Topic: Predictions for bottom 3/relegation

[ljycb]

Fat Sam could help them with their biggest problem at the moment, and that is their leaky defence. They have enough talent upfront, if they could somehow concede less ...

It could be hard for those players to get behind the idea of him fixing the leaky defence if/when they get spanked in their first game away at City.

[PeterTheRed ...]

It could be hard for those players to get behind the idea of him fixing the leaky defence if/when they get spanked in their first game away at City.

The problem with Leeds' defending is that they are doing the basics wrong. And Man City won't be pushing too hard, playing West Ham 3 days earlier and Real Madrid 3 days later. Leeds could get away with a reasonable defeat, if Fat Sam parks the bus and plays on the counter-attack. Man City wouldn't want to take too many risks ahead of their game of the season ...

[G Richards]

Leeds should have stuck with Jesse Marsch. They were a bit up and down, but they were playing for him and he was getting to grips with it. Since sacking him they’ve been no better, and have possibly been worse.

Better to back your man to take you on.

Right now they are in a panic, and if Fat Sam is the answer, the question must be, “Who ordered the pint of wine?” 

[farawayred]

I can predict with near certainty that three teams will be relegated. Odds are that Saints will be one of them. That's how much my crystal ball will collaborate...

[Ciara (with a capital "C")]

They are all so shite and don’t look like they have wins in them. That was Leicester’s easiest game left. Not sure Leeds pick up another point. Forest have Southampton at home next - that’s now a great chance for them to get out of it. I think a win for Forest would save them, as Leeds and Leicester don’t look like they have it in them.

[deano2727]

Southampton, Leeds and Leicester to go down. I fancy Forest to beat Southamton, Leeds will lose all their games and I can see Everton getting 4 from their final two games.

[thaddeus]

Southampton, Leeds and Leicester to go down. I fancy Forest to beat Southamton, Leeds will lose all their games and I can see Everton getting 4 from their final two games.

I think that's about right but can't decide between Leicester or Everton.

Southampton look to have a bit of fight but the leads they've not converted into wins in the last few games means they've left themselves too much to do.  Leeds have not picked up enough points in winnable games and have a really tough looking run-in even if they do improve.

The only question for me is who goes down with those two.  Forest have the best run-in and Everton will likely benefit from Bournemouth having nothing to play for on the final day.  Leicester looked really poor last night.

The wild card team that will likely decide if Everton survive or not are Moysie's West Ham.  With their European matches they're going to be stretched a bit thin and still have to play both Leeds and Leicester. 

[Jookie]

The wild card team that will likely decide if Everton survive or not are Moysie's West Ham.  With their European matches they're going to be stretched a bit thin and still have to play both Leeds and Leicester. 

In the 38 game PL era, very few teams have ever been relegated with 35 points. People talk about the magical 40 point mark but I would say it's more like 35-36 points.

This season there are 5 teams who are currently trending towards less than 35 points gained over 38 games (based on average ppg).

I think it'd need a significant upturn in fortunes for a number of the teams in bottom 5 for West Ham to get relegated. I think they are probably fine with 34 points given their goal difference.

I think a team will stay up with 33 points this season.

[Barneylfc∗]

In the 38 game PL era, very few teams have ever been relegated with 35 points. People talk about the magical 40 point mark but I would say it's more like 35-36 points.

This season there are 5 teams who are currently trending towards less than 35 points gained over 38 games (based on average ppg).

I think it'd need a significant upturn in fortunes for a number of the teams in bottom 5 for West Ham to get relegated. I think they are probably fine with 34 points given their goal difference.

I think a team will stay up with 33 points this season.

The average points for the 18th placed team is just over 35 points. But normally the 17th place team is a few points above that.

Last season, Burnley went down with 35. Leeds stayed up with 38 so even 37 would've sent Burnley down.
20/21 - Fulham got 28 points, but would've went down with 38.
19/20 - Bournemouth 34 points
18/19 - Cardiff went down on 34, but would've went down with 35
17/18 - Swansea went down with 33, but would've went down with 35
16/17 - Hull went down with 34, but would've went down with 39
15/16 - The old Newcastle 37, would've went down with 38
14/15 - Hull down with 35, would've went down with 37

[rushyman]

I'd say Everton need to be 3pts adrift come the bournemouth home game at the last game.

Bournemouth will be on the beach and the place will be turned into the 9th gate of hell on top of that.

2 of Forest Leeds and Leicester have to find 2pts from somewhere

[PeterTheRed ...]

I find it very amusing that people are expecting Everton to win their last two games.

Their last win was on March 11th

[KennyDaggers]

I Just can't see past Leeds and Forest. I think both Everton and Leicester will find a way out of it as they won't need much although I was suprised at just how poor Leicester where last night. I still think Leicester and Everton could get points in virtually all their games, they have results in them and the players who've came back for Everton recently, Calvert Lewin in particular, do make a big difference whilst Leicester have a few quality player who could drag them through.

Forest must beat Southampton to have any chance and I don't think they will. If they don't, they're finished.

Leeds have absolutely nothing and for me have been the worst team in the league for a few weeks. I had them down for no more than 1 point at the most from the last 4 games before Sam came in. He may give them a chance but i don't see it myself, I think they're done.

[rushyman]

I find it very amusing that people are expecting Everton to win their last two games.

Their last win was on March 11th

Bournemouth at home is a win imo

The others are a point max

So 33 pts max

[Barneylfc∗]

I find it very amusing that people are expecting Everton to win their last two games.

Their last win was on March 11th

No one is expecting them to win their last 2 games.

Saying they could is not the same as saying they will. They'll be playing 2 teams that have nothing to play for so it's not unreasonable that they could win them both.

I think they will beat Bournemouth, not sure about Wolves though.

[Sharado]

I think a team will stay up with 33 points this season.

100%. I think 34 is the mark to be '100% safe' at the moment. Any win for leicester, everton, forest and leeds almost pulls them entirely out of it.

[ScouserAtHeart]

Bournemouth at home is a win imo

The others are a point max

So 33 pts max

I still think they stay up with 32

[rushyman]

I still think they stay up with 32

My opinion is If West Ham get through to the Europa Conference final Everton are relegated

[Machae]

Games should be played the same time at this stage of the season

[thaddeus]

In the 38 game PL era, very few teams have ever been relegated with 35 points. People talk about the magical 40 point mark but I would say it's more like 35-36 points.

This season there are 5 teams who are currently trending towards less than 35 points gained over 38 games (based on average ppg).

I think it'd need a significant upturn in fortunes for a number of the teams in bottom 5 for West Ham to get relegated. I think they are probably fine with 34 points given their goal difference.

I think a team will stay up with 33 points this season.

Sorry, my message was vague.  I didn't mean that West Ham would take up one of the relegation spots, more that they may give points to potentially two of the sides that are in danger of relegation (Leeds and Leicester).

I think West Ham are already safe but a win for them against Man U would be ideal as it would pretty much guarantee it and take some points off one of our rivals.  They would then go into the final few games with Conference League as their priority.

Last season Everton were saved by Palace having nothing to play for and it would be annoying if Bournemouth bailed them out this season.  If Leeds and Leicester similarly benefit then at least it levels the playing field.

[Fromola]

Leeds should have rolled the dice sooner. Gracia was a shit appointment to begin with but their performances were hopeless. They'd have been better off keeping Lasso.

Allardyce is pure desperation at this point. But if they can pinch a win somewhere it might be enough.

[Sharado]

Games should be played the same time at this stage of the season

I kind of agree you know. Think this about the title race as well, in 2019 and 2022 we seemed to play before city every time. On the one hand it 'kept the pressure on' but I always felt like it meant city 'knew what they had to do'. I don't think City would have drawn with West Ham, for example, if we hadn't drawn with spurs the night before. But there we are.

[KurtVerbose]

I went through a game predictor and came out with Leicester, Leeds and Southampton going down. Everton stayed up with 33 points.

https://thefishy.co.uk/calculator0.php?competition=1

[mikey_LFC]

If

• Nottingham Forest beat Southampton on Monday

and

• Everton handsomely lose their next two games against Brighton away and Man City at home

and

• Either Leicester or Leeds get at least 3 points from their remaining games

then, Everton will need to win their last 2 games of the season against Wolves away and Bournemouth at home. They’ve only won back to back games once this year, back in September/October.

To me, the first two of those seem quite likely, and the best chance of the last one happening is probably Leicester beating Fulham on Monday. So this time next week, we may be a City battering of Everton away from them needing 6 from 6.

[rushyman]

I went through a game predictor and came out with Leicester, Leeds and Southampton going down. Everton stayed up with 33 points.

https://thefishy.co.uk/calculator0.php?competition=1

Pretty much how I have it also

But it doesn't take into account West Ham's europa conference games affecting their line ups and performances v Leicester and leeds. Hinges on that

[Fortneef]

Dream bigger dreams...


Chelsea are not mathematically safe

[Jookie]

The average points for the 18th placed team is just over 35 points. But normally the 17th place team is a few points above that.

Last season, Burnley went down with 35. Leeds stayed up with 38 so even 37 would've sent Burnley down.
20/21 - Fulham got 28 points, but would've went down with 38.
19/20 - Bournemouth 34 points
18/19 - Cardiff went down on 34, but would've went down with 35
17/18 - Swansea went down with 33, but would've went down with 35
16/17 - Hull went down with 34, but would've went down with 39
15/16 - The old Newcastle 37, would've went down with 38
14/15 - Hull down with 35, would've went down with 37

I looked at the ones in bold in a different way.

The 17th placed team would have stayed up with 35 points.

When I was saying 35 points would normally keep you up I'm looking at whether the team in 18th got 35 points or less. The vast majority of the time that is the case.

I didn't think of looking at it the way you did which would use 17th as the fixed points position (rather than 18th) to what you need to achieve.

I think it's 2 ways to look at the same thing.

[macmanamanaman]

Dream bigger dreams...


Chelsea are not mathematically safe

And Super Frankie does no maths.

[macmanamanaman]

Pretty much how I have it also

But it doesn't take into account West Ham's europa conference games affecting their line ups and performances v Leicester and leeds. Hinges on that

David Moyes fielding the U18s against Leicester and Leeds, to get Everton relegated.
Oh my.

[Barneylfc∗]

I looked at the ones in bold in a different way.

The 17th placed team would have stayed up with 35 points.

When I was saying 35 points would normally keep you up I'm looking at whether the team in 18th got 35 points or less. The vast majority of the time that is the case.

I didn't think of looking at it the way you did which would use 17th as the fixed points position (rather than 18th) to what you need to achieve.

I think it's 2 ways to look at the same thing.

That's a fair point. I didn't see it your way either 

[UntouchableLuis]

I feel certain that Everton lose to city and beat Bournemouth.

They'll probably need another 3 points but I could see them winning at Wolves, a team that won't want it as much as got decimated by Brighton.

[farawayred]

Does anyone know what is the lowest point tally that a club escaped relegation with in a 38-game season?

I feel we might be in for a new low record.

[rushyman]

David Moyes fielding the U18s against Leicester and Leeds, to get Everton relegated.
Oh my.

Please god happen

Everton's game v city is at home in between Madrid ties

I'm not so sure about that result now either

[macmanamanaman]

Please god happen

Everton's game v city is at home in between Madrid ties

I'm not so sure about that result now either

City's C team is stronger than Everton's A team.
Maybe even worse for Everton to be up against hyper motivated fringe players desperate to grab their chance and prove a point to baldy and get considered for the finals etc.

Moyes on the other hand....has a chance to play a real blinder.

[rob1966]

Does anyone know what is the lowest point tally that a club escaped relegation with in a 38-game season?

I feel we might be in for a new low record.

West Brom 04/05 stayed up with 34pts.

[elsewhere]

Don't do it to yourself. Everton are not getting relegated. They are getting 5-7 pts from Brighton, Wolves and Bournemouth.
Wolves and Bournemouth will both be on holidays in last 2 weeks.

Yesterday was a screw up by Leicester. Now it will be Southampton, Leeds and Leicester/Nottingham for me. Looking at their schedule, most likely Nottingham.

[macmanamanaman]

Don't do it to yourself. Everton are not getting relegated. They are getting 5-7 pts from Brighton, Wolves and Bournemouth.
Wolves and Bournemouth will both be on holidays in last 2 weeks.

Yesterday was a screw up by Leicester. Now it will be Southampton, Leeds and Leicester/Nottingham for me. Looking at their schedule, most likely Nottingham.

I reckon a £20 hedge should do the trick.
Let's bet on them staying up.
That way....winners either way

[rushyman]

City's C team is stronger than Everton's A team.
Maybe even worse for Everton to be up against hyper motivated fringe players desperate to grab their chance and prove a point to baldy and get considered for the finals etc. 

Moyes on the other hand....has a chance to play a real blinder.

The 2nd leg semi is  the away tie 3 days before they play leeds. That's nice

Then the final if they make it would be 3 days after they play Leicester. He would be idiotic to play literally anyone in first team

[farawayred]

West Brom 04/05 stayed up with 34pts.

Thanks, Rob! Then I'm justified for feeling that this season might set a new record... Hope it's not the turd that does that...

[rob1966]

Don't do it to yourself. Everton are not getting relegated. They are getting 5-7 pts from Brighton, Wolves and Bournemouth.
Wolves and Bournemouth will both be on holidays in last 2 weeks.

Yesterday was a screw up by Leicester. Now it will be Southampton, Leeds and Leicester/Nottingham for me. Looking at their schedule, most likely Nottingham.

I hope this kind of thought goes viral and the players see if and think fuck that and batter the shite. Fergie thought we'd lose to Blackburn and that didn't work for the arl c*nt

[Crosby Nick]

Too hard to call when one win for any of them at this point makes them favourites to survive. An early red card, a dodgy penalty etc could make all the difference.

Think the only thing you can say with a degree of certainty is that City will probably easily dispatch anyone they have to play (Everton and Leeds). The rest you never really know although you’d expect these teams to lose to the likes of Brighton and Newcastle on current form.

Nothing is done (apart from Southampton). That other four could all stay up. Really can’t call it but I don’t think wolves and Bournemouth are anything like the dead certs for Everton that some of you seem to think.