WHY DEMOCRATS ARE LOSING HISPANIC VOTERS
The left has alienated America’s fastest-growing group of voters just when they were supposed to give the party a foolproof majority.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2022/11/hispanic-voters-fleeing-democratic-party/671851/
To add to this:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-54972389.amphttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-11/black-men-are-showing-tepid-enthusiasm-for-stacey-abrams-in-georgia-raceIn some ways, running against Trump was easier. Be anti-Trump on race and gender. It not only worked against Trump but also forced genera GOP candidates to have to choose (between appearing moderate and pleasuring Trump). Arizona senator Jeff Flake, for example, retired before the 2018 midterms. He knew he was in trouble in a diverse state with Trump as basically the head of his party. The Dems have that seat.
But underneath the surface, the minority vote is a lot more complicated.
538 has had a couple of guests on periodically (former Obama staffers that do a lot of work in polling and surveying Latino voters). The word most associated with Latino voters in general: “work.” Their number 1 concern? The economy. In 2016, <30% voted for Trump. But realistically, depending on their locations, Latinos can be:
-Service workers in Nevada being impacted by lockdowns and restrictions
-College-educated Mexican-Americans working from home in Arizona
-Rio Grande Valley third-generation Latinos who are worried about the border
-Puerto Ricans in NYC worried about racial tensions
-Cuban-American small business owners in a Florida area that’s majority Latino
Not all of these groups are natural Democratic voters at all. They may vote against Trump, and their experiences may make them hesitate to vote GOP, but they may identify with center or more right-leaning beliefs. From one of the focus groups that the 538 guests conducted, there were Latino voters that agreed with the GOP on many areas, but couldn’t bring themselves to vote for the GOP because of the history and general rhetoric. But the GOP doesn’t need the majority of Latinos. They just need enough of them in swing and competitive races to win. The Latino vote share in Nevada increased in 2020, and the majority voted for the Democrats, but at a lower rate compared to 2016. The Democrats’ thinking that more minority voters = more wins doesn’t necessarily hold. If the Latino vote increases slightly but there’s a shift to the right, that won’t help them in a state like Nevada.
There was recent data that the Democrats have a bigger advantage among the college educated than among minorities. That’s a problem form Democrats, particularly in a state like Nevada, where less than 30% of adults have a college degree.
The top issues boil down to the economy. Crime is also high on the list. Despite Biden’s accomplishments, he can’t wave a magic wand to change everything economically. Nor can he address very local issues (the minority voters discussed above vary widely from area to area). The makes Democrats vulnerable in a lot of places. It’s also led to pushback on Progessives locally (see SF school board and DA as an example).
The Democrats poured a lot of money into MAGA candidates during the primaries to make races easier. It could definitely pay off. Otherwise, even races like NY governor could be at risk (the GOP candidate Lee Zeldin is a Jan 6 Trumper, so Hocul should be fine). But for races with the empty suit (not full MAGA) GOP (see Glenn Youngkin’s win in VA in 2021 or John James’ close loss to Gary Peters as examples). O’Dea, the senate candidate in Colorado is another underdog, but he’s an anti-Trump (backed by DeSantis) general right-winger. How close he gets could be another warning sign.
The WSJ recently had an article that suburban women are shifting back to the GOP.
If the Dems are losing minority voters, losing non-educated voters, and losing suburban women, how many seats in the House and Senate are they going to end up with by 2024?
America’s “what have you done for me lately” culture extends to all people. The Trump era allowed the Democrats to flourish among minority voters, suburbanites, etc. Trump actively turned off Latino voters that might have considered the GOP. In non-Trump elections, however, while MAGA turnout might be lower, the number of voters with the mentality (“Democrats aren’t doing it for me right now. Let me try this generic Republican”) could rise.
Now, despite all the doom-mongering, the Democrats are probably doing better than one would expect given the first midterm trend and the poor economic outlook (not really Dems’ fault but still). But this election and the next could give the Dems a reckoning they didn’t want.
We shall see how it turns out. With so many close races, a higher (or lower) than expected turnout in some voter blocs could change everything.
