The situation at a population level is complex - there's so many moving parts - to the extent that what you've pointed out isn't quite as illogical as it sounds.
At an individual level many of us, if not most, have never had greater protection against severe disease/hospitalisation/death as we have now. 49% of the population aged over 12 in England have had a booster dose, plus of course many people have an immune response from previous infection (majority from delta, some of whom from omicron).
However there is still a significant proportion of the adult population that have not received a single dose of the vaccine, and/or had a previous infection. In addition there are many people who are (to use the clunky wording) clinically vulnerable, including those who require social care such as the very elderly, who may not have been able to mount a strong immune response from their vaccinations.
As we all know, those of us who are fortunate to have been vaccinated and have the immune protection from the worst of the disease do not live our lives in parallel to those who haven't. Whether that's friends or family who are immune suppressed, or elderly relatives who require residential social car or any number of other situations. At any time of year, it's difficult to keep those who have COVID (without symptoms) from mingling with people who are more vulnerable to severe outcomes.
In addition to many of us never having been better equipped to fight off infection - or, if infected, avoiding severe disease - we have also never experienced the vast number of infections that are occurring now, and will occur in the coming few weeks. By pure maths, with the level of transmissibility of Omicron (plus its ability to infect those who have previously had covid, and/or who have had two vaccine doses), COVID infections will be reaching those that are more vulnerable to severe outcomes whether there were restrictions like a national lockdown or not.
This wave of omicron infections is not something that any government measures could have avoided happening - it was always a case of when, not if, omicron took off here. I would imagine that - alongside the feasibility (of being adhered to) and the dumb politics considerations - any potential restrictions will occur after Christmas. This will be to try to slow down the speed at which COVID reaches those most vulnerable to it (and, with that, those most likely to require hospital treatment). It can only have a limited effect on the overall wave, but if it delays a large enough proportion of people requiring hospitalisation for some days/weeks then it could be the difference in ensuring quality emergency care can be provided (versus the capacity of the health system falling down).
Make no mistake, lockdown after Christmas won't prevent this wave of infections. If restrictions are implemented, they will have the goal of slowing the spread of omicron infections, so that hospitals can try to provide effective treatment to everyone requiring hospitalisation.
So it's a complex picture because, at a personal level (10 days after my booster) I am fortunate to be relatively well equipped to handle an infection without severe outcomes if that were to occur. But that doesn't mean that I can take myself out of the equation for how this works at a population level. I am keen to avoid infection purely so that I don't unintentionally pass it on to someone else, who may unintentionally pass it on to someone else, who may work at a care home. Even with relative perceived safety at an individual level, with exponential spread of infections it wouldn't take long for infections to reach someone not so safe.
KEY POINT (Whether it's for yourself, or for a loved one/acquaintance/colleague): there's never been a better time to have a first dose of vaccine - you won't be subject to any shame or stigma from people administering doses, they would be delighted to see you and also to discuss any reservations you may have. Or if you know someone hesitant in a similar boat, there's never been a better time to dust yourself off and re-try engaging with them and hearing out their concerns, while politely sharing factual information in response.
That’s a really good post. I think many are still focusing too much on how many people are wearing masks, should we use venue passports etc. As you say, this type of measure isn’t going to prevent completely what omicron can potentially throw at us. If it’s as bad as some data suggests, it will happen anyway. If it’s not as bad as some data suggests, those measures won’t have been the reason it didn’t happen. The reason will be solely down to the characteristics of omicron along with the level of population immunity.
So should we all stop wearing masks? Well no, that’s something that benefits us an individual - giving us some additional level of protection against picking it up and starting a chain of transmission through our contacts. But it can’t prevent it spreading through the population, it’s just not a measure capable of that.
Anything coming in now to combat the worse scenarios that omicron can potentially bring (those that could have a population level effect) are only those that can either stop chains of transmission in bulk (a March 2020 lockdown) or delay a cliff edge of transmission within the vulnerable groups that’s means they don’t get the standard of care due to sheer numbers (guidance that prevents enough transmission over the holidays). That transmission you would prevent in the later will most likely happen anyway but just delayed or staggered a bit.
That all sounds a bit ominous and depressing but isn’t meant to be. The things we do to protect us as individuals like mask wearing etc are still as relevant and useful now to ourselves as pre-omicron, but it’s thrown such a curveball at us that population level measures become key. Once it’s passed, the individual level measures become dominant again. Can covid throw us another curveball like omicron once it’s passed? I’m not sure it can - on a population level. It might do on an individual level, chipping away at our vaccine or infection immunity, but not causing the kind of rapid increase in severe disease thats the worry with omicron. That’s assuming of course that omicron will do that, we’re at the precise point where we find out if it will. I guess the debate is what do you do if that outcome is possible, likely, highly likely or inevitable? We’re not at inevitable yet, but far beyond possible.
