Topic: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"

[Skeeve]

Indeed. I've always resisted getting involved in these 'The BBC are too left/right wing' conversations in the past, but recent evidence is pretty damning and conclusive. I don't know whether it's fear of the government, or obsequiousness, or whether BBC news and current affairs just happens to be run largely by right-wingers, but the bias is clear and undeniable.

I don't think the bbc news is run by right-wingers, it seems far more like they have been cowed by numerous tory governments threats to their funding to remain impartial.

I wonder if they look at their output as a whole, most topical or satirical comedy is going to be anti-tory since they are the party in government, so in the name of 'balance' the news shifts to the right rather than trying to actually be balanced.

[Yosser0_0]

As things stand, no deal, revoke or extend remain the only viable options.  Extend - either for a referendum or an election - is only a stalling tactic, but for what?  May's deal isn't up for renegotiation.  These problems are only going to circle round again. 

At best, it allows a new leader to break out of the corner May has painted herself into - somebody who will drop her red lines, or bite the bullet on revoke.  Both of those options have major repercussions in Parliament, but after an election they may seem more palatable.  Worst case scenario is that it buys time to prepare for a No Deal Brexit - and if the Tories are still in charge after a GE and they put a nutjob in charge that might well be on the cards.

May is going to have a helluva job fighting an election after this fiasco though.  It has to be an attempt to strong arm the party into backing her.  Talk about last throw of the dice.

Really? Could you see the next Tory leader dropping the Red lines or Revoking?

[Lush is the best medicine...]

It will be amazing if she calls an election. Most of her party wont want one. Lets not forget they want her out.

yup, they’ll just vote against it. Which will be hilarious

[filopastry]

How can May call a GE now anyway, she is a lame duck leader who has already said she is off imminently, how can she ask for a mandate based on that.

Or are we meant to have a leadership contest in the middle of an election campaign.

Even be her standards this is a "remarkable" idea.

[Skeeve]

I'd imagine now if it goes to a peoples vote the question would have to be three way - No Deal / Deal / Remain. The deal would have to be either the WA or something along the lines of the Customs union, provided that gets EU buy in. The question is then would parliament allow the "No Deal" option, they don't seem to want it on the table, but they did allow a binary Yes/No on EU membership at the last referendum. It might be difficult to keep that question away from the vote, also it depends upon your point of view as it could divide the Leave vote or galvanise it towards a "No deal" vote, either way its a huge risk as we saw at the last referendum. The Remain vote I imagine would be constant or perhaps increase (I think). A peoples vote isn't to be taken for granted, the question is crucial as there's a lot of fucking dick heads out there with a vote.

I think it should be a straight Remain vs No Deal question in a referendum, any kind of deal will inevitably end up being chipped away at by the right-wing anyway and they will continue to use the EU as a scapegoat for all the hardships caused by brexit when it would actually be all their fault, so take away that excuse by giving them the most complete break they want and given time maybe the British people might see sense.

[lamad]

On one of Germany's two public-service tv channels tonight their main correspondent in Brussels - she and her colleague in London have been on constant standby for weeks now, surely they must be looking towards a long holiday at the end of it - she said they are hearing 'through the grapevine' that the EU might be looking at a longer extension. Unless either the current WA drags itself across the finish line or a no deal Brexit happens on April 12th. Now, in case the WA will not rise from the dead and the British want to avoid no deal, May (or whoever) will ask for an extension and in this case the EU would possibly extend until the end of 2020. During the extension possibly stuff like the CU could be talked about and details could be sorted about the future relationship.

She said that the general feeling is the EU would rather tolerate British MPs in the EU parliament - MPs whose country essentially wants to leave the EU, so you could argue they have no place there - than have Britain crash out with no deal.

[Ray K]

That's true.  Still, it must be gutting for them that now they have the chance to get away from the EU they have finally been forced to face the impracticalities. 

To be honest, before all this stuff started the whole Europe thing would have been of no importance at all to the DUP. It's not like the rights and wrongs of the Single Market got any mileage in their conferences and manifestos.

I think the DUP supported Brexit cos (a) their fellow travelers at the reactionary end of the Tory party supported it and (b) the Shinners and Dublin opposed it.
Make no mistake, if SF had supported Brexit, the DUP would have been Remainers.

Now I think they might be desperate for all this nonsense to end and get back to their normal version of bigotry and intransigence and most people on The Mainland ignoring them. Cos they now know that May's likely successors like Johnson and Rees-Mogg would sell them out in a nanosecond if it meant getting into no. 10.

[Alan_X]

That diagram doesn't have revoke on it. :-/

"Cancel Brexit" is between "No deal Brexit" on 12th April and "Further extension".

[Lush is the best medicine...]

https://twitter.com/georginafstubbs/status/1111715367615901701?s=21

Lovely lot these

[Trada]

I would love an election, but I can't see how she can threaten one, because she just can't call for one now MPs have to vote for it.

Or am I missing something.

[Alan_X]

I would love an election, but I can't see how she can threaten one, because she just can't call for one now MPs have to vote for it.

Or am I missing something.

What would an election achieve?

*edit... just realised who this is.

[thejbs]

Faisal Islam
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@faisalislam
 12m12 minutes ago
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So @SamCoatesTimes says that dozens of MPs next week have a tutorial scheduled on what the customs union is from some trade experts...



Absolutely staggering.

Not surprised given that the Tory SofS for NI didn't know that nationalists and unionists didn't vote for each others parties.

[Yosser0_0]

On one of Germany's two public-service tv channels tonight their main correspondent in Brussels - she and her colleague in London have been on constant standby for weeks now, surely they must be looking towards a long holiday at the end of it - she said they are hearing 'through the grapevine' that the EU might be looking at a longer extension. Unless either the current WA drags itself across the finish line or a no deal Brexit happens on April 12th. Now, in case the WA will not rise from the dead and the British want to avoid no deal, May (or whoever) will ask for an extension and in this case the EU would possibly extend until the end of 2020. During the extension possibly stuff like the CU could be talked about and details could be sorted about the future relationship.

She said that the general feeling is the EU would rather tolerate British MPs in the EU parliament - MPs whose country essentially wants to leave the EU, so you could argue they have no place there - than have Britain crash out with no deal.

To be honest that's no big deal and people spoffing BS is what debating, politics and democracy is all about. Don't you think the Spanish and Italians can moan equally as well, if not more? In a way that is the remarkable thing about the EU, in that they have managed to somehow unite countries with such different values and cultures. It will be a shame to leave the EU. 

[Zeb]

On one of Germany's two public-service tv channels tonight their main correspondent in Brussels - she and her colleague in London have been on constant standby for weeks now, surely they must be looking towards a long holiday at the end of it - she said they are hearing 'through the grapevine' that the EU might be looking at a longer extension. Unless either the current WA drags itself across the finish line or a no deal Brexit happens on April 12th. Now, in case the WA will not rise from the dead and the British want to avoid no deal, May (or whoever) will ask for an extension and in this case the EU would possibly extend until the end of 2020. During the extension possibly stuff like the CU could be talked about and details could be sorted about the future relationship.

She said that the general feeling is the EU would rather tolerate British MPs in the EU parliament - MPs whose country essentially wants to leave the EU, so you could argue they have no place there - than have Britain crash out with no deal.

Thanks for that. Matches to a large degree what EU watchers here are saying. They caveat it with fears of May turning up to the next council and trying to push the decision for what to do next onto the EU, as she's tried to do in the past. Good will still there, if stretched, and a willingness to help but we have to help ourselves by at least making sure we're set to hold European elections.

[Machae]

So what are the chances of a 2nd referendum now then?

Surely that's the only sane option besides revoking article 50

[royhendo]

Big problem.  They only know 2 songs.  Nearer my God to thee, and The Sash my father wore.

The LOL interrupted Masterchef. I’m not popular.

[TepidT2O]

I would love an election, but I can't see how she can threaten one, because she just can't call for one now MPs have to vote for it.

Or am I missing something.

Someone has been naughty

[Yosser0_0]

I think it should be a straight Remain vs No Deal question in a referendum, any kind of deal will inevitably end up being chipped away at by the right-wing anyway and they will continue to use the EU as a scapegoat for all the hardships caused by brexit when it would actually be all their fault, so take away that excuse by giving them the most complete break they want and given time maybe the British people might see sense.

But No Deal is off the table as far as parliament is concerned?

[TepidT2O]

But No Deal is off the table as far as parliament is concerned?

Errr. No..

We leave the EU by default on April the 12th. 

Unless something happens we get no deal (we’re back to thepis scenario agin I’m afraid).

Although there is an overwhelming majority against no deal.

[Red Beret]

Really? Could you see the next Tory leader dropping the Red lines or Revoking?

As I said, there are serious repercussions for both options, but a new Parliament might have a different sense of the situation than the current one. 

The cold hard fact is that unless the next leader is for full on hard brexit then the only way out of the current impasse is compromise.  If nothing else, May has proven that her red lines are ineffectual in securing a deal.

At the end of the day though, Brexit is one part ideological, two parts Tory power play.  There's honestly no way of knowing how it will pan out because a Tory PM will come at this from a party angle, and not at what is good for the nation.  As discussed, without a seismic shift in Parliament, an extension just kicks this whole mess down the road and we'll end up right back here in 9-12 months.

[Red Beret]

To be honest, before all this stuff started the whole Europe thing would have been of no importance at all to the DUP. It's not like the rights and wrongs of the Single Market got any mileage in their conferences and manifestos.

I think the DUP supported Brexit cos (a) their fellow travelers at the reactionary end of the Tory party supported it and (b) the Shinners and Dublin opposed it.
Make no mistake, if SF had supported Brexit, the DUP would have been Remainers.

Now I think they might be desperate for all this nonsense to end and get back to their normal version of bigotry and intransigence and most people on The Mainland ignoring them. Cos they now know that May's likely successors like Johnson and Rees-Mogg would sell them out in a nanosecond if it meant getting into no. 10.

Agreed!

[gjr1]

I think the EU will grant a 12 month extension so The UK can ‘sort itself out’.

It’s the logical choice has it’ll give time for a GE and/or another referendum without causing the EU any issues.

May ran the clock down in the hope of forcing her deal through or have no deal.

No one wants no deal... the country, the parliament and the EU don’t want it

She still needs 29/30 more MPs to change their minds to get the deal over the line if the speaker will even allow another vote. The numbers are not there. With the DUP and the not for changing Tories she’ll never get it passed.

[Yosser0_0]

Errr. No..

We leave the EU by default on April the 12th. 

Unless something happens we get no deal (we’re back to thepis scenario agin I’m afraid).

Although there is an overwhelming majority against no deal.

No, please read back, I'm talking about a possible referendum question - which would obviously be in the future, post extension after a plan to the EU which would includes a peoples vote.

[Red Beret]

Someone has been naughty

I know it's really unlikely but I would laugh my tits off if May called for an election vote and she lost it.  She would be faced with the prospect of either having to carry on or resigning.  From a Tory perspective it might actually be the best/only way to get rid of her.

I think the EU will grant a 12 month extension so The UK can ‘sort itself out’.

It’s the logical choice has it’ll give time for a GE and/or another referendum without causing the EU any issues.

May ran the clock down in the hope of forcing her deal through or have no deal.

No one wants no deal... the country, the parliament and the EU don’t want it

She still needs 29/30 more MPs to change their minds to get the deal over the line if the speaker will even allow another vote. The numbers are not there. With the DUP and the not for changing Tories she’ll never get it passed.

Y'see, THERE'S your problem.  None of this has anything to do with logic.  If logic were at play we'd have already asked for a long extension and be sorting out a referendum.  Not worrying ourselves shitless about a No Deal that nobody wants but might still happen because nobody has the guts to request an extension and admit the whole mess is beyond fixing inside the next two weeks.

[TepidT2O]

No, please read back, I'm talking about a possible referendum question - which would obviously be in the future, post extension after a plan to the EU which would includes a peoples vote.

Oh soz.

[Alan_X]

I know it's really unlikely but I would laugh my tits off if May called for an election vote and she lost it.  She would be faced with the prospect of either having to carry on or resigning.  From a Tory perspective it might actually be the best/only way to get rid of her.

Y'see, THERE'S your problem.  None of this has anything to do with logic.  If logic were at play we'd have already asked for a long extension and be sorting out a referendum.  Not worrying ourselves shitless about a No Deal that nobody wants but might still happen because nobody has the guts to request an extension and admit the whole mess is beyond fixing inside the next two weeks.

If logic had anything to do with it we'd have fucked the whole thing off years ago.

[Yosser0_0]

As I said, there are serious repercussions for both options, but a new Parliament might have a different sense of the situation than the current one. 

The cold hard fact is that unless the next leader is for full on hard brexit then the only way out of the current impasse is compromise.  If nothing else, May has proven that her red lines are ineffectual in securing a deal.

At the end of the day though, Brexit is one part ideological, two parts Tory power play.  There's honestly no way of knowing how it will pan out because a Tory PM will come at this from a party angle, and not at what is good for the nation.  As discussed, without a seismic shift in Parliament, an extension just kicks this whole mess down the road and we'll end up right back here in 9-12 months.

Aye depressingly that seems the case. The A50 submission and the red lines were committed to far too early but were based on the manifesto, so had to be delivered. But in modern day politics does the manifesto matter anymore in this instant society, why not go with the latest whim to get votes?

[The Gulleysucker]

I would love an election, but I can't see how she can threaten one, because she just can't call for one now MPs have to vote for it.

Or am I missing something.

Perhaps the blinder that your hero is playng...

[ShakaHislop]

As of 21:00hrs five arrests have been made at the demonstrations in central #London today: x2 for assault, x1 drunk & disorderly, x1 for assaulting a police officer & x1 male arrested after being identified as wanted for an offence in Herts. All are in custody.

https://twitter.com/metpoliceuk/status/1111734072408199168

[Red Beret]

Aye depressingly that seems the case. The A50 submission and the red lines were committed to far too early but were based on the manifesto, so had to be delivered. But in modern day politics does the manifesto matter anymore in this instant society, why not go with the latest whim to get votes?

Judging by the reports today of how May was promising the Earth and a never ending flow of milk and honey for any Labour MPs who might consider voting for her, I'm pretty sure that's where we seem to be at.

Most manifestos only really seem to cover a Parliament's first term, with some longer term objectives vaguely pencilled in.  But it should be painfully obvious by now that Brexit is simply not deliverable based on the criteria May had put into the manifesto. 

If a soft Brexit remains an option than something has got to give - we're at this impasse because May refuses to give.  She wants Brexit, on her terms; she can't get it on her terms, but refuses to budge on her terms.  That's it, in a nutshell.

If logic had anything to do with it we'd have fucked the whole thing off years ago.

Is the correct answer.

[killer-heels]

https://twitter.com/metpoliceuk/status/1111734072408199168

A quiet friday night, relatively.

[Alan_X]

https://twitter.com/metpoliceuk/status/1111734072408199168

As someone said on the Remainers podcast - The possibility of Brexit not happening isn't going to turn people to violence, these neanderthals were violent anyway.

It's the politics of Brexit that attracts knuckle-dragging morons. 

[ShakaHislop]

Happy No Brexit everyone!

[Skeeve]

No, please read back, I'm talking about a possible referendum question - which would obviously be in the future, post extension after a plan to the EU which would includes a peoples vote.

I know the MPs supposedly don't want that, but since all flavours of brexit are fucking shite why not put remain up against the most shite which has the most chance of making potential wishywashy leave voters see sense and come back from the brink of disaster, rather than giving them the option of something that is worse than what we currently have (should be called EU+ ffs) where they can say at least it is a change.

[oldfordie]

 

Happy No Brexit everyone!

Happy no Brexit. lets make March 29th Happy no Brexit day from now on.

[killer-heels]

Rory Stewart was not clear at all as to what May will do if a customs union is agreed on Monday. Seems to be hinting that staring at the barrel of that will focus minds on one more crack at her MV.

[Red Beret]

Rory Stewart was not clear at all as to what May will do if a customs union is agreed on Monday. Seems to be hinting that staring at the barrel of that will focus minds on one more crack at her MV.

So it's rinse repeat of May's previous strategy?  Stall and hope the threat of no brexit intimidates MPs into supporting her deal? 

Granted, she's whittled the opposition down somewhat, but even if the ERG gets totally behind her, without the DUP she's reliant on Labour rebels to try and force this through.  And there's still the small matter of Bercow allowing yet another fucking vote on her deal.

[Yosser0_0]

I know the MPs supposedly don't want that, but since all flavours of brexit are fucking shite why not put remain up against the most shite which has the most chance of making potential wishywashy leave voters see sense and come back from the brink of disaster, rather than giving them the option of something that is worse than what we currently have (should be called EU+ ffs) where they can say at least it is a change.

Goes back to my point earlier, can you trust the electorate now? Its a huge risk, I never thought the Tory's would loose their majority in the last GE, it was completely unpredictable.

[ShakaHislop]

  Happy no Brexit. lets make March 29th Happy no Brexit day from now on.

https://twitter.com/hmtreasury/status/1056949656037613569

It's the thought that counts.

[goalrushatgoodison]

To be honest, before all this stuff started the whole Europe thing would have been of no importance at all to the DUP. It's not like the rights and wrongs of the Single Market got any mileage in their conferences and manifestos.

I think the DUP supported Brexit cos (a) their fellow travelers at the reactionary end of the Tory party supported it and (b) the Shinners and Dublin opposed it.
Make no mistake, if SF had supported Brexit, the DUP would have been Remainers.

Now I think they might be desperate for all this nonsense to end and get back to their normal version of bigotry and intransigence and most people on The Mainland ignoring them. Cos they now know that May's likely successors like Johnson and Rees-Mogg would sell them out in a nanosecond if it meant getting into no. 10.

If you are saying that they would not be naturally idealogical supporters of Brexit, I'd agree. However, I'm not sure that their support for Brexit was just down to the attitudes of thier respective friends and foes.My instinct is that a big factor was that in the event, albeit unlikely at the time, of a Brexit outcome to the referendum, they really didn't want to take the chance of been in a position where they and the overwhelming majority oh NI ( which it would have been if the DUP had opposed it) were against it.

Refusal to accept special treatment for Ni, which at the very least would optically challenge the concept of the Union, would be difficult to brazen out in the event that they had led opposition to Brexit in the first place.