Topic: UK GE and Local Elections, plus polls, and policy.

[Fromola]

How the fuck has the BNP beat lib dem and green in those two places? Are they racist shitholes?

There was little point voting Lib Dem or Green because they were never going to win the seat. You'd have had more tactical voting to Labour.

Reform voters at the least wanted to give the Tories a kicking (but are right wing and wouldn't vote for the above).

The thing with the Right (including the whole Conservative vote) is they're less than half of the electorate (maybe 45%), so the Tories can't afford to lose 10% of it it in every seat, or to have the vote split. Labour are used to splitting a vote with Lib Dems (and SNP in Scotland).

[Nobby Reserve]

There's probably cross over between the NIMBY conservationist don't build on the green belt crowd, and the anti-immigrant crowd. They don't want the country to have to build over the green belt to house all these people.

Is that such a bad thing?

[Lusty]

How do you go from Reform to The Green Party?

We were discussing the whole horseshoe thing yesterday.  A lot of cranks have ended up in the Green Party.

I'm actually more surprised people are going from Lib Dem to Reform, seems more of a stretch to go from the centre to the extremes than it does to go from one extreme to the other.

[Elmo!]

Is that such a bad thing?

In an ideal world of course it would be left, but there's conflicting priorities and IMO the housing crisis is more important than saving golf courses and maintaining the property prices of those who live in the Green belt.

[Nobby Reserve]

The thing with the Right (including the whole Conservative vote) is they're less than half of the electorate (maybe 45%), so the Tories can't afford to lose 10% of it it in every seat, or to have the vote split. Labour are used to splitting a vote with Lib Dems (and SNP in Scotland).

The irony of this is that Cameron and his advisors knew this back before the 2015 GE, when it was UKIP snapping at their heels, with a couple of Tory MP's defecting and others threatening to do the same.

To save the Tory Party splitting, Cameron threw the entire country under the bus by promising a Referendum to try to cut the legs from the UKIP threat to the Tory vote.

The utter c*nt.

But now we have that abject lesson that you can't defeat a loudmouthed bully by appeasement. Even though the Tory Party itself has lurched to the right, especially on social/cultural issues, and has some real far-right zealots in its Parliamentary ranks, it's still losing votes on the right to Reform, who are just a rebranded UKIP.

[Elmo!]

Pretty sure that's not the aim of the green belt.  It's not in any of the literature I've read, anyway.

Not the stated aim, no.

[Fromola]

The irony of this is that Cameron and his advisors knew this back before the 2015 GE, when it was UKIP snapping at their heels, with a couple of Tory MP's defecting and others threatening to do the same.

To save the Tory Party splitting, Cameron threw the entire country under the bus by promising a Referendum to try to cut the legs from the UKIP threat to the Tory vote.

The utter c*nt.

But now we have that abject lesson that you can't defeat a loudmouthed bully by appeasement. Even though the Tory Party itself has lurched to the right, especially on social/cultural issues, and has some real far-right zealots in its Parliamentary ranks, it's still losing votes on the right to Reform, who are just a rebranded UKIP.

Yeah, I think UKIP got more than 10% of the vote in 2015, but Cameron held the Tory vote just enough by promising the referendum and the 'coalition of chaos' attack line over Labour/SNP saw them through as well. Had SNP won independence in 2014 the result might have been different. Key also was UKIP weren't just taking off the Tories they were taking Labour votes as well, particularly in red wall seats. Working class Labour voters were a key demographic for Brexit.

Plus Ed Milliband was weak and easy to attack. If his brother (who i'm no fan of) had won the leadership I doubt the Tories win that election. Cameron's high stakes gamble (to defeat a political lightweight) cost the country dear.

[Red Beret]

Cameron gave the Kippers what they wanted, but it hasn't saved his party. He helped destroy the country and we've continued to suffer as the Tory Party writhed and spasmed through its deatth throes.

Cnut.

[Jiminy Cricket]

Interesting data on where the Reform vote would go in their absence. Not a monolithic alt-Tory block.



https://twitter.com/LukeTryl/status/1758328944640602403

The 'I would not vote' faction is important. For whom did they vote in the last GE?

[Red-Soldier]

Not the stated aim, no.

We need joined up thinking, when nit comes to planning and house building.  Protecting the green belt, is not about nimbyism. The UK is one of the most nature depleted countries in the world.

[Nobby Reserve]

In an ideal world of course it would be left, but there's conflicting priorities and IMO the housing crisis is more important than saving golf courses and maintaining the property prices of those who live in the Green belt.

Come on, now, that's just silly. The greenbelt was created for reasons that still apply today. And most greenbelt that gets the go-ahead for development is agricultural anyway (the loss of which means we need to import even more food, with the accompanying food miles implications)

The 'Housing Crisis' isn't solely about the number of dwellings that there are in the UK. The main problem is the unaffordability of housing (to buy or to rent) driven by a demand for housing that is massively swelled by those buying property as an investment to rent out. It's this that needs addressing - and especially the selling to overseas investors.

There's a lot of brownfield sites (and 'landbanked' land) but it's generally unattractive to private developers because there's remedial work required and they're generally not in leafy countryside where they can charge a premium and hike their margins.

Giving greedy bastard private developers carte blanche to concrete over greenbelt is wrong on so many levels, and will do little to address the fundamental issues of affordability (the tactic of just trying to add more and more supply into the market to drive down prices has failed for years).

The way to tackle the housing crisis is a massive programme of social housing (at least 250k a year, ideally more). Build on brownfield sites - even confiscate land 'banked' by developers' to build on. Rent them out at a price that's non-profit to subvert the private rental market to bring down rental prices generally. That in turn will lead to a lot of private landlords selling-up, which in turn will gradually lower/stabilise house sale prices.

[Elmo!]

Come on, now, that's just silly. The greenbelt was created for reasons that still apply today. And most greenbelt that gets the go-ahead for development is agricultural anyway (the loss of which means we need to import even more food, with the accompanying food miles implications)

The 'Housing Crisis' isn't solely about the number of dwellings that there are in the UK. The main problem is the unaffordability of housing (to buy or to rent) driven by a demand for housing that is massively swelled by those buying property as an investment to rent out. It's this that needs addressing - and especially the selling to overseas investors.

There's a lot of brownfield sites (and 'landbanked' land) but it's generally unattractive to private developers because there's remedial work required and they're generally not in leafy countryside where they can charge a premium and hike their margins.

Giving greedy bastard private developers carte blanche to concrete over greenbelt is wrong on so many levels, and will do little to address the fundamental issues of affordability (the tactic of just trying to add more and more supply into the market to drive down prices has failed for years).

The way to tackle the housing crisis is a massive programme of social housing (at least 250k a year, ideally more). Build on brownfield sites - even confiscate land 'banked' by developers' to build on. Rent them out at a price that's non-profit to subvert the private rental market to bring down rental prices generally. That in turn will lead to a lot of private landlords selling-up, which in turn will gradually lower/stabilise house sale prices.

While this is a problem, it certainly isn't the only problem, and in fact rented properties on average house more people than privately owned so if more people owned and less rented there would be a need for even more housing. There just isn't enough housing for everyone.

I'm just not convinced this brownfield sites idea would work in reality and in the timeframe and scale needed.

i'm certainly not saying give anyone carte blanche to do what they want. Just do what they want to build over golf courses (would be great if they started with Trumps up here). 

[Fortneef]

Reform are going to absolutely destroy the Tories at the GE. They'll end up getting ~8% of the votes, but the vast, vast majority of those voters are former tories aged 50+.  You know, the blue rinse brigade from Tunbridge Wells who vote every single time. They're hammering huge holes in blue wall seats, never mind the red wall ones.

Unfair on Tunbridge Wells, places like that have a big tranche of historically tory voters who are aghast at Brexit and the culture wars and have deserted the Tories.

[PatriotScouser]

How do you go from Reform to The Green Party?

Extremely easily when you think of politics in left to right wing not in a a straight line but in a circle. Therefore those on the far left and far right and centre left and centre right are more aligned than you would think.

[Nobby Reserve]

Extremely easily when you think of politics in left to right wing not in a a straight line but in a circle. Therefore those on the far left and far right and centre left and centre right are more aligned than you would think.

I've always thought the idea that the far-left and far-right are closely aligned is an absolute crock of shite. It's a lazy trope that is based on the actions of a few megalomaniac dictators.

[Indomitable_Carp]

I've always thought the idea that the far-left and far-right are closely aligned is an absolute crock of shite. It's a lazy trope that is based on the actions of a few megalomaniac dictators.

When you see "Cosmic Scousers" and other Hippyish-alternative types align with Far-Right conspiracy theorists it starts to make sense. Likewise when you see left-wingers trying to excuse Putin's fascist-dictatorship and the invasion of Ukraine, another sadly common theme.

[Bobsackamano]

I've always thought the idea that the far-left and far-right are closely aligned is an absolute crock of shite. It's a lazy trope that is based on the actions of a few megalomaniac dictators.

Not really, both the far left and the far right are driven by the emotions of bitterness and hate. They just have different targets of their hate, although Jews are common targets of both. The megalomaniac dictators you speak of tend to be able to manipulate their supporters on the left and right to kill lots of people the, thankfully few times, they gain power because of the bitterness and hate and the fact that the supporters are generally a bit thick as well.

[Draex]

Welcome to Reform...



Can't put my finger on why they vote for Reform..

[Lusty]

Welcome to Reform...



Can't put my finger on why they vote for Reform..

That's my former MP there front and centre 

[whtwht]

Welcome to Reform...



Can't put my finger on why they vote for Reform..

A great collection of Xenophobic muppets..

[Red Beret]

They all look ready to pop off in 12 months or less.

[killer-heels]

They all look ready to pop off in 12 months or less.

Hopefully.

[lobsterboy]

I'd love to see that. Millions marching through the streets and putting Rishi's head on a fucking spike.

You'd only need a cocktail stick for that little midget rat fucks head

[mattD]

Lovely stuff. Saw that lanky streak of piss Lord Snooty playing down the Kingswood result overnight as not that bad for the Tories. Prick. Hopefully his seat goes too in the not too distant future.

He must have been elected in a constituency full of dumb fuck toffs. They're so far beyond reason and intelligence that he's bound to get in again.

[Red Beret]

Good Wikipedia summary of the upcoming election. Treat it as an FAQ

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election#

The election can't be called later than December 17th, and can't be held later than January 28th. Currently, there are 57 Tory MPs slated to retire at the upcoming election.

From this, we can see that the current Tory majority is 55 - down from 80 in 2019.

https://members.parliament.uk/parties/Commons

[CheshireDave]

He must have been elected in a constituency full of dumb fuck toffs. They're so far beyond reason and intelligence that he's bound to get in again.

Very rural, very white and very low social housing tenancy. Labour have run the Conservatives somewhat close on a few occasions. The the seat will be subject to major boundary changes for the next election though which you can assume was done to improve the chances of it staying Conservative.

[Ray K]

@lewis_goodall
Blackpool South MP Scott Benton loses appeal against 35 day suspension.

Means there will likely be a recall petition in his seat, and another by-election for Rishi Sunak.

Unlike many of the other by elections we’ve seen BlackpoolS is a genuine marginal- Maj 3690.

Should be easiest of Lab wins in one of the most deprived seats in the country. Eyes will be on just how low the Tory vote falls and whether Reform can exceed expectations (they didn’t in Wborough).

Labour’s candidate (unlike in Rochdale) already in place, it’s @ChrisPWebb

[Statto Red]

Good Wikipedia summary of the upcoming election. Treat it as an FAQ

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election#

The election can't be called later than December 17th, and can't be held later than January 28th. Currently, there are 57 Tory MPs slated to retire at the upcoming election.

From this, we can see that the current Tory majority is 55 - down from 80 in 2019.

https://members.parliament.uk/parties/Commons

Majority soon to get fewer with Blackpool South coming up in a few months, Labour should win easily but be fun to see how the Tory vote bottoms out, & if they can keep their deposit.

[Red Beret]

Let's see how Reform fare in a Tory-Lab marginal.

[Wabaloolah]

Good Wikipedia summary of the upcoming election. Treat it as an FAQ

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election#

The election can't be called later than December 17th, and can't be held later than January 28th. Currently, there are 57 Tory MPs slated to retire at the upcoming election.

From this, we can see that the current Tory majority is 55 - down from 80 in 2019.

https://members.parliament.uk/parties/Commons

the 18 independents are former members of the mainstream parties like Corbyn and Twat Hancock and that ultra twat Andrew Bridgen

You would expect the likes of Hancock to vote with the Tories in any potential banana skin votes

[Robinred]

The threat of A.I is very real with an election close:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/19/the-guardian-view-on-political-deepfakes-voters-cant-believe-their-lying-eyes?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

[Red Beret]

the 18 independents are former members of the mainstream parties like Corbyn and Twat Hancock and that ultra twat Andrew Bridgen

You would expect the likes of Hancock to vote with the Tories in any potential banana skin votes

The problem for Sunak is the number of MPs already out for his blood. About the only vote you can guarantee they'll all back him over is a Confidence Vote.

[Wabaloolah]

The problem for Sunak is the number of MPs already out for his blood. About the only vote you can guarantee they'll all back him over is a Confidence Vote.

yes there is that but the only way to get them out on terms other than his own is in a confidence vote and their majority is too large for that to happen.

Still the clock is very much ticking...

[Red Beret]

yes there is that but the only way to get them out on terms other than his own is in a confidence vote and their majority is too large for that to happen.

Still the clock is very much ticking...

Not exactly. The Tories split hairs by ousting their leader - basically saying they have every confidence in themselves to govern, just not in the Prime Minister to do it. 

As I said, they have a majority of 55, but 57 Tories are standing down at the next election. That's more than enough MPs - even accounting for the loyalist independents you mentioned - and these are people who currently have nothing to lose. They could bring down the government if they wanted - but they're too busy grifting.

[filopastry]

Not exactly. The Tories split hairs by ousting their leader - basically saying they have every confidence in themselves to govern, just not in the Prime Minister to do it. 

As I said, they have a majority of 55, but 57 Tories are standing down at the next election. That's more than enough MPs - even accounting for the loyalist independents you mentioned - and these are people who currently have nothing to lose. They could bring down the government if they wanted - but they're too busy grifting.

And who would want the Tory leadership pre-election?

They seem happy enough to keep undermining him, blame him for the election defeat and then let the economic ultras battle it out with the authoritarian ultras for the leadership afterwards.

Whoever ends up with their leadership next will be a complete loon

[Red Beret]

And who would want the Tory leadership pre-election?

They seem happy enough to keep undermining him, blame him for the election defeat and then let the economic ultras battle it out with the authoritarian ultras for the leadership afterwards.

To clarify:

All I was saying is that the only vote Sunak would be guaranteed to have the backing of his own MPs in would be if someone tabled a Vote of No Confidence in the government, because they're all a gang of shameless grifters trying to wring every last drop out of the country before the election. You could have Mister Blobby as PM and the Tories would never vote to bring the government down. In that context, Sunak is irrelevant.

There's enough retiring Tory MPs - who you would think no longer have a stake in the game - to bring the government down in such a vote, but they won't. As I said, a majority of 55 versus 57 Tories standing down.  They would, however, happily vote to bin off Sunak and replace him with someone else.

As you say, who would want the job? There seems to be a threat to remove Sunak, but I don't think the Tories actually have a clue themselves what they would do after that.

[filopastry]

To clarify:

All I was saying is that the only vote Sunak would be guaranteed to have the backing of his own MPs in would be if someone tabled a Vote of No Confidence in the government, because they're all a gang of shameless grifters trying to wring every last drop out of the country before the election. You could have Mister Blobby as PM and the Tories would never vote to bring the government down. In that context, Sunak is irrelevant.

There's enough retiring Tory MPs - who you would think no longer have a stake in the game - to bring the government down in such a vote, but they won't. As I said, a majority of 55 versus 57 Tories standing down.  They would, however, happily vote to bin off Sunak and replace him with someone else.

As you say, who would want the job? There seems to be a threat to remove Sunak, but I don't think the Tories actually have a clue themselves what they would do after that.

I think even the leavers after the next election would still like to ride the gravy train a bit longer!

If the polling stays this bad its hard to see an election coming around anytime soon

[Wabaloolah]

To clarify:

All I was saying is that the only vote Sunak would be guaranteed to have the backing of his own MPs in would be if someone tabled a Vote of No Confidence in the government, because they're all a gang of shameless grifters trying to wring every last drop out of the country before the election. You could have Mister Blobby as PM and the Tories would never vote to bring the government down. In that context, Sunak is irrelevant.

There's enough retiring Tory MPs - who you would think no longer have a stake in the game - to bring the government down in such a vote, but they won't. As I said, a majority of 55 versus 57 Tories standing down.  They would, however, happily vote to bin off Sunak and replace him with someone else.

As you say, who would want the job? There seems to be a threat to remove Sunak, but I don't think the Tories actually have a clue themselves what they would do after that.

I'm not 100% certain of the Maths and it is skewed a bit due to Sinn Fein not taking their seats but I don't think it even needs 55 voting them down in a Vote of Confidence, think around half the number would do the trick.

As you say though it's never going to happen as the MPs that are standing down want to bleed the taxpayers dry for a while longer

[Red Beret]

I'm not 100% certain of the Maths and it is skewed a bit due to Sinn Fein not taking their seats but I don't think it even needs 55 voting them down in a Vote of Confidence, think around half the number would do the trick.

As you say though it's never going to happen as the MPs that are standing down want to bleed the taxpayers dry for a while longer

You are correct. The 55 majority reported takes into account MPs who don't take their seats, and also includes the Speaker. And yes, you'd only need to flip around half of those to bring the government down. It's a sign of their hypocrisy. They would stab Sunak in the back in a second if they thought it would do them any good, but would never have the conscience to end the farce before they have to.

[jambutty]

Seems more daunting prospects for Cons in Parliament's future.