Topic: Chasing the Title

[PoetryInMotion]

Jack the Lad is right though  A few more goals from somewhere and we're likely ahead by a few points by now. Everyone can do the research themselves, but the highest scoring teams usually win the league more than the better-defending ones. And in a 3-points-for-a-win league, one goal is approximately worth one point. So JTL is not far wrong.

But that doesn't apply always. It depends on what role is assigned to what players & what set-up it is. If wing-backs are set-up to be the play-makers, then they will create more than others. If wide forward is set-up to be the goalscorer, he will score more than others. This is the case with our team.

Our midfielders are asked to contribute elsewhere (different kind of tasks). It helps if you score more as a team, but that's not an analysis. It's the same for every team. Every team will feel they need to score more.

[trimore]

I don't think goals from midfield is a long term issue. Keita and Fabinho needed time to bed in and will be better next season. Henderson playing further forward could easily happen more often next season. Ox will be back. Our defence contributes more goals and creates more as well.

A much bigger issue is beyond the 4 main strikers. Sane, Sterling, Aguero and B Silva are about even with Salah, Mane, Bobby, and Shaq. But man, Sturridge and Origi get absolutely crushed by Jesus and Mahrez. That's really all it is between us.

As much as I like Origi and Sturridge, the numbers don't lie. They have to be upgraded.   

[Caligula?]

Pressure does weird things.  Really weird things.  You've just got to hang on in the game and give it the chance it needs.

May not happen, May happen to us, but it may happen to them... time will tell

Oddly enough, they seem to be thriving on it. At least in the league. In fact it was last season when under no real pressure at all where they dropped points in the latter half of the league. They lost 3-2 to United and I think drew 0-0 with Huddersfield. There may have been more I don't recall. I'm willing to bet that every Premier League winner since '92 has dropped points at one point or another during the run in (March and after). It just so happens to be that during our best ever season in almost every aspect, we're up against a side that may not drop a single point from February onwards. What kind of abysmal luck is that.

[Achilles Heel]

Exactly! 11/12 when City were going for their first title, after 34 games  United had 82 points, City had 77.  City looked dead and buried, everyone was telling them they couldn’t do it and that United had the experience and know how get over the line. I think in them last 4 games City beat United at home (unfortunately we haven’t got that opportunity) and I also think United blew a 4-2 lead against Everton in injury time to draw 4-4. Now we are City and City are United with the experience and know how. But as you say weird things happen and can happen at anytime. No one saw that Everton result coming when 4-2 up. So a weird thing might just happen at Burnley or against Leicester. We all have to keep on believing!

Also, it is often forgotten that in 2013/2014 the title was still in Chelsea hands  if they won their last 4 games:

Liverpool: Played 34 Points 77
Chelsea:  Played 34 Points 75
City : Played 33 Points 71.

But Chelsea lost at home in their 35th game to then  bottom team Sunderland.

[Crosby Nick]

Oddly enough, they seem to be thriving on it. At least in the league. In fact it was last season when under no real pressure at all where they dropped points in the latter half of the league. They lost 3-2 to United and I think drew 0-0 with Huddersfield. There may have been more I don't recall. I'm willing to bet that every Premier League winner since '92 has dropped points at one point or another during the run in (March and after). It just so happens to be that during our best ever season in almost every aspect, we're up against a side that may not drop a single point from February onwards. What kind of abysmal luck is that.

I’d imagine the previous best winning run to win the League was Arsenal in 2002 when we also finished second. Our pact with the Devil paying dividends again.

[Achilles Heel]

Oddly enough, they seem to be thriving on it. At least in the league. In fact it was last season when under no real pressure at all where they dropped points in the latter half of the league. They lost 3-2 to United and I think drew 0-0 with Huddersfield. There may have been more I don't recall. I'm willing to bet that every Premier League winner since '92 has dropped points at one point or another during the run in (March and after). It just so happens to be that during our best ever season in almost every aspect, we're up against a side that may not drop a single point from February onwards. What kind of abysmal luck is that.

Nearly right I think. Arsenal finished with 13 straight wins in 2001/202 in a run that started in early February.

EDIT: Beaten to the answer in the post above.

[Black Bull Nova]

I'll make my judgement on how United go into the City game once they've finished the Everton game.

I do not believe United will be contemplating the Europa League next year, they aim to spend but who will choose them without a CL place.

Wednesday's game effectively shapes their next 2 years

They have Chelsea (H), Huddersfield (A) and Cardiff (H) after this. They will be thinking they can catch Chelsea at the least.

[PhaseOfPlay]

Looking forward to numbers, I assume it's ALL leagues from the start of football rather than the current Premier league trend, which may be a blip? Hope your not going to be selective. You may have a point about best attack + defence as I always think about the Liverpool and Leeds teams, but then there was Forest! 

No, it's not all leagues from the start of football. It's specifically under 3-points-for-a-win.

[farawayred]

But that doesn't apply always. It depends on what role is assigned to what players & what set-up it is. If wing-backs are set-up to be the play-makers, then they will create more than others. If wide forward is set-up to be the goalscorer, he will score more than others. This is the case with our team.

Our midfielders are asked to contribute elsewhere (different kind of tasks). It helps if you score more as a team, but that's not an analysis. It's the same for every team. Every team will feel they need to score more.

You are right in what you're saying. But while I can't disagree with much, there is the other side of that argument. There have been many moments when and advanced MF (quite often Gini) was in a position where he could have taken a shot, but every man and his dog knows that that's not coming. Makes defending against us more predictable. And on the flip side that also supports that the goal danger from midfield is important, see Hendo's contribution in the last few games. Teams don't expect him to burst into the box and he scores or assists. Same with Keita.

I was hoping that by this time Keita would be doing that way earlier, but better late than never. Both Keita and Hendo are making up for that missing midfield threat.

[Motty]

Anyone thinking Utd won't be up for thud is talking complete fucking shite, they will want to win for the fact its a derby at home, CL spot on the line, dropped wages on the line, Ole's first Derby and everyone is forgetting how pissed they were at the end of the away game against them when Sterling and Co took the piss out of them in the end. Whether they have the quality to get a result is another matter though but let's not pretend like they are some relegation level team. Barcelona only got a 1-0 win at OT after all, not far off the result we need that.

[Number 7]

"Every day with this club and these players - it doesn't matter what happens next - we'll fight until the end," Guardiola told Match of the Day.

"We'll see how far we get. We are fighting with the best Liverpool ever, one of the best teams I've seen in my life."

All he's doing there is putting the pressure back on us before the Cardiff game. He's knows exactly what he's doing. Mind games. Thankfully Klopp won't even have read that utter bollocks.

[Dench57]

It's absolutely unbelievable that we've been waiting for City to drop any points, even just two with a draw, since their loss to Newcastle on January 29th. It's been almost three months and it seems ages ago too. In any other season bar this one and the last it would have already happened and we'd be sitting pretty at the top and probably a few points clear. The standards are ridiculous. It doesn't help that the league from 6th down is complete shite either.

Yeah my feeling too. I was pretty frustrated today, Spurs could've got something from that game if Son had his shooting boots on. They just edged it by having a stronger squad (Foden). Tiny, tiny margins. If they drop any points then the title is ours, but we're running out of road. This is fucking insane really, I'm still in complete belief that we can win this title, and that we will finish on 97 points.

But to finish on 97 points and not win anything. Fuuuucksfkoasfklsfdsasd. I can't contemplate it. If it does happen, when the dust settles and we'll all be in here chatting about going again and what an incredible team we have and so on. And rightly so, because this is the best Liverpool team I've seen in my lifetime and I won't have a single thing to criticise them for if they don't make it. But I can't face that right now.

We need to fucking win it this year. We're not fucking losing a title on 97 points.

[Number 7]

A load of people seem to be throwing in the towel here, saying we done our best, etc. Jesus, there's 4 games to go. I'd be fairly negative normally myself but ffs we've still got a great chance. Funny things happen in the final games. They won a tough game today but we've won a fair few tough ones ourselves that caused their fans to question if they could hang in there. They have a tougher run in so they could drop points in any fixture.

Whatever we do we can't just fucking hand it to them tomorrow. We need a win. That means they need all three at Old Trafford. See how their nerve is then. Keep the faith lads we are in it until the end.

Yeah. I think people are down because there is now one less game for them to drop points and Spurs were one of the better teams.

But even if it would have happened we still need to beat Cardiff. Beat Cardiff tomorrow and everyone will be feeling a bit better. We go back on top and then the pressure is back on them in the United game.

[Malaysian Kopite]

All he's doing there is putting the pressure back on us before the Cardiff game. He's knows exactly what he's doing. Mind games. Thankfully Klopp won't even have read that utter bollocks.

He seems to be putting a fair bit of pressure on his own players as well. Wonder if it's Guardiola overthinking again. With De Bruyne injured wouldn't put it past him to try something different in their next game(s) and have it blow up in his face. It would be glorious

[latortuga]

Nearly right I think. Arsenal finished with 13 straight wins in 2001/202 in a run that started in early February.

EDIT: Beaten to the answer in the post above.

Utd in 2000 won 11 straight to end the league.

[deFacto please, you bastards]

If we dont do it this year I firmly believe we are doing it next season. This team hasnt even peaked yet

[Malaysian Kopite]

If we dont do it this year I firmly believe we are doing it next season. This team hasnt even peaked yet

This is kinda my point. We're only getting better and I'm sure we'll turn some of those draws into wins and get an even better return next season

[deFacto please, you bastards]

This is kinda my point. We're only getting better and I'm sure we'll turn some of those draws into wins and get an even better return next season

We may not need 97 or 100 pts to win the league next year. These are abnormal seasons.

Non the less I believe in this side and the manager. Ive never felt this about any of our teams in the last 25 years.

[latortuga]

If we dont do it this year I firmly believe we are doing it next season. This team hasnt even peaked yet

No truer words spoken.  We're just getting started.

[lukeb1981]

If we dont do it this year I firmly believe we are doing it next season. This team hasnt even peaked yet

I am fully confident they will draw one of their remaining games and we will capitalize .I have my flights booked and my hotel booked for the Wolves match. I have no ticket but I want to be there when we do it , when I was 9 years of age and seen us lift the trophy I would have never thought in a million years I would have to wait this long to see that again.

[free_at_last]

Anyone thinking Utd won't be up for thud is talking complete fucking shite, they will want to win for the fact its a derby at home, CL spot on the line, dropped wages on the line, Ole's first Derby and everyone is forgetting how pissed they were at the end of the away game against them when Sterling and Co took the piss out of them in the end. Whether they have the quality to get a result is another matter though but let's not pretend like they are some relegation level team. Barcelona only got a 1-0 win at OT after all, not far off the result we need that.

Even the pathetic everton(who rate the success of their season by how successful we've been) surely wouldn't willingly give up a place in the CL rather than us win the league - I'm sure the mancs are the same(different if they had nothing to go for themselves) - that really would be cutting off your nose to spite your face.

[Malaysian Kopite]

Even the pathetic everton(who rate the success of their season by how successful we've been) surely wouldn't willingly give up a place in the CL rather than us win the league - I'm sure the mancs are the same(different if they had nothing to go for themselves) - that really would be cutting off your nose to spite your face.

Have you visited the Everton thread on here? 

[PhaseOfPlay]

Looking forward to numbers, I assume it's ALL leagues from the start of football rather than the current Premier league trend, which may be a blip? Hope your not going to be selective. You may have a point about best attack + defence as I always think about the Liverpool and Leeds teams, but then there was Forest! 

Here are the numbers since the inception of the Premier League. Best attack has won the league more (20% more) than best defence. Best defence and attack has only won 6 times. It pays more to get more goals than to keep more clean sheets, but the difference isn't huge, but it is significant. Ironically, IIRC, under 2-points-for-a-win, it's either/or (50/50) best attack/defence



Edit - I don't recall correctly. In the post-war 2-points era, the best defence won the league 55% of the time, and the best attack only won the league 36% of the time, so that's probably where the maxim of "clean sheets win championships" comes from. But 3-points for a win changed the game.

[free_at_last]

Have you visited the Everton thread on here? 

The crazy thing is even some everton players got caught up in the stop Liverpool mood(Coleman was bragging after the derby about how the players who'd been there a while were pleased to damage our title hopes). everton are actually in contention for the europa now - if they and their fans had been solely concentrating on themselves they may have picked up a few more points(eg against city and us) and they'd be in pole position for the europa spot.

[meady1981]

Just win today.

Those c*nts are creaking. Keep them under pressure.

[LFC when it suits]

We may not need 97 or 100 pts to win the league next year. These are abnormal seasons.

Non the less I believe in this side and the manager. Ive never felt this about any of our teams in the last 25 years.

They really aren't abnormal seasons though. These are normal seasons for a Guardiola team. Talk about all the money his teams have but he is that good of a manager that everywhere he goes, he raises the bar to another level. He gets found out in Europe where the lights shine the brightest and the quality is the highest but as a  league manager, he is out of this world.

[killer-heels]

They really aren't abnormal seasons though. These are normal seasons for a Guardiola team. Talk about all the money his teams have but he is that good of a manager that everywhere he goes, he raises the bar to another level. He gets found out in Europe where the lights shine the brightest and the quality is the highest but as a  league manager, he is out of this world.

Even he and his team has a shelf life. Their players look wound up to an inch of their lives and there will be a point where they just cant keep getting to that point.

Its all about how we hold and improve. Many of our players who are established as some of our best will be starting their third season or less in the first team. It will be the third for Salah and Robertson but only the second full season for Alisson, Van Dijk, Fabinho, Keita, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Gomez and Trent are still young and its only the likes of Lovren, Henderson, Wijnaldum, Milner, Mane, Firmino who are the challenge in keeping motivated.

Just freshen up with a couple of players and look to keep the pressure on again.

[LFC when it suits]

Even he and his team has a shelf life. Their players look wound up to an inch of their lives and there will be a point where they just cant keep getting to that point.

Its all about how we hold and improve. Many of our players who are established as some of our best will be starting their third season or less in the first team. It will be the third for Salah and Robertson but only the second full season for Alisson, Van Dijk, Fabinho, Keita, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Gomez and Trent are still young and its only the likes of Lovren, Henderson, Wijnaldum, Milner, Mane, Firmino who are the challenge in keeping motivated.

Just freshen up with a couple of players and look to keep the pressure on again.

I am sure we will, but we need to know that it will most likely require a 95-100 point season to win the title as long as Pep is manager at City.

[Sharado]

Just win today, obviously, but I'm feeling a bit bleak again. The chinks of light I'm holding onto are that was a very tense win for city yesterday (it reminded me of our Norwich game in 2014 before...well, you know), and pep overplaying De bruyne to injury might be a bit disruptive. I just can't see united doing it, I've an outside hope for Burnley. Then with Leicester/Brighton you're kind of hoping for miracles. It seems weird that we'd both just win to the end of the season though. But then so much about this season has been weird.

[killer-heels]

I am sure we will, but we need to know that it will most likely require a 95-100 point season to win the title as long as Pep is manager at City.

I am not sure we will need that many and to be honest. I wouldnt put money on us getting 97 points either again.

We do need City to drop off a bit. I think they will next season. It may still need high 80’s or early 90’’s but not 95-100.

[El Ninos Black Eye]

If we don’t win it this season (still think we will) the aim for Klopp is to make sure we break 90+points for the next 3 seasons. If we do that we will win it one of them seasons

[Wingman]

They really aren't abnormal seasons though. These are normal seasons for a Guardiola team. Talk about all the money his teams have but he is that good of a manager that everywhere he goes, he raises the bar to another level. He gets found out in Europe where the lights shine the brightest and the quality is the highest but as a  league manager, he is out of this world.

These are abnormal points tallies in the PL. Unfortunately City (probably against the rules) with Guardiola in charge have raised the bar over the last two years, and this may be their norm.

But this is not solely down to Pep, he has been rather fortunate (like Mourinho before him) to have the luxury of managing the most expensively assembled squad in the league and the biggest spending power to supplement it. I'm pretty sure that he wouldn't be getting 90+ points with any other team in the league this season (bar maybe Man Utd) had he gone there when he went to City

[Knight]

Win today. Force City to go to OT and win. If they do that win our last 3 which means that after the high of beating their local rivals at their own stadium to put one hand on the trophy, they have to win out. As the front runners that is a nightmare scenario to be in. Horrible for us to be relying on City to blink, but given how good this City team are, a title win was always going to be right on the margins.

[deano2727]

Yeah. I think people are down because there is now one less game for them to drop points and Spurs were one of the better teams.

But even if it would have happened we still need to beat Cardiff. Beat Cardiff tomorrow and everyone will be feeling a bit better. We go back on top and then the pressure is back on them in the United game.

Yes. This is how I feel. We MUST win or its done. Win and then there is a massive, massive game on Wednesday for City to navigate, where I personally think the league will be won or lost by City, in the sense I think they would win the rest of their games.

It would leave 3 games for a freak result. Burnley will be safe by time they play so I'd expect them to lose, Leicester are a decent team but you would have to back City at home at that stage of the season and then Brighton are shite and will probably have their fate sealed by the final game. Of course, it doesn't always work out like that, but I wouldn't be confident of them dropping points. To put it in to context, there is much chance as us dropping points in our last three as there is them - and everyone assumes we will win all our games.

I've had a feeling for a while now, if we win this league, it will be indirectly due to a United helping hand. Here is hoping.

[OneTouchFooty]

They surely can’t keep winning indefinitely, they all seem to be very tightly wound right now, had Lady Luck nudging them for a while, something has to give... huge derby in 3 days having to go again, who knows what’ll happen but fair fucks if they win them all now, it’s just unstoppable and won’t be a reflection on us at all. You can’t literally win every game.

[Crosby Nick]

Utd in 2000 won 11 straight to end the league.

I think they won in 2000 (and 2001) by very large margins so that run was pretty much pressure free in comparison to what Arsenal did, City are doing (and we are too).

[Crosby Nick]

Win today. Force City to go to OT and win. If they do that win our last 3 which means that after the high of beating their local rivals at their own stadium to put one hand on the trophy, they have to win out. As the front runners that is a nightmare scenario to be in. Horrible for us to be relying on City to blink, but given how good this City team are, a title win was always going to be right on the margins.

11 millimetres marginal enough for you!

That game is looking pivotal and we were pretty damn unlucky to lose it.

Mad what this season is doing to emotions. I’ve been convinced City will drop points somewhere in recent weeks. As each game ticks off I feel slightly worse after each of their games but need to snap out of it today. We just have to keep winning and believing we will win this. If we win all our games from here we’d be outrageously unlucky not to win it. Don’t want to give any fuckers the satisfaction of saying how we lost the league by not bearing Cardiff, Huddersfield, Newcastle or Wolves.

[Sharado]

11 millimetres marginal enough for you!

That game is looking pivotal and we were pretty damn unlucky to lose it.

Mad what this season is doing to emotions. I’ve been convinced City will drop points somewhere in recent weeks. As each game ticks off I feel slightly worse after each of their games but need to snap out of it today. We just have to keep winning and believing we will win this. If we win all our games from here we’d be outrageously unlucky not to win it. Don’t want to give any fuckers the satisfaction of saying how we lost the league by not bearing Cardiff, Huddersfield, Newcastle or Wolves.

You're dead right. I'm not having Warnock fucking euologized by other teams. Win today and make them earn the league, don't give it the c*nts on a platter.

[McSquared]

Let’s do our business today and put the pressure back on them. Come on Reds

[andy07]

Convinced this race is going to the last game when Brighton will need to avoid defeat to stay up.