Topic: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"

[vblfc]

Likeability is the new credibility. If you like someone then their facts are true. If you don't like them, their facts are fake. Facts are now subjective.

That’s the new truth - subjective facts. Also social media give many sources of different truths which are available instantaneously, so you can get Trumps bullshit first hand (and fast) or a fake fact check as you watch the election debate. This is easy to corrupt, but very difficult to govern or control.

[Red_Mist]

Moments like this can lift an otherwise dull day on the Brexit front....

https://www.lbcnews.co.uk/uk-news/moment-green-mep-shames-brexit-party-rival-who-que/?fbclid=IwAR3YQqYydsCLcGE3rY0sRJVCUgA65zmQGEXsI13ONFnMe8bbU9d29TEyu70

[Andy @ Allerton!]

So. Assuming that the worst happens on Thursday and the Tories get a majority, what ten things do you want to predict (Might be interesting to look back on these in years to come..)

Here's my 10p worth

1. The NHS will be slowly given to the US. Within 5 years, medicines will have more than doubled in price and some people will be paying per night to use a bed
2. There will be 0 new nurses
3. There will be 0 new police
4. Fracking beyond the wildest Tory jizzfests will be occurring all over the UK. Heavy chemicals and the likes will be operating as they used to and major UK rivers will end up as polluted as they were in the 80s
5. People's Human Rights will be eroded/removed
6. People's Working Rights will be eroded/removed
7. It will take more than 5 years for a Trade-Deal and a No-Deal Brexit will happen after about a year
8. Parliament and the House of Lords will be curtailed and the Tories will make changes to ensure they can't be voted out
9. The Social System will be effectively disbanded within 5 years. People will have the same support as people in the US. No money? Get a job or die..
10. Racism and Bigotry and Intolerance will peak and continue to peak

[Circa1892]

I'd agree with 2,3,5,6,7 and 10.

[oldfordie]

So. Assuming that the worst happens on Thursday and the Tories get a majority, what ten things do you want to predict (Might be interesting to look back on these in years to come..)

Here's my 10p worth

1. The NHS will be slowly given to the US. Within 5 years, medicines will have more than doubled in price and some people will be paying per night to use a bed
2. There will be 0 new nurses
3. There will be 0 new police
4. Fracking beyond the wildest Tory jizzfests will be occurring all over the UK. Heavy chemicals and the likes will be operating as they used to and major UK rivers will end up as polluted as they were in the 80s
5. People's Human Rights will be eroded/removed
6. People's Working Rights will be eroded/removed
7. It will take more than 5 years for a Trade-Deal and a No-Deal Brexit will happen after about a year
8. Parliament and the House of Lords will be curtailed and the Tories will make changes to ensure they can't be voted out
9. The Social System will be effectively disbanded within 5 years. People will have the same support as people in the US. No money? Get a job or die..
10. Racism and Bigotry and Intolerance will peak and continue to peak

If we want trade deals then we will have to start charging WTO tariffs on all imports.  so It's either high inflation or no trade deals. no trade deals means we will be inefficient and uncompetitive.
We will be in a no win situation and we chose to put ourselves in this position. it's madness, the chances of Brexit being a success for the average person is zero.

[kavah]

After some initial big ones like Airbus and some of the car companies moving to the EU, I think it will go quite slowly. There might be some kind of Brexit bounce too. The only thing that is certain is over the course of the next 5 years the economy will stall and a Johnson government will act in a transactional, case by case manner. Driven by public opinion and the tabloids. So they might protect elements of the NHS, and maybe there will be some social house building. Banking deregulation to offset the loss of EU privileges in the City.
In short (at best) more of the same from the Tories with a slowing stalling economy

£ down to parity with the Euro and the $
UK from 5 to 7 (Worlds strongest economies)
 The debate about a united Ireland and Scottish independence could dominate politics UK for several years

[Alan_X]

After some initial big ones like Airbus and some of the car companies moving to the EU, I think it will go quite slowly. There might be some kind of Brexit bounce too. The only thing that is certain is over the course of the next 5 years the economy will stall and a Johnson government will act in a transactional, case by case manner. Driven by public opinion and the tabloids. So they might protect elements of the NHS, and maybe there will be some social house building. Banking deregulation to offset the loss of EU privileges in the City.
In short (at best) more of the same from the Tories with a slowing stalling economy

£ down to parity with the Euro and the $
UK from 5 to 7 (Worlds strongest economies)
 The debate about a united Ireland and Scottish independence could dominate politics UK for several years

That’s my view. It will be a slow motion car crash and a steady decline into second-tier status around the world.

[damomad]

Scottish independence within 5 years, United ireland within 10.

[killer-heels]

Scottish independence within 5 years, United ireland within 10.

So not all bad then.

[KillieRed]

After some initial big ones like Airbus and some of the car companies moving to the EU, I think it will go quite slowly. There might be some kind of Brexit bounce too. The only thing that is certain is over the course of the next 5 years the economy will stall and a Johnson government will act in a transactional, case by case manner. Driven by public opinion and the tabloids. So they might protect elements of the NHS, and maybe there will be some social house building. Banking deregulation to offset the loss of EU privileges in the City.
In short (at best) more of the same from the Tories with a slowing stalling economy

£ down to parity with the Euro and the $
UK from 5 to 7 (Worlds strongest economies)
 The debate about a united Ireland and Scottish independence could dominate politics UK for several years

This has a dreadful likelihood to it.

[So… Howard Philips]

After some initial big ones like Airbus and some of the car companies moving to the EU, I think it will go quite slowly. There might be some kind of Brexit bounce too. The only thing that is certain is over the course of the next 5 years the economy will stall and a Johnson government will act in a transactional, case by case manner. Driven by public opinion and the tabloids. So they might protect elements of the NHS, and maybe there will be some social house building. Banking deregulation to offset the loss of EU privileges in the City.
In short (at best) more of the same from the Tories with a slowing stalling economy

£ down to parity with the Euro and the $
UK from 5 to 7 (Worlds strongest economies)
 The debate about a united Ireland and Scottish independence could dominate politics UK for several years

Yes, a slow, inevitable decline for the many. However we will see a lot more reality TV shows featuring body altered bimbos of all and every gender on the newly pay for view Boris Broadcasting Service.

[KillieRed]

Yes, a slow, inevitable decline for the many. However we will see a lot more reality TV shows featuring body altered bimbos of all and every gender on the newly pay for view Boris Broadcasting Service.

"I`d buy that for a dollar".

[oldfordie]

Shit won't happen till transition ends in Dec 2020. then we will really see the effect of leaving the EU.
Can't see car manufacturers moving for at least 5-6 yrs, probably cut down on shifts when the problems of Just in time hit. sales will drop and costs will rise so car companies will go in time.
Still surprised the politicians are not attacking the Tories over 2 contradictory arguments they make.
Tariffs will kick in at the end of 2020. Johnson says he will wave goods through tariff free, theres no chance of signing any trade deals with anyone when we are already giving them tariff free access to the UK market, I think we will have to charge tariffs, this will hit UK companies badly. the effect will be immediate, higher costs to produce while being handicapped by higher tariffs abroad, dummy whammy.
I expect the UK to be in turmoil in 2021.

[Jiminy Cricket]

Do you really think it will take 5-6 years for the car manufactures to leave? I would assume as soon as they determine that there is not some sort quick re-entry into the SM and CU, they will move. Every day they spend in the UK will be only adding to their huge losses.

[oldfordie]

Do you really think it will take 5-6 years for the car manufactures to leave? I would assume as soon as they determine that there is not some sort quick re-entry into the SM and CU, they will move. Every day they spend in the UK will be only adding to their huge losses.

Yeah, I think they will be happy just to tick over till they relocate which obviously cant be done for years,  a lot depends on when the plants need new investment or when new models need to awarded to certain plants. if a plant needs investment or a new model then their days are numbered, am sure the car companies have contingency plans worked out but these are always long term global plans.

[Macphisto80]

So not all bad then.

so you're saying you want rid of us, then? 

[oldfordie]

This could be a brilliant night or a sodding nightmare, few drinks in, hopefully a hung parliament, lots of Tory leave MPs liars loose their seat, watching Tory MPs go into meltdown on tv over tactical voting.

[killer-heels]

so you're saying you want rid of us, then? 

More like I want you lot to get away from us, we will bring you down otherwise.

[filopastry]

Honestly I don't see much reason to be optimistic that we can get the Tories to the sub 313 (optimistically) seats that would be needed to stop them being able to form the next govt with eventual DUP support.

It's not impossible but it's probably longish odds

[oldfordie]

Honestly I don't see much reason to be optimistic that we can get the Tories to the sub 313 (optimistically) seats that would be needed to stop them being able to form the next govt with eventual DUP support.

It's not impossible but it's probably longish odds

Wouldn't say it longish odds, odds for a hung parliament this morning was 4/1,those odds have been getting cut all day, as low as 6/4 now but you can still get 2/1.
Went to vote around 1pm.was told they had more people in by dinner time than they usually have all day.
The Tories may well regret their actions over the last few months, making Johnson PM has started a new way of voting in this country, voters who don't want the Tories in power are now getting organised to vote them out, hope this continues for many years to come.

[rob1966]

Yeah, I think they will be happy just to tick over till they relocate which obviously cant be done for years,  a lot depends on when the plants need new investment or when new models need to awarded to certain plants. if a plant needs investment or a new model then their days are numbered, am sure the car companies have contingency plans worked out but these are always long term global plans.

BMW have spent the past 5 years expanding the Dutch plant that builds the Mini and the X1, Auto Express were reporting in Spring that BMW could relocate engine production from Hams Hall to Austria.

PSA has already announced that the Russelsheim plant will build the next gen Astra, with Ellesmere Port only getting the nod based on Brexit.

Nissan has plants in Spain (Qashqai), France and Russia. They build the same models as Sunderland in Japan.

Based on all that, I give it 12 months for those 3 to have left and JLR another 12 to 18 months.

[oldfordie]

BMW have spent the past 5 years expanding the Dutch plant that builds the Mini and the X1, Auto Express were reporting in Spring that BMW could relocate engine production from Hams Hall to Austria.

PSA has already announced that the Russelsheim plant will build the next gen Astra, with Ellesmere Port only getting the nod based on Brexit.

Nissan has plants in Spain (Qashqai), France and Russia. They build the same models as Sunderland in Japan.

Based on all that, I give it 12 months for those 3 to have left and JLR another 12 to 18 months.

You may well be right Rob based on that info. how much do JLR export to the USA nowadays, was wondering if they are a bit safer than the rest of the UK car industry, having said that it's hard to see how they will produce efficiently when just in time goes.

[Commie Bobbie]

1. Brexit happens on 31st December. It Just Does.
2. Mass Civil Disobedience on New Years Eve - and it doesn't get better.
3. Scotland goes for the Catalan style second referendum in May 2020. And its a landslide.
4. Pound slides to parity with the Euro within 12 months. Frottage makes his millions.
5. 2011-riots all across the country in Summer 2020.
6. Tories use Civil Contigencies...
7. TV License becomes weaponised. Mass non-payment against perceived pro-govt bias.
8. LFC wins League and UCL, with everything that comes from that.
9. Sadiq Khan wins 2nd term as London's mayor. Tories end in fourth place.
10. Mayhem.

[rob1966]

You may well be right Rob based on that info. how much do JLR export to the USA nowadays, was wondering if they are a bit safer than the rest of the UK car industry, having said that it's hard to see how they will produce efficiently when just in time goes.

I found a report from 2018 that said that sales in the USA weren't large enough to justify building cars over there, however, if the workforce in Eastern Europe pull their fingers out they could maybe move everything over there.

[FiSh77]

1. Brexit happens on 31st December. It Just Does.
2. Mass Civil Disobedience on New Years Eve - and it doesn't get better.
3. Scotland goes for the Catalan style second referendum in May 2020. And its a landslide.
4. Pound slides to parity with the Euro within 12 months.Frottage makes his millions.
5. 2011-riots all across the country in Summer 2020.
6. Tories use Civil Contigencies...
7. TV License becomes weaponised. Mass non-payment against perceived pro-govt bias.
8. LFC wins League and UCL, with everything that comes from that.
9. Sadiq Khan wins 2nd term as London's mayor. Tories end in fourth place.
10. Mayhem.

No chance

Apart from 8, and probably number 10 as a consequence of 8

[oldfordie]

I found a report from 2018 that said that sales in the USA weren't large enough to justify building cars over there, however, if the workforce in Eastern Europe pull their fingers out they could maybe move everything over there.

I wasn't thinking of JLR moving to the USA, was wondering if the JLR USA sales would prop up Halewood for 6 yrs +, would be ironic if the JLR plant in Slovakia gets more EU funding to expand . real  threat to Halewood.

[filopastry]

Wouldn't say it longish odds, odds for a hung parliament this morning was 4/1,those odds have been getting cut all day, as low as 6/4 now but you can still get 2/1.
Went to vote around 1pm.was told they had more people in by dinner time than they usually have all day.
The Tories may well regret their actions over the last few months, making Johnson PM has started a new way of voting in this country, voters who don't want the Tories in power are now getting organised to vote them out, hope this continues for many years to come.

A hung Parliament isn't enough though, you need to get to a position where Tory+DUP doesn't get to a majority

Sent from my SM-T860 using Tapatalk

[Mutton Geoff]

Scottish independence within 5 years, United ireland within 10.

Followed by Wales, then Cornwall .

[Commie Bobbie]

Followed by Wales, then Cornwall .

Then London. If not before Wales.

[killer-heels]

Tories with a 20-30 majority.

[Andy @ Allerton!]

So that's the NHS officially given away to US Big Pharma then.

OK. Time to look at opportunities abroad methinks

[redmark]

The piecemeal dismantling of public services. As a headline, the NHS will remain free at the point of delivery - for now - but US corporations will make ever increasing profits out of it. But other sectors of civic society (the little bits we don't consider until we need them) will be broken up and handed off to the private sector.

[McrRed]

The NHS! My beautiful NHS!!! What have they done to you?!!!

[TravisBickle]

We told you, you fucking fools.

[jepovic]

Throwing out foreigners is a much bigger and more imminent threat to the health care system than any trade deal

[Red Beret]

Can I claim asylum in Scotland? I'm being persecuted for my political views...

[AndyMuller]

I’m due to start a new job with the NHS in January. I fear for it massively now these c*nts can do whatever they want with it.

[Mutton Geoff]

Well Johnson now owns this shitshow lets see if he can negotiate anything or will he be looking for the nearest walkin freezer.

[drmick]

Scotland will be having a long protracted battle going forward now. But in terms of impact, it will be Northern Ireland that will feel the immediate consequences whenever the transition period ends.

[stevo7]

Has property prices gone up in Scotland?

Used to visit an aunt in Rothesay as a kid.

Went to Lena Zavaroni chippy.