Topic: What’s Going On in the South China Sea?

[RojoLeón]

An argument over a few islands with the prospect of hydrocarbon resources is heating up between China and Japan.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senkaku_Islands_dispute

There seems to be some tough talking on both sides and with the potential to drag others into the spat: The US are deeply involved in the economies of both countries and will want this to pass without offense to both side.

China is a veritable global super-power and Japan's economy and national confidence is still reeling post tsunami/Fukishima disaster. That isn't to say that (though unlikely at this stage) if there is armed conflict that Japan would be pushovers; Japan has the ballistic missile tech and vast quantities of weapons grade Plutonium should they feel they had no other choice but to go nuclear. China knows this for sure and won't push things too far. That isn't to say they haven't been complicit in, or at least turned a blind eye to some anti-Japanese rabble rousing.

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20120919a1.html

Protests flare in China on contentious anniversary
The pretext for invasion 81 years ago fuels rallies in 125 cities
Kyodo

BEIJING/SHANGHAI — The anniversary Tuesday of a 1931 incident that paved the way for Japan's occupation of northeastern China further stoked anti-Japan sentiment across China, sparking protests in at least 125 cities where demonstrators denounced Tokyo's nationalization of the Senkaku Islands.

As armed police tightened security around the Japanese Consulate in Shanghai, about 7,000 protesters chanted slogans such as "Beat Japanese imperialism," "Boycott Japanese products" and "Destroy Japan and retrieve Okinawa."

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/china-japan-heading-towards-war-says-us-defence-secretary-leon-panetta/story-e6frg6so-1226475484583

China, Japan heading towards war, says US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta

CHINA and other Asian countries could end up at war over territorial disputes if governments keep up their "provocative behaviour", US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta has said.

Speaking to reporters before arriving in Tokyo on a trip to Asia, Mr Panetta appealed for restraint amid mounting tensions over territorial rights in the East China Sea and the South China Sea.

"I am concerned that when these countries engage in provocations of one kind or another over these various islands, that it raises the possibility that a misjudgment on one side or the other could result in violence, and could result in conflict," Mr Panetta said, when asked about a clash between Japan and China.

"And that conflict would then have the potential of expanding."

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2012-09/18/content_15764244.htm

The visiting US Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta is expected to appeal for Chinese restraint in handling the escalating tension with Japan over the disputed Diaoyu Islands during his meeting with his Chinese counterpart, General Liang Guanglie.

While in Tokyo, Panetta made a similar appeal to Japan on Monday, expressing the hope that the dispute be resolved in a peaceful manner.

Clearly, defusing the dangerous situation is in the United States' best interest - his country has nothing to gain from being dragged into an open military showdown with China by a bellicose Japan.

Yet leaving aside the fact that US military strategy is increasingly targeted at China as a potential enemy, the US has been playing a very negative role in the current turmoil in the East and South China seas.

The world constantly hears US appeals for restraint and negotiations over territorial disputes and we continually hear Washington proclaim that it is taking no sides in such disputes, yet behind the scenes it is clearly a different matter.

On his way to Japan, Panetta reiterated that his country is not taking sides in the dispute over the Diaoyu Islands. But, then on Monday, after his meeting with Koichiro Gemba, the Japanese foreign minister, Gemba told the press that the Diaoyu Islands are covered by the security treaty between Japan and the US.

Panetta should clarify why, if the US does not have a position in the dispute, his country seems to have extended coverage of the security treaty, meant to protect Japanese territory, to include the Diaoyu Islands, which are legally Chinese territory as the US well knows.

This is important particularly because the dispute over the Diaoyu Islands is essentially a US-made legacy of World War II.

The US' intentional blindness to the illegal nature of Japan's claims to the islands and the ambiguity they are intentionally trying to bring into the dispute are hypocritical. And including the territory into the US-Japan security treaty violates a core Chinese national interest.

Panetta's visit is supposed to be part of the US' alleged commitment to peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific. But he is going to have a lot of explaining to do to convince China of this and successfully achieve his stated goal of deepening the military-to-military relations between the US and China.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/world_now/2012/09/us-ambassador-to-china-surrounded-by-protesters-car-damaged.html

U.S. ambassador to China caught in Beijing protest; car damaged

BEIJING -- The car of the U.S. ambassador to China was surrounded Tuesday by a small group of demonstrators who damaged the vehicle and briefly prevented it from entering the U.S. Embassy compound in Beijing.

A YouTube video of the incident showed the protesters chanting slogans such as "down with the U.S. imperialists" and, in an apparent reference to the Chinese government's purchase of U.S. government debt, "return the money!"

The five-minute video shows a black car approaching the embassy and attempting to turn into the gate. As demonstrators surround the vehicle, several dozen Chinese police and uniformed guards rush to the scene. Several water bottles are thrown at the car and one man can be seen banging on the hood of the vehicle.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/9551727/Beijing-hints-at-bond-attack-on-Japan.html

Beijing hints at bond attack on Japan
A senior advisor to the Chinese government has called for an attack on the Japanese bond market to precipitate a funding crisis and bring the country to its knees, unless Tokyo reverses its decision to nationalise the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands in the East China Sea.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/chinese-cyber-attacks-hit-japan-over-islands-dispute/article4553048/

Chinese cyber attacks hit Japan over islands dispute

At least 19 Japanese websites, including those of a government ministry, courts and a hospital, have come under cyber attack, apparently from China, police said Wednesday.

Many of the websites were altered to show messages proclaiming Chinese sovereignty over the Diaoyu islands, a Japanese-administered chain Tokyo calls Senkaku, the National Police Agency (NPA) said in a statement.

http://ibnlive.in.com/news/china-steps-up-military-air-force-drills-in-tibet/292129-2.html

China steps up military, Air Force drills in Tibet

Beijing: Amid a raging dispute with Japan over islands in East China Sea, Chinese army has scaled up its military exercises on all fronts including aerial drills by its air force in Tibet as well as by special forces.

Special operations forces from the PLA have began an annual set of military drills aimed at training reconnaissance capabilities and survival skills, state-run CCTV reported.

While its naval forces in the East China Sea practiced capture of islands, state media here carried picture of Air Force planes flying over Himalayas in a formation.

(not that this is any way related - curious and tragic timing)

http://news.yahoo.com/japans-ambassador-designate-china-dies-tokyo-ministry-043340035.html

Japan's ambassador-designate to China dies in Tokyo: ministry

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's ambassador-designate to China, Shinichi Nishimiya, died on Sunday in a Tokyo hospital, the Foreign Ministry said, three days after he was found unconscious on a Tokyo street.

Doctors were looking into the cause of death, ministry official Takashi Ariyoshi said in a statement, but no other details were available. Nishimiya, 60, was found unconscious on a street near his home on his way to work.

Nishimiya was to have left in mid-October to take over from Uichiro Niwa as Japan's top envoy in Beijing.

While coincidental, Nishimiya's death came as tensions flared up between Japan and China over a disputed group of islands in the East China Sea claimed by both countries.

[RojoLeón]

Nice summary and analysis, Tom. Cheers for the insights about the Tokyo governor also - he sounds like a megalomaniac.

[xavidub]

Oh good, just what the world economy needs, a crisis between two of the largest economies in the world.

[xavidub]

I just had reason to spend a lot of time watching chinese tv, and the protests against japan are being covered extensively and in an inflammatory manner. The central government in China definitely wants rhis one to run and run

[eirwen]

My (Japan-based) understanding is that it's a bit of a balancing act for them. On one hand, it's in their interest to have an "other" that people can vent against rather than against the Communist Party, especially at a time of high exposure and vulnerability (the leadership change). They are usually quite happy for the people to vent against Japan. On the other, they don't want it to get to a stage where they can no longer control their own cities or where it pushes Japan-China relations too close to the brink. But I could be wrong. Would be interesting to hear a Chinese perspective on this.

I would say that it's correct in general.

This time though, from the scale of protests many people are suspecting the government is not only encouraging it but they are the ones who started them. Many pictures taken and rumors suggest a lot of the protesters are in fact policemen/government workers in disguise. Many are also not local and transported from elsewhere. There are some intense power struggles in the communist party right now, as China faces a leadership change next month. There are many groups in the party who could have started this for their own benifits but we don't know for sure which side.

The whole thing is about politics, from both countries. In the end, nothing will happen really as neither can risk going to war. The governor of Tokyo is a rightwing nutjob but unfortunately right wing extremists do have a certain power in Japanese politics. As for China, I just hope this does not damage future movements for democracy but it probably will. The current regime probably won't last much longer but what happens after that is both exciting and scary.

[khalilur]

 

The only solution I can see is that Japan and China make some kind of an announcement to defuse the tensions. Maybe some kind of agreement on joint exploration of the resources.

It's a situation nobody wants except the cranks, but it's the kind of stupid thing that can lead to wars.

If Japan already owns them, won't a joint exploration be suicidal for the Japanese Govt in domestic political terms? It's like acknowledging that China do have legitimate claims to the rocks. Won't this make the Japanese right wing more rabid? 

[The Gulleysucker]

This is undoubtedly a complex issue with a degree of associated historical baggage and I'm unsure quite what the solution will be.
I expect there is a high degree of nervousness around that region as to the outcome though, as the area claimed by China does seem somewhat immense.....

from beeb

[khalilur]

This is undoubtedly a complex issue with a degree of associated historical baggage and I'm unsure quite what the solution will be.
I expect there is a high degree of nervousness around that region as to the outcome though, as the area claimed by China does seem somewhat immense.....

from beeb

This is actually just ridiculous. I'm not sure under what basis they are claiming all these territory as geographically they are sooo far away. Just look at the map. Some of the areas claimed are just off the coast of the South East Asian countries! The South East Asian countries are the ones with a more legitimate claim but because China is a big military power, they think they can do whatever they want. Also since the South East Asian countries do a lot of trade with China, China can easily intimidate them with economic sanctions or some crap like that.

[jooneyisdagod]

This is undoubtedly a complex issue with a degree of associated historical baggage and I'm unsure quite what the solution will be.
I expect there is a high degree of nervousness around that region as to the outcome though, as the area claimed by China does seem somewhat immense.....

from beeb

That is ridiculous.  How the hell do you lay claim to any area you just see fit ? 

[eirwen]

I'm not sure how geographical closeness has to do with anything. Many countries have overseas territories.

I don't think any of those disputes will escalate to actual wars. It will be eventually settled through negotiation, probably many years later.

[eirwen]

You're right in that many countries have overseas territories, but there is a distinction to be made between laying claim to something that is overseas and undisputed and something that is overseas and logically part of another country. The Senkakus are a war legacy from a war the Japanese lost. Just like Sakhalin, which can be seen from the northernmost point of Japan, is a war legacy from a war the Japanese lost. In my opinion the Japanese have a case for owning Sakhalin and the Chinese have a case for the Senkakus. The Falkland Islands is another one that comes to mind. Should they really be British? I think there is a strong argument that geographical closeness matters.

Again, on your point about this coming to nothing, I hope you're right.

I agree with you on those two specific islands. But in almost all land disputes, it will come down to keeping the status-quo IMO. So even if China has a more legitimate claim to the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands, the fact is Japan controls them now.

Falkland would be more complicated as people actually live there. I believe in self-determination in those cases.

I'm confident it will come down to nothing. Even though there are many extremists/crazy people out there, I believe there are far more sane people and they wouldn't want war. There will be tension of course, as China continues to try to gain more influence in the region and push US out.

[RojoLeón]

One other thing to consider regarding the 'crisis' as things stand, is that it is also a useful distraction from domestic troubles for the Japanese government. They are deeply unpopular and facing regular public demonstrations of dissent: They protesters are polite and decorous about it but they are also very angry. There have been regular, large protests across Japan and particularly Tokyo: People are seething about the way TEPCO and the government have/are handling the post Fukishima disaster and there is a groundswell of support for decommissioning all nuclear facilities.

TEPCO are lying through their teeth at every stage of the way, while the government flip-flops between pandering to hostile voters and powerful business and energy lobbies.  The islands dispute may be a convenient and diplomatic way to distract people away from (arguably) more pressing issues like the hot reactors; their continuing releases of radionuclides and the 'discovery' of  unsafe levels of radioactive contamination across the country.

Meanwhile, in China..






Japanese department store in China

[RojoLeón]

I don't see it as a "useful distraction" for them Rojo. It's more like another nail in their coffin. The anti-nuke protests you describe are real--I've been on them. Tepco is Tepco. They are trying their best to look after their own interests. But you need to understand that they are no better or worse than anyone else in the establishment, including the DPJ. The recent announcement of an aim for zero percent of nuclear energy by the 2030s was absolutely driven by these protests, and as you point out the Keidanren are powerful and lobbying against it. The DPJ has already acted in a way that contradicts their initial statement.

But, and this is a big but, the Senkaku thing is not a positive distraction for the DPJ. It's more pressure on them. Ishihara is targeting them. So is that other loon out of Osaka. And the LDP are arch-enemies, out to get them. They know that the DPJ has to respond on this, so they are pushing the buttons.

These are all fair points and I do appreciate the insights. So, the islands are being 'engineered' to provoke a government response that backs them into a corner, and the political interests waiting in the wings (once the unpopular DPJ go), are those more amenable to the business lobby?

Personally, I think the DPJ represented a chance to improve Japanese politics, but they fucked up big time. Starting with Hatoyama and his ridiculous commitment re: the US base in Okinawa, followed by the caustic and corrosive presence of Ozawa, then the unfairly malaligned Kan, and most recently with Noda, who is carbon-copy LDP all the way.

I suppose my main point is this is in no way a positive distraction for the DPJ in the same way as it might be for the Communist Party.

It's a shame how things turned out - I had hoped that the Japanese would provide the model for post-nuclear disaster response. Kan seemed initially to have a grasp of the required urgency but fell away under overwhelming criticism (and I agree that, with hindsight, he seemed up to the job and was better equipped to deal with Tepco). Weak government pleases no one and doesn't get anything done. Strong megalomaniacs get things done but oft against the interests of the common people.

I agree with you about being worried about this - I had misread it as being political opportunism on both sides and I can't see this turning out well.

And from the Chinese Communists perspective, they would do well to be careful regarding giving those restless young men too much of a taste for mob violence - if they lose control of it then they could be the next ones in line for a bit of mob rule. China is doing a balancing act of their own between tight governmental control and barely contained (and on a vast scale) corruption. If they slip economically or have a significant downturn in production, there will be many hungry mouths in those numerous, tightly packed factory cities of theirs.

[RojoLeón]

I like Japan very much, even though some aspects of their philosophy seems impenetrable to me at times. Friends of mine live in Tokyo and I look forward to visiting them again soon. One aspect of Japan that intrigues me the most is their facility for getting things done with a high level of technical accomplishment - some of their engineering and systems design have set the bar globally. Their ability (post war, under heavy economic and resource restrictions) to become a global leader in high technology and industrial manufacturing is a thing of inspiration - one of the planet's 20th century success stories (a nod to the Germans and their impressive economic performance also).

What perturbs me recently is the corruption that has stagnated economic performance. Also, the wanton disregard for public safety post Fukishima. The policies of distributing radioactive waste throughout the country and incinerating it is baffling as much as it is suicidal - it makes things much worse than before.

I have high hopes for the ability of the people of Japan both to overcome any difficulties and once again show the rest of the world how it can be done. They would do well (imo) to adopt and further innovate sustainable energy technologies along with techniques for food production. Currently, they are world leaders in power-plant turbine and other high spec engineering production: They could help us all out by bringing their intelligence and application toward solving some of these problems. And a post nuclear Japan can't survive with just oil or gas.

Sorry for going off topic - i don't know enough detail about the politicking going on in Japan to fully comment of the personalities involved, but I fully appreciate your grasp of what is going on. Thank you for the reading recommendations - I'll definitely get them on the reading list. 

Lets hope this gets sorted without tensions getting ratcheted up to the point of open conflict!

[Fat Scouser]

What's going on... it's bollocksed, that's what's going on. The trade wars have started. The armed ones usually follow close on their heels. But who cares when there's real news to be heard. Strictly come dancing is back on the beeb. Those nasty French people have printed the pictures of Kate's tits. Victoria worked a little black number at the latest fashion show, so vote for David Beckham to get a knighthood. And god forbid a few knobheaded footy fans shout a few nasty words at each other today. We'll never hear the end of them.

In all honesty, I'm as ignorant of the China/Japan situation as any other force fed propaganda dupe. But then, like most of them, I've got things closer to home to worry about, like keeping a roof over me families heads and keeping us all fed, clothed and warm. What was that old hippy saying from the 70's... think globally, act locally. Simplistic nonsense, probably so. But then, I'm a simple man.

[Red James]

What's going on... it's bollocksed, that's what's going on. The trade wars have started. The armed ones usually follow close on their heels. But who cares when there's real news to be heard. Strictly come dancing is back on the beeb. Those nasty French people have printed the pictures of Kate's tits. Victoria worked a little black number at the latest fashion show, so vote for David Beckham to get a knighthood. And god forbid a few knobheaded footy fans shout a few nasty words at each other today. We'll never hear the end of them.

The media gives the stories the people want to hear. Do people really want to hear depressing news on a possible war between two countries on the other side of the world sparked by some extremist bastards at the detriment to the average joe? Do people care? Or would they rather think things are getting better in the world?

Sure it's fucking awful what's happening but the average person in Britain would rather not listen to more depressing news on top of what's already happening in this country.

[RojoLeón]

The media gives the stories the people want to hear. Do people really want to hear depressing news on a possible war between two countries on the other side of the world sparked by some extremist bastards at the detriment to the average joe? Do people care? Or would they rather think things are getting better in the world?

Sure it's fucking awful what's happening but the average person in Britain would rather not listen to more depressing news on top of what's already happening in this country.

Do people really want to hear about depressing but true things? Or would they prefer to hear about fantasies of how things are great, but are a pack of lies?

Why do people take drugs/alcohol, watch TV or whatever their 'escape from reality' of choice is?

I understand the sentiment. I do it to myself every now and again - I watch films, get drunk (less and less now, but still), read books and chat about inconsequential stuff with my friends and loved ones. Does the bad things stop happening?

The escapes are there if you want them - for me it is just as dangerous to get bogged down in the harshness of reality as it is to try and escape from it all the time. Don't read the bad news if it bothers you, but don't pretend it isn't happening either.

And yes, people care: Because China kind of makes all/most of your shit that you need to escape from reality with:

Your 4G mobile, your PC, your flat screen TV, your iPad, your iPod, your designer clothes, your FIFA, your Xbox/PS3: Built with sweatshop labour in factory cities packed with desperate kids your age. The lucky ones that don't kill themselves have permanent workplace injuries or are maimed by the age of 30. And you think this shit doesn't really effect you? 

You know about the riots at FOXCON http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/25/business/global/foxconn-riot-underscores-labor-rift-in-china.html?_r=0
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/09/24/video-the-foxconn-riot/

The online postings were from a disturbance late Sunday that shut down a manufacturing facility in Taiyuan in north China, where 79,000 workers were employed.

State-run news media said 5,000 police officers had to be called in to quell a riot that began as a dispute involving a group of workers and security guards at a factory dormitory.

The unrest was noteworthy because the factory site is managed by Foxconn Technology, one of the world’s biggest electronics manufacturers and an important supplier to companies like Apple, Dell, Microsoft and Hewlett-Packard.

But don't worry, this didn't halt shipments of the iPhone 5, so all is good with the world once again. If shit really kicks off with China and Japan we are going to be directly affected - make no bones about it.

[Red James]

How would the west react if in a worst case scenario China and Japan pulled out their toys and went to war? Japan doesn't really have a proper military since WW2 does it, unless I'm mistaken. Since Japan is a stones throw away from China then the Japanese people would be at a massive risk if China invaded the mainland.

Would the USA pick sides? Would it intervene at all considering the economic ties with China and as was just mentioned, how nearly all our shit is made in China.

[RojoLeón]

How would the west react if in a worst case scenario China and Japan pulled out their toys and went to war? Japan doesn't really have a proper military since WW2 does it, unless I'm mistaken. Since Japan is a stones throw away from China then the Japanese people would be at a massive risk if China invaded the mainland.

Would the USA pick sides? Would it intervene at all considering the economic ties with China and as was just mentioned, how nearly all our shit is made in China.

China won't land invade Japan - Japan has top of the range guided missile tech: They could shoot down or torpedo any sea or air attack. Also, although isn't discussed openly very often, Japan has dormant nuclear capability. They have a shit loads of weapons grade Plutonium, and the ability to manufacture and arm missile war heads within a few months if needed. China knows this for sure.

On the other side, China could render Japan uninhabitable with one bomb into Fukishima - parts of China would be left pretty hot (forever) also, but would be a one shot kill.

So, the fight will be economic and lots of tubs will be thumped. Japan will close or pull business out, and China will covertly make web attacks and overtly ride the public wave of anti-Japanese sentiment. The USA will privately negotiate like mad in the hope that the argument doesn't heat up, while publicly trying to not take sides.

Isn't good to see such posturing though, and the Chinese people definately are restless - too much slack in the state leash while the economy is slow. If it gets out of hand domestically, I wouldn't rule out the Communist party trying to deflect blame elsewhere. But, like any good wholesome group of power elites, they want to keep the flow of Champagne, Coke and Hookers steady - as long as civil unrest doesn't threaten that supply chain, then this should blow over.

[Fat Scouser]

The media gives the stories the people want to hear. Do people really want to hear depressing news on a possible war between two countries on the other side of the world sparked by some extremist bastards at the detriment to the average joe? Do people care? Or would they rather think things are getting better in the world?

Sure it's fucking awful what's happening but the average person in Britain would rather not listen to more depressing news on top of what's already happening in this country.

Do you really believe that?

I suppose a lot of people would rather think loads of drunken, ticktless Scouse thugs, pissed on bizzies 23 years ago, than it could possibly any fault of our wonderful police service. But then, shouldn't telling the truth be the main aim of any news agency, at least over what the last, throwaway celebrity wore to the latest gala opening of an envelope.

Come on now mate, that's pure cack, that cack I can't really believe you actually believe it.

[Red James]

Do you really believe that?

I suppose a lot of people would rather think loads of drunken, ticktless Scouse thugs, pissed on bizzies 23 years ago, than it could possibly any fault of our wonderful police service. But then, shouldn't telling the truth be the main aim of any news agency, at least over what the last, throwaway celebrity wore to the latest gala opening of an envelope.

Come on now mate, that's pure cack, that cack I can't really believe you actually believe it.

No not really thinking on it some of it was rubbish. But we all know most media, especially newspapers, are utter rubbish in this country and what I'm getting at is that the media will put out stories that sell more. Which is more popular, latest goings on in the south China sea concerning islands most people couldn't point out on a map or the latest Wills n Kate shocking story? The only way it would get more coverage is if it did get hot and then it would concern us all a lot more.

[kcbworth]

Bit worrying this...

[gazzam1963]

Bit worrying this...

It's four years old , have there been new developments ?

[Iska]

International Court ruled yesterday, unsurprisingly, that China's claims are a nonsense.  Equally unsurprisingly, China refuses to accept the court's jurisdiction and says the judgment is a nonsense.