Topic: The Horse Racing thread

[duvva 💅]

Not sure how you've come to that conclusion about Sir Gerhard Duvva? Only one of the three has won a Grade One at the festival.

Didn't realise Facile Vega's sire is Walk In The Park, he's all the rage at the moment as a sire here in Ireland, very interesting.

It’s more my reading of what I’ve seen from them over hurdles so far and where in my mind I think they sit currently and what they may have the potential to do. Obviously Sir Gerhard has achieved more in terms of his form last year, but over hurdles he’s achieved the least of the three so far and perhaps given how those at the head of last years Cheltenham Bumper have fared since, perhaps they aren’t quite as good as they looked at the time.

Edit- I should probably qualify the bumper comment as some are definitely high quality horses who have won and placed well in top races since, but I think Sir Gerhard slightly stole it (and I say that as someone who won a decent amount as a result), and just feel that the Henderson two just look to have the potential to be even better. I guess we’ll see soon enough. I certainly been wrong before!

[Gerry Attrick]

On a semi-related note the one that beat Constitution Hill is entered up in a handicap hurdle on Thursday. Goes by the name of Anyharminasking and Jonjo O’Neill has managed to get it a handicap mark of 114. Got to be winning imminently off a mark like that.

[FlashGordon]

It’s more my reading of what I’ve seen from them over hurdles so far and where in my mind I think they sit currently and what they may have the potential to do. Obviously Sir Gerhard has achieved more in terms of his form last year, but over hurdles he’s achieved the least of the three so far and perhaps given how those at the head of last years Cheltenham Bumper have fared since, perhaps they aren’t quite as good as they looked at the time.

Edit- I should probably qualify the bumper comment as some are definitely high quality horses who have won and placed well in top races since, but I think Sir Gerhard slightly stole it (and I say that as someone who won a decent amount as a result), and just feel that the Henderson two just look to have the potential to be even better. I guess we’ll see soon enough. I certainly been wrong before!

Fair enough, I would just add that Sir Gerhard hasn't had a chance to show how good he is. I'm not sure what Constitution Hill beat the last day as well. The Henderson pair do look visually impressive of course, but I'm not sure you can definitively have more in their locker than Sir Gerhard at this moment.

[duvva 💅]

Fair enough, I would just add that Sir Gerhard hasn't had a chance to show how good he is. I'm not sure what Constitution Hill beat the last day as well. The Henderson pair do look visually impressive of course, but I'm not sure you can definitively have more in their locker than Sir Gerhard at this moment.

Can probably say the same about Jonbon, he’s been forced to make his own running in both races as no one wanted to even start. I think he’s the best novice I’ve ever seen in terms of getting from one side of a hurdle to the other, doesn’t mean he’ll necessarily have the engine when finally pushed, we’ll have to see.
Thing about Sir Gerhard for me was I feel Kilcruit was probably the superior of the two last year but doesn’t look like he’s gone on at the moment. He obviously couldn’t have done more than he did in his debut but based on last season I’m not convinced he’s got as much potential as the other two.

[FlashGordon]

I see Matt Chapman is saying Constitution Hill needs to go straight to the Champion Hurdle. It's this kind of overhyping that does my head in really.

[duvva 💅]

Not like Chapman to get involved in overhyping a horse 

They’re really scratching around for something to make a contest with Honeysuckle. Hopefully Appreciate It will be out soon

[Gerry Attrick]

On a semi-related note the one that beat Constitution Hill is entered up in a handicap hurdle on Thursday. Goes by the name of Anyharminasking and Jonjo O’Neill has managed to get it a handicap mark of 114. Got to be winning imminently off a mark like that.

Won doing handstands.

[duvva 💅]

Won doing handstands.

Nice find Gerry. Interesting to see what the handicapper does now and whether it gets in to something like the County Hurdle if that’s the plan

[duvva 💅]

Bob Olinger out on Sunday at Punchestown, should be a decent test with Gaillard du Mesnil and Capodanno in there as well. Rewatched his first go over fences a few nights back and think you were right Gerry I probably judged him too harshly, couldn’t have done much more than he did and jumped well apart from the last couple.

[Gerry Attrick]

Think BO has become a tiny bit overlooked. The horses he beat over hurdles have piles to find over fences and while they look good Bob Olinger hammered one on his debut that went on to win a Grade 1. De Bromhead hasn’t really scaled the heights this season though which tempers my enthusiasm a bit. He’ll be too short so I’ll just watch him win hopefully.

[duvva 💅]

Looks like we could get the Shishkin/Energumene clash at Ascot next Saturday after Henderson gave Shishkin the go ahead earlier. Would be amazing to see, hopefully Mullins confirms Energumene as it seemed to be the plan to come here

[Gerry Attrick]

Some very promising animals running in Ireland today. Let’s see what Dysart Dynamo has up his sleeve, obviously Bob Olinger too.

[Gerry Attrick]

He’s just very, very smart. I’ll be on him at Cheltenham with no qualms.

[duvva 💅]

Just caught up with these. Two impressive performances.

Bob’s now best price Evens for the Turner Nov chase, not sure where his competition will come from unless they decide to send Galopin for this race, probably the only horse who’s be able to put up a fight.

Another choice for Mullins now, will they switch Dysart Dynamo to the Supreme and Sir Gerhard for the Ballymore

[FlashGordon]

Wasn't really on the Dysart Dynamo hype train until today but I've bought my ticket after that. Bob Olinger is just pure and utter class.

[duvva 💅]

Given Henry more or less confirmed the 2m5 G1 at Leopardstown for Bob Olinger next (unless the ground is too lively) I’m really surprised to see he’s 10/3 and Galopin Des Champs is 4/7. I mean GDC was super impressive at Christmas but I’d still expect them to be much closer in price and I’d have expected Bob to be Fav

[duvva 💅]

Also interested in Icare Allen for both the Spring Juvenile (5/1) and the Triumph (14/1). I know Fil Dor has been pretty good so far but liked Icare Allen’s first run at Christmas and feel he’s too big a price.

Thoughts lads?

[FlashGordon]

Also interested in Icare Allen for both the Spring Juvenile (5/1) and the Triumph (14/1). I know Fil Dor has been pretty good so far but liked Icare Allen’s first run at Christmas and feel he’s too big a price.

Thoughts lads?

I'm not sure anything beats Fil Dor Duvva, maybe one for the betting W/O market on the day?

On Bob Olinger and GDC I'm very surprised by that. Can't see how Bob Olinger isn't the favourite any time he lines up on a track.

[duvva 💅]

I'm not sure anything beats Fil Dor Duvva, maybe one for the betting W/O market on the day?

On Bob Olinger and GDC I'm very surprised by that. Can't see how Bob Olinger isn't the favourite any time he lines up on a track.

I’ve already taken a chance on the 10/3, so hopefully Bob turns up, kinda doubtful despite what De Bromhead said given the price.

I might have Icare Allen wrong but I read something around the sectionals and time figures and his Christmas run compared favourably with Fil Dor’s on that score. Also liked the way he finished the race strongly which you need on the new course in March, so think his worth a shot at the price.

Ante Post betting ain’t what it once was, bookies cut prices to single figures off the back of one decent run these days so I usually take a chance on a few early

[FlashGordon]

I’ve already taken a chance on the 10/3, so hopefully Bob turns up, kinda doubtful despite what De Bromhead said given the price.

I might have Icare Allen wrong but I read something around the sectionals and time figures and his Christmas run compared favourably with Fil Dor’s on that score. Also liked the way he finished the race strongly which you need on the new course in March, so think his worth a shot at the price.

Ante Post betting ain’t what it once was, bookies cut prices to single figures off the back of one decent run these days so I usually take a chance on a few early

The Ante Post markets are ridiculous now, you nearly need to back a horse before it's first race now if you want to find any decent odds which is ludicrous.

I'm not a massive follower of sectionals and time figures to be honest, try go more on form in the book as in my opinion races can be run different ways which surely effects the times and sectionals?

[duvva 💅]

The Ante Post markets are ridiculous now, you nearly need to back a horse before it's first race now if you want to find any decent odds which is ludicrous.

I'm not a massive follower of sectionals and time figures to be honest, try go more on form in the book as in my opinion races can be run different ways which surely effects the times and sectionals?

Me either to be honest but I do have a read if something looks interesting and these ones were put up on the trends site I always use in the run up to Cheltenham - www.gaultstats.com

https://www.attheraces.com/blogs/sectional-spotlight/29-December-2021/hats-off-to-danny-mullins-for-king-george-ride

Can’t say I fully understand everything on there but get the general gist. On one hand Icare Allen looks good on the other the bumper horse I really liked Redemption Day is terrible on the figures. Swings and roundabouts but can help to put a different perspective on some performances.

One thing I only really noticed when watching the races back is the massive change to the course/rails etc they took on different days over Christmas at Leopardstown. So as you say that kind of thing probably reduces the reliability of these type of figures, but still find them interesting to consider

[FlashGordon]

Me either to be honest but I do have a read if something looks interesting and these ones were put up on the trends site I always use in the run up to Cheltenham - www.gaultstats.com

https://www.attheraces.com/blogs/sectional-spotlight/29-December-2021/hats-off-to-danny-mullins-for-king-george-ride

Can’t say I fully understand everything on there but get the general gist. On one hand Icare Allen looks good on the other the bumper horse I really liked Redemption Day is terrible on the figures. Swings and roundabouts but can help to put a different perspective on some performances.

One thing I only really noticed when watching the races back is the massive change to the course/rails etc they took on different days over Christmas at Leopardstown. So as you say that kind of thing probably reduces the reliability of these type of figures, but still find them interesting to consider

Oh they are certainly very interesting mate and definitely have their place in weighing up bets, but I suppose I feel you can go too far relying on them as well. Horse racing isn't an exact science after all.

One of the best things about racing is there are many different formulas you can use to lose your hard earned 

[duvva 💅]

Drooling at the prospect of Shishkin and Energumene taking each other on at Ascot this Saturday. Just hope we get a true run race and both are firing

[FlashGordon]

Drooling at the prospect of Shishkin and Energumene taking each other on at Ascot this Saturday. Just hope we get a true run race and both are firing

Should be race of the season so far anyway mate. Mouth watering prospect.

[Gerry Attrick]

Watching brief only for me but I’d be on Shishkin if I had to. Think a strong run 2 miles is right in his wheel house and he’ll get that against Energumene. Should be a cracker though.

[duvva 💅]

Same Gerry. I think Shishkin will just edge it and there are some races you don’t need a financial involvement in, the spectacle itself should be enough

[duvva 💅]

Not an easy task for Jonbon tomorrow, got to give 5lb to Might I who was giving 6lb to Constitution Hill so we should get a good idea of how good he is if he can win impressively. Got everything crossed for him.

Interesting that Energumene has shortened up in the betting tonight I know there’s probably not much between them and perhaps the betting is a fairer reflection now but Shishkin is almost getting to a price I may consider a bet. Probably won’t but be interesting to see what prices they go off.

Can’t wait

[FlashGordon]

That looked.....ugly. A win is a win but not sure I'd be doing cartwheels if I was Nicky Henderson.

[duvva 💅]

Yeah a bit workmanlike, stuck his head down and pulled away at the end giving weight away, but not as impressive a performance as a couple we’ve seen in the last few weeks.

[Fiasco]

Softer ground than he probably wants, wide trip, sweated up beforehand, giving weight away and still pulls away. He would have learned quite a bit there.

[duvva 💅]

Softer ground than he probably wants, wide trip, sweated up beforehand, giving weight away and still pulls away. He would have learned quite a bit there.

Those are the positives and I’m trying to take that view having backed him a while ago for the Supreme, but I’m not confident anymore. Didn’t travel as well today as he has and the fact he is a bit buzzy doesn’t  perhaps bode well for the white hot Cheltenham atmosphere

[Fiasco]

Those are the positives and I’m trying to take that view having backed him a while ago for the Supreme, but I’m not confident anymore. Didn’t travel as well today as he has and the fact he is a bit buzzy doesn’t  perhaps bode well for the white hot Cheltenham atmosphere

True. The ground could be key, Constitution Hill won on quite testing going last time out and you get the feeling at this stage Jonbon doesn't want too much juice in it. I do think he'll come on a lot for that today though, and if the ground is good I think he might be too quick for Constitution Hill.

[Gerry Attrick]

What a horse race.

[duvva 💅]

What a horse race.

One for the ages that. Brilliant from Shishkin to battle it out there, but Energumene lost nothing in defeat. Looking forward to the rematch

[duvva 💅]

True. The ground could be key, Constitution Hill won on quite testing going last time out and you get the feeling at this stage Jonbon doesn't want too much juice in it. I do think he'll come on a lot for that today though, and if the ground is good I think he might be too quick for Constitution Hill.

I’ve had another look at the race and I think he’s probably done better than it looked initially. He jumped almost into the back of one at the second last and as they’ve pointed out he picked up twice in the straight which is a good sign. It was also a second quicker from the final bend than Tommys Oscar who was carrying 7lb less.

[Gerry Attrick]

Don’t see how Shishkin ever gets beat by Enurgemene. Everything went wrong for him today, he was never travelling and Enurgemene tried to run it out of him on a flat track. He still got up on the line. At Cheltenham where’s there’s even more emphasis on stamina I think we see a bigger winning margin. If Henderson wants he could easily step Shishkin up in trip next year. Think it’ll be like Min trying to beat Altior.

[duvva 💅]

Don’t see how Shishkin ever gets beat by Enurgemene. Everything went wrong for him today, he was never travelling and Enurgemene tried to run it out of him on a flat track. He still got up on the line. At Cheltenham where’s there’s even more emphasis on stamina I think we see a bigger winning margin. If Henderson wants he could easily step Shishkin up in trip next year. Think it’ll be like Min trying to beat Altior.

It’s close enough that nothing would surprise, but I agree Cheltenham and going left handed in likely better ground should all be in Shishkin’s favour

[aedge659]

Shishkin, wow just wow. Totally agree with Gerry's verdict. Any of you done anything antepost wise for Cheltenham yet? Surely Shishkin and Honeysuckle can't be beaten? Both enhance there reputation with every race.

[duvva 💅]

Shishkin, wow just wow. Totally agree with Gerry's verdict. Any of you done anything antepost wise for Cheltenham yet? Surely Shishkin and Honeysuckle can't be beaten? Both enhance there reputation with every race.

Yep I’ve been gradually getting my ante post bets on since last March, most have been in the last 2 months though. How about you? It’s not what it once was, really difficult to get a decent price on anything after they’ve had a run these days.
As you say both seem obvious winners but usually a few of the shortys get beaten at Cheltenham. Remember Douvan at 2/9! Only Appreciate It has the class to give Honeysuckle a race if she’s at her best. Even then it’s a bit of a long shot at the moment considering he hasn’t been seen since March.

[Gerry Attrick]

I think Allaho in the Ryanair is bomb proof too because of lack of competition. Shan Blue might be on my agenda as the saver at some point this week. He'd have won the Charlie Hall by 2 furlongs if he stood up. Think Ginto looks nice in the Albert Bartlett if they send him there.