greater than 89 points.....last season changed this (just as a few season's ago, 70 was the CL spot cut-off as now 5th placed team had gained this level of points until then)

I've added a Season To Go with 98 points being the required number to win the league (although I suspect it will be a little lower this go around)

royhendo · « **Reply #56 on:** November 4, 2019, 04:06:34 pm »

Danke!

campioni · « **Reply #57 on:** November 4, 2019, 04:35:25 pm »

The 98 point season to go is interesting. If we manage to beat City on Sunday they would be needing 2.81 ppg to reach last seasons total, or in other words they could only afford one defeat and one draw in the remaining 26 games. That would be an incredibly tall order for any team.

JP-65 · « **Reply #58 on:** November 4, 2019, 04:58:54 pm »

Quote from: campioni on November 4, 2019, 04:35:25 pm

The 98 point season to go is interesting. If we manage to beat City on Sunday they would be needing 2.81 ppg to reach last seasons total, or in other words they could only afford one defeat and one draw in the remaining 26 games. That would be an incredibly tall order for any team.

For sure, 2.60 ppg is more like what the best have done for significant periods of a season

dudleyred · « **Reply #59 on:** November 10, 2019, 10:19:05 pm »

Calling JP!!

Interested to see this after that result. Certainly +2 on last year

Hell of a run of wins needed now though

JP-65 · « **Reply #60 on:** November 10, 2019, 11:25:01 pm »

A nice one to do, match 12 update:

The Top 6 Mini Table is a thing of beauty!

JP-65 · « **Reply #61 on:** November 10, 2019, 11:27:11 pm »

A nice one from Beez!

JP-65 · « **Reply #62 on:** November 10, 2019, 11:27:41 pm »

The 98 point what if

PoetryInMotion · « **Reply #63 on:** November 10, 2019, 11:36:18 pm »

For all the talks of Chelsea in a title race, it is telling that their equivalent points to last season is effectively 0. They haven't majorly improved from last season, if at all. Maybe their harder fixtures are yet to come. They are Top 4 material, just like last season. Nothing more, nothing less.

campioni · « **Reply #64 on:** November 10, 2019, 11:49:05 pm »

Nice one JP. Some nice viewing for a Sunday evening!

dudleyred · « **Reply #65 on:** November 11, 2019, 12:13:15 am »

Great stuff JP, cheers

Roger Federer · « **Reply #66 on:** November 11, 2019, 09:55:39 am »

Quote from: PoetryInMotion on November 10, 2019, 11:36:18 pm

For all the talks of Chelsea in a title race, it is telling that their equivalent points to last season is effectively 0. They haven't majorly improved from last season, if at all. Maybe their harder fixtures are yet to come. They are Top 4 material, just like last season. Nothing more, nothing less.

And two down on the time table. I think they, and Leicester, will finish on about 75 points, it's only City that can threathen us if they go on one of their crazy runs again. In both of the last two seasons they've taken 18 wins out of 19 in one half of the season (18 wins and 1 draw in the first half of 17/18, 18 wins and 1 loss in the final 19 games of last season).

Dull Tools · « **Reply #67 on:** November 11, 2019, 10:58:12 am »

So City can only draw one and lose one to make last season's point total.

I don't think we will need 98 points this year to win the league. If they go at their 100 point season form to the end of the season they get 93 points.

I think this is the most we will need this year meaning we will need to go at 2.27 point a game of the equivalent of an 86 point season.

The league definitely isn't won yet but it would mean we would need to have a massive drop off in form. I think this is most likely in January where we have a tough run of games.

royhendo · « **Reply #68 on:** November 11, 2019, 11:03:34 am »

Thanks again sir (and also to you Beas

)

owens_2k · « **Reply #69 on:** November 11, 2019, 01:03:27 pm »

I wonder what the highest points total from any particular 38 game run is? 101 must be up there

royhendo · « **Reply #70 on:** November 11, 2019, 01:21:57 pm »

Quote from: owens_2k on November 11, 2019, 01:03:27 pm

I wonder what the highest points total from any particular 38 game run is? 101 must be up there

I think Beas is monitoring this in his twitter timeline (from memory).
https://twitter.com/BassTunedToRed

owens_2k · « **Reply #71 on:** November 12, 2019, 01:27:09 pm »

Quote from: royhendo on November 11, 2019, 01:21:57 pm

I think Beas is monitoring this in his twitter timeline (from memory).
https://twitter.com/BassTunedToRed

Can't see anything in regards to it on that timeline. In any case I'm assuming city have the record!

Talking Reds · « **Reply #72 on:** November 12, 2019, 01:59:33 pm »

Quote from: owens_2k on November 11, 2019, 01:03:27 pm

I wonder what the highest points total from any particular 38 game run is? 101 must be up there

Chelsea and City have both hit 102, it was mentioned in the APLT thread.

royhendo · « **Reply #73 on:** November 12, 2019, 02:47:45 pm »

Quote from: owens_2k on November 12, 2019, 01:27:09 pm

Can't see anything in regards to it on that timeline. In any case I'm assuming city have the record!

Dan Kennett and him periodically tweet an update on rolling season totals versus historical bests I think

redk84 · « **Reply #74 on:** November 12, 2019, 03:29:15 pm »

Finally got down to digesting this latest update

City having to go at the same rate as last two seasons to secure 91 points...

Leeway is everything. Goddamn this is gonna be a long season

Paul1611 · « **Reply #75 on:** November 14, 2019, 10:15:19 am »

Quote from: JP-65 on November 10, 2019, 11:25:01 pm

A nice one to do, match 12 update:

The Top 6 Mini Table is a thing of beauty!

Love this threat, qudos to JP!

JP - I wonder if you have ever looked at the correlation between title winners and performance in the top 6 mini table. I am willing to bet this winner of this more often than not wins the title.

Kashinoda · « **Reply #76 on:** November 14, 2019, 10:30:02 am »

dudleyred · « **Reply #77 on:** November 14, 2019, 10:40:09 am »

Relentless run coming up to match last season

We’ve got some team!

Dull Tools · « **Reply #78 on:** November 14, 2019, 11:30:51 am »

Quote from: just redk84 will do on November 12, 2019, 03:29:15 pm

Finally got down to digesting this latest update

City having to go at the same rate as last two seasons to secure 91 points...

Leeway is everything. Goddamn this is gonna be a long season

If they go at normal title winning form for the rest of the season (90 points) we only need 2 points a game to win the league which is top 4 form.

If we go at 90 points a season form for the rest of the season they need to do the equivalent of a 103 point season.

Obviously it isn't done but they can't afford to slip up before Christmas.

Paul1611 · « **Reply #79 on:** November 14, 2019, 11:50:20 am »

starting with a tough match against a vibrant Chelsea side on a run of wins. Hoping for a dirty messy draw