There are 5 or 6 very winnable games coming up, and 5 or 6 that are tough. Our form for about the past 18 months is that we win most of the winnable games and we win maybe half of the others, especially at home. So based on that we have a decent prospect of 6 wins and a few draws and probably will do better than that. The other teams will also drop points. As regards 4th place if we get even 18 points, they need 25 from a possible 33. I just cant see that happening.
Yep.
Title talk to one side....
Let's say 76 points are needed for fourth. To get 76 points
Spurs need to win 8, draw 1, lose 2. (or better it obviously)
Form required would be something like the following...
Spurs v Cardiff
Chelsea v Spurs
Spurs v Arsenal
Spurs v Southampton
Liverpool v Spurs
Spurs v Sunderland
West Brom v Spurs
Spurs v Fulham
Stoke v Spurs
West Ham v Spurs
Spurs v Aston Villa Everton need to get 31 points. 10 wins 1 draw. Therefore something like
Everton v West Ham
Everton v Cardiff
Everton v Swansea
Fulham v Everton
Everton v Arsenal
Sunderland v Everton
Everton v Man Utd
Southampton v Everton
Everton v Man City
Hull v Everton*
Newcastle vs Everton (needs to be rearranged)
Man United would also require 31 points. So 10 wins. 1 draw.
West Brom v Man Utd
Man Utd v Liverpool
West Ham v Man Utd
Man Utd v Man City
Man Utd v Aston Villa
Newcastle v Man Utd
Man Utd v Hull
Everton v Man Utd
Man Utd v Norwich
Man Utd v Sunderland
Southampton v Man Utd
Liverpool require 6 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses to hit that 76 number.
Southampton vs Liverpool
Man Utd vs Liverpool
Cardiff vs Liverpool
Liverpool vs Sunderland
Liverpool vs Tottenham
West Ham vs Liverpool
Liverpool vs Man City
Norwich vs Liverpool
Liverpool vs Chelsea
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool
Liverpool vs NewcastleSome might say the form listed above for Liverpool at 1.81 points per game is too kind. But then look at the runs the others would have to go on to match that.
Take the number down to 73 allowing for one more loss for all the teams, then study the form required by all teams again- just turn ONE of those massive runs of green wins, into a red loss.
But not only do they get afforded one loss (so Man U would need to go win 9, draw 1, lose 1), we could ALSO then lose to any other team bar Spurs themselves, and Tottenham would still need to go 7 wins, 2 draw 2 losses - 2.09 points per game giving them a run in total of 23 points and finishing on 73. That's a 63% win ratio- Sherwood's current win ratio for Tottenham is 50% (in all comps I think though).
To get 73 we need 17 points.... 5 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses. Looking at our goal difference, then we can match a points total that any of the teams realistically can achieve and still finish ahead on goal difference, we have an extra 0.99 points than the table says.
Look at the run of fixtures they have. Think all of them will draw one more than I've suggested? Then that allows us another draw to our games.
Fuck it. I'm sticking my neck out. We'll finish fourth or higher, quote the shit out of me at the end of the season if we fail to do so.
Because if we don't, we won't deserve it and we'll have thrown it away. Which is what I think most of you are worried about rather than the perceived difficulty of our games. I watched this same team go to Chelsea/Man City - now we might have lost admittedly, but we gave them a game, we competed. We're looking at our fixtures are going on about the difficulty, but it's the Premier League, there are no easy games, everyone bar Southampton and Newcastle arguably have something to play for. Every team we are in the run in with, will have to play these so called teams with something to play for. Even at home, it's still a pitch, with two goals at either end- with teams battling to frustrate and get a point.
The fact we play Newcastle on the last day at home could also be of huge benefit to us come the end of the season- seeing as some of their players will have minds on the World Cup perhaps and they'll be stuck in mid table, perhaps not even able to move up a position.
What if 71 points makes fourth?
LFC can go 5 wins, 6 losses and make 71
THFC can go 7 wins 4 losses and make 71
EFC and MUFC can go 8 wins 2 draws 1 loss to make 71