Topic: The Alternative Premier League Table 2014-15

[Nessy76]

Cheers Prof, hope you're feeling better.

As with the real table, at this stage it's dangerous to read much into gaps of a point or two, and it's all very tight between Liverpool, Arsenal, Spurs and Man United, and will probably stay that way for a while.

Southampton's great start to the season really stands them in good stead as they head into a run of very tough matches.

Everton must be gutted that they aren't playing the way they did last year, as they would surely be in with an excellent chance of a top four place.

[GregCharrua]

Its all looking a bit tight in the APLT with any Par 1 win or Par 3 loss able to swing a teams fortune massively. It just goes to show how big a result that Stoke win was for us. A draw would have left us on -14 and pretty much screwed but that Johnson winner has given us a chance. We usually get in situations like this around March/April but every result for us, UTD, Arsenal, Spurs and Southampton to an extent are massive. Who's going to crack and who's going to take this opportunity?! As I mentioned, losing a Par 3 whilst a rival wins a par 1 will pretty much end the challenge for the losing team. Lets have a look at what the weekend could do for the APLT....

The biggest game of the weekend for me in terms of the APLT is the game between UTD & Southampton. A win for Southampton will see them cement themselves on -6 (Par 3) but will drop UTD further down to -14 increasing the deficit between the two to -8. On the flip side though, if UTD manage to make it 5 in a row and snatch a win, we could see a 5 point swing with UTD climbing to -11 and Southampton slumping to -9 with only a -2 point deficit. Its a massive game for Southampton!! Make no mistake about it, a win for UTD would be horrendous for us though. In my opinion we need Southampton to win. I'm confident that they will be out of the top 4 come January as they have a number of really tough games coming up but this isn't the game what we need them to drop points because of the team that would gain. A loss for UTD here gives us a massive chance next week to go and really hurt them and dent their chances of the top 4. Lets all pray for a Southampton win.

City play Everton at home (Par 3) and Spurs host Crystal Palace (par 3). City you would think have to (and probably will) win to have chance of trying to catch Chelsea.

Chelsea travel to Newcastle who have just hit a dip in form so Chelsea will have a great chance of winning another Par 1. This would put them on +6 in the APLT, 8 points ahead of City, even if City won their own Par 3. Hypothetically, if City slip up and Chelsea win, we could see a gap of 10 or 11 between the top 2 in the APLT and at that point I'd be going to the bookies and putting my house on Chelsea to win the title.

Arsenal take a trip to Stoke with their own Par 1 opportunity. A win for Arsenal would see them climb above Liverpool in APLT regardless of the result in our game and put them right on track for the top 4.

Liverpool play host to Sunderland with hopes of a 3rd consecutive Par 3 save. Anything but a win would be a disaster. Thankfully we seem to have found a bit of form and I hope that continues on Saturday.

It'll be interesting to see what the APLT looks like at 10pm on Monday night. It'll either look very rosy or it'll look extremely depressing. Like I said at the start, who's going to crack and who's going to grab the opportunity?! I cant wait to find out!

Thanks, nice read.

[Deo]

Seems like this year's 4th place finish is going to be the lowest in a long time.

[Michel]

-14.Sad days.

[Iska]

Maybe we're all looking in the wrong place and it's actually going to be between West Ham, Swansea and Newcastle

[Deo]

^

And Southampton.

[Always_A_Red]

Chel    3
City    -4
S'ton  -6
UTD   -13
Ars     -14
Liv      -14
Spurs  -16

Southampton & UTD still to play. We need UTD to lose. If they win we're in serious trouble after todays result, as I related to in my previous post before this weeks fixtures.

[Hij]

Chel    3
City    -4
S'ton  -6
UTD   -13
Ars     -14
Liv      -14
Spurs  -16

Southampton & UTD still to play. We need UTD to lose. If they win we're in serious trouble after todays result, as I related to in my previous post before this weeks fixtures.

A draw and they are still only one ahead on this right?

[joe ®]

A draw and they are still only one ahead on this right?

Yes. With Southampton moving to minus eight.

While yesterday's performance wasn't that bad, IMO, the result is a real kick in the teeth after playing to par in the last couple of matches.

[killer-heels]

Depressing.

[RK7]

What sort of points gap is considered out of reach?

[RooiBefok]

What sort of points gap is considered out of reach?

Out of reach to what?

If Premier League Winners then anything below Par.

If Champions League 4th Place, then -19.

[Gonebay]

This is really depressing. We are too far behind par. What sorts of results we need over next 5 games to reduce the deficit?

[RK7]

Out of reach to what?

If Premier League Winners then anything below Par.

If Champions League 4th Place, then -19.

Sorry, I meant CL qualification and not how many points before it's out of reach but what sort of points gap between rivals. It is looking very likely that CL qualification wont need anywhere near as many points as normally required judging by how close everyone is to the -19 marker already.

[Nessy76]

This is really depressing. We are too far behind par. What sorts of results we need over next 5 games to reduce the deficit?

Four of our next 5 are Par 3 games, so the best we can so is win all five and we'll be on -12.

We aren't going to win the league, but that's not big news. The real question is who will finish in the top 4. If you think Southampton can really do that, then it gets tricky. Otherwise, it's two from us, Man Utd, Arsenal and Spurs. And this table has us only 1 point behind Man Utd, level with Arsenal and two ahead of Spurs. At this stage of the season, that's still far too close to call. We're still definitely in the race there.

Sorry, I meant CL qualification and not how many points before it's out of reach but what sort of points gap between rivals. It is looking very likely that CL qualification wont need anywhere near as many points as normally required judging by how close everyone is to the -19 marker already.

Yes, it looks very unlikely that we'll see four teams get over the 71 point line this time around. While it's easy to say we're struggling, and clearly we are, the good news is that the teams around us really aren't doing any better.

[Sudden Death Draft Loser]

Otherwise, it's two from us, Man Utd, Arsenal and Spurs.

West Ham and Southampton may have something to say about that.

[Nessy76]

West Ham and Southampton may have something to say about that.

I already mentioned Southampton. If you think West Ham are getting into the Champions League, then get to the bookies, you'll clean up.

[Sudden Death Draft Loser]

Four of our next 5 are Par 3 games, so the best we can so is win all five and we'll be on -12.

We aren't going to win the league, but that's not big news. The real question is who will finish in the top 4. If you think Southampton can really do that, then it gets tricky. Otherwise, it's two from us, Man Utd, Arsenal and Spurs. And this table has us only 1 point behind Man Utd, level with Arsenal and two ahead of Spurs. At this stage of the season, that's still far too close to call. We're still definitely in the race there.

I have us 4 points behind Man Utd, 2 points behind Arsenal, and level with Spurs. Then there's a 6 point gap to West Ham and a 5 point gap to Southampton.

[RK7]

Yes, it looks very unlikely that we'll see four teams get over the 71 point line this time around. While it's easy to say we're struggling, and clearly we are, the good news is that the teams around us really aren't doing any better.

So for arguments sake lets say Southampton, Newcastle and West Ham fall away. In your opinion what sort of gap between us and United would it take before we should be really worried?

I only ask because a few have said were be in trouble if United Win tonight but surely that can't be the case with the sides currently very close.



I just took a look at last years table in mid December and we were -7 whilst UNited and Spurs were both -13, at which point is was widely accepted that was too big of a gap for them to close.

[Sudden Death Draft Loser]

Anyone care to give a quick/simple explanation (for an idiot) of this "Alternative PL" stuff.

[xRedmanLFCx]

I already mentioned Southampton. If you think West Ham are getting into the Champions League, then get to the bookies, you'll clean up.

[xRedmanLFCx]

Anyone care to give a quick/simple explanation (for an idiot) of this "Alternative PL" stuff.

? From the OP:

For those of you who are new to the APLT, or those who need a reminder of the model, the APLT makes an assumption that in order to win the league title, a team needs to win 90 points for the season.  This can be achieved by winning all home matches, the seven ‘easiest’ away matches (the three promoted teams and the 14th-17th ranked teams from the previous season) and draw the 12 remaining away matches.  I refer to these as the ‘par results’.  As in golf, par will be achieved more often than not, but sometimes points are dropped or gained in relation to par.

So basically, its a method that takes the average (or best) expected result for each team each week and adjusts the table accordingly. That way its fair as it takes into account who you have played and not just what points you have.

[Michel]

Anyone care to give a quick/simple explanation (for an idiot) of this "Alternative PL" stuff.

The first post in this thread pretty much covers it all.

[McrRed]

Anyone care to give a quick/simple explanation (for an idiot) of this "Alternative PL" stuff.

Try the OP for starters though there are lots of helpful posts scattered about which clarify things further.

It really is a useful way to see beyond the hype and short-termism of the actual premier league table. [emoji4]

[RooiBefok]

In your opinion what sort of gap between us and United would it take before we should be really worried?

Prior to Man United’s game against Southampton this evening they are on -13.  If they win they move up to -11.  If they lose they drop to -14 and if they draw they remain on -13.

Assuming they win then they are on -11 compared to Liverpool on -14.

Man United then have a total of 9 Par 1 Fixtures remaining where they could pick up a further 18 APLT points putting them on +7.

Liverpool have a total of 7 Par 1 Fixtures remaining where they could pick up a further 14 APLT points leaving us on 0 (Par), still 7 behind Man United.

This assumes that Liverpool and Man United win their respective Par 1 matches when playing each other Home & Away and in accordance with the methodology of the APLT both Man United and Liverpool win their remaining Par 3 Fixtures.

However, given Man United’s upwards trend of late and Liverpool’s slow puncture, our chances of winning more Par 3 matches than Man United between now and the end of the season are rather remote.

So to answer your question, I would suggest that our horse has long since bolted unless Man United go walkabout again.

[Sudden Death Draft Loser]

Prior to Man United’s game against Southampton this evening they are on -13.  If they win they move up to -11.  If they lose they drop to -14 and if they draw they remain on -13.

Assuming they win then they are on -11 compared to Liverpool on -14.

Man United then have a total of 9 Par 1 Fixtures remaining where they could pick up a further 18 APLT points putting them on +7.

Liverpool have a total of 7 Par 1 Fixtures remaining where they could pick up a further 14 APLT points leaving us on 0 (Par), still 7 behind Man United.

This assumes that Liverpool and Man United win their respective Par 1 matches when playing each other Home & Away and in accordance with the methodology of the APLT both Man United and Liverpool win their remaining Par 3 Fixtures.

However, given Man United’s upwards trend of late and Liverpool’s slow puncture, our chances of winning more Par 3 matches than Man United between now and the end of the season are rather remote.

So to answer your question, I would suggest that our horse has long since bolted unless Man United go walkabout again.

So now i understand the APTL. It says what was (IMO) obvious from looking at the real table and watching us play. We ain't getting CL qualification this season (unless we win the damn thing).

[RooiBefok]

I already mentioned Southampton. If you think West Ham are getting into the Champions League, then get to the bookies, you'll clean up.

In terms of the APLT, West Ham are currently on -10 

[Sudden Death Draft Loser]

In terms of the APLT, West Ham are currently on -10 

 

[Always_A_Red]

Chel    3
City    -4
S'ton  -9
UTD   -11
Ars     -14
Liv      -14
Spurs  -16

Utd performing a miracle 5 point swing on Southampton. Can we do the same to them on Sunday?

A win for us would put us on -12 whilst dropping utd down to -14. A win for our biggest rivals would see us drop to -15 (4pts begind utd in the APLT). A draw may seem a bad result but if that were to happen we would both be on -14.

Big week of football coming up that's for sure

[Nessy76]

Prior to Man United’s game against Southampton this evening they are on -13.  If they win they move up to -11.  If they lose they drop to -14 and if they draw they remain on -13.

Assuming they win then they are on -11 compared to Liverpool on -14.

Man United then have a total of 9 Par 1 Fixtures remaining where they could pick up a further 18 APLT points putting them on +7.

Liverpool have a total of 7 Par 1 Fixtures remaining where they could pick up a further 14 APLT points leaving us on 0 (Par), still 7 behind Man United.

This assumes that Liverpool and Man United win their respective Par 1 matches when playing each other Home & Away and in accordance with the methodology of the APLT both Man United and Liverpool win their remaining Par 3 Fixtures.

However, given Man United’s upwards trend of late and Liverpool’s slow puncture, our chances of winning more Par 3 matches than Man United between now and the end of the season are rather remote.

So to answer your question, I would suggest that our horse has long since bolted unless Man United go walkabout again.

You're looking at the par 1 games as chances to gain APLT points, which of course they are, but they are also the games each side is least likely to win. In other words, our remaining games are easier than theirs.

Does us no good if we can't win the par 3 games, of course, but that is how the APLT works, neither side is at all likely to win even half of their remaining par 1 games.

[paddysour]

Wondering if anyone knows how common it is for a team to win 5 on the bounce and not finish top four?

[Nessy76]

Wondering if anyone knows how common it is for a team to win 5 on the bounce and not finish top four?

Palace did it last season, I'd guess it's fairly common.

[GregCharrua]

Wondering if anyone knows how common it is for a team to win 5 on the bounce and not finish top four?

As Nessy said, But a 7-8 game run is another matter I'd think.

[paddysour]

Wasn't it mentioned on here last year that a 7 game run was usually what title challengers did?

[Always_A_Red]

Wondering if anyone knows how common it is for a team to win 5 on the bounce and not finish top four?

Didnt Newcastle win 5 on the bounce a few weeks ago?

[Prof]

[technicallyandtactically]

This does make things seem a little better. If we can get through to January in a respectable position, get the strikers back, get rid of the dead wood, maybe make a signing or two. It's not all gone yet.

[La Ligapool]

This does make things seem a little better. If we can get through to January in a respectable position, get the strikers back, get rid of the dead wood, maybe make a signing or two. It's not all gone yet.

...or if you're pessimistic: We're in danger of all off of our own alt league before the New Year.

[Iska]

Can we get rid of Southampton already?

[Nessy76]

Can we get rid of Southampton already?

They were included in week 11, when they were still on 0 points. Since then they've dropped 12 in five games. They have Everton at home, Palace away and Chelsea at home in their next 3 games.  Those are all Par 3 matches, which means that they could end the year on anything from -12 to -21.