An Overview of Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool
Part 1 - Belief: The Success that was and that could have been.
It ended with not so much a song, but a battle cry, a call-to-arms for his successor, delivered in the way no other manager could. Whilst he was at the centre of so many minds on Sunday afternoon, Jurgen Klopp, as always, showed off the qualities that make him great by taking the microphone and turning the attention onto other people, onto the wider picture with the aim of inspiring a greater future for us all.
In the wake of Jurgen Klopp’s final game as Liverpool manager, I’ve delved into the data surrounding his tenure at the club to see just how miraculous his spell has been when given the full context of where he started from, what resources he had to work with and who he was competing against, but to start with it seems only right to focus on the less tangible qualities that defined his term. His seemingly innate abilities to understand people and to work a crowd shined through until the very end as he turned what most had expected to be a sad occasion into a joyous one, with a focus on the club’s future that is by no means a guarantee for a departing manager. The message was clear, this isn’t about Klopp, it never has been, particularly for Klopp himself.
Picture: Jurgen Klopp begins a chant for incoming Arne Slot after his final game in charge at Anfield. (Peter Byrne/PA Images via Getty Images)
The sheer humanity of the man has been enough to reinvigorate the supporters and the players at Liverpool to harness the central theme of his spell for greater success, that theme is belief. All of Klopp’s greatest moments stem from the core idea that to overcome an obstacle, you must first believe you can do so. This central philosophy has undoubtedly translated into success, which is a fact that is clear as day when you look at the underlying metrics of Klopp’s time at Liverpool. These numbers were not only surprising but help to give greater insight into modern football in the Premier League as a whole and into the size of the achievements accomplished by Klopp.
Let’s start by looking at the overarching numbers to provide context on what he inherited versus what he was able to achieve during his tenure:
Table 1: Eight seasons prior to Klopp vs the eight full seasons with him, ignoring crossover 2015-16 season (except for runner up row)
We can see in striking terms the resurrection achieved by Liverpool under Klopp’s management, best exemplified by the increase in not only the trophy haul but also the near misses too. Whereas prior to Klopp, Liverpool had become a side barely challenging for silverware, now they were frequently either winning competitions or coming a close second. In fact, of the competitions entered by Liverpool during Klopp’s time, they won more than 20% of them and came second in additional 20%. Those numbers represent an astonishing feat given unparallel level of competition he faced across his eight and a half years in charge.
The reasons behind this success can be shown through the high-level metrics of the league campaigns under Klopp when compared to the previous eight years, going back to Rafael Benitez’s best sides, which show an improvement across the board. On average, Jurgen lifted his side more than two places per season, cementing Liverpool’s place in the top four, a level maintained in all but one of his full seasons in charge. This improvement was driven by their increased efficiency in front of goal as their output increased by almost 16 goals per season, leading them to on average 14 more points per season, firmly sticking to the old adage that every goal is worth a point.
Picture: Liverpool celebrating a goal has become a more familiar sight under Klopp with almost 16 more goals per season than previously.
One area where improvements appear less impressive are the changes in Liverpool’s defensive numbers which although improved are less dramatic than that seen in the goals for column. This is in part due to the fantastic defensive record achieved under Rafael Benitez in the earliest phase of the previous eight years used for comparison and it’s still worth noting that the three-goal swing represents a nearly 8% improvement. Perhaps though, this is one of the key areas for next era to concentrate on if Liverpool are to try and build upon Klopp’s legacy.
Focusing on Klopp’s record in games as Liverpool manager we can see just how successful he was a creating a side who not only knew how to win, but was hard to beat compared to previous Liverpool managers:
Table 2: Record of all Liverpool manager’s with at least 50 games in charge since the 1950s ranked by equivalent points per game (with 3 points given for a win)
These statistics represent the best output of any Liverpool manager in history, both in terms of win percentage and equivalent points per game (though behind Kenny Dalglish if we only use his first stint, a side hailed as probably the best in Liverpool’s history). In fact, out of all the managers in recent history in English football, Klopp’s record only sits behind a certain Pep Guardiola when it comes to these statistics. He tops Ferguson, Wenger and Mourinho across their time in English football, yet ends up behind them in terms of overall success due to the competition he faced throughout his time in charge. It’s hard to argue that if Klopp’s Liverpool had existed at any of stage in English football’s history, they would have been anything other than all conquering given the staggering numbers they put together over an extended period.
It is worth dwelling on the context that saw a manager with more 90+ point seasons than Alex Ferguson achieved at Manchester United coming away with a single Premier League title. Thirteen teams across five clubs have achieved such incredible points totals and only two of those sides have not been crowned champions, both Liverpool sides under Jurgen Klopp. You can add to that the fact that both of those sides reached a Champions League final in the same season as those near misses with the 97 points in 2018-19 still a record for the most points achieved by a Champions League winner (ahead of the 2014-15 Barcelona side who achieved 96 points), even though this didn’t translate into what would have been an historic double.
Picture: Jurgen Klopp’s record stands comfortably alongside the previous greats to have had the Liverpool manager’s job. (AFP/Getty Images)
Such is the culture in football, these near misses are dismissed as almost insignificant and certainly would not be labelled achievements since they ultimately were not rewarded with silverware, even when the level reached by the sides far exceeded that of those previous league champions who failed to reach even 80 points, and in fact surpassed the point totals set by 25 of the previous 26 champions (only topped by the 100 points attained by Man City in the season before). The greatness of these campaigns under Klopp is demonstrated in the table below:
Table 3: Premier League seasons that achieved 90 points or greater, ranked by first points total and then goal difference
Add to the context of these points hauls the manner in which they were achieved, and they become even more staggering. Whilst the other clubs surrounding them in the table above were funded by unprecedented wealth, Klopp has built his sides from the ground up on a budget that the club themselves could sustain without needing to rely on the limitlessly deep pockets of a Russian Oligarch or a Gulf-state. The side he took over was by no means ready to win major silverware, yet with a net spend lower than the likes of West Ham, Newcastle and Aston Villa, he turned them into perennial winners able to challenge for honours on all fronts.
Looking at the state of the squad in 2015-16, they were actually performing around what you’d expect even if the club expected more due to its historical standing in English football:
Table 4: Squad overview of ‘Big 6’ clubs from the 2015-16 season looking at squad size, age and value.
Their squad ranked as the fifth most valuable in the division, but this number was perhaps inflated by their bloated squad of 44 compared to the likes of Tottenham on 31. The true quality of the depth in their squad is probably best represented by the average of market value of which at €8.53 million lags well behind the rest of the top 6, and whilst the squad was young, so potential could have seen the value increase, the market values were still on average more than a third lower than the likes of Chelsea and Manchester City, who would go on to share the next three titles between them.
Picture: Since 2015, Klopp has helped transform the Liverpool squad in terms of players and mentality. (Alex Livesey/Getty Images)
Compare those numbers to the state in which Klopp leaves the club and it is interesting to see how Liverpool’s standings within that top 6 have changed:
Table 5: Squad overview of ‘Big 6’ clubs from the 2023-24 season looking at squad size, age and value.
The first thing that is clear is that landscape of football has changed. Due to restrictions around squad sizes and the number of loanees permitted, squad sizes have shrunk, which in turn has increased the average ages of the squad as well as the average market values as the younger players are left in the academies longer or sold sooner, and the lower ranking members of the squad are released. Also, the average transfer fee has dramatically increased in the aftermath of Neymar’s record breaking 2017 move to PSG, which has seen market value’s soar.
Whilst the relative state of play for Liverpool might not seem to have drastically changed, with their ranking moving just one place, from fifth to fourth, and the massive gap to Manchester City’s value has actually grown in real and relative terms, it is actually a much more positive picture than that of nine seasons previous. They’ve pulled clear of Tottenham, stormed past Manchester United, narrowed the gap on Chelsea in terms of total value, whilst overtaking them for average value and they have managed to consistently overperform relative to their squad value, a true mark of effective management. This is also just a snapshot in time, with the club’s current state of transition on the field perhaps reflected in the market values which tend to reach their maximums during the peak of a project, as they did with Liverpool in 2019-20 when they sat almost neck and neck with Manchester City at the top of this same chart.
The means for getting to this place should also be examined to see the quality of the job executed under the leadership of Klopp. A team’s total market value is generally impacted through two means, player development and in the transfer market, where the transfer fee paid differs from the realised value of a player, either positively or negatively. The table below shows how market value changes compare to net transfer spend, and can help us understand the source of a team’s overall value shifting:
Table 6: Net Spent versus Value Change of clubs between 2015-16 and 2023-24, showing the value added outside of spend
This one table shows just how successful Jurgen Klopp and the club’s structure have been at managing the playing squad. Not only do Liverpool have the lowest spend and lowest net spend of the top six, whilst being the second most successful in terms of trophies, they are also the only club of the top six whose squad value has increased by more than their net spend, showing that Liverpool are creating value either by identifying transfer targets who are undervalued and then demonstrating this value to the world, or by developing the players on their books to become more valuable assets, or more likely in this case through both of these means.
As shown by the table above, football clubs and particularly Premier League football clubs waste money as a rule, even in an age of ever-increasing data reliance, so for Klopp to begin his tenure with the fifth highest squad value, then spend significantly less than the rest of the top six on both an actual and a net basis, by more than double in most cases, and to improve their relative standing whilst managing to be the bring about the most successful period in the club’s modern history is an astounding achievement that few, if any, other manager could replicate to such a degree.
During this time, Liverpool’s success on the field also translated to greater sources of income from elsewhere including increased prize money, TV revenue, sponsorship, and commercial deals to name but a few, which helped fund one of the highest wage bills in the league, a wage bill pushed upwards largely due to the win bonuses that were driven by this same success. This is the self-sustaining route to success that had long been forgotten by football clubs, a level achieved without the need for foreign investment or ownership, success that could have been possible for a supporter-owned Liverpool to achieve. This success should have been unparalleled and heralded as such, but it was not, and it did not quite reach the lofty heights that history suggests it should have. Instead, it was outdone by a side followed by the spectre of understandable allegations of sportswashing and stained by the as-of-yet unpunished 115 charges relating to financial misconduct.
Liverpool’s time under Klopp was filled with great moments, but also a sense of what could have been. (Getty)
We will never know what may have become of Klopp’s Liverpool had they not come up against the relentless machine that they did, but what we can see is that they produced brilliant moments along the way as they came as close to perfection as any football side has ever done, amassing more points across a 38 game stretch than any side in history (110 points from March 2019 to February 2020), and coming closer to an unprecedented quadruple than any other side in history. All these incredible feats were achieved through means that are as unblemished as you could hope for in modern football and given the right set of circumstances, they are also means that are obtainable to any club that grows efficiently whilst operating within its means given enough time, even if that time frame is more than a decade long. Perhaps this view will never be shared outside of the club and its fanbase, but to those people at least, for a period of time, Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool represented a club as close to the pinnacle of the sport as anyone as ever come, and though they fell just short, they offered up hope that the seemingly impossible could be overcome.
The modern football landscape is enough to turn any football zealot into a nihilist, filling them with enough disillusionment and revulsion to turn them away from the once beautiful game, and yet against these odds Jurgen Klopp managed to offer up a modern religious experience, turning doubters into believers, allowing the most romantic of supporter bases to fall in love once more.
