i still refuse to believe they'd do it, my brain will not accept that they could be that stupid
Michael Pachter said something like 95% of Xbox users are on Live, and Microsoft can afford to lose that 5%.
Also remember the 360 was hacked to shit, Microsoft banned over a million accounts a few years back - and it continued to be hacked after. Maybe they feel always on DRM is the only way to prevent that, so it's worth losing a few customers to make sure everyone's playing games legitimately. If I went out and told the average 360 user about always-online meant, I don't think any would care - that's Microsoft's core audience right there.
Then you look at Windows 8, everyone said they had no interest in using a touch-screen interface on their personal computers. They went ahead and released it with a compulsory touch-screen setup, then went and removed the start bar that was in the BETA. Windows 8 is now stagnating in sales.
They really could be this stupid.
I personally don't think they will be though