Author Topic: Naby Keita Watch  (Read 1889498 times)

Offline fowlermagic

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Re: Naby Keita Watch
« Reply #5040 on: January 31, 2019, 04:52:14 pm »
He needs to be patient and so do we as it will take at least a season to bed the lad. The balance of the midfield was a wee off last night I thought as when you dont have Henderson, Fabinho or Milner in there it leaves a lot on Gini's shoulders as in one moment Keita surged forward while Shaqiri was also ahead of him, ball was lost and before you know it Gini was outnumbered. He did well to win it back but in that incident you could see we could have done with another holding player in there as well. A tough balance as I want more attacking output from the midfield as assists/goals numbers are down but the way they pressure the opposition we get the ball back very quickly. That has an attacking edge to it that will never be reflected in the goal / assist tally ...is it been greedy to have both?
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Offline Mr Dilkington

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Re: Naby Keita Watch
« Reply #5041 on: January 31, 2019, 04:53:34 pm »
Some interesting posts on the Keita situation. I have to say I find some of the criticism of him overblown given his performances so far. It's fair to say that he came with a huge reputation, however it was legitimate based on his performances for Leipzig - particularly in his first season. Up until now, he obviously hasn't reached that level - most of his underlying numbers are down a chunk, however it's important to note that whilst he isn't the midfield phenomenon he was at Leipzig as of yet, he's still contributing in useful ways both on and off the ball. His presses per 90 and possession wins from pressing are second only to Fabinho, this is in addition to the solid ball progression numbers he's been putting up.



This is especially important given that at times our midfield struggles to progress the ball which causes the front three to drop deeper in an attempt to do it themselves. There was a bit of that away at Brighton - Salah dropped 10-15 yards deeper in the second half because the ball wasn't getting into the final third - Keita helps with that, however I think Klopp is wary about him because he's such a frenetic and unpredictable player. Wijnaldum and Henderson certainly don't have certain qualities Keita has, however I think Klopp appreciates their discipline and tactical understanding. I think that's why Klopp has used Keita off the left in the 4-2-3-1 - I don't think he trusts Keita to play in a midfield two yet because he's too prone to being drawn out of position which can expose our shape - especially with Robertson and (usually) Trent taking really advanced positions. That being said, given Fabinho's improvement (I think there's an argument that he's our best midfielder), I would really like to see Fabinho and Keita play together in a midfield two at some point soon.

Michael Caley wrote a really good piece on Leipzig and Keita a couple of years back, and there are a couple of really interesting points in there which I think help explain why Naby has found the Premier League more difficult to crack.

https://www.sbnation.com/soccer/2016/12/15/13924976/rb-leipzig-bundesliga-title-naby-keita

The first thing that stands out is the stylistic differences between the leagues:

A typical Bundesliga match will see about 60 open field possession contests (tackle or interception attempts) in the center of the pitch (from one 18-yard box to the other). There are only 35-40 open field possession contests in this area in a typical Premier League game. However, that EPL game sees on average about 60 clearances and 7-8 blocked shots compared to only 45 clearances and 5-6 blocks in the Bundesliga. There is much more defensive engagement in the center of the pitch in Germany, whereas in the Premier League the primary locus of defense is around the penalty area.

This style was perfect for Keita's all action pressing and dribbling game. In the Premier League, particularly playing for one of the best teams in the league, the majority of teams are going to sit off, hold their shape and play pretty passively. It's no coincidence that Keita's best performance for Liverpool to date came against Burnley. They definitely drop deep and get bodies behind the ball, but they also do a lot of pressing in an attempt to disrupt the flow of the opposition. In that game, it was like shooting fish in a barrel for Keita. They pressed him time and time again and he skipped past them time and time again. He was creating chances, taking shots, progressing the ball, making tackles and interceptions whilst being pretty much press resistant. In most other games, the opposition are happy to sit off him, it's then you see him struggle a bit more. You can see his response is often to just stand still with the ball at his feet in an attempt to force the press where he can then evade it and move through the gears. To round this off, I'll make a tentative prediction that if Bayern come to Anfield and try come at us, Keita (if he starts) will have a field day.
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Offline LallanaInPyjamas

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Re: Naby Keita Watch
« Reply #5042 on: January 31, 2019, 04:58:08 pm »
Good post, Dilks.

It's my concern with buying from Germany, to be honest (hence the custom user title). It's a completely different league, and in my view now an inferior one, too. I think he is massively struggling with both the adaptation and the step-up.

If I had £60m to spend on a midfielder, I wouldn't have chosen Naby Keita. But we are where we are. There'll be games which suit him and others which won't. Klopp will work that out along the way.
« Last Edit: January 31, 2019, 05:00:15 pm by LallanaInPyjamas »

Offline PhaseOfPlay

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Re: Naby Keita Watch
« Reply #5043 on: January 31, 2019, 05:00:11 pm »
Valid question and I suppose it points to a lack of confidence. Just not sure taking him off when he's just starting to a show a bit of a spark was the best idea.

To quote Star Trek, and coaches all over the world ;D - "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one"

Klopp probably reckoned he wasn't getting any more out of Keita for the day, and decided Fabinho would do more, and that Gini could hold the fort as he is the more consistent midfielder of the three.
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Offline Dan6times

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Re: Naby Keita Watch
« Reply #5044 on: January 31, 2019, 05:01:01 pm »
Harsh on Gini for sure..  But I think Keita and Ox breaking through the lines with power, pace and ability to beat players one on one is too good to pass up.. especially against the low block where we will dominate possession..

I was expecting to see a similar player to Ox in the regard of breaking lines with power and his dribbling ability

There is literally zero power there he's weak and looks like he has 5 kg ankle weights on!
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Offline PhaseOfPlay

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Re: Naby Keita Watch
« Reply #5045 on: January 31, 2019, 05:05:23 pm »
Some interesting posts on the Keita situation. I have to say I find some of the criticism of him overblown given his performances so far. It's fair to say that he came with a huge reputation, however it was legitimate based on his performances for Leipzig - particularly in his first season. Up until now, he obviously hasn't reached that level - most of his underlying numbers are down a chunk, however it's important to note that whilst he isn't the midfield phenomenon he was at Leipzig as of yet, he's still contributing in useful ways both on and off the ball. His presses per 90 and possession wins from pressing are second only to Fabinho, this is in addition to the solid ball progression numbers he's been putting up.



This is especially important given that at times our midfield struggles to progress the ball which causes the front three to drop deeper in an attempt to do it themselves. There was a bit of that away at Brighton - Salah dropped 10-15 yards deeper in the second half because the ball wasn't getting into the final third - Keita helps with that, however I think Klopp is wary about him because he's such a frenetic and unpredictable player. Wijnaldum and Henderson certainly don't have certain qualities Keita has, however I think Klopp appreciates their discipline and tactical understanding. I think that's why Klopp has used Keita off the left in the 4-2-3-1 - I don't think he trusts Keita to play in a midfield two yet because he's too prone to being drawn out of position which can expose our shape - especially with Robertson and (usually) Trent taking really advanced positions. That being said, given Fabinho's improvement (I think there's an argument that he's our best midfielder), I would really like to see Fabinho and Keita play together in a midfield two at some point soon.

Michael Caley wrote a really good piece on Leipzig and Keita a couple of years back, and there are a couple of really interesting points in there which I think help explain why Naby has found the Premier League more difficult to crack.

https://www.sbnation.com/soccer/2016/12/15/13924976/rb-leipzig-bundesliga-title-naby-keita

The first thing that stands out is the stylistic differences between the leagues:

A typical Bundesliga match will see about 60 open field possession contests (tackle or interception attempts) in the center of the pitch (from one 18-yard box to the other). There are only 35-40 open field possession contests in this area in a typical Premier League game. However, that EPL game sees on average about 60 clearances and 7-8 blocked shots compared to only 45 clearances and 5-6 blocks in the Bundesliga. There is much more defensive engagement in the center of the pitch in Germany, whereas in the Premier League the primary locus of defense is around the penalty area.

This style was perfect for Keita's all action pressing and dribbling game. In the Premier League, particularly playing for one of the best teams in the league, the majority of teams are going to sit off, hold their shape and play pretty passively. It's no coincidence that Keita's best performance for Liverpool to date came against Burnley. They definitely drop deep and get bodies behind the ball, but they also do a lot of pressing in an attempt to disrupt the flow of the opposition. In that game, it was like shooting fish in a barrel for Keita. They pressed him time and time again and he skipped past them time and time again. He was creating chances, taking shots, progressing the ball, making tackles and interceptions whilst being pretty much press resistant. In most other games, the opposition are happy to sit off him, it's then you see him struggle a bit more. You can see his response is often to just stand still with the ball at his feet in an attempt to force the press where he can then evade it and move through the gears. To round this off, I'll make a tentative prediction that if Bayern come to Anfield and try come at us, Keita (if he starts) will have a field day.

Good post, but I'll add to this:

Quote
the majority of teams are going to sit off, hold their shape and play pretty passively

... by saying that PL teams are also more likely to launch it over the midfield on transition, which means the central mids have to drop back and collect the ball off the defenders again, which pretty much nullifies Keita's strengths.

If we play Keita against the possession teams, I say he ends up playing closer to what we bought him for. If he plays against United, for example, I say he'll have a great game, closer to his natural style of play. Against a team that sits and sends, though, he ends up playing mostly in the back of the midfield shape, relying on his passing, which is probably not a viable option against bus-parking teams in the PL
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Offline Mr Dilkington

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Re: Naby Keita Watch
« Reply #5046 on: January 31, 2019, 05:19:08 pm »
Good post, but I'll add to this:

... by saying that PL teams are also more likely to launch it over the midfield on transition, which means the central mids have to drop back and collect the ball off the defenders again, which pretty much nullifies Keita's strengths.

If we play Keita against the possession teams, I say he ends up playing closer to what we bought him for. If he plays against United, for example, I say he'll have a great game, closer to his natural style of play. Against a team that sits and sends, though, he ends up playing mostly in the back of the midfield shape, relying on his passing, which is probably not a viable option against bus-parking teams in the PL
Agreed. It was a slight worry of mine before Keita arrived but I'm more than happy to admit I got carried away with the excitement and sort of put it to the back of my mind. The thing that he doesn't have in his locker, which the Caley article touches on, is his play is very concentrated on runs and passes through the centre of the pitch, which is obviously a really valuable skill, but he doesn't have a great range of passes in his locker. That's one of the things that makes Pogba so dangerous - he has the ability to dribble/pass through the middle of the pitch in the way Keita does, but he also has it in him to stretch teams with the variety of his passing - he can switch it either side with ease. Most of Keita's passing is pretty similar - he commits players with the dribble and slides straight balls behind the defence.
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Offline BrandoLFC

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Re: Naby Keita Watch
« Reply #5047 on: January 31, 2019, 05:23:48 pm »
So if a shot isn't  a "chance", what exactly do you define a "chance" as?

As always let's argue the semantics instead of the real issue.  Sure, every shot has a chance to go in however minute or improbable.  How else do players like Townsend stay in the PL?  But to argue that somehow LFC were creating more chances just by shot attempts alone is patently false.

Offline PhaseOfPlay

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Re: Naby Keita Watch
« Reply #5048 on: January 31, 2019, 05:26:04 pm »
As always let's argue the semantics instead of the real issue.  Sure, every shot has a chance to go in however minute or improbable.  How else do players like Townsend stay in the PL?  But to argue that somehow LFC were creating more chances just by shot attempts alone is patently false.

So we created more shots, but we weren't creating more chances, even though those chances were shots, despite the definition of "chances" being shots by not only Opta and the other metrics companies, but by coach education institutions, professional managers, players and coaches, and everyone else in the history of the game?

What you're saying, really, is that YOU didn't think they were chances, therefore they aren't.

Right?
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Offline FlashGordon

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Re: Naby Keita Watch
« Reply #5049 on: January 31, 2019, 05:28:23 pm »
So we created more shots, but we weren't creating more chances, even though those chances were shots, despite the definition of "chances" being shots by not only Opta and the other metrics companies, but by coach education institutions, professional managers, players and coaches, and everyone else in the history of the game?

What you're saying, really, is that YOU didn't think they were chances, therefore they aren't.

Right?

Is this why they measure big chances as well? To differentiate between a shot from a good location in the box and a 50 yard attempt by Dejan Lovren against the Mancs  ;D
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Offline PhaseOfPlay

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Re: Naby Keita Watch
« Reply #5050 on: January 31, 2019, 05:33:21 pm »
Is this why they measure big chances as well? To differentiate between a shot from a good location in the box and a 50 yard attempt by Dejan Lovren against the Mancs  ;D

Actually, yes :D

A chance is literally that - a player in a position, with space enough to shoot, who has the potential to shoot on goal whether that shot is on-target or off-target, or whether it's a goal or not. The "Chance" recognises that the attacking team created a situation that put the defending team's goal under threat. That's why it's a "chance", a "half-chance",  or a "big chance". The outcome is not important to the creation of the "chance". The only thing that is important is that the attacker had the opportunity to get the shot, regardless of whether the outcome was positive or negative. It says that either the attacking team used good skill and tactics to get a player into position and deliver them the ball, or that the defending team made at least one technical or tactical error to allow the player the space and time to potentially score.

Facts are, we create more chances after Keita went off. Not BECAUSE Keita went off. But after he did. That is unarguable. The only question is why we didn't create those chances while he was on the field, at that rate.
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Offline FlashGordon

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Re: Naby Keita Watch
« Reply #5051 on: January 31, 2019, 05:37:59 pm »
Actually, yes :D

A chance is literally that - a player in a position, with space enough to shoot, who has the potential to shoot on goal whether that shot is on-target or off-target, or whether it's a goal or not. The "Chance" recognises that the attacking team created a situation that put the defending team's goal under threat. That's why it's a "chance", a "half-chance",  or a "big chance". The outcome is not important to the creation of the "chance". The only thing that is important is that the attacker had the opportunity to get the shot, regardless of whether the outcome was positive or negative. It says that either the attacking team used good skill and tactics to get a player into position and deliver them the ball, or that the defending team made at least one technical or tactical error to allow the player the space and time to potentially score.

Facts are, we create more chances after Keita went off. Not BECAUSE Keita went off. But after he did. That is unarguable. The only question is why we didn't create those chances while he was on the field, at that rate.

Ok I get you now, I'm not sure we should concentrate on chances created so and more on the quality of chance. I would say the one chance Keita created for himself, with a helping hand from Bobby, would have a higher value than anything that was created after he went off. Does his chance even get recorded as one though?
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Offline PhaseOfPlay

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Re: Naby Keita Watch
« Reply #5052 on: January 31, 2019, 05:40:40 pm »
Ok I get you now, I'm not sure we should concentrate on chances created so and more on the quality of chance. I would say the one chance Keita created for himself, with a helping hand from Bobby, would have a higher value than anything that was created after he went off. Does his chance even get recorded as one though?

Quality of chance? That's on the player taking the shot.

The creation of the chance is usually on the midfield (in open play).

And if you're talking about the one he was fouled for? No, it doesn't get recorded as a chance, because he didn't get a shot off.
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Offline AndyMuller

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Re: Naby Keita Watch
« Reply #5053 on: January 31, 2019, 05:49:08 pm »
Good post, Dilks.

It's my concern with buying from Germany, to be honest (hence the custom user title). It's a completely different league, and in my view now an inferior one, too. I think he is massively struggling with both the adaptation and the step-up.

If I had £60m to spend on a midfielder, I wouldn't have chosen Naby Keita. But we are where we are. There'll be games which suit him and others which won't. Klopp will work that out along the way.

Which midfielder would you have signed instead of Keita?

Offline FlashGordon

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Re: Naby Keita Watch
« Reply #5054 on: January 31, 2019, 05:56:36 pm »
Quality of chance? That's on the player taking the shot.

The creation of the chance is usually on the midfield (in open play).

And if you're talking about the one he was fouled for? No, it doesn't get recorded as a chance, because he didn't get a shot off.

How is this the case though? Surely a shot from 50 yards can't be recorded at the same quality of chance as a shot from 10 yards?

I suppose this shows that stats aren't the be all and end all. Our most dangerous phase of play in the whole game doesn't get recorded anywhere.
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Offline BrandoLFC

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Re: Naby Keita Watch
« Reply #5055 on: January 31, 2019, 06:02:18 pm »
So we created more shots, but we weren't creating more chances, even though those chances were shots, despite the definition of "chances" being shots by not only Opta and the other metrics companies, but by coach education institutions, professional managers, players and coaches, and everyone else in the history of the game?

What you're saying, really, is that YOU didn't think they were chances, therefore they aren't.

Right?

Alright now your entering farcical territory.  A company that tracks stats and assigns a value to each shot that they then sell values them all the same?  What the fuck are they even selling then?

Just the simple fact of taking shots = better.  What if VvD just hit the ball 10 times from the halfway line at goal?  Better?  Give me a fucking break. 

Actually, yes :D

A chance is literally that - a player in a position, with space enough to shoot, who has the potential to shoot on goal whether that shot is on-target or off-target, or whether it's a goal or not. The "Chance" recognises that the attacking team created a situation that put the defending team's goal under threat. That's why it's a "chance", a "half-chance",  or a "big chance". The outcome is not important to the creation of the "chance". The only thing that is important is that the attacker had the opportunity to get the shot, regardless of whether the outcome was positive or negative. It says that either the attacking team used good skill and tactics to get a player into position and deliver them the ball, or that the defending team made at least one technical or tactical error to allow the player the space and time to potentially score.

Facts are, we create more chances after Keita went off. Not BECAUSE Keita went off. But after he did. That is unarguable. The only question is why we didn't create those chances while he was on the field, at that rate.

So is it chances or shots? 

According to Opta who tracts these per your above post we didn't improve.  We had .28xG before he went off and .27xG after. 

Were Leicester playing exactly the same as well?  Amazingly they weren't and I'd argue it's impossible for you to know for sure whether anything would have been different had he stayed on the field or not.

Offline sharkeyb

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Re: Naby Keita Watch
« Reply #5056 on: January 31, 2019, 06:05:05 pm »
he's a cabbage lads
shown nothing so far
can't name an attribute he has. 
Sir, the cash monies?

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Re: Naby Keita Watch
« Reply #5057 on: January 31, 2019, 06:08:45 pm »
he's a cabbage lads
shown nothing so far
can't name an attribute he has.

Punctuation is one of his strong points I hear.
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Re: Naby Keita Watch
« Reply #5058 on: January 31, 2019, 06:15:23 pm »
he's a cabbage lads
shown nothing so far
can't name an attribute he has.

That's almost a haiku there.
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Re: Naby Keita Watch
« Reply #5059 on: January 31, 2019, 06:24:06 pm »
he's a cabbage lads
shown nothing so far
can't name an attribute he has.

It's not our fault you're a moron.


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Re: Naby Keita Watch
« Reply #5060 on: January 31, 2019, 07:16:06 pm »
Good post, Dilks.

It's my concern with buying from Germany, to be honest (hence the custom user title). It's a completely different league, and in my view now an inferior one, too. I think he is massively struggling with both the adaptation and the step-up.

If I had £60m to spend on a midfielder, I wouldn't have chosen Naby Keita. But we are where we are. There'll be games which suit him and others which won't. Klopp will work that out along the way.

But what league can that first sentence NOT be applied to? Surely there isn't one, they're all different leagues to the premier league and what league is on par or superior right now? None of them in all honesty.

Naby wasn't £60 million either to be fair... wasn't it £52 million. What CM should we have bought for that fee who would have worked better as a left sided forward and adapted quicker?

Quality of chance? That's on the player taking the shot.

The creation of the chance is usually on the midfield (in open play).

And if you're talking about the one he was fouled for? No, it doesn't get recorded as a chance, because he didn't get a shot off.

Surely that just sums up perfectly one of the problems with stats, how do you percieve that passage of play from a referees point of view? The foul clearly denied the chance in that passage of play
« Last Edit: January 31, 2019, 07:19:47 pm by RyanBabel19 »

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Re: Naby Keita Watch
« Reply #5061 on: January 31, 2019, 07:19:03 pm »
Thought he improved as game went on. Should have had a penalty. Did better than Gini imo.

Offline PhaseOfPlay

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Re: Naby Keita Watch
« Reply #5062 on: January 31, 2019, 07:23:49 pm »
Alright now your entering farcical territory.  A company that tracks stats and assigns a value to each shot that they then sell values them all the same?  What the fuck are they even selling then?

Just the simple fact of taking shots = better.  What if VvD just hit the ball 10 times from the halfway line at goal?  Better?  Give me a fucking break. 

So is it chances or shots? 

According to Opta who tracts these per your above post we didn't improve.  We had .28xG before he went off and .27xG after. 

Were Leicester playing exactly the same as well?  Amazingly they weren't and I'd argue it's impossible for you to know for sure whether anything would have been different had he stayed on the field or not.

I'm still waiting for YOU to define what a "chance" is.



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Offline PhaseOfPlay

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Re: Naby Keita Watch
« Reply #5063 on: January 31, 2019, 07:26:12 pm »
How is this the case though? Surely a shot from 50 yards can't be recorded at the same quality of chance as a shot from 10 yards?

I suppose this shows that stats aren't the be all and end all. Our most dangerous phase of play in the whole game doesn't get recorded anywhere.

I didn't say they were recorded as the same quality.

I said the quality of the shot is on the player taking the shot, not the chance creator (i.e. the player making the key pass).

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Offline FlashGordon

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Re: Naby Keita Watch
« Reply #5064 on: January 31, 2019, 07:34:08 pm »
I didn't say they were recorded as the same quality.

I said the quality of the shot is on the player taking the shot, not the chance creator (i.e. the player making the key pass).

Sorry if I'm coming across as a bit thick here, I wasn't talking about the quality of the shot I was talking about the quality of the chance and this is where I'm getting muddied by any shot is a chance. You could hit a 40 yard thunderbolt and the quality of the shot would be very high but the quality of the chance is very low. On the other hand you could sky a tap in from 2 yards out and the quality of the shot would be very low but the quality of the chance created would be extremely high. I'm not sure if this is making sense to you? Thanks for taking the time to walk me through it, it's appreciated.
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Offline ElstonGunn

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Re: Naby Keita Watch
« Reply #5065 on: January 31, 2019, 07:43:16 pm »
The clear cut chance Keita would’ve had if he hadn’t been fouled would have been roughly the same xG value as all our 10 others shot put together.

Offline PhaseOfPlay

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Re: Naby Keita Watch
« Reply #5066 on: January 31, 2019, 07:46:54 pm »
Sorry if I'm coming across as a bit thick here, I wasn't talking about the quality of the shot I was talking about the quality of the chance and this is where I'm getting muddied by any shot is a chance. You could hit a 40 yard thunderbolt and the quality of the shot would be very high but the quality of the chance is very low. On the other hand you could sky a tap in from 2 yards out and the quality of the shot would be very low but the quality of the chance created would be extremely high. I'm not sure if this is making sense to you? Thanks for taking the time to walk me through it, it's appreciated.

Those are "chances" graded by location, which is quite frankly a dumb way to do it, which is why I don't pay huge attention to "expected goals" in the prevailing models, because they are not based in the reality of the game (although I do like them as they do tell a story of the game).

The quality of the player, the degree of defensive pressure, the time of the game, the foot it comes on to, and other technical factors, will dictate the quality of the chance more than the location. Here are some goals that are "poor quality" chances by location models, but were still goals:

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/4nZ3P1Uj7sg" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/4nZ3P1Uj7sg</a>


Here are some misses which would be sure goals under the location model:

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/36oiTPIG7V0" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/36oiTPIG7V0</a>

Only shots can become goals, when the ball is in possession of the attacking team (including "cross-shots" although I'd be happy to define them as non-shots for anyone who wants to be as pedantic as me :D). If there's any other definition of "chance" that doesn't involve an actual shot being taken, then it is nullshit.
« Last Edit: January 31, 2019, 07:48:54 pm by PhaseOfPlay »
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Offline PhaseOfPlay

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Re: Naby Keita Watch
« Reply #5067 on: January 31, 2019, 07:47:51 pm »
The clear cut chance Keita would’ve had if he hadn’t been fouled would have been roughly the same xG value as all our 10 others shot put together.

Possibly. But he didn't get the shot off, because he was fouled, so it shouldn't count as a chance. It definitely counts as a penalty that should have been given though. But that's a different discussion
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Offline BrandoLFC

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Re: Naby Keita Watch
« Reply #5068 on: January 31, 2019, 07:50:51 pm »
I'm still waiting for YOU to define what a "chance" is.

I already did, what is wrong with you?

As always let's argue the semantics instead of the real issue.  Sure, every shot has a chance to go in however minute or improbable.  How else do players like Townsend stay in the PL?  But to argue that somehow LFC were creating more chances just by shot attempts alone is patently false.

This whole argument started with you claiming that once Naby left the field Liverpool created more.  That's patently false and now you're just clinging onto there were "shots" which is even confusing other people.

I'm not even arguing Naby played well or didn't play well when he was on the pitch.  But to say that there was a cause and effect solely from one variable is farcical and you should know better.

Offline ElstonGunn

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Re: Naby Keita Watch
« Reply #5069 on: January 31, 2019, 07:53:25 pm »
Possibly. But he didn't get the shot off, because he was fouled, so it shouldn't count as a chance. It definitely counts as a penalty that should have been given though. But that's a different discussion
A different discussion than what? Certainly not the discussion of Naby Keita’s contribution to the Leicester match.  Whatever discussion you all are having about “chances” or whatever appears extremely irrelevant to Naby Keita.

Offline BrandoLFC

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Re: Naby Keita Watch
« Reply #5070 on: January 31, 2019, 07:55:40 pm »
Sorry if I'm coming across as a bit thick here, I wasn't talking about the quality of the shot I was talking about the quality of the chance and this is where I'm getting muddied by any shot is a chance. You could hit a 40 yard thunderbolt and the quality of the shot would be very high but the quality of the chance is very low. On the other hand you could sky a tap in from 2 yards out and the quality of the shot would be very low but the quality of the chance created would be extremely high. I'm not sure if this is making sense to you? Thanks for taking the time to walk me through it, it's appreciated.

Statistically shot quality is almost imperceptible in why a goal is scored regardless of what PoP is saying.  Mainly because at the highest level everybody can shoot so to say.  Shot location is what matters most and is more predictive of a goal being scored than almost anything else that is measured at this time.  This is the basis of xG.  Here's Michael Caley's explanation that includes a video as well:

https://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2017/8/17/16164068/explaining-expected-goals-soccers-newest-star




Offline FlashGordon

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Re: Naby Keita Watch
« Reply #5071 on: January 31, 2019, 07:56:56 pm »
Those are "chances" graded by location, which is quite frankly a dumb way to do it, which is why I don't pay huge attention to "expected goals" in the prevailing models, because they are not based in the reality of the game (although I do like them as they do tell a story of the game).

The quality of the player, the degree of defensive pressure, the time of the game, the foot it comes on to, and other technical factors, will dictate the quality of the chance more than the location. Here are some goals that are "poor quality" chances by location models, but were still goals:

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/4nZ3P1Uj7sg" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/4nZ3P1Uj7sg</a>


Here are some misses which would be sure goals under the location model:

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/36oiTPIG7V0" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/36oiTPIG7V0</a>

Only shots can become goals, when the ball is in possession of the attacking team (including "cross-shots" although I'd be happy to define them as non-shots for anyone who wants to be as pedantic as me :D). If there's any other definition of "chance" that doesn't involve an actual shot being taken, then it is nullshit.

So I was making sense, that's a relief. I'm only just getting to grips with stats through this site and all the more knowledgeable posters and I commend ye for that. Surely those examples you've used are all anomalies or outliers in the grand scheme of things. I'd rather have more chances from two yards out than relying on 30 yard belters. Over the course of the game or season you're going to score more creating the chances from two yards out.
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Offline PhaseOfPlay

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Re: Naby Keita Watch
« Reply #5072 on: January 31, 2019, 07:57:48 pm »
I already did, what is wrong with you?

This whole argument started with you claiming that once Naby left the field Liverpool created more.  That's patently false and now you're just clinging onto there were "shots" which is even confusing other people.

I'm not even arguing Naby played well or didn't play well when he was on the pitch.  But to say that there was a cause and effect solely from one variable is farcical and you should know better.

Wait -

You're saying we DIDN'T create more shots after Keita left the field?

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Offline BrandoLFC

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Re: Naby Keita Watch
« Reply #5073 on: January 31, 2019, 07:58:15 pm »
The clear cut chance Keita would’ve had if he hadn’t been fouled would have been roughly the same xG value as all our 10 others shot put together.

This is picked up on non-shot xG which I believe we ended up over 2xG.  I don't really care for non-shot xG though as I don't see how just getting into "good positions" without doing anything is indicative of anything in the future.

Offline PhaseOfPlay

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Re: Naby Keita Watch
« Reply #5074 on: January 31, 2019, 08:00:14 pm »
Statistically shot quality is almost imperceptible in why a goal is scored regardless of what PoP is saying.  Mainly because at the highest level everybody can shoot so to say.  Shot location is what matters most and is more predictive of a goal being scored than almost anything else that is measured at this time.  This is the basis of xG.  Here's Michael Caley's explanation that includes a video as well:

https://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2017/8/17/16164068/explaining-expected-goals-soccers-newest-star

Most shots are taken from the same areas of the field. It's like saying "most goals are scored in 5 passes or less". Which is true. But most possession strings are also 5 passes or less.

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Offline FlashGordon

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Re: Naby Keita Watch
« Reply #5075 on: January 31, 2019, 08:01:35 pm »
This is picked up on non-shot xG which I believe we ended up over 2xG.  I don't really care for non-shot xG though as I don't see how just getting into "good positions" without doing anything is indicative of anything in the future.

If you keep getting in to good positions over time though you're going to get shots off from better locations. For whatever reason we didn't get the shots off last night (having your leg taken from you when you're just about to shoot is one reason), but over the course of a season the better locations you're in the better shots you'll have?
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Offline PhaseOfPlay

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Re: Naby Keita Watch
« Reply #5076 on: January 31, 2019, 08:02:33 pm »
This is picked up on non-shot xG which I believe we ended up over 2xG. I don't really care for non-shot xG though as I don't see how just getting into "good positions" without doing anything is indicative of anything in the future.




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Offline PhaseOfPlay

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Re: Naby Keita Watch
« Reply #5077 on: January 31, 2019, 08:03:18 pm »
If you keep getting in to good positions over time though you're going to get shots off from better locations. For whatever reason we didn't get the shots off last night (having your leg taken from you when you're just about to shoot is one reason), but over the course of a season the better locations you're in the better shots you'll have?

Only if other players can deliver the ball into those locations, or unless you are dribbling the ball into those locations yourself.
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Offline FlashGordon

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Re: Naby Keita Watch
« Reply #5078 on: January 31, 2019, 08:06:47 pm »
Only if other players can deliver the ball into those locations, or unless you are dribbling the ball into those locations yourself.

Yeah of course, we're in agreement here. Which is the exact sequence leading to that non-chance definite penalty  ;D
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Re: Naby Keita Watch
« Reply #5079 on: January 31, 2019, 08:08:01 pm »
Yeah of course, we're in agreement here.

No, no, you're not doing it right. Type louder, demand more attention, and include a couple personal insults at PoP; that's good form... ;)
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