Author Topic: So, where on earth did the five minutes come from?  (Read 16857 times)

Offline Jay012345

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Re: So, where on earth did the five minutes come from?
« Reply #160 on: October 29, 2009, 11:01:04 am »
Didnt we score in the 6th minute?

Offline MickeyMouse

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Re: So, where on earth did the five minutes come from?
« Reply #161 on: October 29, 2009, 11:01:08 am »
Ah no, fair dos. Credit for showing your sources, I use soccernet myself, they're never spot on but they go in depth on everyone and I trust them (IE, it's not blatantly biased like that transferleague site, which was set up by a Man Utd fan and gets a lot of figures wrong, hence my suspicion at a non-sourced photobucket link).

like I said I didn't put them together but I have had a go in another post, can't guarantee they're completely accurate but they're close enough (there's only so long you can stare at a computer screen before it all blurs into one)

You're right about the penalties last season too, stupid on my part - the West Ham one was from the season before, and it's sticking because although it was a blatant pen, Neill got away with a couple of clear handballs/hacks in that match at 0-0.

fair enough, I'm only going off soccernets stats and obviously I can't guarantee accuracy (I've seen mistakes in times articles recently about united games that I remember vividly so just because it's a reputable source doesn't mean it's accurate)

Still doesn't answer my question though - the point isn't how many penalties, but how many dodgy penalties? Doesn't matter if they're in a tight game if they're correctly given!

with the difference in numbers there is no case to answer, liverpool and united get dodgy decisions for and against and over all (on penalties anyway) they even themselves out, if united had 28 more penalties than conceed over the past 5 seasons and liverpool had 0 then there might be a case to answer.  A paranoid united fan might ask why carragher wasn't sent off for a blatant professional foul as the last defender at 1-0 on sunday, or why everton were robbed a couple of seasons ago (when you had 2 pens and they had 2 players sent off), its swings and roundabouts on the whole

Also, you're wrong to imply that yours didn't come at crucial times, or came mainly in games you won comfortable (though to be fair, I appreciate you're looking at an earlier season than I am). Bolton, Spurs for a start - two games you won comfortable only AFTER getting dubious penalties in your favour. I do believe the first goal in your rout of Stoke was the same - compare our 4-0 against them this season to our 0-0 at home last, where we had a legit goal chalked off after 2mins, to see the difference an earlyish goal makes in those kinds of games.

specific examples can be found for both teams, I could use that soccernet site but it would take too long, the best way to judge is to look at long term stats.

You also haven't answered my question about the obvious difference in how Ronaldo and Rooney's retaliations were dealt with compared to everyone else in the rest of the league. Exactly HOW did they get away with what they did, when, honestly, pretty much every other time I've seen such incidents picked up (Huth this season, for example), they've been punished with a retrospective red? I will grant you that we got lucky with Mash in the Carling Cup.

what you're talking about is subjective, a liverpool fans opinion is probably different to a united fans opinion which is probably different to a neutrals opinion.  I can't believe the stuff macherano gets away with, every single match I see him arguing with the ref and so on but you won't remember it because it doesn't evoke an emotional response from you.

But there's another one - compare Mash sending off at OT to Rooney's against Fulham. Mash got a 2 game ban for the way he left the pitch, was it really much different to how Rooney reacted? Took more time, but was a lot less aggressive. Not to mention what Mash got sent off for in the first place. Can you honestly say that Rooney in particular doesn't get away with a LOT more in terms of swearing, shouting at refs etc, in almost every game he plays?

there's no comparison between the rooney incident and the mascherano one
rooney: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQrFDRMIxpw
macherano: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5S3a6L69zY

both yellow cards were unjustified but mascherano's behaviour was threatening towards the ref and he had to be removed from the pitch, rooney made a quick a point and left the field quickly and on his own.

Then there's his tackling - already escaped a blatant red this season. Then there's Scholes tackling - just how many horrible challenges before he gets booked?

don't know what tackle you're talking about, I could say the same about carragher in general, he's always fouling (sunday just the latest example) and getting off lightly or with no punishment, also how did lucas manage to get through the game without at least a yellow, I can remember 5 fouls off the top of my head and I'm sure there were more.  It's swings and roundabouts, you remember the incidents in favour of united because they evoke a negative emotional response so you remember it clearly and it sticks with you (an evolutionary trick so we don't make the same mistake twice, from when making a mistake would probably cost you your life)

There was an interesting stat regarding Phil Neville, as it happens - he's been sent off loads for Everton, and never was for Utd. He was asked about it, and said that he doesn't play any differently, still goes in the same for challenges. Doesn't that suggest to you that Utd players get more 'wiggle room' than most? Can't think of any former Liverpool players who suddenly started collecting reds when they joined another prem club...

I've never heard of that, do you have a source and I'm guessing there are no liverpool stats because no one would bother to go out looking for them

and 3 possible explanations (or contributing factors at least)

1. neville plays central midfield for everton but only played there for united infrequently, you're bound to pick up more cards playing in central midfield than at full back

2. he's playing more regularly

3. at everton he comes under far more pressure and has to win the ball back more often than he did for united.

Offline MickeyMouse

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Re: So, where on earth did the five minutes come from?
« Reply #162 on: October 29, 2009, 11:10:56 am »
Iincidentally Mickey, I personally actually really appreciate the effort you're going to here. It's nice to see, and you may notice that unlike you're mate you haven't been shot down, and that's because you've been careful in your language, from what I can see shown some respect, and backed up what you're saying.

Just wanted to add - why are you using injury time GOALS?

You won't find anyone here who doesn't, through gritted teeth, understand and admit that Utd tend to be fitter than their opponents and have a great skill, not luck, skill at pressurising towards the end of a match - it's practically your trademark. That you score x goals in injury time would never surprise me, and I wouldn't use it to show bias, either for or against.

It's the AMOUNT of injury time GIVEN WHEN LOSING that's relevant, and as I said above, it's already been proven - not guessed, not looked at a few games and you got more in those, but actually proven over a number of seasons, and season by season, that you get more injury time than any other team when you are losing, as I said, it's an average of 20-30s I seem to remember, which doesn't sound a lot, but when you're score as often as you do, or we do, in injury time, an extra 30s or so makes a hell of a lot of difference.

I'd also love to see the stats for 'tight' games - IE, games you/we are losing by one or drawing, then compares those with stats for losing by 2, losing by 3, winning by 1, winning by 2. That would give a really clear picture of whether one team is being favoured in terms of injury time. Still though, I think those Guardian stats were pretty clear.

I haven't read or seen the full debate on here about injury time but it's pretty obvious to me that

a. if a team playing united is drawing or winning they will waste as much time as possible with injuries, substitutions and general slow play - the longer they've been winning/drawing the more time they'll waste adding to the amount of injury time and also forcing the ref to add more time than was shown (if its done in injury time)

b. when united are winning we still tend to play out own game and not waste time as much, we're usually the team putting the pressure on and trying to force another goal no matter what the score (I know there are particular cases when this isn't case but generally it's true)

c. if we do score (which you admit we do more than most) then the goal celebrations will also add on time, plus the inevitable substitution straight after the goal if it's a tight game

d. ferguson (and other managers) make unneccessary substitutions when losing, make them as quickly as possible to get time added on and so a net gain if the sub takes less than 30 seconds.

to genuinely compare the injury times of different games you also have to analyse the number of substitutions, at what time they took place, how many injuries there were and when they were, what the score was throughout the second half etc etc, without those.  Any slight difference overall I think can be explained by the 4 points I made above, although you may have information I'm not aware of.

EDIT: I had a look at the guardian article http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2009/sep/22/manchester-united-goals-stoppage-time

it does say what that united get more time when losing when winning, logically explainable by what I said above, it also says that there is slightly less injury time at OT than at anfield, the emirate or stamford bridge, without looking in detail at some matches I can't provide an explanation however I would guess that it's explainable by the fact that united waste less time when winning than the other 3 teams mentioned and so overall that results in less injury time.

What the article doesn't do is say what the comparative figures for liverpool, cheslea and arsenal when winning/losing are, without which any discussion is meaningless as there is no way to say if united get beneficial treatment.   

The fact that the guardian didn't mention the winning/losing times for all teams (they must have had them otherwise they couldn't have calculated the total averages) means the writer of the article is either

a. stupid - if they show that united do get more extra injury time than the other 3 when losing then they are conclusive proof and give the article far more weight

or b. deliberately withholding information because it doesn't fit what the writer wants to say - far more likely as its the only reason I can think of for not including them.

I'll try and get the stats from somewhere, maybe the bbc have archives of the matches

EDIT2: can't find accurate injury times for anything other than this season, sky and soccernet have some but only to the minute, not to the second and it's hit and miss whether they're done or not so I can't get a comparison, still, everything I've said is perfectly logical and far more reasonable than the explanations offered by some.
« Last Edit: October 29, 2009, 02:49:14 pm by MickeyMouse »

Offline Anoynymouslad87

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Re: So, where on earth did the five minutes come from?
« Reply #163 on: October 29, 2009, 02:29:23 pm »
Erm, except it IS specifically higher for Man Utd when you are losing than it is for other teams. The Guardian proved it, with data taken since, 05 I think? Then broke it down season by season, it was widely quoted on Sky Sports, and it was a significant gap 20-30s on average I do believe it was.

You've proven sod all, looked at 4 matches or something and that's your 'proof'. You can't twist this one - Man Utd DO get more injury time than anyone else when they are losing, and that, honestly, is a fact.

This is where YOU miss the point, MY RESPONSE WAS IN RESPONSE TO A CLAIM by a Liverpool fan on this site that United always get a minimum of 4 mins added time.
I said I would provide evidence that would show 4 minutes was the norm and show games where Liverpool havenot been winning and 4 minutes or more have been added on.
There was absolutely no need for me to produce season after season of injury time stats.
I took recent games and those recent games showed MOST of the time Liverpool were given 4 minutes or more of injury time. THAT IS A FACT.

My point was that this was the norm and I SHOWED THAT LIVERPOOL when losing  recently have been given more than 4 minutes on most occasions, now if you can SHOW ME or at least tell me that youve got evidence that suggests going even further back this isnt the case feel free.

And this Guardian article, so many holes in it as the above poster mentioned its embarrassing that you believe it proves some kind of point , the article lists that there is less injury time at Old Trafford than the other grounds when United are in winning positions, yet when going on to talk about Uniteds injury time in LOSING positions, there are no comparisons with other clubs.

Article only talks about home games. why no mention of away games? Injury time isnt restricted to home games.

"deliberately withholding information because it doesn't fit what the writer wants to say"

Thats whats going on there, in fact the ONLY thing that article proves is that we get more injury time at home when we're losing than winning, which is a freaking given.
This would be the case for ALL of the top 4.


Offline Anoynymouslad87

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Re: So, where on earth did the five minutes come from?
« Reply #164 on: October 29, 2009, 02:33:25 pm »
Now, if you can, I want you to prove with solid hardcore numbers and games( a bit like the way I did it) that United get more injury time when they're not winning than Liverpool.
Until you do this, I'm afraid this is just another paranoid delusion gripping scouse nation.

Go through our games from last season, get all the injury times for us and you, get them down, add them up, if youve got the evidence show it, put up or shut up.
And dont quote blatantly BIASED guardian articles, especially as the Guardian have a history of Fergie slating.

Offline James B

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Re: So, where on earth did the five minutes come from?
« Reply #165 on: October 29, 2009, 02:35:57 pm »
Now, if you can, I want you to prove with solid hardcore numbers and games( a bit like the way I did it) that United get more injury time when they're not winning than Liverpool.
Until you do this, I'm afraid this is just another paranoid delusion gripping scouse nation.

Go through our games from last season, get all the injury times for us and you, get them down, add them up, if youve got the evidence show it, put up or shut up.
And dont quote blatantly BIASED guardian articles, especially as the Guardian have a history of Mr Alex Ferguson slating.

Read your post and you stated nothing to properly contradict my opinion. The five minutes backfired on you hilariously, as did the beachball stint from your fans.  :wave

Offline Il Nina

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Re: So, where on earth did the five minutes come from?
« Reply #166 on: October 29, 2009, 02:36:10 pm »
Didnt we score in the 6th minute?

Exactly, it evens out over the season, for most teams. I think anyways.
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Offline James B

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Re: So, where on earth did the five minutes come from?
« Reply #167 on: October 29, 2009, 02:37:23 pm »
Exactly, it evens out over the season, for most teams. I think anyways.

Yup, sadly not all. (Man Utd).

Offline Il Nina

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Re: So, where on earth did the five minutes come from?
« Reply #168 on: October 29, 2009, 02:41:32 pm »
Yup, sadly not all. (Man Utd).

Lol! Well it worked against them on Sunday didn't it. 5 extra mins and we scored in the 6th. No complaints from me  ;D
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Offline James B

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Re: So, where on earth did the five minutes come from?
« Reply #169 on: October 29, 2009, 02:44:06 pm »
Lol! Well it worked against them on Sunday didn't it. 5 extra mins and we scored in the 6th. No complaints from me  ;D
I'm still delighted about it now ;D, but...

That was why I started this thread, what would you have said if Michael Owen popped up in the 96th minute with an equaliser? There should never have been five minutes.

Offline Il Nina

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Re: So, where on earth did the five minutes come from?
« Reply #170 on: October 29, 2009, 02:50:40 pm »
I'm still delighted about it now ;D, but...

That was why I started this thread, what would you have said if Michael Owen popped up in the 96th minute with an equaliser? There should never have been five minutes.

Exactly it would have been devastating, but more so because we deserved to win the game, they would have been extremely lucky to draw the match. But that didn't happen luckily. I thought they would score in that added time, they normally do, but is that a sign of a lucky team or a strong team to keep going to the end? We have done it a fair few times too. At the end of the day we scored again and that's all that matters. I do see your point though mate. Am just still buzzing from the win and made up it was us who scored  ;D
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Offline Anoynymouslad87

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Re: So, where on earth did the five minutes come from?
« Reply #171 on: October 29, 2009, 03:03:14 pm »
Read your post and you stated nothing to properly contradict my opinion. The five minutes backfired on you hilariously, as did the beachball stint from your fans.  :wave

No, I didnt dcontradict your opinion, my intention wasnt to show that we dont always get 4 minutes, because I'v already stated 4 minutes is the norm.

What I did show is that the advantage you are so so angry about United having, Liverpool are apparently having too.
Thats what I showed. I used FACTS, hard facts, didnt quote some garbage guardian article with stupid averages, I actually got the ACTUAL stoppage time stats ofr the exact games.

Im not disputing we dont always get more than 4 minutes, because we probably do, but as I said, its the norm, people only make it a point when it's United.
Then there's whats done on here with it, which is a whole other level.



Offline the_prodigal_s0n

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Re: So, where on earth did the five minutes come from?
« Reply #172 on: October 29, 2009, 03:43:32 pm »
No, I didnt dcontradict your opinion, my intention wasnt to show that we dont always get 4 minutes, because I'v already stated 4 minutes is the norm.

What I did show is that the advantage you are so so angry about United having, Liverpool are apparently having too.
Thats what I showed. I used FACTS, hard facts, didnt quote some garbage guardian article with stupid averages, I actually got the ACTUAL stoppage time stats ofr the exact games.

Im not disputing we dont always get more than 4 minutes, because we probably do, but as I said, its the norm, people only make it a point when it's United.
Then there's whats done on here with it, which is a whole other level.



You've done it for what, this season? You can't tell anything from that set of values. The sample size is way, way too small to be able to infer anything about those statistics. If you're serious about proving someone wrong then you need to go through at the very least a whole season's worth of data. A few games proves fuck all. The potential error is far too high.

The Guardian article appears to have collected data from a while back. If that's the case it's far more reliable than data from a few games this season.

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Re: So, where on earth did the five minutes come from?
« Reply #173 on: October 29, 2009, 06:35:45 pm »
I'm sure this will get deleted and I'll be banned as no one wants facts in a debate about united and refs, but here goes nothing

http://i157.photobucket.com/albums/t64/captainfantasticpants/comparisons.jpg

it seems liverpool are the team that has received the most benefit from refereeing decisions over the past few seasons in terms of red cards and penalties.

Oooh, well there you have it. A knocked up spreadsheet uploaded to photobucket. Doesn't get any more conclusive than that then, does it?

Anyways, this is fucking tedious now.