Just imagine how BR felt after the Palace game. 12th game in the season, 1.17 ppg ( that`s like less than 50 pts when extrapolated ) Suarez was sold reluctantly, Alexis rejected us and chose to go to a direct rival, no other outstanding forward available on the market till the end onf the window, our most important player injured for 5 months, our new attacking signings failing to make any kind of contribution not even just to break monotony - total boycott, our best resident players were too young to take over responsibility. A complete and utter mess on both sides of the ball.
So what does he do then? He only just thinks of this new shape that almost nobody else in the division uses ( Hull`s and Utd`s are a bit different ) and manages to go from 1.17 ppg to 2.10 ppg over the last 10 games. I mean how many managers would look at our group of players after Palace game and feel confident they can make such an upturn without a single recognized striker. Incredible.
Last 10 games we matched Chelsea`s record, we are 4th in a league in that period, conceded only 9 goals which extrapolates to about 35 goals conceded in a season which is how much City conceded last season when they won it. We lost 52 goals from the team, made a mess in a striker department and with all the other numerous issues BR still managed to make an U-turn and make us play in a Top 4 form. I mean what can you say?
The thing is, we actually played it earlier than then. If you remember we played it in possession against Newcastle - three centre backs, two pivots, two very high wing backs, two
interiores (or whatever else you want to call them) and one forward. It was only out of possession that we played a 4-2-3-1.
The problem in that match was that we just didn't play it very well at all. There was no rotation, no intelligence to open up passing lanes, no ability to construct play from the back or drive into midfield. All that Newcastle did was to leave our back three free, drop their forwards onto our midfielders to force them deep and wide and basically break our midfield. Their midfielders just sat deep and picked off every single pass to Henderson and Coutinho between the lines and so we could never play through them - either Coutinho or Henderson stayed in their positions, in which case there was a complete disconnection through midfield, or they dropped deep, leaving Balotelli even more isolated. All that happened was that possession kept meaninglessly in deep positions until we tried to force it forward then lose it.
Now we're better at playing it, not least because (as should have been obvious at the time) we have players within the back three who are intelligent and comfortable in possession. Can and Sakho are both composed on the ball, both capable of initiating play, both capable of threading balls between the lines, both able to drive into midfield with the ball, even, in Can's case, playing long switches of play. And neither of them make as many errors as Johnson or Lovren. That immediately makes us both more solid and more capable of opening up space on the inside of the opponent's block - it at least means the opponent has a bigger quandary and it forces them to make more precarious trade-offs tactically.
I'm not convinced the change in shape and formation was necessarily that difficult to predict; it was one of the clear options in my opinion. But Rodgers has made it work and he's made it work well so that we now at last have a platform, a basis to build off. What's more, it gives teams a lot of difficulties between the lines. Most teams in England aren't that good at covering the space between the lines generally and they're not particularly used to having to defend two, even three players in that area. It was very noticeable how Mikel and Matic stuck very tight to Coutinho and Gerrard last week, marking them closer than systems of zonal coverage usually entail. Time and time again a gap between them would open up, leaving space for Sterling to drop in and drag Cahill with him. That's exactly how the goal happened - nobody covering the passing lane through the middle, Sterling dropping in, Matic and Mikel not close enough to him, and Chelsea's back line then in a foot race. It's going to be interesting if they persist with this level of man-marking tomorrow or if they change.