Author Topic: Team Analysis: Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool Tactics (*)  (Read 926822 times)

Offline PhaseOfPlay

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Re: Team Analysis: Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool Tactics (*)
« Reply #4360 on: January 19, 2018, 08:04:34 pm »
Excellent points as always.

As I understand it, while there are other models that take in consideration more factors, xG uses a combination of shot location, proximity of defenders, and the situation (direct free kicks, penalties, open play, etc.), and assumes the shot-taker is of "average" ability.  Unless a transform is applied (like a Poisson distribution that accounts for attacking and defending strength),  a 1-v-1 with Christian Benteke is treated the same as one with Harry Kane.  I do think system can have a significant impact on shots with the exact same EGV (used in xG).  For instance, on a team that defends very deep and protects against a far post run, a keeper can cheat towards the near post and worry less about the cross.  But, this is only one exemplary scenario.  We could surely develop others to both support and refute the system effect. 

And that brings us back to your small sample size point.  You are correct that small sample sizes do not negate outcome.  They merely reduce the confidence that whatever "true" value you're actually seeking lies within the sample.  With goalkeepers, we can't (yet) have much confidence in the utility of metrics like xG in isolation as evaluative measures of keeper quality, because the sample is so tiny.  Bringing in other metrics (saves per goal, etc.) adds more data points and raises confidence that the value we're trying to determine (goalkeeper quality) is "true".

I think there's a very reasonable argument that trying to develop a metric to evaluate goalkeepers is a fool's errand
, because that sample size will never be large enough without significant variations in noise-causing factors), and any increased precision will only shrink that size further.

I agree with the bolded. The thing is, without a deep knowledge of what a keeper's position entails, and without experience to observe from, most of us can't really speak confidently and objectively about keeper performance - so the next best thing is to look at metrics, as simple as they are, because they will at least give us a tool to be able to rank players side by side, even if they are statistically and methodologically flawed. For me, the eye test tells me that Nick Pope is a better keeper than Mignolet, and probably, Karius. By how much, though, I couldn't say. And clearly and obviously, his performance level (rather than his actual metrics) might be enhanced by how Burnley play, and thus might be negatively impacted in another set up. But we don't have that information to go on. So to compare Pope (just as an example), to our own two keepers, while trying to stay away from mere opinion, I think it's helpful - but not DEFINITIVE - to look at base metrics that keeper's can be comparatively judged on, even if the numbers hint at "outlierness". So I can assess from looking at him that Pope is a better keeper this season than Karius or Mignolet. I can look at that base metric, and it will say the same. The problem arises when the base metric doesn't match the eye test. Like saying "De Gea is a terrible keeper" while his metrics say that he's way overperforming. At that point, I think it's better to rely on the metrics, even if they are on shaky statistical ground?
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Offline Mizerooskie

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Re: Team Analysis: Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool Tactics (*)
« Reply #4361 on: January 19, 2018, 08:17:05 pm »
I agree with the bolded. The thing is, without a deep knowledge of what a keeper's position entails, and without experience to observe from, most of us can't really speak confidently and objectively about keeper performance - so the next best thing is to look at metrics, as simple as they are, because they will at least give us a tool to be able to rank players side by side, even if they are statistically and methodologically flawed. For me, the eye test tells me that Nick Pope is a better keeper than Mignolet, and probably, Karius. By how much, though, I couldn't say. And clearly and obviously, his performance level (rather than his actual metrics) might be enhanced by how Burnley play, and thus might be negatively impacted in another set up. But we don't have that information to go on. So to compare Pope (just as an example), to our own two keepers, while trying to stay away from mere opinion, I think it's helpful - but not DEFINITIVE - to look at base metrics that keeper's can be comparatively judged on, even if the numbers hint at "outlierness". So I can assess from looking at him that Pope is a better keeper this season than Karius or Mignolet. I can look at that base metric, and it will say the same. The problem arises when the base metric doesn't match the eye test. Like saying "De Gea is a terrible keeper" while his metrics say that he's way overperforming. At that point, I think it's better to rely on the metrics, even if they are on shaky statistical ground?
Like the metric indicating Fabianski is better than Courtois, or Mignolet is roughly as good as Ederson?  :wave

I don't disagree with your premise, by the way, and I'm all for attempting to objectively evaluate given a lack of inside, expert knowledge (which I certainly don't come close to having).

Who'd have thought it?  Sean Dyche, the destroyer of statistical models.

Offline PoetryInMotion

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Re: Team Analysis: Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool Tactics (*)
« Reply #4362 on: January 19, 2018, 08:18:27 pm »
I don't think the sample size is the issue when we talk about this.  More the context in how the sample size is viewed.

We've gone back and forth about this before but Heaton and Pope's stats just make this view too simplistic in my mind.  Maybe I'm completely wrong and Burnley are the best in the country at finding GK's but when you look at how Burnley have outperformed xGA the last 3 and a 1/2 years consistently then something else is at play here:



Burnley is consistently breaking the model.  That's understandable when Messi does it as he's just not human when it comes to football.  Everybody else though usually comes back to the mean.  I think then it's safe to argue that the quality of shots Burnley GKers face are lower than anybody accounts for.  Would Migs/Karius be putting up similar numbers to them small sample size or not if they played in that exact same team that plays that exact same way?  I would bet you they would.

So again without more context a simple shot saved % I would find to be hugely misleading and barely helpful in determining an upgrade on what we have.

This is extremely important and current stats just cannot account for it. I'm pretty sure that our team not only faces high XGA per shot, but also the number of defensive bodies between the attacker and the GK is very low. This often happens when we're out of shape and countered when we have just committed numbers ahead. I have an idea that we will always record comparatively less save percentage than most of our rivals who play a different way to ours. That doesn't mean we cannot upgrade in this position, which we can - but the same GKs will look better with better stats in a different system.

I clearly believe that defensive stats like tackles, interceptions and save percentages for GKs don't tell much about the quality of the players in question, but more about the nature of the side they belong to. Some sides resort to more blocks than tackles and if you see the defenders of those teams, they'll all have considerably more blocks in general. Some sides have more interceptions, they always perform tactical marking to block passes. Some sides are aggressive and tackle a lot. I remember Babu writing about this in the Full Back thread while discussing statistics. The attacking stats are sophisticated enough, but defensive stats are yet to be as precise and relevant while using them to discuss the quality of players.

Offline PoetryInMotion

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Re: Team Analysis: Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool Tactics (*)
« Reply #4363 on: January 19, 2018, 08:21:47 pm »
Like the metric indicating Fabianski is better than Courtois, or Mignolet is roughly as good as Ederson?  :wave

I don't disagree with your premise, by the way, and I'm all for attempting to objectively evaluate given a lack of inside, expert knowledge (which I certainly don't come close to having).

Who'd have thought it?  Sean Dyche, the destroyer of statistical models.

It's not just Sean Dyche though. You can evaluate styles of play of a lot of teams using several defensive stats that are currently available.

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Re: Team Analysis: Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool Tactics (*)
« Reply #4364 on: January 19, 2018, 08:34:58 pm »


I clearly believe that defensive stats like tackles, interceptions and save percentages for GKs don't tell much about the quality of the players in question, but more about the nature of the side they belong to. Some sides resort to more blocks than tackles and if you see the defenders of those teams, they'll all have considerably more blocks in general. Some sides have more interceptions, they always perform tactical marking to block passes. Some sides are aggressive and tackle a lot. I remember Babu writing about this in the Full Back thread while discussing statistics. The attacking stats are sophisticated enough, but defensive stats are yet to be as precise and relevant while using them to discuss the quality of players.

Would you say the same for strikers and shots to goals?
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Offline PoetryInMotion

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Re: Team Analysis: Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool Tactics (*)
« Reply #4365 on: January 19, 2018, 09:50:37 pm »
Would you say the same for strikers and shots to goals?

Yes, to an extent. Frequency of shots definitely tell about the style of play, the same striker could be taking more/less shots in a different type of side. But shots to goals ratio is fairly a decent inference of quality, especially as you can segregate the absolute elite from the rest. This is because, your striker doesn't face opponents of one particular style. Some opponents pack their box to defend. Some defend from the front. He faces everyone from the league, so when you compare the striker with other strikers, you can have a balanced inference from the shots to goals rate.

However, if you're a goalie, you're always stuck in the same defensive system. Your team defends the way it's been coached to. It helps when you've more bodies limiting the striker's options, it gives the GK less options to think about and in turn help get more decisions right and make more saves.

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Re: Team Analysis: Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool Tactics (*)
« Reply #4366 on: January 19, 2018, 10:13:03 pm »
Yes, to an extent. Frequency of shots definitely tell about the style of play, the same striker could be taking more/less shots in a different type of side. But shots to goals ratio is fairly a decent inference of quality, especially as you can segregate the absolute elite from the rest. This is because, your striker doesn't face opponents of one particular style. Some opponents pack their box to defend. Some defend from the front. He faces everyone from the league, so when you compare the striker with other strikers, you can have a balanced inference from the shots to goals rate.

However, if you're a goalie, you're always stuck in the same defensive system. Your team defends the way it's been coached to. It helps when you've more bodies limiting the striker's options, it gives the GK less options to think about and in turn help get more decisions right and make more saves.

As a striker, you're always stuck in the same attacking system though.

The rate of shots on target to goals has been consistently 3:1 (and a few fluctuating decimals) since Charles Reep took a miner's lamp, a notepad and a #2 pencil to a game.

So if the standard for a striker is 33% accuracy, that means the standard for keeper saves (because a shot on target can only be a goal or a save) must be 66%. And if that's the case, then we can surely look at keepers with the same standardized view, and judge a keeper to be "above average", "average" or "below average" at least at shot-stopping, which is their basic task, no?
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Re: Team Analysis: Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool Tactics (*)
« Reply #4367 on: January 19, 2018, 10:26:26 pm »
Would you say the same for strikers and shots to goals?

This wasn't really directed at me but any stat should never be viewed in isolation.  If we did then Rashford's first year (or first handful of games) had him outperforming Messi which we all know is laughable.

Charles Reep - Isn't this the guy that was the basis for the downfall of English footie and his profound wrongness produced the likes of Wimbledon and their ilk? 
« Last Edit: January 19, 2018, 10:28:13 pm by BrandoLFC »

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Re: Team Analysis: Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool Tactics (*)
« Reply #4368 on: January 19, 2018, 10:34:33 pm »
This wasn't really directed at me but any stat should never be viewed in isolation.  If we did then Rashford's first year (or first handful of games) had him outperforming Messi which we all know is laughable.

Charles Reep - Isn't this the guy that was the basis for the downfall of English footie and his profound wrongness produced the likes of Wimbledon and their ilk?

Possibly. Well, not really. That was Charles Hughes. Reep is the erstwhile father of notational analysis in football. Without him, we might not have Opta ;D
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Offline BrandoLFC

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Re: Team Analysis: Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool Tactics (*)
« Reply #4369 on: January 19, 2018, 10:40:08 pm »
No, I'm pretty sure I'm right.  Yes he is the father of modern football analytics but he was the one to convince Hughes to play that way:

Poring over all the scraps of data he’d collected, Reep eventually came to a realization: Most goals in soccer come off of plays that were preceded by three passes or fewer. And in Reep’s mind, this basic truth of the game should dictate how teams play. The key to winning more matches seemed to be as simple as cutting down on your passing and possession time, and getting the ball downfield as quickly as possible instead. The long ball was Reep’s secret weapon.

“Not more than three passes,” Reep admonished during a 1993 interview with the BBC. “If a team tries to play football and keeps it down to not more than three passes, it will have a much higher chance of winning matches. Passing for the sake of passing can be disastrous.

This was it: Maybe the first case in history of an actionable sports strategy derived from next-level data collection, such as it was. And Reep got more than a few important folks to listen to his ideas, too. It took him a few decades of preaching, but Reep’s recommended playing style was adopted to instant success by Wimbledon F.C. in the 1980s, and then reached the highest echelons of English soccer — channeled as it was through the combination of England manager Graham Taylor and Football Association coaching director Charles Hughes, each of whom believed in hoofing the ball up the pitch and chasing it down (and now seemed to have the data to back up their intuition). The long ball was suddenly England’s official footballing policy.”

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Re: Team Analysis: Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool Tactics (*)
« Reply #4370 on: January 19, 2018, 10:46:35 pm »
As a striker, you're always stuck in the same attacking system though.

The rate of shots on target to goals has been consistently 3:1 (and a few fluctuating decimals) since Charles Reep took a miner's lamp, a notepad and a #2 pencil to a game.

So if the standard for a striker is 33% accuracy, that means the standard for keeper saves (because a shot on target can only be a goal or a save) must be 66%. And if that's the case, then we can surely look at keepers with the same standardized view, and judge a keeper to be "above average", "average" or "below average" at least at shot-stopping, which is their basic task, no?


This implies only strikers are taking shots. That’s not the case.
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Re: Team Analysis: Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool Tactics (*)
« Reply #4371 on: January 19, 2018, 10:48:18 pm »
Unfortunately us fans have seen 2 years more mistakes than he has. I honestly don't think we'll buy a new keeper in summer either. Genuinely don't, I truly believe Klopp thinks the guys he's got are more than good enough.
Bizarre, I think the opposite. He knows Mignolet isn't good enough, he's seen enough and knows he won't be his keeper going forward. He's seen much less of Karius so he's giving him until summer to show his worth, if not then we sign a new keeper. Fair enough I say.

Unfortunately I don't think either will be good enough, and we will have to sign a new one. It's a massive shame with Karius because it seemed like a no-brainer signing, and it would have been very convenient if he'd brought his form at Mainz with him. Would have been cool to have a German between the sticks. Having said that, I think his time with us has been strange. Had a few shockers at the start, should have saved Sane's shot, but the run of games he had inbetween these periods have been quite unremarkable, as in he's not done anything good or bad. Just hasn't been tested really. Speaking of the City game, I'm not sure if this is just selective memory, but other than Sane's goal, wasn't he generally okay? Did well with the crosses..?

Offline PoetryInMotion

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Re: Team Analysis: Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool Tactics (*)
« Reply #4372 on: January 19, 2018, 10:51:09 pm »
As a striker, you're always stuck in the same attacking system though.

The rate of shots on target to goals has been consistently 3:1 (and a few fluctuating decimals) since Charles Reep took a miner's lamp, a notepad and a #2 pencil to a game.

So if the standard for a striker is 33% accuracy, that means the standard for keeper saves (because a shot on target can only be a goal or a save) must be 66%. And if that's the case, then we can surely look at keepers with the same standardized view, and judge a keeper to be "above average", "average" or "below average" at least at shot-stopping, which is their basic task, no?

This is the mean. As I said, it's more the frequency of shots that is dependent on the attacking system rather than shot accuracy itself, because shot accuracy is completely down to the player. Of course, he will face some buses, but since he's only relatively compared with other strikers who face the same opponents as himself, there's not a huge deviant because the standard of opponents in defense will come to a mean for all the strikers.

This is not quite the same for goalkeepers, because their effectiveness is more dependent on their own setup of the defense (considering a decent to large sample space) than anything else.

I would say why we cannot standardize the save percentage for GKs yet.

1) xG factor and beyond xG. From an attacker's point of view, the attacker actually decides how much better he is from the xG standards. So, the more shots the attacker gets on target for relatively less xG, the better his finishing is. But the GK, does not actually decide how much better he is to XGA. First, the attacker dictates the position of his shot. So, the xGA is already set even before the GK is called into action. Second, the way a team is setup decides the xGA they can expect to concede. This again is not decided by the GK. Beyond xG, xG also doesn't calculate the number of defensive players between the attacker and the GK. So, while calculating shot accuracy, this becomes a lesser factor because the striker faces all the opponents who have conceded xGA at various rates. However, this becomes an increasing factor for the GK, because the GK always stands for the same defense which has conceded more/less xGA and in turn looks better/worse than he is.

2) The impact of an attacking system on a striker while attempting to shoot on target, is much much lesser than the impact of a defensive system is for a GK who is about to make a save. For a striker, who is about to shoot on goal with a specific xG, it does not matter the positions of his team-mates or how they attack, whether they played pass and move or whether they played a long ball, or whether they played a low cross to get to that position. It only matters that the striker is able to get the shot on target from that position and preferably beyond the GK. However, for a GK to make a save, the impact of the defensive system of his team is very important, throughout the move and right at the point when the shot is taken and the save has to be made. If a CB is successfully able to thwart an attacker to his non-favorite foot, same ball position but different body position, a few seconds delaying the attacker from the shot etc. are all able to impact how well the GK is going to make the save. Teams that consistently and successfully manage to do the above will help their GKs considerably without even affecting the xGA numbers that they face.

This is evident from the fact that the Save Percentages of both Mignolet and Karius have both dropped significantly from their times at the previous clubs. We may all discuss about our GKs and how they've regressed or have our doubts on our GK coach Achterberg, but the impact of our style of play is indeed high. We hardly have numbers at the back when we defend. Even worse when we defend counters. A few seconds of delay is lost. A bit of forcing hurried shots by tight marking is lost. A bit of pressure to change the striker's body position/angle is lost. Sometimes difficult shots look easy to score against us, because of the time and space they have. I'm very sure that a GK playing in Burnley's or even Chelsea's setup is a lot more protected (however good the GK maybe) than he would be at ours (both save percentage and xGA wise). If we sign Oblak, we will of course improve, but I'm sure that his save percentage will drop at LFC than at Atletico. And it will not mean that he regressed during one transfer window.
« Last Edit: January 19, 2018, 10:57:41 pm by PoetryInMotion »

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Re: Team Analysis: Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool Tactics (*)
« Reply #4373 on: January 19, 2018, 10:52:07 pm »
Wish we just kep Reina.

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Re: Team Analysis: Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool Tactics (*)
« Reply #4374 on: January 19, 2018, 10:59:00 pm »
No, I'm pretty sure I'm right.  Yes he is the father of modern football analytics but he was the one to convince Hughes to play that way:

Poring over all the scraps of data he’d collected, Reep eventually came to a realization: Most goals in soccer come off of plays that were preceded by three passes or fewer. And in Reep’s mind, this basic truth of the game should dictate how teams play. The key to winning more matches seemed to be as simple as cutting down on your passing and possession time, and getting the ball downfield as quickly as possible instead. The long ball was Reep’s secret weapon.

“Not more than three passes,” Reep admonished during a 1993 interview with the BBC. “If a team tries to play football and keeps it down to not more than three passes, it will have a much higher chance of winning matches. Passing for the sake of passing can be disastrous.

This was it: Maybe the first case in history of an actionable sports strategy derived from next-level data collection, such as it was. And Reep got more than a few important folks to listen to his ideas, too. It took him a few decades of preaching, but Reep’s recommended playing style was adopted to instant success by Wimbledon F.C. in the 1980s, and then reached the highest echelons of English soccer — channeled as it was through the combination of England manager Graham Taylor and Football Association coaching director Charles Hughes, each of whom believed in hoofing the ball up the pitch and chasing it down (and now seemed to have the data to back up their intuition). The long ball was suddenly England’s official footballing policy.”


Everything Reep said has been shown to be based on sound data. Hughes, the same. The problem was their interpretations of that data.

The biggest thing that came from both Reep and Hughes?

Pressing.
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Offline PhaseOfPlay

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Re: Team Analysis: Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool Tactics (*)
« Reply #4375 on: January 19, 2018, 10:59:41 pm »
This is the mean. As I said, it's more the frequency of shots that is dependent on the attacking system rather than shot accuracy itself, because shot accuracy is completely down to the player. Of course, he will face some buses, but since he's only relatively compared with other strikers who face the same opponents as himself, there's not a huge deviant because the standard of opponents in defense will come to a mean for all the strikers.

This is not quite the same for goalkeepers, because their effectiveness is more dependent on their own setup of the defense (considering a decent to large sample space) than anything else.

I would say why we cannot standardize the save percentage for GKs yet.

1) xG factor and beyond xG. From an attacker's point of view, the attacker actually decides how much better he is from the xG standards. So, the more shots the attacker gets on target for relatively less xG, the better his finishing is. But the GK, does not actually decide how much better he is to XGA. First, the attacker dictates the position of his shot. So, the xGA is already set even before the GK is called into action. Second, the way a team is setup decides the xGA they can expect to concede. This again is not decided by the GK. Beyond xG, xG also doesn't calculate the number of defensive players between the attacker and the GK. So, while calculating shot accuracy, this becomes a lesser factor because the striker faces all the opponents who have conceded xGA at various rates. However, this becomes an increasing factor for the GK, because the GK always stands for the same defense which has conceded more/less xGA and in turn looks better/worse than he is.

2) The impact of an attacking system on a striker while attempting to shoot on target, is much much lesser than the impact of a defensive system is for a GK who is about to make a save. For a striker, who is about to shoot on goal with a specific xG, it does not matter the positions of his team-mates or how they attack, whether they played pass and move or whether they played a long ball, or whether they played a low cross to get to that position. It only matters that the striker is able to get the shot on target from that position and preferably beyond the GK. However, for a GK to make a save, the impact of the defensive system of his team is very important, throughout the move and right at the point when the shot is taken and the save has to be made. If a CB is successfully able to thwart an attacker to his non-favorite foot, same ball position but different body position, a few seconds delaying the attacker from the shot etc. are all able to impact how well the GK is going to make the save. Teams that consistently and successfully manage to do the above will help their GKs considerably without even affecting the xGA numbers that they face.

This is evident from the fact that the Save Percentages of both Mignolet and Karius have both dropped significantly from their times at the previous clubs. We may all discuss about our GKs and how they've regressed or have our doubts on our GK coach Achterberg, but the impact of our style of play is indeed high. We hardly have numbers at the back when we defend. Even worse when we defend counters. A few seconds of delay is lost. A bit of forcing hurried shots by tight marking is lost. A bit of pressure to change the striker's body position/angle is lost. Sometimes difficult shots look easy to score against us, because of the time and space they have. I'm very sure that a GK playing in Burnley's or even Chelsea's setup is a lot more protected (however good the GK maybe) than he would be at ours (both save percentage and xGA wise). If we sign Oblak, we will of course improve, but I'm sure that his save percentage will drop at LFC than at Atletico. And it will not mean that he regressed during one transfer window.

Fair points!
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Offline PoetryInMotion

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Re: Team Analysis: Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool Tactics (*)
« Reply #4376 on: January 19, 2018, 11:10:25 pm »
Everything Reep said has been shown to be based on sound data. Hughes, the same. The problem was their interpretations of that data.

The biggest thing that came from both Reep and Hughes?

Pressing.

Counter-pressing does seem very much aligned to Reep's analysis indeed.

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Re: Team Analysis: Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool Tactics (*)
« Reply #4377 on: January 19, 2018, 11:36:28 pm »


Everything Reep said has been shown to be based on sound data. Hughes, the same. The problem was their interpretations of that data.

Not entirely. Jonathan Wilson points out that Reep's data showed that 91.5% of moves analysed involved 3 passes or fewer; but less than 80% of goals. Leaving aside several other criticisms, moves of 3 passes or fewer were actually LESS likely to result in a goal, not more.
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Re: Team Analysis: Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool Tactics (*)
« Reply #4378 on: January 19, 2018, 11:39:50 pm »
Not entirely. Jonathan Wilson points out that Reep's data showed that 91.5% of moves analysed involved 3 passes or fewer; but less than 80% of goals. Leaving aside several other criticisms, moves of 3 passes or fewer were actually LESS likely to result in a goal, not more.

I think Wilson (if you're referring to "Inverting the Pyramid") conflated some numbers from Reep and Hughes, for a start.

But yes, probability-wise, longer strings of passes have a higher probability of goals.

But lower strings of passes have more frequency.

The average pass streak in football is 5 passes. So most goals being scored from 3 passes or less is generally correct. But having 3 passes or less in a possession doesn't guarantee a goal, or increase it's probability. Reep's point, initially, was that teams who were trying to ape the Hungarian style and seeking to have long strings of passes were missing the point that Hungary's goals mostly came from the same 3-passes or less ratio that Reep expounded. Hughes increased the number to 5 passes or less. His idea was the same - don't look deliberately for longer strings of passes as a way of scoring goals, because longer strings of passes tend to break down without a shot more often than lower strings of passes.


Which is why following Reep or Hughes ideas requires a massive quantity of entries into the attacking third in every game.

But it works.
« Last Edit: January 19, 2018, 11:43:09 pm by PhaseOfPlay »
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Offline Alist0r

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Re: Team Analysis: Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool Tactics (*)
« Reply #4379 on: January 20, 2018, 12:24:34 am »
I've just started a blog talking about football tactics, and couldn't ask for a better game to start with than Sunday's match!

It's my first one and would be really interested in your opinions on my thoughts and if you've got time, any feedback would be appreciated.

https://tacticali.wordpress.com/2018/01/20/liverpool-vs-manchester-city-14-1-17/

Hope you guys enjoy it.

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Re: Team Analysis: Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool Tactics (*)
« Reply #4380 on: January 20, 2018, 12:39:41 am »
I love all the analysis but to blunt when it comes to Keepers a lot of it has to come down to the immeasurables.

There is nowhere to hide, you can't pass on the blame and the higher you go there is less room for error.

A large part of being a keeper is the attitude, cajones whatever you want to call it.

The best keepers have a unique ability. The ability to think they are infallible but at the same time rebound from their mistakes.
.
An ability to make a calamitous mistake one moment but then produce a worldie the next.

For me that is what our keepers lack. That arrogance and that mad desire to look adversity in the face.
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Re: Team Analysis: Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool Tactics (*)
« Reply #4381 on: January 20, 2018, 01:18:04 am »
I’m reading a lot into this but I think, assuming that Karius performs reasonably well the rest of the year, that Karius will be #1 choice next year, Ward will be #2, and Migs will be sold.

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Re: Team Analysis: Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool Tactics (*)
« Reply #4382 on: January 20, 2018, 03:05:43 am »
I love all the analysis but to blunt when it comes to Keepers a lot of it has to come down to the immeasurables.

There is nowhere to hide, you can't pass on the blame and the higher you go there is less room for error.

A large part of being a keeper is the attitude, cajones whatever you want to call it.

The best keepers have a unique ability. The ability to think they are infallible but at the same time rebound from their mistakes.
.
An ability to make a calamitous mistake one moment but then produce a worldie the next.

For me that is what our keepers lack. That arrogance and that mad desire to look adversity in the face.
It’s a bit like a non-team sport like tennis or boxing or similar. I think individual sports are significantly more demanding of mental strength, and goalkeepers have this too.

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Re: Team Analysis: Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool Tactics (*)
« Reply #4383 on: January 20, 2018, 05:00:01 am »
Fewest shots conceded per-game across Europe’s top five leagues:

6.83 Man City
7.40 Napoli
7.91 Liverpool
8.16 EIBAR
8.65 Juventus
8.74 Spurs
9.06 Bayern
9.25 PSG
9.56 Real Madrid

Most shots attempted per-game across Europe’s top five leagues:

19.28 Real Madrid
18.67 Bayern Munich
18.42 Roma
18.00 Napoli
17.87 Liverpool
17.70 PSG
17.65 Man City
17.57 Spurs
17.40 Fiorentina
17.35 Milan

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Re: Team Analysis: Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool Tactics (*)
« Reply #4384 on: January 20, 2018, 12:42:22 pm »
What.

Mignolet has been here two years longer than Klopp mate. It's not rocket science.

I see no reason to disbelieve Klopp's latest comments. If Karius shows a little form we won't be signing a keeper. Klopp only signs players as last resort. He prefers to work with what he has. He's said that so many times.

"My favourite solution, always, is that we do it with our boys," Klopp said.

A quote from yesterday. I see no reason why he'd lie about that. If he was certain he was going to buy a keeper like some of you are making out he wouldn't have said anything.
« Last Edit: January 20, 2018, 12:46:14 pm by clinical »
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Re: Team Analysis: Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool Tactics (*)
« Reply #4385 on: January 20, 2018, 12:50:34 pm »
Mignolet has been here two years longer than Klopp mate. It's not rocket science.

I see no reason to disbelieve Klopp's latest comments. If Karius shows a little form we won't be signing a keeper. Klopp only signs players as last resort. He prefers to work with what he has. He's said that so many times.

"My favourite solution, always, is that we do it with our boys," Klopp said.

A quote from yesterday. I see no reason why he'd lie about that. If he was certain he was going to buy a keeper like some of you are making out he wouldn't have said anything.
But (and this is why Kashinoda asked 'what?') Klopp was talking about Karius, and you've chosen to interpret that as being happy with both Karius and Mignolet.

I'll bet a decent amount of money that Mignolet will leave in the summer, Karius won't, and we will sign a keeper. I suspect whether we sign the world class keeper many want (and Karius drops to backup for a year or two before leaving), or another promising young keeper (with Karius having 'earned' the starting role), depends on how Karius plays for the rest of this season. But Mignolet will be gone.
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Re: Team Analysis: Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool Tactics (*)
« Reply #4386 on: January 20, 2018, 12:55:57 pm »
But (and this is why Kashinoda asked 'what?') Klopp was talking about Karius, and you've chosen to interpret that as being happy with both Karius and Mignolet.

I'll bet a decent amount of money that Mignolet will leave in the summer, Karius won't, and we will sign a keeper. I suspect whether we sign the world class keeper many want (and Karius drops to backup for a year or two before leaving), or another promising young keeper (with Karius having 'earned' the starting role), depends on how Karius plays for the rest of this season. But Mignolet will be gone.

Yeah I agree with that. And the likely hood is Mignoet will leave. Not sure it's that clear cut though as we won't sell him on cheap. I just can't see clubs coming in for him with the wages he's on. I suppose he could end up going on loan.

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Re: Team Analysis: Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool Tactics (*)
« Reply #4387 on: January 20, 2018, 03:26:09 pm »
Yeah I agree with that. And the likely hood is Mignoet will leave. Not sure it's that clear cut though as we won't sell him on cheap. I just can't see clubs coming in for him with the wages he's on. I suppose he could end up going on loan.

In today's market we won't sell him at a loss but as you said, his wages reportedly at 50k per week may become a hinderance. In the end it depends what he wants. Is he happy being no.2 or would he prefer to drop his wages for first team football.

I think he is more than capable of being no.1 in many premiere league teams and less pressure on playing for a big club may actually help him.

The player that I worriedly think may struggle in a dynamic Klopp team is Henderson. His injuries is not abating. His speed is never going to be increasing. And I genuinely think that Gini may have just played himself into the central midfield role ahead of Henderson.
« Last Edit: January 20, 2018, 03:29:35 pm by RedForeverTT »

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Re: Team Analysis: Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool Tactics (*)
« Reply #4388 on: January 20, 2018, 04:54:36 pm »
In today's market we won't sell him at a loss but as you said, his wages reportedly at 50k per week may become a hinderance. In the end it depends what he wants. Is he happy being no.2 or would he prefer to drop his wages for first team football.

I think he is more than capable of being no.1 in many premiere league teams and less pressure on playing for a big club may actually help him.

The player that I worriedly think may struggle in a dynamic Klopp team is Henderson. His injuries is not abating. His speed is never going to be increasing. And I genuinely think that Gini may have just played himself into the central midfield role ahead of Henderson.

Try doubling that £50k. No club will pay a big fee and his wages.
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Re: Team Analysis: Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool Tactics (*)
« Reply #4389 on: January 20, 2018, 10:57:30 pm »
Given the far smaller range of actions a keeper makes, would it be better to statistically look at what's asked of him conpared to his goals ratio? How often is he correctly positioned, how often does he correctly come for (and claim) crosses. How often are is hands low , etc etc.  I suppose some keepers are still making good saves despite making the wrong choice, ie positioned wrongly but leap like salmon to keep out shots. Easily compensated for statistically id imagine. Like someone earlier said, our keepers dont seem to make unexpected saves. Maybe because they are exposed to relatively few shots? I guess there is a lot more data about performance in training, but how that translates to game, or other keepers....
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Offline PhaseOfPlay

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Re: Team Analysis: Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool Tactics (*)
« Reply #4390 on: January 20, 2018, 11:07:49 pm »
Given the far smaller range of actions a keeper makes, would it be better to statistically look at what's asked of him conpared to his goals ratio? How often is he correctly positioned, how often does he correctly come for (and claim) crosses. How often are is hands low , etc etc.  I suppose some keepers are still making good saves despite making the wrong choice, ie positioned wrongly but leap like salmon to keep out shots. Easily compensated for statistically id imagine. Like someone earlier said, our keepers dont seem to make unexpected saves. Maybe because they are exposed to relatively few shots? I guess there is a lot more data about performance in training, but how that translates to game, or other keepers....

The save percentage (reverse shots on target to goals ratio, almost) doesn't tell you anything more about a keeper than how they perform in their basic task, in general. There's a lot of great discussion about the statistics of it, but I think people are getting worked up about a measurement that is basically a "foot in the door". As you say, Paul - there are other things to look at as well. But as a base measurement of how a keeper is performing, a "save percentage" fulfills the same function as a "goals to game" ratio for strikers - you shouldn't be buying a player off that metric, strictly, but it might weed out a number of strikers you don't need to look at (or keepers, in this case).

Of course, that also means you might occasionally miss someone who is going under the radar ;D
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Re: Team Analysis: Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool Tactics (*)
« Reply #4391 on: January 21, 2018, 12:25:43 pm »
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/l4T7p_usq4k" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/l4T7p_usq4k</a>
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Re: Team Analysis: Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool Tactics (*)
« Reply #4392 on: January 21, 2018, 01:18:59 pm »
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/l4T7p_usq4k" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/l4T7p_usq4k</a>

Poetry in motion.
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Re: Team Analysis: Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool Tactics (*)
« Reply #4393 on: January 21, 2018, 02:14:35 pm »
The difference is it's Everton an no-one gives a shit if Pickford is making mistakes. If he was playing for a big club which has higher expectations he'd be in the spotlight much more.
Also punditry here, especially when it comes to English 'keepers, barely pays any attention to distribution beyond an ability to kick it long or throw it well (if it leads to an attack), and there's no real appreciation of how positioning affects one on ones (it's just he was either quick/slow off his line, should/shouldn't have come for it, all based on hindsight of whether it ended in a goal/shot/free-kick or not). And there's little to no analysis of how a 'keeper's approach impacts overall tactics (witness the handwringing over Hart being dropped and the instant clamour for Liverpool to buy him).
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Re: Team Analysis: Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool Tactics (*)
« Reply #4394 on: January 21, 2018, 03:37:35 pm »
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/l4T7p_usq4k" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/l4T7p_usq4k</a>
Christ but we've scored some lovely goals this season. Klopp really has the lads playing some wonderful stuff when it all clicks. This is what football should be.

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Re: Team Analysis: Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool Tactics (*)
« Reply #4395 on: January 23, 2018, 08:01:49 am »
Why do we struggle  so much to break down teams who let us have so much of the ball?

@DanKennett on twitter :
2 of Klopp's last 12 defeats were to Man City and Spurs. 
The other 10 and the amount of possession:
Burnley A 80%
Bmouth A 60%
Saints A 68%
Swans H 73%
Saints H 72%
Wolves H 79%
Hull A 72%
Leics A 69%
Palace H 73%
Leics A 70%

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Re: Team Analysis: Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool Tactics (*)
« Reply #4396 on: January 23, 2018, 08:09:16 am »
Why do we struggle  so much to break down teams who let us have so much of the ball?

@DanKennett on twitter :
2 of Klopp's last 12 defeats were to Man City and Spurs. 
The other 10 and the amount of possession:
Burnley A 80%
Bmouth A 60%
Saints A 68%
Swans H 73%
Saints H 72%
Wolves H 79%
Hull A 72%
Leics A 69%
Palace H 73%
Leics A 70%
Part game state. these are games where we don't lead and so end up with a lot of possession

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Re: Team Analysis: Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool Tactics (*)
« Reply #4397 on: January 23, 2018, 08:26:34 am »
Why do we struggle  so much to break down teams who let us have so much of the ball?

@DanKennett on twitter :
2 of Klopp's last 12 defeats were to Man City and Spurs. 
The other 10 and the amount of possession:
Burnley A 80%
Bmouth A 60%
Saints A 68%
Swans H 73%
Saints H 72%
Wolves H 79%
Hull A 72%
Leics A 69%
Palace H 73%
Leics A 70%

When our three upfront attackers are isolated, our midfield doesn't offer much going forward. In games like Swansea, our second wave needs to push more and be more attacking,in order to break their line. Unfortunately, they never do that. That will change next season though,  when Keita joins.
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Re: Team Analysis: Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool Tactics (*)
« Reply #4398 on: January 23, 2018, 08:44:37 am »
We also don't play with a  lot of width which pulls players out of position, nor strikers who can head if a full back crosses it. Neat intricate passes are perhaps one of the systems most easily nullified by counter tactics in this case limiting space in which to make aforesaid intricate pass
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Re: Team Analysis: Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool Tactics (*)
« Reply #4399 on: January 23, 2018, 08:55:27 am »
Would we of been better off dropping a midfielder in to defence like against Brighton then?