Excellent OP Zlen, love the Talking Heads references. With that front-three moving ominously towards their 2017/18 form of late, I’m reminded of a couple of lines from “What A Day That Was” off Stop Making Sense (I believe it was originally a David Byrne tune). It most definitely sums up what Arsenal faced on Saturday and what I’m hoping City will find too irresistible for them on Thursday:
“They're movin’ forward and backwards,
They’re movin’ backwards and front,
And they're enjoying themselves,
Moving in ev’ry direction.”
There is of course a well warranted fear of opening old scars, of trying only to once again fall flat on your face. It’s understandable really. For every magic moment we saw recently there is the flipside memory. For each time Gini spins with three midfielders on his ass there is a memory of our captain giving the ball to Demba Ba, for every mazy run by Mo there is a memory of Ramos breaking our dreams with a judo move. But just try and resist looking at these expectations of opening old wounds as a good enough reason to detach yourself even a little bit from what is happening right now.
Hear hear. Couldn’t agree more with that. The journey isn’t the
only thing, you obviously want to see it through to the end. At the same time, it must be a miserable existence if the five months of 2013/14 when Brendan’s Reds were the best team in the land and we were going to win the league, or the run to Kiev last season automatically meant nothing next to Gerrard’s slip or Karius’ blunders.
I’ve never felt more gutted watching football than I did after those games, especially the Chelsea one, but that doesn’t negate anything that came before in the slightest. For that reason, I’m both nightmare- and banter-resistant about the Demba Ba goal. Those scars are healed. It was a wonderful season given to us by a flawed team that ultimately wasn’t good enough to get over the line, but I have only fond memories because I kicked every ball along the way. The journey is the experience, and that’s what we’re in the middle of right now. In the end, years from now, the trophy will be a number on the roll of honour. Your personal memories are what will invest that number with meaning and make it special. So we should all be relishing every single moment of this, win or lose.
We aren't walking through the storm now - we are the storm.
As Omar Little would say, “oh indeed”. And on that note, onto the game...
Klopp’s record against Guardiola since they’ve both been in England is impressive. Played 7, won 4. Lost only 1, namely when the wheels came off in spectacular fashion in this fixture last season. City eventually won that game 5-0, of course, but it shouldn’t be forgotten that Liverpool also went 4-1 and 3-0 up against them in two of last season’s other fixtures, games where both teams had their
full compliment of players on the pitch. In the process, the Reds often made a record-breaking team that went on to reach the 100-point mark for the first time ever in the English top flight look distinctly ordinary.
The game earlier this season at Anfield was in marked contrast. 4 shots on target throughout the 90 minutes was no doubt a disappointing return for neutrals who had gorged on 18 goals in the four meetings between these sides in 2017/18, yet both managers seemed content enough with the outcome, even if Mahrez’s penalty miss at the end is surely something that must still play on Guardiola’s mind every so often. On paper City’s hardest fixture of the season, it kept their noses in front at the top of the table, while for Klopp it brought the curtain down on an intese period of 7 games in 23 days of Premier League, Champions League and League Cup action sandwiched between international breaks with his side still level on points with both City and Chelsea.
The nature of that game wasn’t altogether unprecedented, either. The first meeting between the two men in England, at Anfield on New Year’s Eve 2016, was also a cagey affair that saw only 3 shots mustered on target, Gini Wijnaldum’s superb header Liverpool’s only accurate effort in a 1-0 win for the Reds. And my gut-feeling right now is that Thursday’s game could provide more of the same, as opposed to the thrilling displays of attacking football we’ve witnessed between these sides in the past. Just a hunch.
Liverpool’s defensive organisation has been superb this season — 8 goals conceded in 20 league games tells its own story. Leaving aside the second-string team selected against Chelsea in the League Cup, only Red Star and PSG’s superstars (twice) have managed more than a single goal in 26 games against the Reds in all competitions, and even then they were limited to a brace apiece on each occasion. This consistency has often been achieved with a rotating cast alongside Van Dijk at centre-back, with Gomez (primarily), Matip and now Lovren partnering the big man at various times. Collectively, the team hasn’t missed a beat.
What this says to me is that Klopp doesn’t necessarily have to make special plans for City or any grand deviations in terms of his formation, particularly in defence. Agüero, Sané, Sterling, Mahrez, these are known quantities. If his players are as organised as they normally are and each of them play at something approaching their best, Klopp will back them to get the better of their opponents in the key match-ups. Out of the players available to him, the back-five and front-three pick themselves. The only major question is which three players line up in midfield, a crucial one, but at the very least whoever gets the nod there should possess enough flexibility amongst themselves to make minor adjustments on the fly depending on how the game is going.
Wijnaldum is a definite starter, I would say, and I reckon the manager will want Henderson too. If Milner is fit, I actually think he would be minded to go with the same midfield that ended last season for this game. Personally, that would be a concern. The ability to cope with City’s press without giving them possession back cheaply in key areas will be very important, as will the ability to carry the ball through midfield in order to break lines and cause a bit of chaos (Oxlade-Chamberlain’s ability to do this wreaked absolute havoc with City in the games last season). As much as they all have plenty of merits individually, collectively that midfield has too often given Liverpool too little of a foothold in games. For all of these reasons, Keita could be an interesting shout to start this one. Shaqiri, I would imagine, will be kept in reserve.
Guardiola has the much tougher task of the two managers on Thursday, something I certainly wouldn’t have predicted at the start of December. Even leaving aside the points deficit, he will be keenly aware that his team is facing a very tough nut on Thursday, whereas to Klopp, City will surely be looking vulnerable after their struggles of late (no clean sheet in their last 10 games in all competitions stretching back to West Ham on 24 November, 3 losses in their last 5 league games). On the other hand, Pep also knows better than anyone that this opponent has the potential to tear you to ribbons if given time and space to play, and not even that much of either. What’s more, with 14 scored in their last 4 games, Liverpool are running into goalscoring form at the right time.
In some ways, then, the Manchester City boss is between a rock and a hard place — over-commit in attack, something they can usually do with impunity against the league’s lesser lights, and he runs the risk that Liverpool will simply repel his team and counter to devastating effect; set up cautiously in a game he needs to win, and he runs the risk that it will peter out into a draw that would suit his opponents nicely and leave City 7 points behind their rivals.
It’s the kind of “pick your poison” scenario that the great Liverpool sides of the past offered their opponents on a weekly basis — if you want a fight, we’ll fight you; if you want to go toe-to-toe, goal-for-goal, we’ll outscore you; and if you want a cagey defensive battle, we’ll keep a clean sheet and back our lads to score once, no problem. This team has that kind of feel about it, and it’s thrilling.
When it comes time for Guardiola to make that choice (well, I guess he’s choosing as I type), I can’t help remembering the words attributed to him in the aftermath of another must-win game, this time for Bayern Munich in the second-leg of the 2014 Champions League semi-final. 0-1 down from the first leg away to Real Madrid, Guardiola supposedly agonised over his tactical approach for days, second-guessing himself, going back and forth. His eventual line-up was far too attacking, and Real ripped them limb from limb, winning 4-0. Afterwards, Pep is supposed to have said: “I got it wrong man. I got it totally wrong. It’s a monumental fuck-up. A total mess. The biggest fuck-up of my life as a coach.”
Would he risk that happening again (make no mistake, it could if his tactical approach is wrong)? It’s difficult to say. Others will know more about the intricacies of Guardiola’s philosophy and approach than I do (there’s some great stuff in
HBHR’s thread, for example), but he does seem like a coach whose ideology and “vision“ is very important to him.
His reaction to the 1-1 draw against Liverpool in this fixture in 2016/17, for example, appeared to be one of extreme pride despite dropping two points: “Congratulations to Liverpool and Manchester City. It is one of the days I am proud the most. I have not had a long career as manager and it is one of the most special days of my life.” The way his side had played in what was admittedly a cracking game clearly meant a lot to him (Klopp was more far circumspect: “I struggled on the final whistle to be really happy but it’s a success to get a point at City and to play like this.”)
As a coach you do have to be yourself, and that’s likely to ring truer than most for Guardiola after a career spent chasing perfection at Barcelona, Bayern and now City with players who are so good that you rarely have to tell them to take a backwards step for anyone. Yet isn’t that exactly what he did at Anfield in October? After conceding 7 goals on their two visits last season, his approach that day screamed “this lot are pretty good, you know, we need to be a bit careful here.” Playing at home with a 7-point gap to close might look like it calls for a different approach, but if he goes toe-to-toe I would back this Liverpool defence to concede the same as, or fewer than, City’s 8 times out of 10.
It’s a big moment for Pep, and I think he’ll carry a certain amount of due caution into it. Having said that, Liverpool started slowly against Arsenal, as they have in a number of games this season, and the Gunners admittedly played better in the opening ten minutes or so before scoring the goal that poked the bear. For that reason, and recalling the quick start they made in the second-leg of the Champions League quarter-final last season, I think City will look to blitz Liverpool in the first 10/15 minutes and force a goal or two, banking on Klopp’s team starting the game cautiously (as most teams would in such a difficult away game). Whatever the score is at that point, be it 0-0 or, Pep will hope, 1-0 or 2-0, I reckon their approach will then be more in keeping with what we saw at Anfield in October. If it happens that it’s still 0-0, I think he’ll rely on his front four to create something and then look to really go for it and commit additional bodies late on if necessary.
For Liverpool, as I touched upon, the approach doesn’t really change too much. They’ll certainly have to soak up a ton of early pressure, during which time Van Dijk and his back four will need to lead, and then the game will settle and the two key players in terms of controlling it from there, in my view, will be Gini and Bobby, maybe Naby if he plays. Those are the ones who will need to give the team that necessary platform higher up the pitch. If we can establish that, I have zero worries about breaching the City defence at least once, but that certainly won’t happen if Liverpool’s midfield is sitting on top of its back four for too much of the game. For that reason, I’m hoping either Hendo or Milner starts on the bench, although not necessarily both.
Despite their recent struggles, City evidently remain a superb side, full of pace, craft and lethal finishers. They are one of the best club sides in the world, and they could win this game easily if the Reds have a bad night at the office. But they were all of those things last season as well, when Liverpool beat them three times out of four.
I do wonder if the fact that Klopp has managed underdogs for his entire managerial career gives him an edge against Guardiola that he will never lose, an extra dimension that his opponent can never have while he continues moving from one embarrassment of riches to the next. At Barcelona, at Bayern, at City last season, the players at his disposal were sent out to play their game, Pep’s game, and they were usually good enough to simply outclass their opponents. Klopp, on the other hand, has had to prepare for wealthier opponents, stronger opponents, his entire career, so often planning in the knowledge that his men were up against superior forces. On Thursday night, for perhaps the first time in their rivalry, he may have the upper-hand, albeit a narrow one, his men become the storm itself rather than the one they have to walk through. It remains to be seen if Pep can adapt to that possibility, but one thing is for sure: if Jürgen Klopp leads his men to victory and a 10-point lead on Thursday night, it will remove all doubt, for now at least.
“I’m dreaming of a city
It was my own invention,
I put the wheels in motion
A time for big decisions”.
