Author Topic: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)  (Read 1034550 times)

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Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)
« Reply #14320 on: April 17, 2024, 06:43:07 pm »
In most threads you're the bad guy if you're too negative about a player and it's seen as reasonable to be very down on posters who are. See the way AL is spoken about in the Endo thread. But in the Darwin thread it's his defenders who get the tone police on them and the comments about Nunez being a 'donkey' are almost entirely ignored. What's wild about that is Darwin deserves a lot more defending because even some of his detractors (or at least those questioning his finishing ability, like Lallana and babel who, btw are doing so in a really interesting thought through way) are admitting he's doing an awful lot right and we'd probably struggle to improve upon him.

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Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)
« Reply #14321 on: April 17, 2024, 07:23:47 pm »
In most threads you're the bad guy if you're too negative about a player and it's seen as reasonable to be very down on posters who are. See the way AL is spoken about in the Endo thread. But in the Darwin thread it's his defenders who get the tone police on them and the comments about Nunez being a 'donkey' are almost entirely ignored. What's wild about that is Darwin deserves a lot more defending because even some of his detractors (or at least those questioning his finishing ability, like Lallana and babel who, btw are doing so in a really interesting thought through way) are admitting he's doing an awful lot right and we'd probably struggle to improve upon him.

to be honest mate I think a decent amount of people wanna have decent reasoned discussions about our players, calling him a donkey doesn't tend to lend itself to reasoned debate so people are more likely not to engage. Again I dont agree with some peoples approach or delivery but on the whole I think most of us just dont like being talked down to for disagreeing. It happens around the forum as a first choice of approach too often. I once asked in the Newcastle thread about the thread title as I genuinely didn't know anything about the story and had someone jump down my throat as if i'd slandered an entire group of people, sometimes just talking to people like it is what it is (a discussion) goes a long way, if someones not been rude or an asshole or just wants to learn, talking to them like they're beneath you or stupid isn't gonna go down well. Calling Nunez a donkey is just gonna get ignored because sometimes it's not worth the hassle of disagreeing with some things, especially something so many disagree with.

Its also not a contest, we're all just discussing Nunez and the many facets of his game. There will always be opposing views but he gets plentyyyyy of support on here and seems loved among our fanbase.

For me some of the takes go a little too far but we can agree to disagree on things. I'd be interested to hear more from those discussing their takes from a statistical point of view and your opposing views on great finishers etc. It's intriguing to see from a statistics point of view the nuances between if it's deemed a thing or not. One of you seems to think it is while you seem more of the belief that it isn't
« Last Edit: April 17, 2024, 07:27:57 pm by RyanBabel19 »

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Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)
« Reply #14322 on: April 17, 2024, 07:46:06 pm »
One thing we can at least all agree on is that Ryan Babel is a much better poster then he was a player.

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Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)
« Reply #14323 on: April 17, 2024, 07:46:34 pm »
I don't know what Suarez's numbers were when he missed a boat load of chances initially here like Nunez but I can clearly see shot technique and decision making was a world apart between their first awful seasons. That's something you can see with your eyes.

The team Suarez joined was far worse than the one Nunez joined. I'm not buying the comparisons between the two. You could see Suarez had some magic, even if he didn't score a boatload.
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Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)
« Reply #14324 on: April 17, 2024, 07:58:13 pm »
I don't know what Suarez's numbers were when he missed a boat load of chances initially here like Nunez but I can clearly see shot technique and decision making was a world apart between their first awful seasons. That's something you can see with your eyes.



As you can see only terrible players miss lots of chances.
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Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)
« Reply #14325 on: April 17, 2024, 08:43:33 pm »
For those calling out Darwin, I would ask if they would be happy if we sold him to Utd or Arsenal? Would you be happy playing against him, personally think you would be terrified as you know there is a great player in him.

Look at Havertz first two seasons,  people just need some patience. Attitude is the most important elment to any player and he has it spades.

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Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)
« Reply #14326 on: April 17, 2024, 09:08:14 pm »


As you can see only terrible players miss lots of chances.

But that's just my point. I was trying to emphasise why the eye test is relevant. When Suarez was missing all those chances I remember still thinking this guy is good. Purely down to shot technique and selection. On his missed shots.

I do not get that same feeling from watching Nunez miss. Poor shot choice, timing, technique and execution. Now imagine their xG was similar? Since they both missed loads. Mind you I don't know if it was because we didn't have xG around then but this why you can't just look at numbers and "ignore your eyes" like some are saying in here.

Darwin can still come good. But as of now I'm not wrong to hold the opinion that I do not consider him an elite forward.
« Last Edit: April 17, 2024, 09:10:33 pm by PaleBlueDot »

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Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)
« Reply #14327 on: April 17, 2024, 09:23:27 pm »
But that's just my point. I was trying to emphasise why the eye test is relevant. When Suarez was missing all those chances I remember still thinking this guy is good. Purely down to shot technique and selection. On his missed shots.

I do not get that same feeling from watching Nunez miss. Poor shot choice, timing, technique and execution. Now imagine their xG was similar? Since they both missed loads. Mind you I don't know if it was because we didn't have xG around then but this why you can't just look at numbers and "ignore your eyes" like some are saying in here.

Darwin can still come good. But as of now I'm not wrong to hold the opinion that I do not consider him an elite forward.

You say that but I remember the Suarez thread on here at the time, it was full of people saying we needed to hire a striker coach to show him how to finish, how we couldn't rely on him for goals, how he'd never be a good finisher at the top level and even Kezman had gotten more goals in the Dutch league, how we should shift him to the wing etc. There are actually a lot of parallels with then and the current Núñez talk.

Have you actually gone back and watched Suarez' misses and woodwork hits from his first season and a half? I'd be interested in watching that video if it exists.

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Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)
« Reply #14328 on: April 17, 2024, 10:01:53 pm »


As you can see only terrible players miss lots of chances.

Unfortunately if you had any of them four bearing down on goal, you’d have a lot more confidence in them scoring than Darwin. Most of us expect him to miss more than score let’s be honest

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Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)
« Reply #14329 on: April 17, 2024, 10:05:52 pm »
You say that but I remember the Suarez thread on here at the time, it was full of people saying we needed to hire a striker coach to show him how to finish, how we couldn't rely on him for goals, how he'd never be a good finisher at the top level and even Kezman had gotten more goals in the Dutch league, how we should shift him to the wing etc. There are actually a lot of parallels with then and the current Núñez talk.

Have you actually gone back and watched Suarez' misses and woodwork hits from his first season and a half? I'd be interested in watching that video if it exists.

Exactly.

https://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2012/mar/05/liverpool-luis-suarez
From the Guardian.



Luis Suárez is this season's most talked about player, yet so little talk has been about his football. Suárez is a fascinating player because he has an unusual style of play – it's difficult to think of another player, past or present, to liken him to. He's a small, quick dribbler who enjoys roaming the pitch laterally, yet was also a brilliant poacher in his Ajax days. The first half of that description holds true for his 14 months at Liverpool, but he is yet to prove he has the finishing ability of old. That is crucial, considering Liverpool have the worst shot conversion rate in the league, at 9%, and have scored as few goals as Wolves, in the relegation zone.

Suárez's goal return this season is, in isolation, extremely disappointing. He's scored six goals from 21 appearances, a similar record to West Brom's Shane Long, and worse than Norwich's Steve Morison or Bolton's Ivan Klasnic. It's hardly unprecedented for a striker to arrive from the Eredivisie and be significantly less prolific in the Premier League, but Suárez is clearly no Afonso Alves or Mateja Kezman – he's not overawed by the league, he's not playing badly, he's just not scoring enough.

Six goals doesn't look much better when you consider that Suárez has 4.2 shots per game – only Wayne Rooney and Robin van Persie have more, and they've scored 18 and 25 goals respectively. But shots per game is a statistic open to interpretation and debate, and Suárez epitomises the uncertainly with which it should be viewed. Players with a high shots per game rate are generally exceptional performers – from Europe's top five leagues, first and second by that measure are Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi. The main thing this says is that they're constant threat, which is something Suárez – to a lesser extent – also offers.

Glenn Hoddle once said that Andy Cole needed six or seven chances to score one goal, which was an extremely harsh reflection on an excellent striker, especially as the criticism stuck with Cole for the rest of his career. But if, for a second, we take Hoddle's view as gospel (which is always a slightly dangerous game), was Cole's problem that he needed six or seven chances? Or that he needed six or seven chances that had been created by others? Cole wasn't simply a finisher, but he was predominantly a penalty box player. The apparent wastefulness was more obvious when it came at the end of a swerving David Beckham cross, from a lofted Paul Scholes pass or following a surging Ryan Giggs dribble. It looked as if he was letting the side down, ruining someone else's good work.

Suárez is completely different. If Cole's need for six or seven chances was worthy of criticism, Suárez's record of scoring a goal every 14.8 shots is truly terrible (with the caveat that a "shot" is not quite the same as a "chance"). If he were a pure poacher, that ratio would be worthy of a place on the bench.
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Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)
« Reply #14330 on: April 17, 2024, 10:16:58 pm »
Exactly.

https://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2012/mar/05/liverpool-luis-suarez
From the Guardian.



Luis Suárez is this season's most talked about player, yet so little talk has been about his football. Suárez is a fascinating player because he has an unusual style of play – it's difficult to think of another player, past or present, to liken him to. He's a small, quick dribbler who enjoys roaming the pitch laterally, yet was also a brilliant poacher in his Ajax days. The first half of that description holds true for his 14 months at Liverpool, but he is yet to prove he has the finishing ability of old. That is crucial, considering Liverpool have the worst shot conversion rate in the league, at 9%, and have scored as few goals as Wolves, in the relegation zone.

Suárez's goal return this season is, in isolation, extremely disappointing. He's scored six goals from 21 appearances, a similar record to West Brom's Shane Long, and worse than Norwich's Steve Morison or Bolton's Ivan Klasnic. It's hardly unprecedented for a striker to arrive from the Eredivisie and be significantly less prolific in the Premier League, but Suárez is clearly no Afonso Alves or Mateja Kezman – he's not overawed by the league, he's not playing badly, he's just not scoring enough.

Six goals doesn't look much better when you consider that Suárez has 4.2 shots per game – only Wayne Rooney and Robin van Persie have more, and they've scored 18 and 25 goals respectively. But shots per game is a statistic open to interpretation and debate, and Suárez epitomises the uncertainly with which it should be viewed. Players with a high shots per game rate are generally exceptional performers – from Europe's top five leagues, first and second by that measure are Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi. The main thing this says is that they're constant threat, which is something Suárez – to a lesser extent – also offers.

Glenn Hoddle once said that Andy Cole needed six or seven chances to score one goal, which was an extremely harsh reflection on an excellent striker, especially as the criticism stuck with Cole for the rest of his career. But if, for a second, we take Hoddle's view as gospel (which is always a slightly dangerous game), was Cole's problem that he needed six or seven chances? Or that he needed six or seven chances that had been created by others? Cole wasn't simply a finisher, but he was predominantly a penalty box player. The apparent wastefulness was more obvious when it came at the end of a swerving David Beckham cross, from a lofted Paul Scholes pass or following a surging Ryan Giggs dribble. It looked as if he was letting the side down, ruining someone else's good work.

Suárez is completely different. If Cole's need for six or seven chances was worthy of criticism, Suárez's record of scoring a goal every 14.8 shots is truly terrible (with the caveat that a "shot" is not quite the same as a "chance"). If he were a pure poacher, that ratio would be worthy of a place on the bench.

Is this from his first season?

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Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)
« Reply #14331 on: April 17, 2024, 10:52:13 pm »
Is this from his first season?

The March of his 2nd season.
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Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)
« Reply #14332 on: April 17, 2024, 11:21:54 pm »
The March of his 2nd season.

Was that the season we scored 47 goals in 38 games? Suarez still scored 11 goals in 31 games...sounds familiar ;)

There are definitely a few parallels to be drawn between Suarez and Nunez. Both Uruguayan, both absolutely wild, and both very talented. And yes, there's the profligacy in front of goal. I remember being at West Brom away on the first day of the following season, and I'm pretty sure Suarez missed at least one sitter in that match, if not two. I'd be lying if I said at that point I saw 23 goals followed by the best individual season in PL history coming, even though he was clearly an absolutely ridiculous footballer.

Nunez clearly has similar improvement in him. He easily has 20 league goals in him. It really wouldn't take an awful lot for that to happen. However, anyone expecting Darwin Nunez to become as good as Luis Suarez probably needs to give their head a wobble. They're a long way apart in terms of football intelligence, and ability frankly. Nunez is coming from a lower base now than Suarez in 2011-12.

Suarez, for my money, is the best striker since the Brazilian Ronaldo. The man scored 31 non-penalty league goals in 33 games for us, and then went and banged 37 non-penalty league goals in 35 games for Barca two seasons later. All while being an absolute genius and creating bucket loads of chances for the likes of Sterling*, Sturridge, Neymar and Messi. I've been impressed by Nunez's relationship with Salah, but otherwise I don't think he's as consistently creative as some of the number crunchers on here are making out to be honest.
« Last Edit: April 17, 2024, 11:29:22 pm by LallanaInPyjamas »

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Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)
« Reply #14333 on: April 18, 2024, 04:29:44 am »
I think Darwin needs to be hungrier, he needs to become a goal whore, it should piss him off when he misses the chances he does. He’s playing football and enjoying it where I’d like to see him be a selfish striker a bit nastier and a goal poacher.  Poachers don’t just sit on the 6 yard line they see the chance that split second before anyone else and they’re hungry for it. Darwin has more to his game than that, but he needs to get a bit more into the striker’s mentality. He’s passed the ball on more than a few occasions in good positions where taking a shot was the best option.
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Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)
« Reply #14334 on: April 18, 2024, 07:11:57 am »
If we could swap Nunez for a prime Suarez, of course we would.
But there's no player in the world right now as good as prime Suarez, and the ones that are attainable dont look better than Nunez

I dont see anybody in the Mac thread complain that he's not as good as prime Gerrrard, and that he should therefore be sold

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Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)
« Reply #14335 on: April 18, 2024, 07:32:39 am »
Suarez is a great example. Not because him and Nunez are the same quality but because a whole bunch of people said he wasn’t a good finisher in one season and then he went on to be absolutely prolific in every season following (as he was very effective in Holland before moving to us). So unless he magically improved his finishing in one summer pre season it’s more likely that something else was happening.

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Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)
« Reply #14336 on: April 18, 2024, 08:03:31 am »
Suarez is a great example. Not because him and Nunez are the same quality but because a whole bunch of people said he wasn’t a good finisher in one season and then he went on to be absolutely prolific in every season following (as he was very effective in Holland before moving to us). So unless he magically improved his finishing in one summer pre season it’s more likely that something else was happening.
I believe he did say he stopped trying to be so precise with his finishing, always looking for the very corner, and concentrated more on just getting the shot on target.

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Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)
« Reply #14337 on: April 18, 2024, 08:18:10 am »
I think Nunez looked a lot better when Salah wasn't in the team because more of the play went through Nunez. We need to find a system that plays to the strengths of both players.

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Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)
« Reply #14338 on: April 18, 2024, 08:24:27 am »
I think Nunez looked a lot better when Salah wasn't in the team because more of the play went through Nunez. We need to find a system that plays to the strengths of both players.
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Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)
« Reply #14339 on: April 18, 2024, 09:10:53 am »
I believe he did say he stopped trying to be so precise with his finishing, always looking for the very corner, and concentrated more on just getting the shot on target.

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Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)
« Reply #14340 on: April 18, 2024, 09:11:58 am »
442 big man-little man combination
I would love to see that, or Salah behind Nunez in a 4231.
Mostly because I think it would get us more from the "old" Salah
It will be interesting to see what the new manager will do

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Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)
« Reply #14341 on: April 18, 2024, 09:18:39 am »
I believe he did say he stopped trying to be so precise with his finishing, always looking for the very corner, and concentrated more on just getting the shot on target.

Yes very good advice if you think finishing is basically down to having plenty of high quality shots. 'Stop worrying about it and hit the ball at the goal'.

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Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)
« Reply #14342 on: April 18, 2024, 09:24:57 am »
Yes very good advice if you think finishing is basically down to having plenty of high quality shots. 'Stop worrying about it and hit the ball at the goal'.

The one against Palace, he would have been better off scuffing vaguely towards the corner!
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Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)
« Reply #14343 on: April 18, 2024, 09:27:30 am »
The one against Palace, he would have been better off scuffing vaguely towards the corner!

The number of times an objectively worse strike would have been more likely to score is wild. Now obviously there are times where it’s the opposite but the higher value the shot the more likely that the scruffiest of finishes will do the job.

None of which to say I’m dismissing the concept of ‘finishing skill’ entirely (although as will be obvious from my other posts  I am relativising it)

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Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)
« Reply #14344 on: April 18, 2024, 09:31:35 am »
The one against Palace, he would have been better off scuffing vaguely towards the corner!

There's been a couple of those this season, Palace being the most recent. Where he's caught a shot too perfect when a scuffed shot would have left the keeper with no chance. See Gakpo's goal when it hits his trailing leg and trickles over the line (can't remember who against), sometimes you need luck in those situations

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Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)
« Reply #14345 on: April 18, 2024, 09:38:19 am »
Werner’s an interesting comparison btw. Matched or was above his xG in every season in the Bundesliga, massively underperformed his xG every season in the PL.

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Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)
« Reply #14346 on: April 18, 2024, 09:47:47 am »
The Suarez first season comparison is a little anti-historical in that it's set against a body of work that came good. As a result, his first season is placed in context of what he went on to achieve later in his Liverpool career. Nunez is being judged in the 'now' rather than with hindsight, which is a problematic practice. Arguing that we always knew Suarez was a top finisher is a little disingenuous given his wasteful first season or so.

It's not even that I think Nunez is going to be as good as Suarez, I just think the reasoning being used to beat Nunez with isn't entirely helpful or fair.

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Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)
« Reply #14347 on: April 18, 2024, 09:56:19 am »
The one against Palace, he would have been better off scuffing vaguely towards the corner!

Jackson's goal versus Everton would be an example of that. Similar to Darwin he spins and hits the shot in one. Doesn't make a clean contact though and he scuffs it into the ground. Or De Bruyne last night just puts his foot through it and beats the keeper for pace.

Nunez when he hits it clean tends to hit the keeper or the woodwork.
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Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)
« Reply #14348 on: April 18, 2024, 10:11:23 am »
Going to give someone more versed in this type of thjng a chance to make me look like a fool (educate me).

If a player is out performing their xA is that seen as the player(s) he's passing to generally making 'more' of the pass they're providing, or that the player playing the pass has provided a better chance than the model believes they should from that kind of pass?

Curious about the emerging direction of travel to focus more on Darwins assist stats this season than I've seen previously.

I suspect it's a convenient way to defend him to include them more in conversations at the moment because he's racked up a good amount of assists. So rather than just speaking on his goal output in the PL being a rather paltry 11, the figure thrown out instead is 19 PL g&a which looks a lot more palatable. But that's me being cynical.

Not to throw away the value of an assist, you don't get a goal without an assist. Him making then is good for us. But I was always working under the assumption that assists were kind of a cheap stat? Milner taking the record for assists in a CL season away from the much more creative Rooney and Neymar for example. Those assist numbers didn't tell the full story of his true creativity (love him as I do).

So I'm more intrigued as to what the true 'value' of Darwins assists are? Because g+a per90 doesn't give much detail in so far as what kind of assists those were.

Theres a difference between the value provided by a square ball 30yds out that a player takes up, beats a man and then fires in to the net from 25yds out and a defence splitting pass that sends someone in 1 v 1. Both in terms of how much the assist maker has contributed to the goal and also how repeatable each goal is. Which is baked in the expected side of xA.

So Darwin has a good amount of assists this season, which is great for anyone wanting to throw out his g+a per 90 number. But what's the true value of those assists? He's over performing his xA isn't he? Has he been especially creative?

From memory at least 3 of those assists have been a result of a simple 5yd pass where he has space and we have an overload for Salah to slot. A pass I'd expect any forward to be able to make.

They're the assists you want as a team, the assist the entire team works towards generating, high xG high xA.

But are they evidence of Darwin being especially creative in laying on chances for his teammates which it appears to me is the case being put forward for including them. Or are they evidence of sound coaching, patterns of play, manipulation of attacking scenarios that puts a player in a position to get a fairly simple assist?

Whats out best actual measurement of Darwins creativity in laying in chances for his teammates? It can't simply be assists can it? As g+a per 90 suggests. There's no detail in that.

Genuinely curious about how creativity is measured because it seems especially tricky to me. Especially when you throw in that a player might not be involved in a move at all, but due to good coaching (which I don't believe has a negligible effect) they receive the ball for the first time in a move close to goal in space with time to pick out a teammate who's also in space with time to put the ball in to the net and they're attributed an assist for that, a top line statistic.

xA seems to be a better metric for it, but if Darwin is expect to revert to the mean for his goalscoring then surely he'd do similar for his assist making also and therefore actually provide fewer than he has this season?

It seems to me as if they are actually quite a cheap stat that can be used to 'cheese' a statistical conversation in a players favour?

I'm sure there are better metrics in use and perhaps Darwin measures up very favourably in them(?) but the A element of g+a per 90 just doesn't appear to add much value to conversations in assessing his contributions unless I'm mistaken.

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Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)
« Reply #14349 on: April 18, 2024, 10:15:51 am »
"I'm willing to learn" then writes a load of snide shit about him, pretty funny.


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Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)
« Reply #14350 on: April 18, 2024, 10:24:54 am »
"I'm willing to learn" then writes a load of snide shit about him, pretty funny.

The tone is skeptical, because the post is skeptical.

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Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)
« Reply #14351 on: April 18, 2024, 10:28:58 am »

One thing for sure I would have hated to see him playing or United or Arsenal

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Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)
« Reply #14352 on: April 18, 2024, 10:32:41 am »
Going to give someone more versed in this type of thjng a chance to make me look like a fool (educate me).

If a player is out performing their xA is that seen as the player(s) he's passing to generally making 'more' of the pass they're providing, or that the player playing the pass has provided a better chance than the model believes they should from that kind of pass?

Curious about the emerging direction of travel to focus more on Darwins assist stats this season than I've seen previously.

I suspect it's a convenient way to defend him to include them more in conversations at the moment because he's racked up a good amount of assists. So rather than just speaking on his goal output in the PL being a rather paltry 11, the figure thrown out instead is 19 PL g&a which looks a lot more palatable. But that's me being cynical.

Not to throw away the value of an assist, you don't get a goal without an assist. Him making then is good for us. But I was always working under the assumption that assists were kind of a cheap stat? Milner taking the record for assists in a CL season away from the much more creative Rooney and Neymar for example. Those assist numbers didn't tell the full story of his true creativity (love him as I do).

So I'm more intrigued as to what the true 'value' of Darwins assists are? Because g+a per90 doesn't give much detail in so far as what kind of assists those were.

Theres a difference between the value provided by a square ball 30yds out that a player takes up, beats a man and then fires in to the net from 25yds out and a defence splitting pass that sends someone in 1 v 1. Both in terms of how much the assist maker has contributed to the goal and also how repeatable each goal is. Which is baked in the expected side of xA.

So Darwin has a good amount of assists this season, which is great for anyone wanting to throw out his g+a per 90 number. But what's the true value of those assists? He's over performing his xA isn't he? Has he been especially creative?

From memory at least 3 of those assists have been a result of a simple 5yd pass where he has space and we have an overload for Salah to slot. A pass I'd expect any forward to be able to make.

They're the assists you want as a team, the assist the entire team works towards generating, high xG high xA.

But are they evidence of Darwin being especially creative in laying on chances for his teammates which it appears to me is the case being put forward for including them. Or are they evidence of sound coaching, patterns of play, manipulation of attacking scenarios that puts a player in a position to get a fairly simple assist?

Whats out best actual measurement of Darwins creativity in laying in chances for his teammates? It can't simply be assists can it? As g+a per 90 suggests. There's no detail in that.

Genuinely curious about how creativity is measured because it seems especially tricky to me. Especially when you throw in that a player might not be involved in a move at all, but due to good coaching (which I don't believe has a negligible effect) they receive the ball for the first time in a move close to goal in space with time to pick out a teammate who's also in space with time to put the ball in to the net and they're attributed an assist for that, a top line statistic.

xA seems to be a better metric for it, but if Darwin is expect to revert to the mean for his goalscoring then surely he'd do similar for his assist making also and therefore actually provide fewer than he has this season?

It seems to me as if they are actually quite a cheap stat that can be used to 'cheese' a statistical conversation in a players favour?

I'm sure there are better metrics in use and perhaps Darwin measures up very favourably in them(?) but the A element of g+a per 90 just doesn't appear to add much value to conversations in assessing his contributions unless I'm mistaken.

Brilliant, are you accepting the reverting to the mean argument? In which case lets stop talking about how good he is because basically no one in the world is putting up non penalty xG+A numbers as good as his. Basically we either go from xG+A numbers, in which case he's elite. Or we go from actual goals and assist numbers... in which case he's still very good, probably elite.
« Last Edit: April 18, 2024, 10:35:12 am by Knight »

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Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)
« Reply #14353 on: April 18, 2024, 10:33:38 am »
Going to give someone more versed in this type of thjng a chance to make me look like a fool (educate me).

If a player is out performing their xA is that seen as the player(s) he's passing to generally making 'more' of the pass they're providing, or that the player playing the pass has provided a better chance than the model believes they should from that kind of pass?

Curious about the emerging direction of travel to focus more on Darwins assist stats this season than I've seen previously.

I suspect it's a convenient way to defend him to include them more in conversations at the moment because he's racked up a good amount of assists. So rather than just speaking on his goal output in the PL being a rather paltry 11, the figure thrown out instead is 19 PL g&a which looks a lot more palatable. But that's me being cynical.

Not to throw away the value of an assist, you don't get a goal without an assist. Him making then is good for us. But I was always working under the assumption that assists were kind of a cheap stat? Milner taking the record for assists in a CL season away from the much more creative Rooney and Neymar for example. Those assist numbers didn't tell the full story of his true creativity (love him as I do).

So I'm more intrigued as to what the true 'value' of Darwins assists are? Because g+a per90 doesn't give much detail in so far as what kind of assists those were.

Theres a difference between the value provided by a square ball 30yds out that a player takes up, beats a man and then fires in to the net from 25yds out and a defence splitting pass that sends someone in 1 v 1. Both in terms of how much the assist maker has contributed to the goal and also how repeatable each goal is. Which is baked in the expected side of xA.

So Darwin has a good amount of assists this season, which is great for anyone wanting to throw out his g+a per 90 number. But what's the true value of those assists? He's over performing his xA isn't he? Has he been especially creative?

From memory at least 3 of those assists have been a result of a simple 5yd pass where he has space and we have an overload for Salah to slot. A pass I'd expect any forward to be able to make.

They're the assists you want as a team, the assist the entire team works towards generating, high xG high xA.

But are they evidence of Darwin being especially creative in laying on chances for his teammates which it appears to me is the case being put forward for including them. Or are they evidence of sound coaching, patterns of play, manipulation of attacking scenarios that puts a player in a position to get a fairly simple assist?

Whats out best actual measurement of Darwins creativity in laying in chances for his teammates? It can't simply be assists can it? As g+a per 90 suggests. There's no detail in that.

Genuinely curious about how creativity is measured because it seems especially tricky to me. Especially when you throw in that a player might not be involved in a move at all, but due to good coaching (which I don't believe has a negligible effect) they receive the ball for the first time in a move close to goal in space with time to pick out a teammate who's also in space with time to put the ball in to the net and they're attributed an assist for that, a top line statistic.

xA seems to be a better metric for it, but if Darwin is expect to revert to the mean for his goalscoring then surely he'd do similar for his assist making also and therefore actually provide fewer than he has this season?

It seems to me as if they are actually quite a cheap stat that can be used to 'cheese' a statistical conversation in a players favour?

I'm sure there are better metrics in use and perhaps Darwin measures up very favourably in them(?) but the A element of g+a per 90 just doesn't appear to add much value to conversations in assessing his contributions unless I'm mistaken.


The probability for me is that Nunez is creating the kind of chances his team mates are really good at taking. He has created 10 assists for Salah. Quite a lot of those have been when he as been very unselfish and the keeper and defenders expect him to shoot. Probably the clearest example of that would be the 2nd goal versus Everton in the Derby.

He has drawn the defenders and the keeper and rolled a perfectly weighted pass onto Salah's favoured foot. You have a combination of Salah who is exceptional at taking those kinds of chances and a midget keeper who hasn't got the reach to get near the shot. That is Nunez creating an opportunity that is better than its xG because of who is involved and the work Nunez has done.
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Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)
« Reply #14354 on: April 18, 2024, 10:35:01 am »
Assists get brought up because people arguing against Nunez are very much in an output is all that matters view. So to balance that here is some additional output he has this season. Is expected assists going to be more predictable that actual assists, yeah. You'd not expected the same amount of assists from the same quality of chances every season at his current level, but Nunez's xa is good. Second only to Trent in the league last season per 90 and third to Trent and Salah this (opta numbers). His movement and athletic ability get himself/us in to high scoring chance positions a lot, whether that's then to pass to someone or shoot himself. And this goes back to Benfica as well. If it was just coaching you'd expect the same for Gakpo, Jota and Diaz but there's a drop off comparing them all.
« Last Edit: April 18, 2024, 10:37:56 am by Chris~ »

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Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)
« Reply #14355 on: April 18, 2024, 10:35:29 am »
Jackson's goal versus Everton would be an example of that. Similar to Darwin he spins and hits the shot in one. Doesn't make a clean contact though and he scuffs it into the ground. Or De Bruyne last night just puts his foot through it and beats the keeper for pace.

Nunez when he hits it clean tends to hit the keeper or the woodwork.

There's been a couple of those this season, Palace being the most recent. Where he's caught a shot too perfect when a scuffed shot would have left the keeper with no chance. See Gakpo's goal when it hits his trailing leg and trickles over the line (can't remember who against), sometimes you need luck in those situations

Again, placement isn't "luck". Nunez deliberately opts for power over placement almost every time he shoots at goal. When you prioritise power, you are more likely to hit the middle of the goal, making it more likely the goalkeeper saves it. Think how many times we have seen him blast the ball down the goalkeeper's throat this season when in a decent position. Too often.

His finish against Norwich in the FA Cup is something we need to see much more often from him. Placement, composure, and using a different part of his foot rather than lacing it every time.
« Last Edit: April 18, 2024, 10:37:58 am by LallanaInPyjamas »

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Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)
« Reply #14356 on: April 18, 2024, 10:37:41 am »
Where the shot goes, and whether it's blocked by a defender or saved by a GK, is much more down to luck (variance) than you're admitting though. Is it ENTIRELY on luck? No. There are outliers who are superior finishers. But there aren't many. And you can be the best striker in the world without being an outlier.

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Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)
« Reply #14357 on: April 18, 2024, 10:39:40 am »
Where the shot goes, and whether it's blocked by a defender or saved by a GK, is much more down to luck (variance) than you're admitting though. Is it ENTIRELY on luck? No. There are outliers who are superior finishers. But there aren't many. And you can be the best striker in the world without being an outlier.

If you're constantly hitting the ball at the middle of the goal, that's not variance. It's bad placement. I don't mind when I see him hit the crossbar. Like Suarez in 2011-12, that can be put down much more to variance and bad luck. But you're never going to consistently find the back of the net when hitting the ball within reach of a professional goalkeeper. Just ask Bernardo Silva.

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Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)
« Reply #14358 on: April 18, 2024, 10:40:21 am »
11 league goals isn't paltry :D

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Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)
« Reply #14359 on: April 18, 2024, 10:41:03 am »
11 league goals isn't paltry :D

I'd agree, but from 100+ shots, it's pretty average at best.