https://kassiesa.net/uefa/data/method5/ccoef2024.html - if Leverkusen had lost England would already be in second place but, as it now stands, it's a race between Bayern/Dortmund/Leverkusen and ADFC/Arsenal/ourselves with Villa and West Ham as a bonus free hit for England.
Italy are not out clear yet either although it would take quite a collapse to be passed out by both Germany and England...
So, with Arsenal facing Bayern and West Ham facing Leverkusen it looks like these will be the key to the 2nd place in the rankings - should the English Teams prevail they would overtake Germany and it would be down to Dortmund (against Atletico) to increase Germany's score. Against this you have AD115, ourselves and Villa to add to England's score but if Germany stays ahead going into the finals then they are likely to stay there (as that would probably involve Bayern knocking out both Arsenal and AD115).
To recap, the gap between Germany and England is currently 0.107 with Italy a further 1.357 ahead and guaranteed a further 0.71 by virtue of Roma and Milan meeting each other. A win for a German or Italian Team will add 0.28 to their score and a win for an English Team will add 0.25. A draw or reaching the Semi or Final will add 0.14 / 0.125 respectively. At present
Italy has
17.714 points. The maximum additional points they can get is 4.57 (12EL + 10EL + 12ECL / 7) -
22.28Germany has
16.357 points. The maximum additional points they can get is 4.57 (12CL + 10CL +12EL / 7) -
20.927England has
16.250 points. The maximum additional points they can get is 6.375 (12CL + 5CL + 12EL + 10EL + 12ECL / 8 ) -
22.625France has
14.750 points. The maximum additional points they can get is 6 (12CL + 12EL + 12ECL / 6) -
20.750Spain has
14.437 points. The maximum additional points they can get is 3.375 (12CL + 10CL + 5CL / 8 ) -
17.812Czech Republic can only reach 16.250 points which is not enough for 2nd place at this point.
Of course, not all countries can get the maximum at the same time but the advantage Engalnd has is that they are the only country still in all three competitions so more likely to spread the points.
