Fair play, royhendo mate, very interesting pieces these and I can appreciate the amount of work that’s gone into them. Very good points made as well.
It’s certainly something that’s not easy to do, moving from what we can call Level One football onto Level Two and finally to Level Three. The final step is by far the most difficult one, I reckon, and we’re certainly having trouble with it at the moment if the amount of long balls we’re constantly playing, coupled with our indifferent performances thus far, are anything to go by. We’re certainly far from playing like Arsenal or United every match and, for that matter, Rafa’s Valencia.
If I could just use his Valencia team (one which I admired greatly at the time and still do) as an example, I do believe it has always been Rafa’s plan (and continues to be, in spite of the fact that we’re not there yet) to have Liverpool playing to that third level. We can look at his time in Valencia for a parallel here.
In 2001/02, his team won La Liga thanks to a ridiculously stubborn defence, with only 27 goals conceded by far and away the best defensive record in Spain that year. Yet they only scored 51 times, far less than the four teams who finished behind them. The title victory was based on a strong defensive base, with goals snatched on the break their usual means of victory. They rarely scored more than twice in a game that season, and it could be said that they played a very Level Two style.
Flash forward two years to their next league triumph in 2003/04, and a marked difference could be seen. They scored 71 goals that season in La Liga, 71, a huge increase on their previous title-winning effort. Even more impressive, the goals against tally remained exactly the same, 27. In other words, Rafa had recognised the need to expand his team’s “possibilities,” no longer ONLY relying on the best defence in the business and the odd goal snatched on the break. Now Valencia were simply awesome, one of the best teams I’ve seen in the past fifteen years, and had the powers that be backed the manager properly, they would only have gotten better.
In other words, Valencia moved up through the levels of which we speak during Rafa’s time in charge, and improved impressively along the way. It’s a good example of what we’re talking about, and it’s clear that the plan has been (and still is) the same at Liverpool.
Consider this. In Rafa’s first season at the club, we scored 52 and conceded 41. Quite alarming on both counts, but particularly defensively. Teams who concede anything over 30 goals in a season generally don’t challenge for League Titles unless their attack is truly gifted. So the goal was, at first, clearly to improve defensively to the point where we could soak up pressure and snatch goals on the break.
At Liverpool, however, Rafa wasn’t taking over the bones of a team that had been to two Champions League finals in a row. He was taking over a team who had finished thirty-odd points behind Arsenal the previous season, one laden with dead weight, so it was going to take longer to get there than it had at Valencia. Under the circumstances, a fight for fourth place was all we could expect. The Champions League was beyond our wildest dreams, and a good sign of the improvement that was imminent.
That improvement did come. The following season, we scored 57, a slight improvement, but our defensive capabilities went through the roof, only 25 conceded, a reduction of 16. We began to win games 1-0, snatching goals on the break, our defence our main asset. We finished on 82 points from 38 games, a tally that would have been enough to win La Liga in each of the seasons Valencia did it (with 75 and 77 points respectively).
But while there were similarities to his time in Valencia (not as much money as his rivals being a big one), things were tougher in England. He was still rebuilding a squad, whereas in Valencia, he had had quite a few of Cuper’s twice Champions League finalists. In addition, while Barcelona were in transition and Real Madrid becoming a circus in Spain, his two main rivals in England (Man. United and Chelsea) were not only able to vastly outspend him, both clubs were being run well on the pitch. So these improvements didn’t look quite as impressive. Yes we won the FA Cup, but we were still only good enough for 3rd in the League.
The following season, his third at Liverpool, was something akin to Rafa’s second in Valencia, where failure of the club to adequately back the manager in the transfer market led to a 5th place finish. At Liverpool, Rafa spent £20m+ on transfers in the summer of 2006, but all they got him were cheapish risks - Bellamy, Pennant, Aurelio, Gonzalez. Meanwhile, Chelsea and United (already in possession of deep, quality squads) got Shevchenko and Ballack, and Carrick respectively. The competition was incredibly fierce, more so than it had been in Spain, and unable to buy the quality of player he wanted, Rafa’s team remained rooted in Level Two. Our passage to yet another Champions League final showed, however, that the qualities which allowed Rafa to lead Valencia to that first league title in 2002 with a strong defence and little else were still there.
And so we come to last season, and finally Rafa was able to field a team with a more acceptable number of what you could call Level Three players. Bellamy was replaced with Torres, Gonzalez with Babel, Mascherano came into midfield. I don’t believe it is any coincidence that our goals tally was the highest it has been under Rafa. Sure, Torres scored over 20 league goals, that was a huge contributory factor. But I also believe that the higher quality of player allowed us to play a bit more Level Three and a bit less Level Two. Suddenly, while our goals against record remained fairly static at 28, our goals for tally jumped dramatically to 67.
These stats make interesting reading if you compare them with his time at Valencia:
1st Season
Valencia 51 (For) 27 (Against)
Liverpool 52 (For) 41 (Against)
2nd Season
Valencia 56 (For) 35 (Against)
Liverpool 57 (For) 25 (Against)
3rd Season
Valencia 71 (For) 27 (Against)
Liverpool 57 (For) 27 (Against)
4th Season
Valencia N/A
Liverpool 67 (For) 28 (Against)
I believe that Liverpool are following the same pattern as Valencia did back then, though understandably a season / season and a half behind. Three seasons after he joined Liverpool (UEFA Champions League Final 2007), Carragher, Finnan, Gerrard and Riise were the only players left since his arrival who still regularly played for the club (Dudek would soon be on his way, Kewell rarely played). Valencia, meanwhile, had ten of the Champions League runners-up of 2001 who still played regularly when they took to the field for the 2004 UEFA Cup final.
In other words, though Rafa had had little enough to spend (in comparison with his rivals) during his time at Valencia, he had never had to rebuild an entire squad. Players like Canizares, Ayala, Pellegrino, Carboni, Baraja, Aimar, Sanchez, Vicente, Aurelio and Albelda had all been there in 2001. This was the spine of the team, Rafa only had to give them the tactical base to succeed and add the right mix of new players like Mista, Marchena and Rufete to the mix. At Liverpool, on a limited budget, he had to build almost from scratch, trying to reconcile the need for a deep squad with the need for top quality players without ever being extravagantly flush like Ferguson or Mourinho. It’s little wonder that the club hasn’t yet reached that third level.
But I believe it’s coming. I believe that it’s always been Rafa’s plan, even if he might have another name for it. He did it at Valancia, he’s trying to do it here. But with the quality of player at his disposal from the start in Spain, it was easier. At Liverpool, it’s been trickier. After all, how do you play Level Three football with Biscan, Smicer, Baros, Traore and Nunez in the side (2005)? Or maybe Pennant, Bellamy and Gonzalez (2007)? True, Rafa bought a fair few of these players himself, but that was symptomatic of a manager trying to build a squad with a limited budget, thereby taking a few creative risks that didn’t come off.
The point is that, last season, Rafa had more quality players in the team than at any time since he got here, and the result was that we played more Level Three football than we had before. We finished on 76 points, again comparable to what Rafa's Valencia amassed in their two title-winning seasons in Spain. Players like Agger, Mascherano, Gerrard, Skrtel, Babel, Torres, these are players that have the qualities to play like that. Now Keane has been added, and he’s still pushing to sign more before the transfer deadline. The more quality you have, the more chance you have of attaining that third level, and I think we’re getting there.
One worry, however, is that amount of long balls we persist in playing. I don’t understand this, and it’s something that I hope irons itself out as the season progresses and players like Robbie and Nando, Mash and Stevie begin to gel as a unit. As the confidence gets better, hopefully the football will improve. Long ball teams don’t play level three football, that’s for sure, yet that is what we need to strive for if we’re going to win the title. Here’s hoping we succeed.