Topic: The Run Home and CL Qualification

[Number 7]

Keep in mind that United, Spurs and Chelsea are going to have games in hand over us because of the FA Cup. It is imperative we win all our games at least up until that weekend. When other teams have games in hand over us I’d love to already have the points in the bank. More pressure on them.

[alvaro]

Those games in hand will be a nightmare for us if the relegation battle is done and dusted ( just like it happened last year when Arsenal won their last 5 games). If the relegation battle is still tight then we will greatly benefit of the fixture congestion of our oppponents. Its also good for us if the fight for 7th is close like it looks it will be.

[MNAA]

Those games in hand will be a nightmare for us if the relegation battle is done and dusted ( just like it happened last year when Arsenal won their last 5 games). If the relegation battle is still tight then we will greatly benefit of the fixture congestion of our oppponents. Its also good for us if the fight for 7th is close like it looks it will be.

On current rate, relegation battle will go down to the wire. Only West Brom seems to be running out of pace. Even Everton is not safe

[rkgriffin]

Updated with Current points.

Remaining games in EPL vs top 8 teams:

United 59 - Liverpool, City, Arsenal

Liverpool 57 - United, Chelsea

Spurs 55 - Chelsea, City, Leicester

Chelsea 53 - City, Burnley, Spurs, Liverpool

Arsenal 45 - City, Leicester, United, Burnley

Hopefully City get knocked out next round so they are pissed off and focus on getting as many points as possible in the league.

[kcbworth]

Can see City dropping more points than us... not likely to be close to being caught but it will create a narrative

[CraigDS]

Those games in hand will be a nightmare for us if the relegation battle is done and dusted ( just like it happened last year when Arsenal won their last 5 games). If the relegation battle is still tight then we will greatly benefit of the fixture congestion of our oppponents. Its also good for us if the fight for 7th is close like it looks it will be.

Always find it can go the other way too, where players suddenly pick up form playing to put themselves in the shop window and the lack of pressure sees teams play a little more.

[Geppvindh's]

I can't believe I am saying this, what with the other candidates being United and Chelsea, but I would love it if Spurs dropped out of the top 4. Their smugness and blatant deceit is really annoying, and one season out of the top 4 would send the likes of Kane, Alli, Aldeweireld and possibly even Pocchetino looking for a way out.

[CraigDS]

I can't believe I am saying this, what with the other candidates being United and Chelsea, but I would love it if Spurs dropped out of the top 4. Their smugness and blatant deceit is really annoying, and one season out of the top 4 would send the likes of Kane, Alli, Aldeweireld and possibly even Pocchetino looking for a way out.

Yeah there would be plenty of benefits to Spurs having a season out of the CL. Not least a £40m+ hit on their finances, at a time where they are funding a £800m+ stadium build and needing to fund multiple new contracts to keep their star players/manager, would hit them pretty hard. United and Chelsea could cope with a year out and still attract/pay for their targets regardless.

[Roger Federer]

Looking at the remaing schedule for us and Chelsea it’s difficult to see them catching us. We have five very winnable home games, and 2 decent aways, plus Everton, Chelsea and United. It wouldn’t be anything out of the ordinary if we got 21 points from our fixtures, if that happens Chelsea would need 26 to go above us. With a more difficult schedule and in worse form I wouldn’t bet on them doing it. Of course anything can happen, but it does look good right now.

[CraigDS]

City have a chance to really put the nail in the coffin for Arsenal (12pts off) and not far off for Chelsea (7pts off) if they can win their next two games and we beat Newcastle.

[DanA]

That Porto 5-0 was a godsend. It allows us to rest up before Man Utd and continue playing full pace on two fronts.

I’d give Mane, Firmino and Salah the night off for the second leg, or at least have then on the bench.

[redintweed]

I just think there will be many twists and turns before the end of the season, both for us and the others chasing top 4. Just look at our Swansea result. There will be upsets galore as teams fight relegation. Many of the relegation fighting teams will be more than happy to get a point against top 6 opponents. The buses will well and truely be parked, and not just by Mourinho.

I would ideally like to finish top 3 just so we can’t be bumped out of the Champions League by a team winning it and failing to qualify (please correct me if I’m wrong on this). On the other hand by finishing 3rd we don’t have to play a banana skin qualifier. I know we waltzed past Hoffenheim this season but in a World Cup year when players are coming back late to pre season, it would be nice to not have to worry about 2 possibly difficult games just to get to the group stage.

The ball is in our court. Just keep winning and everything takes care of itself. I feel we are a decent shout for going a long way in this seasons ECL. I am fairly sure that no team will want to draw us in the quarters. I also confident we can beat even the Real Madrids and Bayern Munichs etc over two legs. I know this is off topic, but I dream of meeting Barca in the Final and watching Phil squirm as we wipe the floor with them. Ahhh dreams....

[killer-heels]

I just think there will be many twists and turns before the end of the season, both for us and the others chasing top 4. Just look at our Swansea result. There will be upsets galore as teams fight relegation. Many of the relegation fighting teams will be more than happy to get a point against top 6 opponents. The buses will well and truely be parked, and not just by Mourinho.

I would ideally like to finish top 3 just so we can’t be bumped out of the Champions League by a team winning it and failing to qualify (please correct me if I’m wrong on this). On the other hand by finishing 3rd we don’t have to play a banana skin qualifier. I know we waltzed past Hoffenheim this season but in a World Cup year when players are coming back late to pre season, it would be nice to not have to worry about 2 possibly difficult games just to get to the group stage.

The ball is in our court. Just keep winning and everything takes care of itself. I feel we are a decent shout for going a long way in this seasons ECL. I am fairly sure that no team will want to draw us in the quarters. I also confident we can beat even the Real Madrids and Bayern Munichs etc over two legs. I know this is off topic, but I dream of meeting Barca in the Final and watching Phil squirm as we wipe the floor with them. Ahhh dreams....

We wont face a qualifier whatever position in the top four we finish.

[Buck Pete]

City have a chance to really put the nail in the coffin for Arsenal (12pts off) and not far off for Chelsea (7pts off) if they can win their next two games and we beat Newcastle.

Part of me wants Arsenal to beat City on Thursday so Pep gets angry and Chelsea feel the backlash on Sunday.

City taking points off Chelsea is far more important to us at the moment.

Ideally they will beat both like

[redintweed]

We wont face a qualifier whatever position in the top four we finish.

Right you are. Rule changes for the next three seasons. Apologies.

Still be great to finish above United though and our game against them will be pivotal.

[Red Viper]

City have a chance to really put the nail in the coffin for Arsenal (12pts off) and not far off for Chelsea (7pts off) if they can win their next two games and we beat Newcastle.

Think Arsenal are dead and buried anyway now. Would be really nice of City to smash Chelsea 4-0 though.

[Nick110581]

Think Arsenal are dead and buried anyway now. Would be really nice of City to smash Chelsea 4-0 though.

It’s key we just do our job versus Newcastle.

City beating them would mean a seven point gap with 9 to play. That is massive especially as they have Spurs too and then us at end of season.

But there will be shocks and twists.

Probably need another 20 from 30 to get top 4.

[BassTunedToRed]

Think Arsenal are dead and buried anyway now.

Definitely. With 76 points as a target (as it has always secured top four in the past), Arsenal need 10 wins and a draw from their last 11 to get there. Not going to happen.

[Suareznumber7]

City have a chance to really put the nail in the coffin for Arsenal (12pts off) and not far off for Chelsea (7pts off) if they can win their next two games and we beat Newcastle.

Arsenal is irrelevant in the talk for top 4.  They’ve been out of it for a while now.  A City win against Chelsea and they’ll be on the brink of falling out. 

[Suareznumber7]

That Porto 5-0 was a godsend. It allows us to rest up before Man Utd and continue playing full pace on two fronts.

I’d give Mane, Firmino and Salah the night off for the second leg, or at least have then on the bench.

I’ll be pretty surprised if Klopp rotates that much for the Porto match.  He may rotate some but I just can’t see him not playing at least two of those three.

[AlphaDelta]

I’ll be pretty surprised if Klopp rotates that much for the Porto match.  He may rotate some but I just can’t see him not playing at least two of those three.

Agreed, on paper it makes sense to drop the front three, but I think Klopp will respect Porto and respect the CL more.

[JackWard33]

Agreed, on paper it makes sense to drop the front three, but I think Klopp will respect Porto and respect the CL more.

What does that mean? Honestly I'm not sure what you're driving at. We can pick any players registered for the competition - there's no respect clause?!

[redk84]

So before the weekend we were 2 points clear of 5th and now we're 4 points clear of 5th.

That is really good at this stage of the season and hopefully we can expand that gap over the next few weeks. I actually agree with what somebody above said ^ iro hoping Spurs finishing outside the top 4 as it will hurt them more.

Any of the teams that are not us missing out on CL is a good thing though, we just gotta make sure we're in it.

Win the games we should win and we'll be ok

[Suareznumber7]

What does that mean? Honestly I'm not sure what you're driving at. We can pick any players registered for the competition - there's no respect clause?!

I think Klopp would see not playing the front three as sending a message to the rest of the team that the tie is over and done so they don’t have to play as hard or as well as they have been. 

It’s a tricky situation for a manager as you want to give your best players some rest but don’t want to do anything that will stop the momentum especially when we are playing so well and have incredibly important games coming up. 

[Phil M]

We have Geordies at home. Spurs have Huddersfield at Wembley.

City play Chelsea and Utd are away to Palace.

We'll be heavy favourites to win as will Spurs.

Chelsea on paper / current form don't beat City away but maybe get a point and although Palace frustrated Spurs I'm not counting on them to do us any favours.

So possibly us and Spurs open a bigger gap to Chelsea and we remain 2 behind the mancs with us going to them next match.

[Barefoot Doctor]

Arsenal is irrelevant in the talk for top 4.  They’ve been out of it for a while now.  A City win against Chelsea and they’ll be on the brink of falling out. 

Yeah, losing to City on Thursday would probably end it for them. Would mean they could only get a maximum of 75 points - which is what they got last year when they missed out on CL to us. So even if they won their remaining ten games, they'd still not be guaranteed Champions League!

It'll be clear to Wenger that the Europa League is their only realistic route to the Champions League next season. They'll go all out to win that, and much like United last year and us the season before, that'll affect their league results. I'd be surprised if Arsenal do better than 65-68 points, to be honest.

[Suareznumber7]

Yeah, losing to City on Thursday would probably end it for them. Would mean they could only get a maximum of 75 points - which is what they got last year when they missed out on CL to us. So even if they won their remaining ten games, they'd still not be guaranteed Champions League!

It'll be clear to Wenger that the Europa League is their only realistic route to the Champions League next season. They'll go all out to win that, and much like United last year and us the season before, that'll affect their league results. I'd be surprised if Arsenal do better than 65-68 points, to be honest.

They are already 10 points behind 4th.  They’re done regardless of whether they win or lose on Thursday. 

[Jokerfish]

Fully expect us to get at least 25 points from our last 10 games

[Trendisnotdestiny]

That Porto 5-0 was a godsend. It allows us to rest up before Man Utd and continue playing full pace on two fronts.

I’d give Mane, Firmino and Salah the night off for the second leg, or at least have then on the bench.

DanA, I hope all is well with you.  Just wanted to invite you to the Flagpole/Betting/Draft Tower thread sometime.

A man with your keen mind might enjoy the entertainment of drafting all-time (world and LFC) teams for fun.  New drafts are being considered all the time, if you have the time and interest.

YNWA

[Djozer]

I’ll be pretty surprised if Klopp rotates that much for the Porto match.  He may rotate some but I just can’t see him not playing at least two of those three.

I mean no offence, but I hope you're dead wrong here. We've got the Utd match coming up a few days after, and Salah and Firmino have player a lot of minutes this season, the most in our team by far. So as to somewhat mitigate the effects of cumulative fatigue, I'd really like to see them at least be rested, and preferably a few other players.

If we can't rest players when we're 5 up in a two legged tie, then when can we rest them? It might also help Ings, Solanke and others to get a few minutes under their belts in case we need them further down the line.

[JackWard33]

I think Klopp would see not playing the front three as sending a message to the rest of the team that the tie is over and done so they don’t have to play as hard or as well as they have been. 

It’s a tricky situation for a manager as you want to give your best players some rest but don’t want to do anything that will stop the momentum especially when we are playing so well and have incredibly important games coming up. 

It is over and done

[newterp]

I always like when we flip to "maximum points achievable" - gets more real for some reason

[MinnyRed]

That Porto 5-0 was a godsend. It allows us to rest up before Man Utd and continue playing full pace on two fronts.

I’d give Mane, Firmino and Salah the night off for the second leg, or at least have then on the bench.

No way Klopp does this. I think he’ll play a full squad. Maybe rest one of Phil or Salah but not both. He’ll rotate the back (maybe Gomez and Moreno will play). But no way he goes out there with a league cup in November squad.

[JasonF]

No way Klopp does this. I think he’ll play a full squad. Maybe rest one of Phil or Salah but not both. He’ll rotate the back (maybe Gomez and Moreno will play). But no way he goes out there with a league cup in November squad.

I've got some bad news for you mate, we sold Phil in January.

[Djozer]

No way Klopp does this. I think he’ll play a full squad. Maybe rest one of Phil or Salah but not both. He’ll rotate the back (maybe Gomez and Moreno will play). But no way he goes out there with a league cup in November squad.

You reckon? I think it would be madness not to rest at least a couple of the front three.  Given how tight the race for top four looks like it'll be, we probably need them for almost every league game if possible, and however many remaining Cl games we have after Porto. Why play them and risk injury in a game that's pretty much all but won? Especially when we've got the mancs a few day later.

[JackWard33]

You reckon? I think it would be madness not to rest at least a couple of the front three.  Given how tight the race for top four looks like it'll be, we probably need them for almost every league game if possible, and however many remaining Cl games we have after Porto. Why play them and risk injury in a game that's pretty much all but won? Especially when we've got the mancs a few day later.

You can play the counter factual... imagine he plays all 3 and one of them gets an injury that puts him out for the year - there would be 20 pages of vitriol on here by the nights end.
And you could argue rightly so... we're 5 (FIVE) away goals up... you could pick our weakest team from our registered CL squad and we'd still go through
There's no argument for playing any vital players in the Porto home leg - the front 3 and VVD should be nowhere near the starting line up.

[sminp]

You reckon? I think it would be madness not to rest at least a couple of the front three.  Given how tight the race for top four looks like it'll be, we probably need them for almost every league game if possible, and however many remaining Cl games we have after Porto. Why play them and risk injury in a game that's pretty much all but won? Especially when we've got the mancs a few day later.

I think Salah will be on the bench and maybe Firmino, reckon Mane will play though. Can see at least one of Solanke or Ings starting, hopefully Woodburn will be involved too.

[Djozer]

You can play the counter factual... imagine he plays all 3 and one of them gets an injury that puts him out for the year - there would be 20 pages of vitriol on here by the nights end.
And you could argue rightly so... we're 5 (FIVE) away goals up... you could pick our weakest team from our registered CL squad and we'd still go through
There's no argument for playing any vital players in the Porto home leg - the front 3 and VVD should be nowhere near the starting line up.

Yup, this is how I see it too. Rest all four, preferably, but Bobby and Salah at the very least. Hopefully Klopp is of a similar mindset. Genuinely can't understand why people would want to see a near full strength team out against Porto.

If we were comfortably assured of a top four place then sure, but we're really not despite what the oddsmakers are saying and Firmino and Salah - probably our two most important players - have played a hell of a lot of minutes already this season. Rest them whenever possible, I reckon.

[newterp]

Klopp will rotate heavily.

He really could play ----- Migs-Matip-Klavan-Clyne-Moreno-Ox-Can-Gini-Ings-Solanke-Woodburn

[JackWard33]

Yup, this is how I see it too. Rest all four, preferably, but Bobby and Salah at the very least. Hopefully Klopp is of a similar mindset. Genuinely can't understand why people would want to see a near full strength team out against Porto.

If we were comfortably assured of a top four place then sure, but we're really not despite what the oddsmakers are saying and Firmino and Salah - probably our two most important players - have played a hell of a lot of minutes already this season. Rest them whenever possible, I reckon.

Not only that we need some of the bench players to get minutes.
If we need a game changing and/or someone does pick up an injury its not reasonable to expect Solanke, Moreno (or whoever) to come in and be up to speed with how this team is playing.
Really the 1st leg result is a god send. 

(btw the way I'd still expect a team with 9 changes from our first team to beat them comfortably so....)