I'm as frustrated with results we get like the Luton away as much as anyone, but one thing I've become more certain of over the years of tracking the APLT model, is that results like that aren't the key determinate of a season.
We all know football is a low scoring sport with small margins that make a big impact. Away from home to a newly promoted side, under the lights, with nothing to lose and their fans buoyant will sometimes not go our way. The model for the APLT is based on the importance of winning at home and picking up enough points away from home to get to the 90 point mark. In the past winning all home games and drawing all aways was enough, now you need a bit more.
The other things I've stood by over the years is that predicting where you can pick up your extra points away from home is very difficult. Some matches fall at good times (injuries, suspensions and poor form of the opposition) or bad times (e.g. 12.30 kick offs after the international breaks).
We're ahead of where we need to be at this stage because we've done better than the model overall. Let's not focus anymore on Luton away and look at the spirit this team has already shown to win at Newcastle when the odds were stacked against us, and nearly get a point at spurs when pretty much everything went against us.
Yesterday came at a good time for us. 12.30 kick offs are horrible and first game after International breaks make it even worse. It meant neither team was quite on it and the fans were subdued which gave us the conditions to get a good point for us and hurt them with dropped home points.
We need to make our very good start count now and that comes with building a strong record at home. We will drop more points on the road, no doubt, where and when, I have no idea, but at Anfield, let's make sure we make those points ours.
Up the reds
