Topic: The PL run-in

[El Lobo]

We can finish above them again but it takes us having a perfect season and them to fall away because even a near perfect season wasn't enough in 18/19.

Also, one advantage in the previous two seasons that after City we had nobody else to worry about. Now Chelsea are a threat again and it's only a matter of time until a billionaire or oil state take over United or Arsenal.

Make no bones though, missing out on the CL sets us back years.

I know people have been commenting for years, but honestly can you just give your 'the world is falling' shtick a rest for a little while?

[killer-heels]

Not just directed at you but who were the two available centre-backs that would have allowed us to play the same way as we did with Van Dyck and Gomez/Matip?

Kabak has been more than useful for us. Even if we could have signed him earlier, it could have helped and probably would have. It was a bizarre decision to try to secure signings so late in the window.

[redk84]

We can finish above them again but it takes us having a perfect season and them to fall away because even a near perfect season wasn't enough in 18/19.

Also, one advantage in the previous two seasons that after City we had nobody else to worry about. Now Chelsea are a threat again and it's only a matter of time until a billionaire or oil state take over United or Arsenal.

Make no bones though, missing out on the CL sets us back years.

I don't think we have to have a perfect season...those couple of seasons where City were getting around 100 points and we were too - sure. We both were at insane levels then

Last season and this season City have been 80-90 points...that is gettable. Will they go up a level? who knows...but that 80-90 point level sure we can aim for that too, so can others that you mention. That is the usual benchmark for a champion anyway

And I don't think it will set us back years not making CL for one season. Maybe for a couple seasons then yeah...our recruitment can still be good even if we don't have CL this one summer, then again I don't think we need to make wholesale changes this one transfer window

More importantly imo, we need to get everything else straight with the players we have and want to keep/tactical tweaks - thats our main battle

[Fromola]

I don't think we have to have a perfect season...those couple of seasons where City were getting around 100 points and we were too - sure. We both were at insane levels then

Last season and this season City have been 80-90 points...that is gettable. Will they go up a level? who knows...but that 80-90 point level sure we can aim for that too, so can others that you mention. That is the usual benchmark for a champion anyway

And I don't think it will set us back years not making CL for one season. Maybe for a couple seasons then yeah...our recruitment can still be good even if we don't have CL this one summer, then again I don't think we need to make wholesale changes this one transfer window

More importantly imo, we need to get everything else straight with the players we have and want to keep/tactical tweaks - thats our main battle

City had a slow start though, like many without the pre-season, and have been able to ease off in the league in the run-in while prioritising Europe. When they put the hard yards in they won 18 out of 19 games from Christmas to March.  That's with Aguero out all season pretty much (who they'll obviously replace).

That's the 3rd season in 4 they've won 18 out of 19 games in the league.  We also achieved it last season (we won something like 26 of our first 27 games, so they just couldn't keep touch).

Had we kept our defence fit though I think we'd have minimum run them close this season and could have won it. Question is, how much this season has taken out of us physically (particularly with the long term injured) and mentally/psychologically. It took 5 years to build up the great mentality we had. The late collapse we've seen in games like Newcastle was reminiscent of the side Klopp inherited.

[redk84]

City had a slow start though, like many without the pre-season, and have been able to ease off in the league in the run-in while prioritising Europe. When they put the hard yards in they won 18 out of 19 games from Christmas to March.  That's with Aguero out all season pretty much (who they'll obviously replace).

That's the 3rd season in 4 they've won 18 out of 19 games in the league.  We also achieved it last season (we won something like 26 of our first 27 games, so they just couldn't keep touch).

Had we kept our defence fit though I think we'd have minimum run them close this season and could have won it. Question is, how much this season has taken out of us physically (particularly with the long term injured) and mentally/psychologically. It took 5 years to build up the great mentality we had. The late collapse we've seen in games like Newcastle was reminiscent of the side Klopp inherited.

Ok.
So every team goes through ebs and flows each season, that is the way it is - they can deal with it better having more resources I've already admitted - their winning streak this season coincided with a lot of teams struggling more than them because of the pandemic for example. The other two seasons were part of their best ever points haul (and all champions have long winning streaks or a couple good ones) so don't think its the standard to set them on is the point im trying to drive at here - much like it isn't a standard we are being judged by anymore

*That is not saying they/we could not have another outlandish season again like the ones where we were knocking on 100 points*

80-90 points is achievable.
In the last 4/6 seasons City have been there - with all their money and with all their Guardiola.
We don't need to be perfect to beat them.

[killer-heels]

Ok.
So every team goes through ebs and flows each season, that is the way it is - they can deal with it better having more resources I've already admitted - their winning streak this season coincided with a lot of teams struggling more than them because of the pandemic for example. The other two seasons were part of their best ever points haul so don't think its the standard to set them on is the point im trying to drive at here - much like it isn't a standard we are being judged by anymore

*That is not saying they/we could not have another outlandish season again like the ones where we were knocking on 100 points*

80-90 points is achievable.
In the last 4/6 seasons City have been there - with all their money and with all their Guardiola.
We don't need to be perfect to beat them.

Id take 80 points if offered it right now for next season. It would be a really good points haul. It would probably get us at least second.

Id move the 'floor' to 75 points. Anything below that, considering our resources, would be an underachievement.

[El Lobo]

80 points would be a great achievement, and 74 would be dreadful

[Jookie]

I don't think the narrative of this season over the 1st 90-95% of games fits with us winning out from here on in and other results going our way so we miraculously finish 4th.

Its a season where we've been hit by injuries throughout the campaign. One gut punch after another. Injuries that started as a consequence of 2 horrific challenges in the Goodison derby. It's one that has spiralled from there.

It a season where we've been on wrong end of inconsistencies with the use of VAR and some shambolic refereeing at time.

It's a season where a few of the players who've managed to stay fit have fallen off a cliff performance wise. Probably as a consequence of the schedule and fatigue brought on back lack of rotation due to the injury pile up but nonetheless not many players have covered themselves in glory.

It's a season were we've been knocked out the FA Cup by United and not turned up when faced with a shot of revenge against a Real Madrid team that beat us in a CL Final in controversial circumstances a few years earlier.

If our own woes weren't enough then it's a season where City win the league and League Cup. Chelsea probably win the the FA Cup. City or Chelsea win the Champions League and United win the Europa League. It's hard to choose a more horrifying list of winners that is realistic.

Like I said the narrative of this season probably dictates United end our slim CL hopes on Thursday night -  a game in itself that we've got thin end of the wedge due to fixture rearrangements caused by opposition fans getting one of games postponed. I wouldn't be surprised if we conspire to qualify for the Conference League -  the worst option out of Europa League or no European involvement in 2021/22.

Fair play to anyone who still holds out any hope for this season. I'm normally an optimistic fella but I've had enough with this season. Draw a line underneath it, make some changes in the summer and go again next year. Hopefully in the Europa League, if not CL.

[Jookie]

Id take 80 points if offered it right now for next season.

Probably depends how  we view this summer. Will Klopp start a rebuild or tweak, get the team back together and have 1 final shot with the majority of this squad. So many factors to consider. Particularly with how we deal with contract extensions and how that plays out with it's knock on effect to potential sales.

In saying all that, 80 points next season would be a good achievement and one that would get Top 3, probably 2nd. I think we can do better than 80 points but equally wouldn't be surprised if we are more like a 70-80 point team who qualifies easily for CL but in 3rd or 4th. A lot will be dictated by how the returning players do and if others (Robertson, Mane, Firmino, Trent) can return to top form with the required consistency.

[killer-heels]

80 points would be a great achievement, and 74 would be dreadful

Yes, a difference in points does make a difference to whether a season is good or not.

[Stockholm Syndrome]

Id take 80 points if offered it right now for next season. It would be a really good points haul. It would probably get us at least second.

Id move the 'floor' to 75 points. Anything below that, considering our resources, would be an underachievement.

Looking at the PL table for this year 74 probably gets you top 4, where as 80 likely puts you in title contention.

I can quite easily see us getting in the 80's next season, quite easily. Although top 4 would be considered a success whatever points we have, given that it is an immediate improvement and bounce back from this year.

I wouldn't bite your hand off for top 4 as I believe we should get is no problem injuries permitting, but it would be a successful season

[El Lobo]

Yes, a difference in points does make a difference to whether a season is good or not.

Honestly love the idea, before a ball has been kicked, that 6 points is the difference between a great season and an appalling one without even knowing what the points would have actually helped us achieve

[B0151?]

It's just all about momentum as much as anything in terms of title run

City had an amazing run that has won them the title. Two patchy runs of form either side it, granted you might say performances dropped because the title seemed sewn up, a better team than United applies more pressure

If we have a quality balanced team to go with our quality manager who knows what we could do

[LallanaInPyjamas]

Personally think any talk or hopes of a title challenge next season need to be reigned in.

It could happen, of course it could; we've got an amazing manager, some amazing players, and we should have at least some fans back in the ground on a consistent basis. But you have to look at City and Chelsea right now - and to a lesser extent United - and say momentum is massively with them. They're not conceding many goals at all yet still creating a decent amount of chances, and their squad depth is scary. We're not blessed with that and there are huge question marks regarding our defence, which makes it almost impossible to win a title, as well as whether some of our amazing players have gone past their peak.

If we miss out on top four this season - which I personally think is almost certain to happen - then our only real starting aim for next season should be to get back in it and go from there. I agree with other posters that we will. I think the alleged 'Big Six' has real potential to reduce to a 'Big Four' in the next few years, if it hasn't already, with us, United, Chelsea and City moving above the rest. There will always be sides like Leicester and Everton - and Spurs and Arsenal obviously - with potential to sneak in if one or more of those four teams perform below their level, but if they don't then their par should be too good to be matched. The fact that the bookies had us as a 50/50 shot to make the top four as of yesterday despite us being absolutely terrible for half of the season tells us that.

[killer-heels]

Honestly love the idea, before a ball has been kicked, that 6 points is the difference between a great season and an appalling one without even knowing what the points would have actually helped us achieve

Points targets are a good barometer though. If we say miss out of CL football by getting 66 or 67 points and next year we qualify it with 69 points then it shows that our results were generally similar.

Of course if we have another injury hampered season then this one then all bets are off, but would we see progress as one more win next year than this one? Maybe progress in terms of a few points but relative to the squad we have?

[LallanaInPyjamas]

Of course if we have another injury hampered season then this one then all bets are off, but would we see progress as one more win next year than this one? Maybe progress in terms of a few points but relative to the squad we have?

Definitely not.

Two points per game is always the yardstick I would use for a side to be considered a consistently good one - this season that would only apply to City, probably United, and Chelsea since Tuchel took over.

Falling short of 76 points with this group of players is failure.

[redk84]

I've made a case for us being able to take out City next year
But I don't expect anything yet, for me its far too early and the off-season is far too important.

I'm pretty sure we'll get back into top 4 atleast...but who knows
Min. points target I'd agree with above poster, 2ppg should be base for this team

[PeterTheRed ...]

Personally think any talk or hopes of a title challenge next season need to be reigned in.

It could happen, of course it could; we've got an amazing manager, some amazing players, and we should have at least some fans back in the ground on a consistent basis. But you have to look at City and Chelsea right now - and to a lesser extent United - and say momentum is massively with them. They're not conceding many goals at all yet still creating a decent amount of chances, and their squad depth is scary. We're not blessed with that and there are huge question marks regarding our defence, which makes it almost impossible to win a title, as well as whether some of our amazing players have gone past their peak.

If we miss out on top four this season - which I personally think is almost certain to happen - then our only real starting aim for next season should be to get back in it and go from there. I agree with other posters that we will. I think the alleged 'Big Six' has real potential to reduce to a 'Big Four' in the next few years, if it hasn't already, with us, United, Chelsea and City moving above the rest. There will always be sides like Leicester and Everton - and Spurs and Arsenal obviously - with potential to sneak in if one or more of those four teams perform below their level, but if they don't then their par should be too good to be matched. The fact that the bookies had us as a 50/50 shot to make the top four as of yesterday despite us being absolutely terrible for half of the season tells us that.

For all the hype, Chelsea are 7 points ahead of us, having played a game more. Once Van Dijk, Henderson, Gomez and Matip are back, we are easily the better team. So, it will be between us and Man City for the title next season ...

[killer-heels]

For all the hype, Chelsea are 7 points ahead of us, having played a game more. Once Van Dijk, Henderson, Gomez and Matip are back, we are easily the better team. So, it will be between us and Man City for the title next season ...

Laughable assessment that. Did you see which clown was managing Chelsea for a lot of this season?

[abhred]

We need to be aiming for a title challenge next season. We’ve endured a tough 4-5 months. Things can change quickly. I wouldn’t take 80 points right now if it didn’t mean a title.

[El Lobo]

Laughable assessment that. Did you see which clown was managing Chelsea for a lot of this season?

Exactly, they're a phenomenal team and along with 5 or 6 others mean we may well be scrabbling around 7th again next season.

[PeterTheRed ...]

Laughable assessment that. Did you see which clown was managing Chelsea for a lot of this season?

The present clown is not much better. They will be lucky to finish 3rd next season. Stop worrying about them. LFC and Man City are by far the best teams, with the best managers in the PL ...

[killer-heels]

The present clown is not much better. They will be lucky to finish 3rd next season. Stop worrying about them. LFC and Man City are by far the best teams, with the best managers in the PL ...

He is clearly levels above Lampard, which isn't hard and that's what hampered their points total.

I am not worrying about them, I wouldn't swap our squad with theirs, but trying to use their current points total as justification to why they are not a top side (a points total compromised by a clown) is a bit off. They are very much a threat for us and City next season.

[farawayred]

The present clown is not much better. They will be lucky to finish 3rd next season. Stop worrying about them. LFC and Man City are by far the best teams, with the best managers in the PL ...

Not too sure about that, Mac. Chelsea have a pretty damn good team and they won't be stopped to buy more quality players. First team when all fit we'd edge them, but it's a close call between them and us if we miss a regular or two. And Tuchel is not exactly a mug, he's better than people give him credit for, not Klopp/Pep level, but not two classes below.

[tubby]

The present clown is not much better.

Tuchel is 'not much better' than Lampard?  Come on dude.

[PeterTheRed ...]

Not too sure about that, Mac. Chelsea have a pretty damn good team and they won't be stopped to buy more quality players. First team when all fit we'd edge them, but it's a close call between them and us if we miss a regular or two. And Tuchel is not exactly a mug, he's better than people give him credit for, not Klopp/Pep level, but not two classes below.

Their team and their manager are heavilly over-rated. Without any significant injuries, they failed to beat Southampton, Leeds and Brighton recently, and were trashed at home by WBA. They are a good cup team, but that's it. They are not in the same class as LFC and Man City ...

[PeterTheRed ...]

Tuchel is 'not much better' than Lampard?  Come on dude.

One of the worst clowns around. I would be shocked if he is still in charge at Chelsea in the summer of 2022 ...

[tubby]

One of the worst clowns around. I would be shocked if he is still in charge at Chelsea in the summer of 2022 ...

That's not an outrageous claim because Chelsea have a habit of burning through managers and Tuchel has a habit of getting arsey with people.  But to say he's not much better than Lampard is a stretch.  He's taken two different teams to CL finals two years in a row.

[El Lobo]

Think there's a middle ground here between Peters 'Chelsea and Tuchel are dreadful' and KHs 'Chelsea are amazeballs' opinions!

Got some good young players, no-one really stand-out and their recent signings actually still pretty disappointing.

[sinnermichael]

Chelsea obviously have good depth, mainly in midfield and wide attacking areas. I still don't particularly rate any of their defenders and they're certainly not winning the league without a top class striker. I'd expect Abraham and Giroud to both leave.

[PeterTheRed ...]

Think there's a middle ground here between Peters 'Chelsea and Tuchel are dreadful' and KHs 'Chelsea are amazeballs' opinions!

Got some good young players, no-one really stand-out and their recent signings actually still pretty disappointing.

In normal circumstances, Chelsea will probably be fighting with Man Utd for the 3rd spot, until Tuchel loses it completely again. So, they are not dreadful, but they are certainly not in the same class as LFC and Man City under Klopp and Guardiola ...

[Oskar]

Tuchel isn’t a “clown” and is a much better manager than Lampard.

Chelsea are still probably a top class CB and number nine away from challenging from the league. I’m not sure Mendy is good enough either, and they’ll need much more from Werner and Havertz. But they’ve got a good manager, Tuchel’s downfall up until now has been that he has a tendency to fall out with the people above him so it will be interesting to see what they do in terms of recruitment this summer and whether he’s happy with whatever new signings he’s given to work with.

[disgraced cake]

Chelsea are decent but how can you look at everything that's happened to us this season, and compare how the sides have performed in the last 3 years and think they're on our level? Incredible disrespect to everything we've done in recent seasons. Once we get our injured players back, we do have to recruit well in the summer and add a few more quality players, which I think we can do. I also refuse to believe we can lose as many points as we have done through shite referees and VAR nonsense. Maybe I'm being naïve though. Oh, and fans back. No six straight home losses. I'd be disappointed if we lost six across the next three seasons actually. If it's the Europa League we're in then we can take it easy in the groups, so that means not having to use the likes of Van Dijk or Henderson twice a week for the first half of the season. Everything about this season has been desperately shit, the team included for the most part, but some of the shouts I've heard are wild. Context is needed. A few great players and servants will likely leave too, but it isn't the end of the road. There's a lot to build and re-build upon.

Attitude of the support is key, too. We need to march into next season with the last one firmly out of mind. It's been a load of shite but we're almost at the finish line. Support and believe.

[Fromola]

Laughable assessment that. Did you see which clown was managing Chelsea for a lot of this season?

If Lampard wasn't sacked City would be sealing the quadruple in two weeks. Instead Chelsea have stopped that and could still beat them in the CL. That's all from a change of manager. I said earlier in the season Klopp could win the league with that Chelsea squad.

That being said, we've seen Di Matteo win the CL and FA Cup from a mid-season appointment. Hiddink made a big impact mid-season, Rafa won the Europa League. Avram Grant even reached the CL final after taking over during the season. We don't know how he'll do over a full season, but they're capable of giving City a run for their money on all fronts, especially if they spend big again.

[killer-heels]

Think there's a middle ground here between Peters 'Chelsea and Tuchel are dreadful' and KHs 'Chelsea are amazeballs' opinions!

I never said they were amazing.

[LallanaInPyjamas]

The present clown is not much better. They will be lucky to finish 3rd next season. Stop worrying about them. LFC and Man City are by far the best teams, with the best managers in the PL ...

You clearly haven't been watching football since January. They're a good team with a good manager and ridiculous squad depth; all the signs are that they will be right in the mix next season.

[jillcwhomever]

They will have to make hay while the sun shines Chelsea. It’s certainly possible they will challenge but few Chelsea managers last long. Also Tulchel has a habit of falling out with those around him. In short, anything is possible. We need to concentrate on ourselves not worry about the sports washing enterprise or this other lot. Sort our transfers early get our usual pre-season underway and away we go. We won’t be far away from either of these.

[farawayred]

One of the worst clowns around. I would be shocked if he is still in charge at Chelsea in the summer of 2022 ...

Now, that's virtually a safe bet...

[Dave McCoy]

Why sign 2 defenders in the last week of the window if they weren’t good enough to make any difference? haven’t our results improved since signing Kabak has enabled us to okay Fabinho in his preferred role? It’s nonsense to suggest there weren’t players available on the market, there always are and our scouting department has proven time and time again than we can find talent which is under the radar, we just weren’t prepared to act decisively and that is on the leadership at FSG.

Good enough for what though?  Retain the title or top 4?  And no our results did not improve with Kabak at first.

As far as scouting, I think the post mortem internally on this season would be interesting to hear.  You have transfers and depth pieces that Klopp couldn't or wouldn't play.  Phillips was not a transfer for instance yet he played him once a month until he seemingly had no other choice.  Fabinho/Hendo did not necessarily ever have to play as CB.

[Dave McCoy]

Personally think any talk or hopes of a title challenge next season need to be reigned in.

It could happen, of course it could; we've got an amazing manager, some amazing players, and we should have at least some fans back in the ground on a consistent basis. But you have to look at City and Chelsea right now - and to a lesser extent United - and say momentum is massively with them. They're not conceding many goals at all yet still creating a decent amount of chances, and their squad depth is scary. We're not blessed with that and there are huge question marks regarding our defence, which makes it almost impossible to win a title, as well as whether some of our amazing players have gone past their peak.

If we miss out on top four this season - which I personally think is almost certain to happen - then our only real starting aim for next season should be to get back in it and go from there. I agree with other posters that we will. I think the alleged 'Big Six' has real potential to reduce to a 'Big Four' in the next few years, if it hasn't already, with us, United, Chelsea and City moving above the rest. There will always be sides like Leicester and Everton - and Spurs and Arsenal obviously - with potential to sneak in if one or more of those four teams perform below their level, but if they don't then their par should be too good to be matched. The fact that the bookies had us as a 50/50 shot to make the top four as of yesterday despite us being absolutely terrible for half of the season tells us that.

The squad is at it's peak now (could even be past it for some players) so to throw away another year after this one was tossed away is just one more year closer to the whole thing needing to be rebuilt with nothing to show for it.  If we're not challenging for the title then depending on the economics in world football we're going to having an aging squad on huge wages with little hope of changing it barring a godfather type offer for a player we'd probably prefer to keep.