So we've been talking about it in PMs, and there are a few threads on the general state of the economy, and oil/gas prices, that have started bleeding into trading and investment.
It seems we have a few hardcore traders and financially-literate posters about. We also have either (depending on your philosophy) a once in a decade buying opportunity, or a once in a lifetime short opportunity.
So why not have a thread dedicated to trading, amateur and/or professional? Obviously, noone's responsible for your own shitty decisions except yourself.
Let's try and keep this thread on topic. I suggest we have a few ground rules - add as you see fit -
- Put your money where your mouth is. Post only open positions, or positions you're about to open.
- Post your reasons for the trade, a chart, a timeframe, opening date, opening price, ticker symbol, and a target.
- Close all open positions publicly.
- Have fun!
I'll start with the only open position I have right now. It's the one I posted on the oil/gas prices thread.
Company: Frontier Oil
Stock Symbol: FTO
Position: Long January $20 Call, symbol +FTOAD
Price: $2.95
Position Opened: 9/16 ($3.3), 9/17 ($2.6)
Target: Undetermined, FTO to hit $25 by January 17 2009.
Reasons - Lots of babies thrown out with the bathwater, and I think some of the selling in energy has been overdone, probably because the sector was such a winner early in the year. Refining margins were very strong the last few years, but got squeezed hard when oil got too expensive. FTO (and refiners in general) has a low P/E ratio, is safe from hurricanes in hurricane season, stands to gain from "lower" oil prices and "higher" gasoline prices. Technically, it looks to have formed a base around $18, and has done a double bottom around $16. Volume on up days has been impressive lately, and the ratio of up days to down days has been good this month (2.5:1) in a very shitty month for stocks.
The trend looks like it's about to change, and the MACD is about to cross positive. Furthermore, I expect the Wednesday EIA inventory report to be bullish as the effects of Ike are factored in (closed refiners, drawdown in gasoline stocks, increased margins).
Chart -