Topic: The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-15

[Prof]

Merry Christmas APLT fans 

[farawayred]

Thanks for the update Prof, happy Christmas to you too!

[Nessy76]

A huge day of APLT football coming up tomorrow with Tottenham hosting Man Utd and Chelsea's trip to Southampton, elsewhere Man City play Burnley who some will feel have a point to prove, while Arsenal travel all the way to West Ham.

Spurs v Man Utd is an APLT double-header. Tottenham need to win to make a par 3 and stay on -14, while Man Utd will be looking at the draw to keep them to par on -13. Utd have just 2 wins on the road this season, while Spurs have only won 4 of their home fixtures so far.

If Spurs win, Utd drop a point to -14.
If Utd win, they gain 2 (putting them on -11) and Spurs drop 3 (which leaves them with -16)
The draw leaves Spurs on -16 and Utd on -14.

Chelsea have a par 1 game at Southampton. A win for Mourinho's team would kick off the second half of the season with them 7 points ahead of their predicted 90 point par total. The draw would leave them on a very healthy +5, while even a loss would still have them racing away with the title on +4.

For the Saints, their inclusion into the APLT has proven a bumpy ride and this is probably the toughest Par 3 match in the calendar. An unlikely win would keep them in contention for a Champions League spot with a very respectable -10. The draw would see them down to -12, while a loss would have them on -13. A month ago St Mary's was a fortress, with the Saints not losing a home match until Arsenal visited on 3rd December. Since then they've lost another home match to Burnley as well as a cup game to lowly Sheffield United, so they may be feeling a little vulnerable.

Man City have a straightforward par 3 home match against Burnley and while the clarets might feel it is a game they can get something from, City need to win to maintain their title aspirations. The win leaves them on -4, the draw on -6 and a loss still keeps them comfortably in second place on -7. Burnley's only away win of the season to date came at Stoke in November.

Arsenal's opponents West Ham have made a good case for their own inclusion into the APLT this season, sitting fifth in the traditional table above APLT sides Tottenham, Liverpool and Arsenal themselves. The Gunners will be looking at the trad table themselves for this one, as a win would leapfrog them above the Hammers. Back in the APLT, the trip to Upton Park is regarded as a Par 1 game, and the formbook shows why. Sam Allardyce's team have won 6 of their 9 home games this season, with only Southampton and Tottenham recording wins, and Liverpool and Man City among the scalps taken.

The win for Arsenal would see them end the year on -12, the draw would keep them on -14 and a loss would drop them to -15.

Liverpool don't play until Monday evening, when the visitors are Swansea City. Again, eyes will be on the traditional table here, as Brendan Rodgers' old club currently sit 3 points above his current one. It's a Par 3 game as it's at home, and the Swans form away from Wales has been poor with only two wins to date; one on the opening day at Old Trafford and one against Hull earlier in the month. If the Reds get the win, it means sticking on -17, the draw sees us drop to -19 and a loss would bring us to the end of the year a devastating 20 points below par.

[Always_A_Red]

A huge day of APLT football coming up tomorrow with Tottenham hosting Man Utd and Chelsea's trip to Southampton, elsewhere Man City play Burnley who some will feel have a point to prove, while Arsenal travel all the way to West Ham.

A great summary there Nessy.

I don't know what everyone else is thinking but I want a Spurs win tomorrow. As you said, a win for Spurs and thy stay on -14 and then UTD would also drop to -14. The last thing we want is UTD running away from us and claiming 3rd early in the year with only one spot left to fight for with Spurs, Arsenal & Southampton. We have 4 winnable par 3's in a row with all of our rivals set to drop points. in that period.

Again, a loss for Southampton would be very the best outcome. It'll put pressure on them to perform when they do go to Old Trafford in a few weeks and hopefully take some more points off UTD. A loss would see them lose the points they gained at Palace and open the door for us to go past them in the coming weeks.

The Arsenal game is a bit of a tough one but I think I'd rather see a West Ham win than anything. Having said that its a win/win situation for us if West Ham draw as they will lose 2 points in the APLT and if we win we'll gain 2 points on them in the general table. An Arsenal win would be a disaster. 5 points in the APLT is a big gap to make up. Long term head on, I cant see west ham being a threat even if they do win, so I'd rather see a West Ham win and see Arsenal drop to -15.

Obviously all 4 of our next games are must wins so a win against Swansea and a confident performance at home would be a welcome end of year treat.

Best case scenario on Monday evening would see the APLT look like this:

Chelsea +7
City       -4
S'Ton     -13
UTD       -14
Spurs     -14
Arsenal   -15
Liverpool -17

I think we all know that there's some really tasty fixtures coming up on New Years Day too so come the 2nd January, the APLT will hopefully look much more promising (providing we can win our games!!).
 

[Ycuzz]

Prof and Nessy providing the good read in the midst of the hols. Thanks mates.

[Always_A_Red]

Update after today:

Chelsea +5
City       -6
S'Ton     -12
Arsenal   -12
UTD       -13
Spurs     -16
Liverpool -17*

*We still to play

Arsenal have really propelled themselves into a fantastic position with that win against West Ham today. City have basically thrown the title away with their draw at home to Burnley which saw them drop 2 points further away in the APLT. Despite UTD again failing to play well they hang on to draw away to Spurs to stay on -13. Spurs really needed a win and drop 2 points in the APLT. That could cost them come the end of the season.

Not the best results for us at all today and puts the pressure on us to get a result tomorrow. Drop to -19 or -20 and its well and truly game over. Lets pray to Fowler that 'better' Liverpool turn up.

[LionheartCFC]

Update after today:

Chelsea +5
City       -6
S'Ton     -12
Arsenal   -12
UTD       -13
Spurs     -16
Liverpool -17*

Knew Chelsea had played nearly all the big teams away, but didn't think the gap on this would be so big to City.

Still only 3pts in it on the league table, but this really is an interesting way of looking at things. What a bottle from City today, and against Stoke earlier in the season at home.

[Roger Federer]

City have basically thrown the title away with their draw at home to Burnley which saw them drop 2 points further away in the APLT.

I like this thread and the idea behind it, but I think this is a bit of an exaggeration. Sure, Chelsea have the upper hand, but I'd argue that the advantage isn't anywhere near as big as the APLT indicates. At the half way point it's only 3 points and City are anything but out of the title race, no matter what the APLT shows at this point.

[Deo]

City have a lot of hard games ahead, games in which they can actually make ground, while Chelsea have basically played most of theirs. Chelsea have 4 par 1's left, City have 8.

 Let's say Chelsea draw their 4 par 1's, and city draw 4 too but win the other 4, that'll put them 3 points behind Chelsea on the APLT, exactly as in the real table. And this is the fundamental idea behind the APLT, judging the difficulty of the games left. I wouldn't say City have thrown away the title, but they've lost a really good opportunity to pressure Chelsea. They still have a firm grip on one trophy ear, especially if they somehow win at Stamford Bridge, which would be a massive five point swing.

[Nessy76]

I like this thread and the idea behind it, but I think this is a bit of an exaggeration. Sure, Chelsea have the upper hand, but I'd argue that the advantage isn't anywhere near as big as the APLT indicates. At the half way point it's only 3 points and City are anything but out of the title race, no matter what the APLT shows at this point.

They are still in the race, but they need Chelsea to drop points in easy games to get back into it seriously. Chances are, that will happen at some point, but City now need some exceptional consistency to make the most of it.

[Always_A_Red]

I like this thread and the idea behind it, but I think this is a bit of an exaggeration. Sure, Chelsea have the upper hand, but I'd argue that the advantage isn't anywhere near as big as the APLT indicates. At the half way point it's only 3 points and City are anything but out of the title race, no matter what the APLT shows at this point.

City have a lot of hard games ahead, games in which they can actually make ground, while Chelsea have basically played most of theirs. Chelsea have 4 par 1's left, City have 8.

 Let's say Chelsea draw their 4 par 1's, and city draw 4 too but win the other 4, that'll put them 3 points behind Chelsea on the APLT, exactly as in the real table. And this is the fundamental idea behind the APLT, judging the difficulty of the games left. I wouldn't say City have thrown away the title, but they've lost a really good opportunity to pressure Chelsea. They still have a firm grip on one trophy ear, especially if they somehow win at Stamford Bridge, which would be a massive five point swing.

I think what people are forgetting is that Par 1's are Par 1's because they are extremely difficult games to win. Yes, City have more Par 1's but there's no advantage with that. There is only 'opportunity'. There's not one team in the APLT table who's not lost at least 1 Par 1 so far this season. Even City (who have only played 4) have lost 1. To say that City could play their final 8 Par 1's and win 4 and draw 4, is possible but highly unlikely. As you have pointed out, even in that scenario City would still be 3pts behind and that's suggesting that Chelsea won't win any of their remaining Par 1's either. You are both right in that there are scenarios where City could still turn it around and win the league but its not likely at all.

[supaerheraw]

I think what people are forgetting is that Par 1's are Par 1's because they are extremely difficult games to win. Yes, City have more Par 1's but there's no advantage with that. There is only 'opportunity'. There's not one team in the APLT table who's not lost at least 1 Par 1 so far this season. Even City (who have only played 4) have lost 1. To say that City could play their final 8 Par 1's and win 4 and draw 4, is possible but highly unlikely. As you have pointed out, even in that scenario City would still be 3pts behind and that's suggesting that Chelsea won't win any of their remaining Par 1's either. You are both right in that there are scenarios where City could still turn it around and win the league but its not likely at all.

Didn't City win a lot of par 1 games a couple of seasons ago when they were chasing the title? This is just based on a vague memory, but I believe it was the season when United lost a huge advantage and somehow messed up.

edit: seems it was just a vague memory..

[Nessy76]

Didn't City win a lot of par 1 games a couple of seasons ago when they were chasing the title? This is just based on a vague memory, but I believe it was the season when United lost a huge advantage and somehow messed up.

edit: seems it was just a vague memory..

It's always possible for a side to win any given selection of games, but winning lots of par 1 matches is extremely difficult and a team capable of that are unlikely to be dropping as many points as City have done in easier games.

If City play like typical champions from here on, they will finish on about 84 points. That's great form and would sometimes put you close to the title. The problem they have is that Chelsea have been playing far better than typical champions and look likely to end the season on 95 points or more.

So for City to turn it round, they need to go on a better than typical champions run of form AND hope Chelsea start to drop points. It certainly is possible, but the APLT shows that City are as far off Chelsea as we are off City.

[Prof]

Great debate this folks 

Man City have to make up 6 points to get back to the 90 points line.  Assuming they don't also drop further points.

Chelsea have a buffer of 5 points to end on 90 points.

Both swings are possible, but I'd assume the bookies won't have the likelihood of Chelsea winning the league as high as I do.  If I was a gambler, I'd have put significant money on Chelsea some time ago.

[Prof]

Chelsea 4/9.  I'd say that's generous.

[Prof]

[Hij]

Win vs Leicester would have us with 3 par results in a row for the first time right?

[Kochevnik]

What that all says to me is that this year, 65 points might have a chance (not a good one, but a chance) at top 4.  I think that should be our target for the rest of the season.

We're currently on 28 points, so we would need 37 points from our next 19 games.  That's basically 2 points a game, so we're back to the 3 wins, 1 loss, and 1 draw as the goal for each 5-game chunk.  That would at least give us an outside shot of top 4 at the end.  I think the odds are long but we do seem to be gelling a bit in this new formation and with Sturridge to return, who knows?

[slw614]

What that all says to me is that this year, 65 points might have a chance (not a good one, but a chance) at top 4.  I think that should be our target for the rest of the season.

We're currently on 28 points, so we would need 37 points from our next 19 games.  That's basically 2 points a game, so we're back to the 3 wins, 1 loss, and 1 draw as the goal for each 5-game chunk.  That would at least give us an outside shot of top 4 at the end.  I think the odds are long but we do seem to be gelling a bit in this new formation and with Sturridge to return, who knows?

You would be looking at us having lost 10, maybe even 11, games for that to happen by the end of the season. I can't see any side qualifying for the Champions League having lost that many games. Hence why I still believe that it will be a tough ask. Even if we improve second half of the season, I believe we have left ourselves too little room for error with visits to Stamford Bridge, Goodison Park and the Emirates still to come.

[Always_A_Red]

Update:

Chelsea +4
City       -6
S'Ton     -12
Arsenal   -13
UTD       -13
Spurs     -16
Liverpool -19

Happy New Year everyone!! 

[killer-heels]

Must be some sort of record swing this.

[Michel]

Forget about Top 4.We are too inconsistent.

[Prof]

[Always_A_Red]

Must be some sort of record swing this.

This was us this stage last year:

And this was the final standings at the end of the season 13/14:

Note that despite our incredible run in the 2nd half of the season, we only increased our APTL score by +3. As it currently stands, we are +6 behind both UTD & S'ton who occupy 3rd and 4th in the APLT. How I see it (im sure someone will be here to tell me im wrong) is that we are now relying on the other teams to have poor form and drop silly Par 3 points as well as ourselves going on an incredible Par run in the APLT to at least stand still. Top 4 is gone.

[TheShanklyGates]

Cheers for keeping this updated guys, despite the grim reading it makes every week at present

[sideshowme]

i'm still not sure i completely understand the predictive power of the APLT, but it seems that a final total of -6 doesn't really tell the whole story, seeing as we were up to -1 with three games to go.  that was actually quite a big improvement, wasn't it, ahead of what were two pretty freakish results?

obviously the final table never lies etc etc, but that monstrous run did actually result in a much bigger improvement than the final table suggests.

[Iska]

That's because (almost) everyone else's trajectory is downwards.  So if you put together a run of +X points over say a dozen games, you're generally not making up X points on your competitors, you're actually making up X plus Y points.  Y is the kind of natural wastage that happens because hardly anyone plays to the theoretical 90-points title-winning form.  The longer you continue your good run, the bigger Y will be.

Also if you look at us and City from week 15 onwards last year, we clocked in ultimately at +3 over 23 games - but they clock in at +4.  That's pretty heroic form, but it slips under the radar a bit because ours was so spectacular and mostly crammed into the back half of that period.

[Haresy77]

The proper league table doesn't lie and the APL table REALLY doesn't lie. No way back to the top 4 from here for us.

[Roger Federer]

Both swings are possible, but I'd assume the bookies won't have the likelihood of Chelsea winning the league as high as I do.  If I was a gambler, I'd have put significant money on Chelsea some time ago.

You'd still do that? Even after today's results, the APLT still says that Chelsea have a 10 point gap, but in the real one there's no difference at all. Even if you favour Chelsea, surely the advantage isn't as massive as the APLT implies it is?

[Haresy77]

You'd still do that? Even after today's results, the APLT still says that Chelsea have a 10 point gap, but in the real one there's no difference at all. Even if you favour Chelsea, surely the advantage isn't as massive as the APLT implies it is?

Based on the APLT's underlying assumptions Chelsea have the easier fixtures. You could get a 5 point swing in one weekend of fixtures... but doesn't happen very often.

[sideshowme]

That's because (almost) everyone else's trajectory is downwards.  So if you put together a run of +X points over say a dozen games, you're generally not making up X points on your competitors, you're actually making up X plus Y points.  Y is the kind of natural wastage that happens because hardly anyone plays to the theoretical 90-points title-winning form.  The longer you continue your good run, the bigger Y will be.

Also if you look at us and City from week 15 onwards last year, we clocked in ultimately at +3 over 23 games - but they clock in at +4.  That's pretty heroic form, but it slips under the radar a bit because ours was so spectacular and mostly crammed into the back half of that period.

i don't follow that at all.  i should really go back through the thread, but if you are bored enough to explain in a little more detail i would be very grateful

[Prof]

You'd still do that? Even after today's results, the APLT still says that Chelsea have a 10 point gap, but in the real one there's no difference at all. Even if you favour Chelsea, surely the advantage isn't as massive as the APLT implies it is?

Yes I would

8/11 now

No bet is without risks, so it's about looking for value.  From this position, Chelsea are much more likely to win the league than their odds imply.  Yesterday they dropped one point in the APLT, so has little impact on my view of their title chances.  Their odds at the bookies have been affected more because they've dropped three points.

How many times will Chelsea score 3 under mourinho and lose?

[Mahern]

This was us this stage last year:

And this was the final standings at the end of the season 13/14:

Note that despite our incredible run in the 2nd half of the season, we only increased our APTL score by +3. As it currently stands, we are +6 behind both UTD & S'ton who occupy 3rd and 4th in the APLT. How I see it (im sure someone will be here to tell me im wrong) is that we are now relying on the other teams to have poor form and drop silly Par 3 points as well as ourselves going on an incredible Par run in the APLT to at least stand still. Top 4 is gone.

Last season saw us make 8 on Chelsea, 11 on Arsenal, 12 on ManU, 13 on Everton and 17 on Spurs. We need to make 7 on Southampton and less on each subsequent team. That 7 could be us improving 4 and them dropping 3. A big ask, but not so big as last year - admittedly playing catch up while still searching for form doesn't inspire confidence!

EDIT: The APLT points gaps aren't too different to the real points gaps at this juncture. But we need to move now.

[Grobbelrevell]

Perhaps i'm an unrealistic optimist, but I still don't believe that "top four is gone". The rest are too inconsistent for that to be a certainty, and with Sturridge coming back in he offers the potential to bridge that gap. Still.

[joe ®]

The thing is, the Mancs and Spurs are putting together a bit of form while Southampton are coming back nicely from a run of very tricky fixtures. Meanwhile we aren't really arresting our decline much, if at all. Even with Sturridge back I don't think we shake off half a season's worth of poor performances. And who's to say he can manage to stay fit for the rest of the season anyway?

[Passmaster Molby]

Just started following this and it makes for VERY grim reading. Even our next two away games look extremely tough and they are listed as 3 point pars. I fear our chance of top four is gone now given we are showing no signs of any sustained recovery whatsoever.

[Grobbelrevell]

I fear our chance of top four is gone now given we are showing no signs of any sustained recovery whatsoever.

1 defeat in the last 11 now. I'd argue that suggests a recovery of sorts, albeit patchy in terms of overall performance levels and with too many draws. There are signs there that we're getting back towards something resembling our expected level though. The performances against Arsenal, Bournemouth, Swansea - even the Mancs to an extent, all were promising to excellent overall. The question is whether it's now too late for this season. I just don't think it is. Not definitively. Not yet. We retain the ability to put a run of results together and this season has shown that any side who can do that is bang in with a shout.

[redy]

1 defeat in the last 11 now. I'd argue that suggests a recovery of sorts, albeit patchy in terms of overall performance levels and with too many draws. There are signs there that we're getting back towards something resembling our expected level though. The performances against Arsenal, Bournemouth, Swansea - even the Mancs to an extent, all were promising to excellent overall. The question is whether it's now too late for this season. I just don't think it is. Not definitively. Not yet. We retain the ability to put a run of results together and this season has shown that any side who can do that is bang in with a shout.

No doubt about that. Everybody else is in such patchy form that any one who goes on a run will get it. there is the big hope. as unlikely as it is.

[Passmaster Molby]

If you break our league campaign into 4 blocks of 5 games, the number points taken in each block is 6, 8, 7 and 8 which shows there is no real push to improve. The next couple of months will also see us compete in 3 other cup competitions which will sap the energy from us as well.

I would love to be positive about our chances but my head tells me it's just not looking likely.

[Alistairlfc]

Perhaps i'm an unrealistic optimist, but I still don't believe that "top four is gone". The rest are too inconsistent for that to be a certainty, and with Sturridge coming back in he offers the potential to bridge that gap. Still.

Essentially though if this APLT is followed, now that we are at -19 we need to play at league winning form from now until the end of the season just to get to 71 points. I don't see that happening.