Not convincing? They looked alright against us. Agree on their xG though, so hopefully that regresses over the season.
An interesting point to consider on the APLT is the key assumption that the toughest away games are the same for all sides. Obviously this approach seems both fair and easy, but is this actually true for each club on an individual basis?
Let's use 1 of the games that you've mentioned above for Chelsea. Take their away game against Newcastle where historically they have really struggled, taking on average just 0.2 pts at St James over 5 visits prior to this years win. Or consider Man City who had lost their last 5 visits to Anfield prior to our 0-0 draw, so even though it was a par 1 game, they actually exceeded past performances. Regarding us, the Hawthorns ground has been an awful one for us over the years, collecting just 1.17 pts on average in our last 5 visits there, so nice to see them in the Championship.
I don't think that is a major factor. Teams step up in big games at times, because of the need to raise their game. But you can't keep that intensity up always. Chelsea struggled against Arsenal and barely managed to beat other sides.
And secondly, there is another thread called results comparison thread that compares this season's results with last that helps, but I don't think previous seasons' results matter now. I don't think it matters if you step up a game for one that you didn't recent seasons and then drop points where you should've won.
All I'm going by is the xG and general performances, where they not looked as good as us or City and they've had the easiest fixtures of all 20 sides so far.
