This is the text (I think that it's all of it). There are a lot of tables and such too, but it would take an age to copy/paste all of that individually. Anyhow, for what it's worth:
Taísto
@TaistoFCB
Darwin Núñez is wanted by a bunch of top clubs & has been mentioned as a potential replacement for Lewandowski.
He isn’t a bad player & is useful in the right system, but there are too many red flags for him to function in a top side or his price tag to be justified.
[A Thread]
1:08 AM · Apr 16, 2022
Taísto
@TaistoFCB
·
Apr 16, 2022
On paper he looks great: goals vs Ajax, Barca, Bayern & Liverpool, 24 goals in the league & 32 in all comps.
His movement is decent, he’s tall, physically strong & very quick.
It’s only when you take a closer look, the cracks in the facade will appear
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Taísto
@TaistoFCB
·
Apr 16, 2022
The first major red flag that should send alarm bells ringing across major clubs, especially those that play possession-based football, is his sheer woefulness in possession.
Smarterscout only rates his Ball Retention Ability a 2 out of 99 (adjusted to Premier League standard)
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Taísto
@TaistoFCB
·
Apr 16, 2022
Additionally, his passing is dreadful, which is worrying, if you, like most top teams, want your striker to be at least decent at link-up play.
Núñez only completes 11.7 passes p90 in the Primeira Liga.
That would put him in the bottom 10% among forwards in Europe’s top5 Leagues
Taísto
@TaistoFCB
·
Apr 16, 2022
His measly 9 completed passes p90 in the CL would even put him in the bottom 1%.
His 64.7% Pass Acc in the league would put him in the bottom 15%. And again, his 56.5% in the CL would put him in the bottom 1%.
Imagine a striker in a top side misplacing basically every 2nd pass…
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Taísto
@TaistoFCB
·
Apr 16, 2022
As seen against Liverpool with his 2 disallowed goals, he has an extremely frustrating, Inzaghi-esque tendency to get caught offside basically every game [1.0 Offsides p90].
Since moving to Benfica last season, no player has been caught offside in the league more times than him
Taísto
@TaistoFCB
·
Apr 16, 2022
This demonstrates that, despite his game revolving around constantly making runs in behind, he doesn’t always time them that well.
And it’s questionable if he’d even have that many opportunities to run in behind in a possession-based top team, playing mostly against deep blocks
Taísto
@TaistoFCB
·
Apr 16, 2022
With his style of play & physical capabilities, he can be great in a pure counter attacking team, using his speed & directness in transition.
That’s why he has been so effective for Benfica in the CL this season.
But he simply won’t have that space to run into for most top sides
Taísto
@TaistoFCB
·
Apr 16, 2022
Another major concern is just how limited he is technically, which is probably a result of him always being able to rely on his pace & strength.
His touch often lets him down [3.4 Unsucc. Touches p90].
He under hits passes & at times doesn’t get a clean connection when shooting
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Taísto
@TaistoFCB
·
Apr 16, 2022
Along with his technique, his decision making, in particular in the final 3rd, can be quite hasty & generally suspect.
At times releasing the ball at the wrong time after decelerating.
Despite what his assist numbers might suggest, he isn’t a huge creator
https://twitter.com/Goncalovmmll/status/1512859791529500677/video/1
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Taísto
@TaistoFCB
·
Apr 16, 2022
Despite being 1.87m tall & strong, he doesn’t use his body that well & his hold-up play is inconsistent.
Whilst he scored a few uncontested headers, his heading technique isn’t perfect & his timing isn’t great.
He also only wins 1.1 Aerials p90 & has an Aerial Win Rate of 36.7%
Taísto
@TaistoFCB
·
Apr 16, 2022
A lot of those things point to the fact that he isn’t really a lone striker.
As shown by his heatmap, he loves to drift out wide & operate in the left channel.
Which is, why more often than not, he has been playing as part of a strike partnership or in off the left at Benfica
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Taísto
@TaistoFCB
·
Apr 16, 2022
Another concern is his injury record.
With his explosive style of play, he’s prone to muscle injuries, missing games here & there.
Worryingly, since 2017 he had THREE major knee injuries (incl. surgery). The last forcing him to miss the last 2 months of 20/21 & the Copa América
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Whilst he scored 24 goals in the league this season, 4 of them were penalties & 3 of them came against Belenenses, when they played the game with just 9 men, most of them from the u23s & a GK playing in defense.
(The game was abandoned after 3 Belenenses players went off injured)
That brings us to the most obvious & major red flag with him.
He scored those 24 league goals from just 14.92 expected goals.
You don’t need to be an expert to know that this kind of finishing overperformance is incredibly unsustainable & won’t carry over to his next club
For context: Óscar Estupiñán (Guimaraes), accumulated 13.47 xG. His market value is €3.5m.
Yet apparently Núñez is valued at €70m+, for 1.45 xG more, for a better team in the same league.
Due to that crazy overperformance, the buying club will just pay a heavily inflated fee
Some will lazily say "he’s just a good finisher".
They haven’t seen his 1st season at Benfica (where he underperformed xG), or his finishing technique.
Everything points towards his current season being a statistical anomaly & a one-off.
Hence it would be crazy to sign him now
Obviously many people will point to him being just 22 years old (23 in June).
And I do think he can be effective in the right system.
West Ham would’ve been a great destination for him, as he isn’t too dissimilar to Michail Antonio & they could’ve built the system around him
But I don’t see him being integrated into a possession based side. At the very least you wouldn’t be getting the best out of him.
And his overall quality doesn’t justify a top club changing its style of play & building a system around him to cater to his very specific strengths
ince this season is such a fluke & he won’t completely change as a player, this might already be his best ever season goals-wise.
You’d be buying him when his price is highest.
Despite his age, I’m not sure his potential is all that much higher than the level he currently is at
I’d say I would disagree with most of what’s said here. Or rather it’s highlighting the wrong negative sides of his football, the ones that’s not very relevant to focus one.
First I’m not sure if his possessions play is woeful. He’s not often involved in possession play. And that can be fine. Because he doesn’t have that role here. He’s a runner behind the line, not someone that drops deep to playmake.
Passing is not dreadful. At most times it’s ok, not smooth but ok. He can play some terrific passes combined with stiff leg passes that goes miles off.
They use amount of passes for data which I feels is the wrong one. As mentioned he’s not the type of player hugely involved in possession style football, more making runs and such. So number of passes completed per game is the wrong data type.
Also accurate passes should be lower when you are either making a run past defenders and trying to manage the ball, or being high up trying to control the ball with a defender tightly behind you. Once again not a data type is feel is that relevant.
Yeah I agree that being caught in offside was a bad part of his game. Haven’t looked at the data this season but I feel he’s improved here. Anyone that wants to correct me feel free to.
There’s doubt about his style of football suitable for a possession style of football and I’d agree to that. But looking at the amount of chances we’ve presided this season and the ones Darwin been involved with, and the previous season I just feel don’t that data is accurate here to describe his positives/negatives. He’s involved a huge number of changes we all know that.
Yes o agree there are some technical limitations, which I hope would be better.
But overall reading this comment just feels like a miss. The main problem with Darwin is his poor finishing. He’s never gonna be a Firmino type of player involved with the ball that’s much. He’s guy that stretched the defense with insanely good runs behind. The problem is that’s he kinda bad at finishing. If he could finish to the level of Halaand, Watkins, Isak, etc then he’d be on 25+ league goals by now.
