What impact do we think the pandemic had on two key things; firstly, the amount of success we got from the squad we had in terms of trophies won, and secondly, the investment into the squad when revenue was compromised and the confidence in future revenue was affected?
Personally, I think we're sitting on a significant investment into the squad which has been saved up to allow us to overhaul the core of the first team in a short period of time (we've started with Konate, Diaz and Nunez). I think this is a result of the pandemic. We are bringing through a few young players who will be central to the squad in the next few years and establishing a new forward line. Add two top players in their mid 20s to our midfield and our squad looks brilliant.
In order for this to work, we have to buy the right players at the right price and find players who are hungry to play for the sporting project rather than the money. They will still earn significant sums of money, just not the ridiculous amounts that are paid by clubs subsidised by the national wealth of other countries.
If we had been able to add the right players this summer, we would have. We still have a very strong squad and are well placed financially to remain competitive in the long term. I much rather this sporting project than sitting where Man City are with their non-sporting project. When we win (which we have and still will) it is a far better achievement.
A lot of the negativity in the discussions on here are based on the results we've seen. Let's be honest, we've been pretty crap this season when compared to recent years. I'd argue the issues in our results are a perfect storm of factors and not purely down to not buying lots of new players.
1. We've got lots of injuries
2. A few big players have dropped their levels (this is a whole discussion in itself)
3. We've had a run of bad luck (or poor individual errors/decisions) and bad timing of these
The overall effect of these things is that the psychological state of the squad (and fan base) is damaged. Where you need composure and flow, you've got players either trying to force things or second guessing themselves.
Where the low rate of player turnover is having an effect is that things haven't been freshened up as much as possibly they could have been. There's a lot to be said for changing a group by bringing new faces and personalities into it. There's also the pressure on starting spots that can be applied by creating competition for places and a new hunger you get from players who haven't been there and done it. This is such a difficult balance to get right though. You can get it right like Dalglish or wrong like Souness.
I've digressed from the thread a bit here, so to bring it back, the squad needs investment, but the player turnover needs to be carefully managed and done over a period of time with the right people being brought in (skill sets and personalities). We've got the budget to do so because the club is well run and structured. I think we'll see it happen over the next 18 months so be patient and enjoy the ride because we've still got a lot to enjoy with the current group of players.
That's a great post Prof.
I think the pandemic is a really key point that was overlooked by many in terms of the effect on our situation - many clubs (including us) took out low interest loans to cover costs, so that we could ride it out and protect our cash reserves. At the time, we had no idea whether the pandemic would last 6 months or several years, so I personally didn't find it surprising that summer 2020 and 2021 were relatively risk-averse transfer windows.
The more I read this thread, the more I can also see that whilst there's things we could've (and maybe should've) done differently, there was so much of our situation that was circumstantial/unplanned, with lots of things happening around the same time:
1. The pandemic in March 2020
2. Finishing the season behind closed doors with no fans and no parade
3. The CB injury crisis in early 2021
4. Kirkby and ARE developments in 2021/22
5. Contract extensions and pay rises between 2020 and 2022 for all our key players
6. Players unavailable for extended long periods (Virgil, Matip, Gomez, Ox, Keita, Thiago, Jota)
7. A quadruple push and 63 games last season
8. A shortened pre-season, a Far East tour, and an early start to 2022/3
9. A collective drop-off in physicality and mentality this season
10. A ton more injuries in Aug/Sept/Oct
That's a perfect storm of events and a hell of of a lot of things going on in just 2 years - some of which is within FSG's control, but most of it they couldn't directly influence. Even the much-debated midfield gaps this season don't explain why players like Trent, Fabinho, Virgil and even Mo look completely off their game at times, or why so many of our players only need to step onto the pitch to pick up an injury.
I think FSG (and other owners) have less control on some of the outcomes than many assume. They might own the club, but when (for example) they committed £150m on Ox/Keita's fees and wages, they probably didn't expect them to have so little impact, or to be paying them to be in the treatment room. £150m is not an insignificant sum, and without demeaning our players, I think it's fair to say it's ultimately been money wasted - even though at the time most of us agreed they were good signings. We simply can't afford that kind of misfortune when we're up against City. They don't have a transfer ceiling or any jeopardy when buying players - if they'd bought Ox/Keita instead, they'd simply write them off and go out and spend another £80-£90m on another two players. Even Utd can seemingly buy whoever they like, and their list of expensive flops since 2013 is insane - although perhaps their share price drop, crumbling stadium, lack of CL revenue and £550m of debt might finally catch up with them (although this summer showed the funds are still there for now).
Without sounding like a stuck record, I also don't think people realise how clubs that are run sustainably really do suffer when transfers don't work out and the players can't be moved on. I'm almost certain we'd have sold more players if the right buyer/offer came in, but of course that depends if they want to leave. You certainly can't blame some of them for wanting to be part of Jurgen's world for as long as possible, being around this team and club every day, and enjoying the amazing ride of the last 5 years.