Topic: General Political discussion with kesey-style vibes & tantric breathing stuff...

[TepidT2O]

There may be two Tories who quit tomorrow.

Is this an epochal period in British politics?

The Labour Party taken over by Marxists, the Tory party taken over by UKIP/ERG.


A sense that common sense has been utterly thrown out of the window.

[SlowRap]

But they said they had disparate views.  Trada claimed they wanted a second vote.

They didn’t. Umnah might, but not necessarily there others.

almost like...the most prominent one does not get to dictate their party policy in the end?

[TepidT2O]

almost like...the most prominent one does not get to dictate their party policy in the end?

Who knows.  Thye don’t really have a policy as they are a group not a party. But I was simply correcting a terminilogical inexactitude on Tradas part.

[cloggypop]

Above a pub called 'The Unicorn'.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/independent-groups-office-revealed-above-14016696

Ha!

[Zeb]

There may be two Tories who quit tomorrow.

Is this an epochal period in British politics?

The Labour Party taken over by Marxists, the Tory party taken over by UKIP/ERG.


A sense that common sense has been utterly thrown out of the window.

Who are the Tories? Seeing talk of more Tories being pushed into deselection battles so I don't think it'll be long before some of them weigh things up either. Seems like everyone is counting down til end of this month to then begin properly planning the way forward.

[jillcwhomever]

There may be two Tories who quit tomorrow.

Is this an epochal period in British politics?

The Labour Party taken over by Marxists, the Tory party taken over by UKIP/ERG.


A sense that common sense has been utterly thrown out of the window.

Do we know who will be the ones to quit. I think its inevitable that both big parties will split, the fallout from Brexit will be huge for both of them. Who know what our political landscape will be like then?

[SlowRap]

Who knows.  Thye don’t really have a policy as they are a group not a party. But I was simply correcting a terminilogical inexactitude on Tradas part.

so they just formed this rebel 7 without any policy

[jillcwhomever]

Who are the Tories? Seeing talk of more Tories being pushed into deselection battles so I don't think it'll be long before some of them weigh things up either. Seems like everyone is counting down til end of this month to then begin properly planning the way forward.

After we've crashed out of Europe? Events will esculate then for all the parties.

[jillcwhomever]

so they just formed this rebel 7 without any policy

They have decided they cannot live under the leadership of Corbyn and are serving as independents. It is quite clear if you read their comments that it has been a personal decision for them, based on their own opinions. Once we've crashed out of the EU events will run themselves anyway.

[Zeb]

After we've crashed out of Europe? Events will esculate then for all the parties.

Yeah. And before then should Labour's policy not shift to at least remaining in the single market post-Brexit. That's the obvious point of unity among those currently at odds with their parties, and one they can happily find agreement with Lib Dems, Nats, and Greens over.

[WhereAngelsPlay]

so they just formed this rebel 7 without any policy

They've left the party because Corbyn only listens to his acolytes & ball washers ,why do they need policy atm when there isn't an election ?

[Alan_X]

so they just formed this rebel 7 without any policy

It’s really not that difficult to understand. Each one decided they can’t stay in the Labour Party so have decided to sit as a loose group of independents. They haven’t formed anything.

If someone farts in a lift and three people decide to get out of the lift it doesn’t mean they share a common goal apart from getting away from the smell.  (That’s an analogy).

[Antoine Lavoisier]

It’s really not that difficult to understand. Each one decided they can’t stay in the Labour Party so have decided to sit as a loose group of independents. They haven’t formed anything.

If someone farts in a lift and three people decide to get out of the lift it doesn’t mean they share a common goal apart from getting away from the smell.  (That’s an analogy).

And a bloody good one!

[ShakaHislop]

There may be two Tories who quit tomorrow.

Is this an epochal period in British politics?

The Labour Party taken over by Marxists, the Tory party taken over by UKIP/ERG.


A sense that common sense has been utterly thrown out of the window.

Do we know who will be the ones to quit. I think its inevitable that both big parties will split, the fallout from Brexit will be huge for both of them. Who know what our political landscape will be like then?

Two Tories tonight say they are thinking seriously about whether to quit - there could be another move before end of the week - jitters all over the place

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1097626773016186880

I'd guess at Soubry and Grieve, although he might wait and see what happens in the Commons next week. Heidi Allen and Sarah Woolaston are two other possibilities I reckon.

[Zeb]

Survation from today/yesterday (18th).

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 40% (+2)
LAB: 36% (-3)
LDEM: 10% (+1)
UKIP: 5% (+1)
GRN: 2% (-)

---

Without knowing anything but one policy of a new party:

CON: 39%
LAB: 34%
"A new centrist party opposed to Brexit": 8%
LDEM: 6%
UKIP: 5%
GRN: 2%


On which "best represents the people of Britain":

The Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn: 23%
The new independent group of MPs: 40%
(Lab 2017 voters split 45-31 in favour of Corbyn.)


On whether the seven Labour MPs were right to set up a new 'Independent Group':

They were right: 56%
They were not right: 20%

(via Britain Elects' reading of Survation)

[Lush is the best medicine...]

45% of labour voters last time think corbyn is the best option for Britain, pretty damning

[Trada]

[quote author=Zeb link=topic=341008.msg16482268#msg16482268

Without knowing anything but one policy of a new party:

CON: 39%
LAB: 34%
"A new centrist party opposed to Brexit": 8%
LDEM: 6%
UKIP: 5%
GRN: 2%


[/quote]

Do they think they will have someone standing in every seat? even then they won't make much of an impact.

They are pushing themselves as a pro brexit party but they don't want a snap election and by the next one Brexit will be done and  people would have gotten use to whatever we end up with.

[Trada]

On whether the seven Labour MPs were right to set up a new 'Independent Group':

They were right: 56%
They were not right: 20%

(via Britain Elects' reading of Survation)

That means nothing if I was asked that question I would have said yes.

But no way I would vote for them or support them.

Just glad they have left the Labour party.

[WhereAngelsPlay]

That means nothing if I was asked that question I would have said yes.

But no way I would vote for them or support them.

Just glad they have left the Labour party.

I'll be glad when Corbyn fucks off and you and your buddies go back to voting Lib Dem or whoever the fuck you voted for before Comrade gobshite took over.

[Zeb]

45% of labour voters last time think corbyn is the best option for Britain, pretty damning

It's what Curtice has been saying for a while that where you'd expect partisan loyalty to have numbers up in the 80s% that's just not present there for either of the main parties at the moment. Yet both being that bad seems to have removed the political pressure to actually change. Also worth highlighting that it shouldn't be a surprise that a lot of Labour 2017 voters aren't keen on Corbyn because a lot of Labour 2017's vote (ie the surge in polling through the election) seems to have been people unconvinced by Corbyn but moving back towards Labour as election day neared. Could happen again next election, of course. Risky one to deliberately do when leadership seem to have convinced themselves they don't need to do anything to convince them to stick around.

[Zeb]

Do they think they will have someone standing in every seat? even then they won't make much of an impact.

They are pushing themselves as a pro brexit party but they don't want a snap election and by the next one Brexit will be done and  people would have gotten use to whatever we end up with.

Trada, if you take nothing else in from the forum tonight or anything people have tried to say to you over several years then take this in. Brexit won't be over come end of March. That's just the end of the 'easy' bit. What comes next is negotiating what we want our relationship with the EU to be in the future (that's optimistic scenario). That's going to take years. If we're not in the Single Market at the end of that then people won't get used to it. They'll be livid and blaming the politicians who didn't insist we did remain in it.

[WhereAngelsPlay]

It's what Curtice has been saying for a while that where you'd expect partisan loyalty to have numbers up in the 80s% that's just not present there for either of the main parties at the moment. Yet both being that bad seems to have removed the political pressure to actually change. Also worth highlighting that it shouldn't be a surprise that a lot of Labour 2017 voters aren't keen on Corbyn because a lot of Labour 2017's vote (ie the surge in polling through the election) seems to have been people unconvinced by Corbyn but moving back towards Labour as election day neared. Could happen again next election, of course. Risky one to deliberately do when leadership seem to have convinced themselves they don't need to do anything to convince them to stick around.

That's an understatement mate,if anything they're actively trying to push people out.

[Trada]

[quote author=Zeb link=topic=341008.msg16482268#msg16482268

Without knowing anything but one policy of a new party:

CON: 39%
LAB: 34%
"A new centrist party opposed to Brexit": 8%
LDEM: 6%
UKIP: 5%
GRN: 2%




Do they think they will have someone standing in every seat? even then they won't make much of an impact.

They are pushing themselves as a pro brexit party but they don't want a snap election and by the next one Brexit will be done and  people would have gotten use to whatever we end up with.

Opps meant pro stay group.

[Zeb]

That's an understatement mate,if anything they're actively trying to push people out.

The expectation is that you'll still vote Labour though, isn't it? "Do you hate poor people WhereAngelsPlay?" and such things. That held true in 2017. Disaffected former Labour voters ultimately turned out for Labour.

[Zeb]

Opps meant pro stay group.

Understood what you meant.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

The expectation is that you'll still vote Labour though, isn't it? "Do you hate poor people WhereAngelsPlay?" and such things. That held true in 2017. Disaffected former Labour voters ultimately turned out for Labour.

a significant part was they thought labour was more remain/soft Brexit and likely a decent number who wanted to vote Lib Dem ‘lent’ their vote to labour (+12% swing in remain areas from memory), so cant see all that many of them sticking with them

[oldfordie]

Trada, if you take nothing else in from the forum tonight or anything people have tried to say to you over several years then take this in. Brexit won't be over come end of March. That's just the end of the 'easy' bit. What comes next is negotiating what we want our relationship with the EU to be in the future (that's optimistic scenario). That's going to take years. If we're not in the Single Market at the end of that then people won't get used to it. They'll be livid and blaming the politicians who didn't insist we did remain in it.

I don't think our politicians have got it yet, they seem to think the day we leave they can all breath a sigh of relief and say phew thanks god thats over, lets just get back to everyday politics.
It's hard to believe they cant see the backlash that's coming.

[WhereAngelsPlay]

The expectation is that you'll still vote Labour though, isn't it? "Do you hate poor people WhereAngelsPlay?" and such things. That held true in 2017. Disaffected former Labour voters ultimately turned out for Labour.

They're in for a shock next time round,they have taken the traditional Labour voters for granted.

[Zeb]

a significant part was they thought labour was more remain/soft Brexit and likely a decent number who wanted to vote Lib Dem ‘lent’ their vote to labour (+12% swing in remain areas from memory), so cant see all that many of them sticking with them

Have mentioned her work before not so long back, but Paula Surridge's stuff is interesting in terms of 'values' - especially as she's been pointing out the faultlines for so long. She was on the same page as you earlier this evening. Twitter

According to the tables for the @Survation poll, 12% of those educated to degree level or higher would vote for the ‘new centrist party opposed to Brexit’. Putting Labour behind Cons in this group whereas they have a lead if there is no new party

Those well educated voters are the ones to watch, they have a number of options, are paying attention and many have switched from LibDems to Labour since 2010.

-----

Just something from my inbox from the Jewish Labour Movement.

Our Statement

Today marks a deeply depressing evolution in the abject failure of the leadership of the Labour Party to properly and comprehensively address the ongoing crisis of antisemitism within our Party.

Almost a year ago, thousands swelled Parliament Square to call Dayenu – ‘Enough is Enough’. In an unprecedented protest, the Jewish community came together to stand against antisemitism, and in solidarity with Jewish Labour members, activists and parliamentarians who deal with its impact daily.

As we set out earlier this month, far too little has been achieved for the Party to be able to claim in all honesty that it upholds the ‘zero tolerance’ environment promised to us and the Jewish community those many months ago. Instead, we have seen the entrenching of a culture of antisemitism, obfuscation and denial.

For our Parliamentary Chair, Luciana Berger MP, enough truly was enough.

Her decision is a culmination of the same dilemma that each of us has been forced to contended with for a very long time, exacerbated by the reasons she set out in her resignation letter earlier today.

Tonight, as members discuss in private and share on social media their own responses to this very same dilemma, setting out their reasons for staying, or their reasons to leave, it is only right that we come together as a Movement to decide collectively where we go from here.

Our Members

To be a member of the Jewish Labour Movement, like all other socialist society affiliates, you must be eligible to be a member of the Labour Party.

At key points of crisis throughout the last few years, JLM’s membership has rapidly grown. This is partly due to Labour Party members joining our ranks to take up the fight against antisemitism in their local parties, joining our networks of activists to call out and stand against the culture of antisemitism, denial and obfuscation.

But we also count amongst our members those who have resigned from the Labour Party, who join JLM in defiance of the failure of the Labour Party to retain their direct support, but who nevertheless are committed to expressing their Jewish values and their democratic socialism through collective action. That so many have taken this action is a source of shame for the Labour Party, but a source of pride for JLM that they should want to stay, stand and fight with us.

Each of you will be aware of members who have resigned both today and in the recent past. They will continue to have a home within the Jewish Labour Movement. We will not allow those who have been bullied, harassed and intimidated out of their Party to be excluded from our wider movement. 

Extraordinary General Meetings to be held start of March for the Jewish Labour Movement to decide what they want to do next. They'll have been affiliated with the Labour party for a century come 2020.

[Zeb]

I don't think our politicians have got it yet, they seem to think the day we leave they can all breath a sigh of relief and say phew thanks god thats over, lets just get back to everyday politics.
It's hard to believe they cant see the backlash that's coming.

Weird part of the two frontbenches wanting to take all of the credit but none of the blame. One of the paradoxes which is showing up in polling is that 'Leave' voters distrust politicians, and have some idea about what worst case scenarios will entail, but expect things to turn out alright because the state will make sure it does. Will they be pissier for any sort of disruption coming as a surprise than 'Remain' voters for having known and warned about it? Is there a Brexit outcome which doesn't propel some shift in politics - whether a 'rejoin' movement or (and?) a 'leave meant leave' one? Triangulating around that for any party seems difficult and impossible in the current parliament if decisions of any sort are to be made.

[Trada]

I wonder when the 2nd wave of the chickencoup will go they like doing things that way like its a spur of the moment thing but pre planned I'm sure Blairites like Smeeth, Mann, Austin, Eagle, flint, hodge and Phillips maybe thinking about it all the ones in risk of being reselected a last hooray before they get jobs for private companies that have been giving them money.

It will be brilliant saves the CLPs so much work just have to choose the next candidate.

[It's Jimmy Corkhill]

I wonder when the 2nd wave of the chickencoup will go they like doing things that way like its a spur of the moment thing but pre planned I'm sure Blairites like Smeeth, Mann, Austin, Eagle, flint, hodge and Phillips maybe thinking about it all the ones in risk of being reselected a last hooray before they get jobs for private companies that have been giving them money.

It will be brilliant saves the CLPs so much work just have to choose the next candidate.

How is splitting the 'Labour' vote brilliant? We'll either end up with a Tory rule for a decade or a large centrist party with splinters in its arse that keeps the status quo and gives the worse-off crumbs from the table.

I don't believe you appreciate how damaging this is. I don't agree with any of those that left, or their personal politics, but they were Labour MP's who are now no longer. Any defection from our side is a disaster.

[Alan_X]

I wonder when the 2nd wave of the chickencoup will go they like doing things that way like its a spur of the moment thing but pre planned I'm sure Blairites like Smeeth, Mann, Austin, Eagle, flint, hodge and Phillips maybe thinking about it all the ones in risk of being reselected a last hooray before they get jobs for private companies that have been giving them money.

It will be brilliant saves the CLPs so much work just have to choose the next candidate.

You really are loving this aren’t you?  Nothing like a good purge for political purity is there?

Just get rid of the Blairites, the Jews, the centrists, the social democrats, the Remainers (they’re only remainers to undermine Jeremy aren’t they?) and the party will sweep to power. Get all the great Corbynistas into Parliament and onto the Labour front bench  Grace Blakely for Industry Secretary, Aaron Bastani can be in charge of the five year plan and Owen Jones can be Minister for Propaganda and Re-education of the Proletariat.

It’s going to fucking amazing - Brexits not real and will be over in six weeks as you say.

[Rhi]

Starting to think Trada has been a Russian bot all along.

[redmark]

Derek Hatton rejoins the party. Straight into Berger's seat?

[jillcwhomever]

Derek Hatton rejoins the party. Straight into Berger's seat?

I think that's the final straw for me.

[gazzalfc]

Derek Hatton rejoins the party. Straight into Berger's seat?

Not even Wavertree CLP will make it that obvious. It's sickening that he has got his membership back and the timing cannot be seen as just a coincidence

Really interested to see what my MP Louise Ellman does. She released a very strongly worded statement last night in support of Berger and an attack on anti-Semitism within the party (including members from her own constituency). Even though she has vowed to continue to tackle and call out the 'virus of antisemitism', there were no words of support to those higher up the leadership.

[Craig S]

The expectation is that you'll still vote Labour though, isn't it? "Do you hate poor people WhereAngelsPlay?" and such things. That held true in 2017. Disaffected former Labour voters ultimately turned out for Labour.

It was the pragmatic approach. However, it is pretty difficult to remain pragmatic when the party you voted for utterly lacks pragmatism.

[Alan_X]

The expectation is that you'll still vote Labour though, isn't it? "Do you hate poor people WhereAngelsPlay?" and such things. That held true in 2017. Disaffected former Labour voters ultimately turned out for Labour.

It's not going to be easy come the next election but I am not voting for that gang of c*nts as it will only encourage them and give them legitimacy. 

[The Gulleysucker]

Derek Hatton rejoins the party. Straight into Berger's seat?

I've seen Galloway mentioned a few days ago. He's short of money.

On the subject of Degsie, it's always worth reminding everyone of Bleasdale's response when asked if the Michael Murray character in GBH was based on him...