Topic: Climate Emergency is already here. How much worse it gets is still up to us (?)

[Ma Vie en Rouge]

Such a contrast with how some cultures view the world. Reading the work of Robin Wall Kimmerer and other Indigenous voices was, in some way, healing and reinvigorating. We don't need more domination and control - we need to reconnect.

Edit to add: I had a conversation with a writer once. She said that what deniers had done well was to provide compelling narratives, and we'd fail to provide our own, focusing instead on facts. This video does a good job of moving the conversation forward.

Indeed!

People here will still be going on about "the economy" and "pragmatism" when the crops have all failed, the waters have risen, and the rich beauty of nature has been reduced to ruins.

I don't expect our current crop of leaders to share the wisdom of Kimmerer and others. They might at least be humble enough to try listening though.

[Bioluminescence]

Indeed!

People here will still be going on about "the economy" and "pragmatism" when the crops have all failed, the waters have risen, and the rich beauty of nature has been reduced to ruins.

I don't expect our current crop of leaders to share the wisdom of Kimmerer and others. They might at least be humble enough to try listening though.

The problem is that leaders start from an ideological position and work backwards from there, fitting everything around their ideology and vested interests. Hence their comments about "green crap" when in fact it makes economic sense to cut greenhouse gas emissions and maintain a healthy environment.

I've just seen that a French podcast I like has got a couple of episodes that sound promising, one on the role that individuals are already playing in shaping tomorrow's world. I'm off to listen to that.

[GreatEx]

Can you share the name of the podcast, please? I've been meaning to listen to some French pods to retain my language skills, having made the startling realisation it's been over 16 years since I left the country (I'm so old)

[thejbs]

Well Mars is smaller than Earth - 6 1/2 times smaller - with a diameter half the size of Earth, so that it has less gravity and less ability to hold an atmosphere. It's also about 220 million km away from the sun compared to Earths 150 million km.

Mars is actually the second smallest planet in the Solar System

I belive that Mars lost its magnetosphere because it got hit by something or cooled off. It also would struggle to keep its atmosphere as able to sustain life because it has a way more eccentric orbit than the Earth - which would lead to warmer and colder periods - not helped by the Martian year - leading to even cooler periods between warmer ones being nearer and winter/summer.

When you talk about Mars being in the Goldilocks zone - it's right on the outer edge (Venus is right on the inner edge) - so given the long winter/summer and also the erratic orbit, it's got far more issues than the Earth trying to keep a viable atmospehre - Earth is smack, bang in the middle of the Goldilocks zone and it's orbit isn't eccentric enough to push it out or in to affect us.

I could be wrong as it’s a while since I read about it, but earth is right on the edge of the ‘conservative habitable zone.’ It and Mars are like bookends for that region.  It’s in the middle of the optimistic habitable zone, where it’s more to chance.

My point remains, that life on earth is not a given. It’s a fragile thing.

[Bioluminescence]

Can you share the name of the podcast, please? I've been meaning to listen to some French pods to retain my language skills, having made the startling realisation it's been over 16 years since I left the country (I'm so old)

I know what you mean about being old - it just creeps up on you. The podcast is La Terre au Carré and it's on every weekdays. It's also available on Apple Podcasts and the France Inter or France Culture app (though the latter have ads if I remember correctly). Every podcast starts with phone messages from listeners, of varying audio quality. It's basically a science and environment podcast and they really cover a huge number of topics. There are lots of other podcasts available on France Inter - it's quite the resource.

[GreatEx]

Thanks Bio! Downloaded Wednesday's "bioregionalism" episode, now just need to find an hour of serenity so that I might be able to follow it

[Bioluminescence]

You're welcome and good luck! Would love to hear your thoughts after you've listened to it.

[Sudden Death Draft Loser]

Indeed!

People here will still be going on about "the economy" and "pragmatism" when the crops have all failed, the waters have risen, and the rich beauty of nature has been reduced to ruins.

Counting the pennies while the world burns

[Andy @ Allerton!]

I could be wrong as it’s a while since I read about it, but earth is right on the edge of the ‘conservative habitable zone.’ It and Mars are like bookends for that region.  It’s in the middle of the optimistic habitable zone, where it’s more to chance.

My point remains, that life on earth is not a given. It’s a fragile thing.

Well. The 'Goldilocks Zone' is literally based on the position of Earth in the orbit of Sol and based on the radiant energy provided by Sol.

It's the guidestick for the other calculations which is why they can predict likely other Earths based on orbital path, size (Including Super Earths) and the Star(s) those planets orbit.

I'm not an Astrophysicist, but I think those are right based on the 'Tufty First Book on Sciency-things' from School

[thejbs]

The habitable zone isn’t immutable. We could be outside of it in 1.75bn years, or before Everton win the league again. The jump from single cell life to complex life from nothing took the best part of 2 billion years or more. And animals took nearly 4 billion years to appear. We do not know if that timeline is normal or ridiculously fast by universal standards.

Anyway, my point is, while we can safely assume the planet will remain in some form until wiped out by a giant comet or swallowed by the sun, life is not a given. It’s precious and rare in the known universe.

[Andy @ Allerton!]

The habitable zone isn’t immutable. We could be outside of it in 1.75bn years, or before Everton win the league again. The jump from single cell life to complex life from nothing took the best part of 2 billion years or more. And animals took nearly 4 billion years to appear. We do not know if that timeline is normal or ridiculously fast by universal standards.

Anyway, my point is, while we can safely assume the planet will remain in some form until wiped out by a giant comet or swallowed by the sun, life is not a given. It’s precious and rare in the known universe.

Well we don't know that either. We know fuck all about the universe to be fair.

[thejbs]

Hence ‘known’ universe.

[GreatEx]

Loving the science nerdery, but the point remains that no one thinks that unbridled carbon emissions are going to render the planet incapable of supporting any life within the next few millennia, and most would realise that forces out of our control will take care of that millions or billions of years from now. It's also a given that some life forms will thrive in a warming planet, but not the ones we want. Maybe we should get the doubters on board by saying every degree of warming will lead to a hundred fold increase in the number of mosquitoes, cockroaches and rats.

[Sudden Death Draft Loser]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-68166298

[thaddeus]

Loving the science nerdery, but the point remains that no one thinks that unbridled carbon emissions are going to render the planet incapable of supporting any life within the next few millennia, and most would realise that forces out of our control will take care of that millions or billions of years from now. It's also a given that some life forms will thrive in a warming planet, but not the ones we want. Maybe we should get the doubters on board by saying every degree of warming will lead to a hundred fold increase in the number of mosquitoes, cockroaches and rats.

I think you might be onto something.  My wife refuses to return to Greece after her encounter with a flying cockroach over a decade ago.  Maybe this is the lever to stop the central heating running at 22C every time I leave the house.

[Nobby Reserve]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-68166298

"the environmental impact of such a leak is comparable to that of driving more than 717,000 petrol cars for a year."

 

[thejbs]

We really don’t deserve to inhabit this planet.

[BarryCrocker]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-68166298

[Red-Soldier]

"the environmental impact of such a leak is comparable to that of driving more than 717,000 petrol cars for a year."

 

How about the environmental impact of livestock and eating meat 

Really not wanting yet another couple of packs of supermarket sarnies for lunch yesterday, I opened my BK app for the first time in months to see if they had any offers worth taking.

Discovered Whopper Wednesday.

A Whopper (they have the plant shite for the cranks) for £1.99.

Labelling people who don't want to eat meat as cranks - how charming 

[Jiminy Cricket]

"the environmental impact of such a leak is comparable to that of driving more than 717,000 petrol cars for a year."

 

How about the environmental impact of livestock and eating meat 

Nobby's family alone is probably responsible for similar amount of methane production. I understand that Nobby includes a pork chop with his cereal in the morning, and minced meat in his mincemeat pies.

[Nobby Reserve]

Nobby's family alone is probably responsible for similar amount of methane production. I understand that Nobby includes a pork chop with his cereal in the morning, and minced meat in his mincemeat pies.

Such slander and I protest! I do NOT eat cereal.

Soon be BBQ season, though!

Yum!!!

[Nobby Reserve]

Earlier this month, it was revealed that Bitcoin mining used up to 2.3% of all the electricity generated across the entire USA in 2023 (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-01/bitcoin-miners-in-us-consume-up-to-2-3-of-nation-s-electricity). It's increased fossil fuel burning and added an upwards pressure on electricity prices.

Since China banned crypto mining in 2021 (and some other cheap-energy countries have severely curtailed it), mining in the US, and especially in Texas, has really rocketed.

Some Democrats, led by Elizabeth Warren, have for some time been trying to obtain more detailed usage data by mining companies. They found a way to do this by utilising the Energy Information Administration (EIA), which does have the legal power to order that Bitcoin mining companies  provide detailed data on their energy usage.

The Bitcoin mining companies - who have their own lobbying group - have tried to block this.

They have a lot of support amongst the Repugs, including in Congress.

On Friday night, a Texas judge granted their request for an injunction to block them having to provide this data (https://www.semafor.com/article/02/24/2024/bitcoin-miners-lose-a-bid-to-hide-their-energy-data)

A quick look into the judge who made the order reveals he's a Trump appointee from 2018, who "has been widely criticized for ignoring binding case law"

Hopefully the higher courts will overturn this and force these crypto mining shitstains to provide the information - and hopefully that triggers a huge public backlash against them.

Meanwhile, that Semafor article mentions that Ethiopia is the new boom-country for cypto-miners, taking advantage of cheap electricity and weak regulation there. Half of Ethiopians have no access to electricity.

[GreatEx]

No matter how many times bitcoin mining is explained to me, I never understand it. It's not a real commodity! This is insane!

[thejbs]

At least Bitcoin miners aren’t getting £6BN in green subsidies from the tax payer to burn down ancient forests.

Drax: UK power station still burning rare forest wood https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-68381160

This is illustrative of how the planet is fucked. When governments use a technical definition to reach zero emissions. The power plant produces 12 million tonnes of CO2 every year but is classed as emission-free.

[Nobby Reserve]

At least Bitcoin miners aren’t getting £6BN in green subsidies from the tax payer to burn down ancient forests.

Drax: UK power station still burning rare forest wood https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-68381160

This is illustrative of how the planet is fucked. When governments use a technical definition to reach zero emissions. The power plant produces 12 million tonnes of CO2 every year but is classed as emission-free.

The government deems that 12m tonnes of CO2 to be on Canada's tally, believe it or not.
 
There's an entire industry grown around finding loopholes to avoid GHG emissions sitting on the 'carbon balance sheet' of a company, organisation or country.

An offshoot from Drax is a good example. Drax produces enormous quantities of 'fly ash' from its burning of the wood pellets. For years, that ash has gone through a process called sintering, which involves subjecting the ash to very high temperatures, then pelletising the result to create a lightweight aggregate, which is mostly used in the production of lightweight concrete blocks ('breezeblocks'). It turns what would otherwise be toxic waste into a saleable and useful product. But it's a very energy-intensive process so people have been trying to find a lower-energy alternative process.
The result is called OSTO (https://www.lowcarbonmaterials.com/products) and is being aggressively marketed as a green product.
They claim is is carbon-negative - but it's nothing of the sort. It still produces a lot of carbon emissions. Their claim is pure chicanery as they effectively subtract the carbon emissions from the traditional sintering process from the carbon emissions of the new process - and declare it carbon-negative! And they're allowed to do this.
There's also concerns over the level of 'immobilisation' of pollutants and some heavy-metals (ie, stopping them leaking into the environment) in the OSTO.
Still, it enables Drax to enhance their claims of being a green energy facility.

[thaddeus]

New gas power plants needed to bolster energy supply, PM says

The UK needs to build new, gas-fired power stations to ensure the country's energy security, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said on Tuesday.

The new stations would replace existing plants, many of which are aging and will soon be retired.

But the government says the plans do not include measures for climate change-limiting carbon capture.

That could threaten a legally binding commitment to cut carbon emissions to net zero by 2050, critics say.

Mr Sunak, writing in the Daily Telegraph, said new gas power stations were needed to have a reliable and affordable back-up for days when renewables like wind and solar did not deliver.

He's probably right as gas provides over 35% of our energy but it's just another example of the wasted decade+ of Tory rule.  Our dependence on gas is about the same now as it was in 2010 and, combined with another 35% of our energy coming from oil, means we're still on the hook to fossil fuel rich nations (many of which are despotic).

It would be nice to think we could mothball the gas-fired power stations and limit gas for domestic boilers until they too can be gradually phased out.

Netherlands and Spain have a third of their energy provided by wind and solar (UK is 12%) while France have a third provided by nuclear (UK is 5%).  I'm sure there are pros and cons to both but we've ended up with decision paralysis here and not fully gone in on either.  I don't suppose there's any reason why a country couldn't pursue both aggressively instead of fossil fuels and dependence on international markets.

[Red Beret]

Full article: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/mar/14/government-delays-scheme-to-spur-take-up-of-heat-pumps-after-pressure-from-gas-lobbyists

The government has delayed by a year its scheme for spurring the take-up of heat pumps, under pressure from the gas boiler industry.

The clean heat market mechanism is intended to force heating installers to fit more low-carbon heat pumps, to meet the UK’s net zero greenhouse gas emissions target and save energy.

But the scheme – which requires companies to install a gradually increasing proportion of heat pumps compared with the number of gas boiler installations or face a financial penalty – was inaccurately described as a “boiler tax” by gas heating companies and their lobbyists. Some boiler companies put their prices up by £120, which they said was in reaction to the potential scheme, but which one government insider told the Guardian was unfair price “gouging”.

The mechanism was due to come in this April but has been delayed to April 2025, the government said on Thursday. The energy secretary, Claire Coutinho, has also asked the Competition and Markets Authority to investigate the boiler market.

Reforms to the boiler upgrade scheme also announced on Thursday will mean households no longer need to upgrade their insulation to take advantage of government heat pump grants. Removing the requirement for cavity wall and loft insulation should save consumers about £2,500 on a heat pump installation, for which the government is offering a £7,500 grant.

Heat pumps can cost up to £14,000, but cheaper models are rapidly coming on to the market. Radiators generally run at lower temperatures with heat pumps than with boilers, so homeowners are encouraged to have insulation fitted too, which also reduces emissions, but increases the cost of installation.

[Mister Flip Flop]

Ho hum, another month, another record. Hottest February on record, CO2 emissions up YoY, 1.5C 'limit' to be breached... Just another year on this overheated and overheating planet. Carry on nothing too see here....

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-february-2024-being-globally-the-warmest-on-record/

[butchersdog]

Why do people say 'the planet' when talking about the issues of climate change?

The planet and life overall is fine. We live in a goldilocks zone and once mankind has been dead and gone, the planet can survive anything - even if it got hit by something like Mars again, the past shows us that even being ripped to pieces like that had no effect on current life or 'the planet'

It should be posed as 'saving humanity' - although I think even parts of humanity will easily survive - it's just the other x billion that won't.

Not an expert by any means, but is there not a risk that we hit a runaway greenhouse effect and the planet ends up similar to Venus? Obviously not in every way given difference in mass etc, but enough to, over a long time, make life on Earth permanently extinct? Be interested if any of our resident physics buffs can confirm or debunk. If it’s bollocks, be kind please! :-)

[Jiminy Cricket]

Not an expert by any means, but is there not a risk that we hit a runaway greenhouse effect and the planet ends up similar to Venus? Obviously not in every way given difference in mass etc, but enough to, over a long time, make life on Earth permanently extinct? Be interested if any of our resident physics buffs can confirm or debunk. If it’s bollocks, be kind please! :-)

From my very limited reading on this, the idea is usually poo-pooed. The problem, though, is that climate models are just that: models. There are huge unknowns, else the models would perform far more reliably. We do not properly understand (or even know of) all the potential positive feedback loops.

I think what is more certain is that such loops would take a long time to kill the planet. But neither would we know when we've entered into such a downward spiral, let alone, what to do get out of it.

Anyway. There is surely a non-zero risk of this occurring.

[thejbs]

SNP berated by Scottish Tories for missing 2030 climate goal, even though it was uk-wide Tory policy that have caused this failure. Interestingly, Scotland is the only part of the uk that can cover its energy needs with renewables. They had a 13% surplus in 2022. UK total is around 40%.

[thejbs]

We’ll never do anything about climate change as long as this warming planet is profitable. I’ve recently noticed a spate of machines and wearables focused on cooling you down.

https://www.sony.co.uk/store/p/rnpk5tw.ww

[Red-Soldier]

We’ll never do anything about climate change as long as this warming planet is profitable. I’ve recently noticed a spate of machines and wearables focused on cooling you down.

https://www.sony.co.uk/store/p/rnpk5tw.ww

Interesting.  I'm guessing it's battery operated.  Says it both cools and warms.

[Egyptian36]

Crazy what happened at Dubai. One year worth of rain in one day only. heaviest rainfall in 75 years.

[GreatEx]

115 millimetres, that is indeed quite a lot in one day