Author Topic: Climate Emergency is already here. How much worse it gets is still up to us (?)  (Read 372482 times)

Offline Bioluminescence

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Re: Climate change is here — and worse than we thought - Discuss
« Reply #360 on: December 7, 2012, 10:52:47 pm »
Thanks - the answer's a no then. Again any (unbiased) reader can see the truth for themselves.

They can also see the whole reply I gave you, as well as all my other posts. Models are widely used in science but I'm no expert in them. Also if you want to evaluate climate models, you only need to look at climate models - models used to train pilots, for example, are useless and will tell you nothing about the validity of climate models.

I'm really not sure what your point is.

Offline MHLC

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Re: Climate change is here — and worse than we thought - Discuss
« Reply #361 on: December 7, 2012, 11:41:17 pm »
Christ some of you a sniffy lot.

;D

Not sniffy, just relentless in weighing up the evidence. Have already made my views clear about lack of faith on the political front.

Thanks - the answer's a no then. Again any (unbiased) reader can see the truth for themselves.

Unbiased? There's a wealth of research into human cognitive bias, but not so sure about the concept of "unbiased"? Other than it being a word in a dictionary, is there any research outlining how we are unbiased?

Your point seems to be that if there's no equivalent to the complexity of climate models the science in questionable. That's nonsense. All areas of science are open to doubt and scepticism without the need for facile comparison of one discipline against another. The progress of humanity is based on incremental knowledge, not dick waving contests.

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Re: Climate change is here — and worse than we thought - Discuss
« Reply #362 on: December 8, 2012, 01:56:31 am »


Your point seems to be that if there's no equivalent to the complexity of climate models the science in questionable. That's nonsense. All areas of science are open to doubt and scepticism without the need for facile comparison of one discipline against another. The progress of humanity is based on incremental knowledge, not dick waving contests.

Please stop waffling - this is the third time I have asked the question: if we have the technology available to accurately model the climate why can't we accurately model much simpler systems?

Why no answer? Are you keeping us all in suspense?
I know you struggle with reading comprehension Carlitos, but do try to pay attention

Offline MHLC

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Re: Climate change is here — and worse than we thought - Discuss
« Reply #363 on: December 8, 2012, 02:57:18 am »
Please stop waffling

Please don't patronise me.

Quote
- this is the third time I have asked the question: if we have the technology available to accurately model the climate why can't we accurately model much simpler systems?

Not sure I have ever put forward the idea of the certainty or accuracy of climate models. Are you not getting a sense of deja vu here?

Excuse me? Where I have I even mentioned anything about model accuracy in the last couple of pages. In fact, here's what I had to say at the beginning of the topic:

Quote
Why no answer? Are you keeping us all in suspense?

You have a lot to say about models, but very little on the wealth of empirical evidence. The two together make the case, just as the two together should provide a scientific case against if it exists. You're a sceptic and that's fine with me, but at least put up some scientific evidence to support your argument. lcfderek has put his bollocks on the line to back up his ideas - you just seem bogged down in semantics.

I've doubts about climate modelling due to its inherent complexity, but you've not put up anything remotely robust as the likes of Biolu or RojoLeon argument wise.
« Last Edit: December 8, 2012, 03:43:17 am by MHLC »

Offline RojoLeón

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Re: Climate change is here — and worse than we thought - Discuss
« Reply #364 on: December 8, 2012, 04:06:39 am »
I've doubts about climate modelling due to its inherent complexity, but you've not put up anything remotely robust as the likes of Biolu or RojoLeon argument wise.

Cheers, is nice of you to say. But Bio deserves most of the plaudits for keeping on point and not getting drawn into the petty snarking and disruptive tactics being shown by one or two of the conspiracy theorists skeptics.

Bio posted this which I have just got round to watching

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/NfobHy0a9CU" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/NfobHy0a9CU</a>

It is kind of hilarious, if it wasn't literally a matter of life and death:

On one side, you have these sad libertarian twats, and conspiracy theorists; Blogging about the 'watermelon conspiracy', and how it is a political agenda to bring about state socialism.

On the other side, you have Wesley fucking Clarke, as unlikely a fifth column for green socialist agendas as you could conceive of; stating that the situation is urgent, and 'we have to act now'.


But as at least one other poster has said, the readers here can see the truth for themselves.

http://www.davidicke.com/headlines/67435-david-icke--human-caused-climate-change-is-a-monumental-scam

http://www.prisonplanet.com/climate-change-this-is-the-worst-scientific-scandal-of-our-generation.html

The 'skeptic' position, is a conspiracy theory  :wave

Offline Bioluminescence

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Re: Climate change is here — and worse than we thought - Discuss
« Reply #365 on: December 8, 2012, 12:08:04 pm »
Please stop waffling - this is the third time I have asked the question: if we have the technology available to accurately model the climate why can't we accurately model much simpler systems?

Why no answer? Are you keeping us all in suspense?

Ah, I see, it's a bit of a strawman - make a statement that no one else is making, i.e. Bioluminescence is convinced that the modelling data predicts doom for us all, dismantle it, which is quite easy because no one is making such a claim, and claim some sort of victory.

But at the end of it all, you have still failed to show that models are useless/deeply flawed and you carry on ignoring the fact that we have empirical evidence that supports model outputs.   

Offline Andy @ Allerton!

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Re: Climate change is here — and worse than we thought - Discuss
« Reply #366 on: December 8, 2012, 12:19:57 pm »
As opposed to the 0-year window shown by contrarians?

It seems to me that climate scientists can never win with some. We have a period with good data, and scientists have replicated temperatures with good accuracy, showing they very likely have a very good understanding of how solar variability, volcanic activity, changes in atmospheric composition and other factors have affected the climate recently. Whereas contrarians have failed to get anywhere near this. Something to ponder perhaps?

I had a 4 billion year old window.
Quote from: tubby on Today at 12:45:53 pm

They both went in high, that's factually correct, both tried to play the ball at height.  Doku with his foot, Mac Allister with his chest.

Offline Bioluminescence

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Re: Climate change is here — and worse than we thought - Discuss
« Reply #367 on: December 8, 2012, 12:23:32 pm »
Christ some of you a sniffy lot. The quote from the Daily Mail (rightly known as the Daily Fail) is the fact that it is the Daily Mail. A MSM outlet with a large circulation. Whatever one's view the rag, it will effect public opinion. Politicians only care about public opinion.

The likely-hood of gaining votes will see the demise of the Global Warming Hysteria.

Me going on to the Wood for Trees site and running this graph from a few pages back



Excellent for getting a scientific point across - but not for emphasizing the political realities.

Edit
Now when the Grauniad puts up a graph like that - it is reality after all - the Global Warming Hiatus really will be over.

2015/16 is my best estimate.



I'm intrigued - how can oscillations explain long-term trends? If something varies between a negative and a positive phase, why would that affect the trends? This image might clear what I'm trying to ask:



Also such oscillations just move the heat around from oceans to the air and vice versa so they can't cause changes in long-term trends. And if the oceans are responsible for warming the air, then they would be cooling. That's simply not the case.

So yes, these oscillation in all likelihood have an impact on short-term temperature variations, but don't expect the long-term trend to change significantly.

Offline Andy @ Allerton!

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Re: Climate change is here — and worse than we thought - Discuss
« Reply #368 on: December 8, 2012, 12:24:36 pm »
It appears like there is a political divide because of the way things are reported, and by large circulation rags like the Mail/Telegraph/FoxNews stating that there is a debate.

There isn't an actual debate. The science is clear.



All that is left is disruption tactics - akin to how big tobacco fought the science linking cancer and smoking. And they will lose, like them, one way or another. But as with the tobacco-cancer science PR battle, many people will die due to them sowing distrust and disrupting the natural course of things.

Because, the steps necessary for combating climate change are not bad for the economy: They are only bad for polluting industries and the powerful, rich and influential fossil fuel industries.

If there really was a free market, then it would herald a change in the order of things. Instead, they are clinging on for dear life, and doubling down on the polluting practices and CO2 producing consumption.

I refer you to this article - it goes into much more detail than I have time for. Beautifully written, by the excellent Ms. Kein

http://www.thenation.com/article/164497/capitalism-vs-climate

It provides an insight to who the 'skeptic' side really are - they are shills and industry PR. And crackpot conspiracy theorists.



Even as a lay person, with no scientific training: Parse out the logic from the bullshit


 

What makes more sense is that the climate is changing as it always has and neither scenerio is likely.

Q: Has the climate changed without mankind being present? YES
Q: Has the climate changed with mankind being present? YES
Q: Will the climate change when mankind is dead and gone? YES
Quote from: tubby on Today at 12:45:53 pm

They both went in high, that's factually correct, both tried to play the ball at height.  Doku with his foot, Mac Allister with his chest.

Offline Bioluminescence

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Re: Climate change is here — and worse than we thought - Discuss
« Reply #369 on: December 8, 2012, 12:26:11 pm »
I had a 4 billion year old window.

I'm sorry, what is your point?

Offline vagabond

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Re: Climate change is here — and worse than we thought - Discuss
« Reply #370 on: December 8, 2012, 12:27:22 pm »
What makes more sense is that the climate is changing as it always has and neither scenerio is likely.

Q: Has the climate changed without mankind being present? YES
Q: Has the climate changed with mankind being present? YES
Q: Will the climate change when mankind is dead and gone? YES

Imagine a court scene where a defendant makes the same argument as above over a murder.

Would she have eventually died without me present? YES
Would she have eventually died with me present? YES
Would she have eventually died if I was already dead? YES

There you have it, your honour. Her death was inevitable therefore I am not culpable.
Sometimes a man stands up during supper
and walks outdoors, and keeps on walking,
because of a church that stands somewhere in the East.
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Offline Bioluminescence

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Re: Climate change is here — and worse than we thought - Discuss
« Reply #371 on: December 8, 2012, 12:28:16 pm »
What makes more sense is that the climate is changing as it always has and neither scenerio is likely.

Q: Has the climate changed without mankind being present? YES
Q: Has the climate changed with mankind being present? YES
Q: Will the climate change when mankind is dead and gone? YES

These are the wrong questions to ask. We need to ask whether we can avoid the worst of the impacts of climate change by changing our behaviour.

Offline Bioluminescence

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Re: Climate change is here — and worse than we thought - Discuss
« Reply #372 on: December 8, 2012, 12:29:22 pm »
Thanks Rojo and MHLC for the kind comments :wave

Offline Carlos: Very Kickable

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Re: Climate change is here — and worse than we thought - Discuss
« Reply #373 on: December 8, 2012, 12:47:56 pm »
What utter tripe.

The video is a load of military guys who are saying hey are specifically NOT interested in the science but are looking at "trends" and that "something bad is going on". IE it doesn't even address what we are discussing which is he proportion of global warming caused by human activity and, more specifically, what can be done about modulating that in the long term.

The only useful thing about the video is they mention on a number of occasions the uncertainty involved (but that we should act before we are certain otherwise it will be too late). At least this is a more intellectually honest postion than the "sad libertarian twats/conspiracy theorists VS true believers" debate characterised above - in fact even the use of these terms should set alarm bells ringing to any (unbiased) reader.

As I mentioned before doing "something" on this weight of evidence is fine as long as it's low cost low impact such as separating out your rubbish - if significant changes economic changes (which will impact on growth) are to be made a higher standard of proof is required - and just to remind you MHLC - the burden of proof is on your side of the argument.

As previously mentioned the discussion has become circular so I'm checking out of the thread - conceptually I don't see how much further we can go without a significant improvement in our capacity to model complex systems.

The emperor has no clothes.
I know you struggle with reading comprehension Carlitos, but do try to pay attention

Offline Andy @ Allerton!

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Re: Climate change is here — and worse than we thought - Discuss
« Reply #374 on: December 8, 2012, 12:53:42 pm »
Imagine a court scene where a defendant makes the same argument as above over a murder.

Would she have eventually died without me present? YES
Would she have eventually died with me present? YES
Would she have eventually died if I was already dead? YES

There you have it, your honour. Her death was inevitable therefore I am not culpable.

That's not even slightly the same comparison.

In what way could you possibly think it was even slightly similar?
Quote from: tubby on Today at 12:45:53 pm

They both went in high, that's factually correct, both tried to play the ball at height.  Doku with his foot, Mac Allister with his chest.

Offline Andy @ Allerton!

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Re: Climate change is here — and worse than we thought - Discuss
« Reply #375 on: December 8, 2012, 12:54:17 pm »
These are the wrong questions to ask. We need to ask whether we can avoid the worst of the impacts of climate change by changing our behaviour.

We should be changing our behaviour regardless.
Quote from: tubby on Today at 12:45:53 pm

They both went in high, that's factually correct, both tried to play the ball at height.  Doku with his foot, Mac Allister with his chest.

Offline Bioluminescence

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Re: Climate change is here — and worse than we thought - Discuss
« Reply #376 on: December 8, 2012, 12:57:33 pm »
We should be changing our behaviour regardless.

True, but climate change adds to the message. It doesn't make sense to me to say do things, such as recycle, for some reasons but not for other reasons, especially if your argument is that the Earth will still be standing once humans are gone.

Offline Bioluminescence

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Re: Climate change is here — and worse than we thought - Discuss
« Reply #377 on: December 8, 2012, 01:07:49 pm »
For me, the weakness of CQ's argument lies in the fact that he can't show climate science to be flawed but still chooses to dismiss it at a time when scientists are able to make statements with a higher degree of certainty as recent findings mainly confirm what seems to be the most likely outcome. Research isn't telling us that different outcomes are equally likely.

On top of that, CQ seems to think that changing behaviours can only lead to disaster from an economic viewpoint, in that it would damage growth. Yet it's already been pointed out to him that R&D, the development of renewable energy and other policies would have just the opposite effect - it would be a time of opportunities rather than one of restrictions.

Offline MHLC

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Re: Climate change is here — and worse than we thought - Discuss
« Reply #378 on: December 8, 2012, 02:45:23 pm »
and just to remind you MHLC - the burden of proof is on your side of the argument.

As previously mentioned the discussion has become circular so I'm checking out of the thread - conceptually I don't see how much further we can go without a significant improvement in our capacity to model complex systems.

Proof of what? Sorry to burst your balloon here, but the scientific argument has been settled for some time now. If you personally have evidence to dispute that science, bring it forward now.

Amusing how you keep asking me to make definitive claims on climate models and then go on to admit your entire argument is based on a conceptual idea in your head :lmao

Oh well. Take it easy mate, it's been emotional! The topic will have to make do with Andy's fallacious argument that as the planet is billions of years old then recent science is meaningless. Or was it because of nuclear weapons? Or that misplaced pass by Gerrard last weekend? I cant keep up with all the different theories.

Offline MHLC

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Re: Climate change is here — and worse than we thought - Discuss
« Reply #379 on: December 8, 2012, 04:04:51 pm »
Is now a good time to lighten the mood of the topic? ;D

Offline Bioluminescence

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Re: Climate change is here — and worse than we thought - Discuss
« Reply #380 on: December 8, 2012, 05:16:34 pm »
A hockey shtick!

Offline MHLC

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Re: Climate change is here — and worse than we thought - Discuss
« Reply #381 on: December 8, 2012, 06:09:48 pm »
I wouldn't want to be around when pages 18-23 come to pass. The immediate question is can we curb our reckless use of graphs in this topic before it becomes uncontrollable? This is part of the problem for me. CQ has already abdicated his responsibilities in the debate and kicked the problem down the road for others to deal with.
« Last Edit: December 8, 2012, 06:13:20 pm by MHLC »

Offline RojoLeón

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Re: Climate change is here — and worse than we thought - Discuss
« Reply #382 on: December 9, 2012, 02:05:39 am »
What utter tripe.

You would recognise that, eh?  ;D

The video is a load of military guys who are saying hey are specifically NOT interested in the science but are looking at "trends" and that "something bad is going on". IE it doesn't even address what we are discussing which is he proportion of global warming caused by human activity and, more specifically, what can be done about modulating that in the long term.

Yes. Like you, they don't fully understand the science. Unlike you, they see enough compelling information and have an economic and security imperative to act now. They reference that they have to lie to congress to get funding approved (pretend they want for reasons of national security, rather than climate change, due to political polarization of the debate).

Oh, and in case you haven't been paying attention. The science points towards climate change being caused by humans.

They know something needs to be done, they are acting now, and not because they have a green socialist aganda.

The only useful thing about the video is they mention on a number of occasions the uncertainty involved (but that we should act before we are certain otherwise it will be too late). At least this is a more intellectually honest postion than the "sad libertarian twats/conspiracy theorists VS true believers" debate characterised above - in fact even the use of these terms should set alarm bells ringing to any (unbiased) reader.

It is interesting to see you get so defensive about name calling, considering your past contributions to the debate.

Quote
It's all bollocks.

Its funny because you're all so obsessed with poring over graphs and charts predicting how the world works but its clear none of you actually have the first clue  :(

And as usual the environmentalist brigade (the emphasis being on the mental) expect everyone to go along with them on the strength of the “because I say it is” argument.
Well the burden of proof is on you not me and that burden increases the more you sacrifices you expect everyone to make.
If you are saying we are all going to hell in a handcart – that’s fine – we can add you to the list of loons on RAWK, no harm done.

It’s the same lefty, anti-corporate, tree hugging sandal toting agenda dressed up with some inadequate science. (oh, the irony  ;D)

BUt really none of that matters. Its just dressing up the lefty agenda in another guise to push it down people's throats. You mock people for questiooing the scientists yet feel free to dictate how poepl should run their businesses and what effect green taxes will have on them.

In my summation they seem of average intelligence, clearly well read but poorly educated. But I suspect I have a much broader definition of the term educated.

I am quite quite sure they have much worse things to say about me.  :wave

I use "educated" in the sense of your world view. And that's my point you're not evaluating all the evidence - you have a deep focus in a narrow field (in my view). As I said it's just my view but I don't consider someone to be truly educatede unless they have some wisdom too. I don't see much evidence of that. Not trying to offend - just my view. (you should be able to spell 'educated', before you haughtily criticize others education  :wave )

But as I said your evidence is certainly strong enough to convince you so please dont let me stop you from wearing your hemp shirt and burying your poo. Just dont expect anyone else to follow until theres something more convincing.

Use a septic tank, btw. Burying poo is a pathogen contamination risk to local groundwater supply  :wave


As I mentioned before doing "something" on this weight of evidence is fine as long as it's low cost low impact such as separating out your rubbish - if significant changes economic changes (which will impact on growth) are to be made a higher standard of proof is required - and just to remind you MHLC - the burden of proof is on your side of the argument.

Burden of proof, eh?

The US military are taking serious action. Not low cost, separating out their spent shell casings: Serious hardcore investment in protecting their energy security and adapting to the changing climate.

But the standard of proof isn't high enough for a random libertarian pleeb  ::)

The emperor has no clothes.

Interesting, as neither do any of your army of straw men  :wave

Offline xavidub

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Re: Climate change is here — and worse than we thought - Discuss
« Reply #383 on: December 9, 2012, 08:59:10 am »
This thread perfectly mirrors the climate 'debate'.

Imperfect, but copious empirical data showing definite anthropogenic climate change,

And a mixture of ad hom attacks, conspiracy bullshit, bought-and-paid for discredited 'scientists' and people sticking their fingers in their ears and singing so they cant listen, on the 'skeptical' side.

Depressing how wedded to money and ignorance so many people are and seem determined not to change
You have to try very hard to see what's going on in front of your face

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Re: Climate change is here — and worse than we thought - Discuss
« Reply #384 on: December 9, 2012, 10:47:49 am »
This thread perfectly mirrors the climate 'debate'.

Imperfect, but copious empirical data showing definite anthropogenic climate change,

And a mixture of ad hom attacks, conspiracy bullshit, bought-and-paid for discredited 'scientists' and people sticking their fingers in their ears and singing so they cant listen, on the 'skeptical' side.

Depressing how wedded to money and ignorance so many people are and seem determined not to change

People should be changing anyway. Not because there is a big stick, but because the way we treat our planet is pretty poor overall. There is plenty that we've started doing - recycling, saving energy and the like - but  there is more that people can do and there is more that Governments can do.

But they should be thinking of doing it anyway. If you have noticed then humanity is headstrong and committed. They don't like being pushed about. They don't like being told what to do.

You don't change people's opinions by bullying them or shouting at them or telling them they are wrong. You change people's opinions by getting them to see the benefits - whether that's montary through recycling, saving energy and the like or whether that's showing local impact.

You turn people's opinions by appealing to them and giving them information that is relevant to their sphere of existance relevant to their locality. Endlessly putting up random graphs that mean little to nothing to a lay-person isn't going to sway anyone. Then admitting that the data is from such a restricted source and for such a restricted timescale isn't then going to help your argument any.

We should be changing anyway. If Humanity is affecting the planet like many people think, then realistic goals that can be achieved by the average person is the way to go. If everyone starts saving energy, recycling more, driving less, using better fuels and sustainable things which help the environment and buy certain products and avoid others and do all those little things more and more then that will 'help the planet' and that should be the goal.

If you present 'evidence' make it obvious, clear, impartial and understandable. If it isn't then it's impact will be zero.

Given the scaremongering 'Scientists' have routinely done in the past (I'm in my mid-forties) you can only try and 'scare' the population so much before they think "Ah well fuck it. We've been warned about this that and the bloody other so much that we're clearly doomed whatever we do - it's going to be too hot, too cold, too wet, too dry and on and on and on.. Sod it. Not arsed any more"
Quote from: tubby on Today at 12:45:53 pm

They both went in high, that's factually correct, both tried to play the ball at height.  Doku with his foot, Mac Allister with his chest.

Offline Bioluminescence

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Re: Climate change is here — and worse than we thought - Discuss
« Reply #385 on: December 9, 2012, 11:23:25 am »
But they should be thinking of doing it anyway. If you have noticed then humanity is headstrong and committed. They don't like being pushed about. They don't like being told what to do.

You don't change people's opinions by bullying them or shouting at them or telling them they are wrong. You change people's opinions by getting them to see the benefits - whether that's montary through recycling, saving energy and the like or whether that's showing local impact.

Perhaps there would be less shouting if people with vested interests weren't deliberately spreading misinformation and causing confusion, leading to inaction while the problem gets more serious. Plenty of small solutions exist to help people save money and energy while cutting their CO2 emissions, but since people, and I have to include you in this, are still giving them excuses to do nothing, not enough is being done.

You turn people's opinions by appealing to them and giving them information that is relevant to their sphere of existance relevant to their locality. Endlessly putting up random graphs that mean little to nothing to a lay-person isn't going to sway anyone. Then admitting that the data is from such a restricted source and for such a restricted timescale isn't then going to help your argument any.

The discussion on this thread has been about the science, not about showing people what they can do. There's lots of information out there on what can be done that is helpful and non-agressive.


If you present 'evidence' make it obvious, clear, impartial and understandable. If it isn't then it's impact will be zero.

That is missing the point completely. The evidence is obvious, clear, impartial and understandable. But again vested interests are creating confusion and making it seem like there's plenty of debate to be had when this is not the case. Also we're back to double standards here - whereas climate scientists have made their case very clearly, contrarians haven't. Why should one side have to do all the work and the other can make whatever unsubstantiated claims it wants and get away with it? The evidence is mounting all the time, why are contrarians not required to meet basic standards?

Given the scaremongering 'Scientists' have routinely done in the past (I'm in my mid-forties) you can only try and 'scare' the population so much before they think "Ah well fuck it. We've been warned about this that and the bloody other so much that we're clearly doomed whatever we do - it's going to be too hot, too cold, too wet, too dry and on and on and on.. Sod it. Not arsed any more"

The reason the worst of problems have often been avoided is because we took action to mitigate these problems. From CFCs and the hole in the ozone layer, SO2 and NOx and acid precipitatation, tobacco and health, to HIV and AIDS, for example, when the science has been clear about potential problems we have been able to take action and solve/minimise the problem. In many cases though, action was delayed because vested interests had a lot to lose and opted to create confusion. In other cases, we've had the media get its knickers in a twist by misrepresenting the science or choosing to highlight extreme and unlikely scenarios. I think it's a bit more complicated than simply blaming the scientists, who can clearly improve by communicating things better, but politics, vested interests and the mass media also bear some responsibility in this mess.


Offline kennedy81

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Re: Climate change is here — and worse than we thought - Discuss
« Reply #386 on: December 9, 2012, 12:19:34 pm »
These are the wrong questions to ask. We need to ask whether we can avoid the worst of the impacts of climate change by changing our behaviour.

that's the key question really isn't it?
regardless of the answer, I think we should certainly change our behaviour.
aside from the possibility of a dangerous increase in global warming, there are other ways in which we are damaging our environment all in the name of profit making.
anyone who thinks that's ok is a fool.

the other question is, just how dangerous is an increase in global warming and how much can be called 'dangerous'.
I wouldn't mind an increase of a degree or two in this part of the world, if it meant a milder winter and a warmer, dryer summer.

I'm no scientist, so I'm prepared to listen to the evidence, so long as it's not politically driven.

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Re: Climate change is here — and worse than we thought - Discuss
« Reply #387 on: December 9, 2012, 12:21:48 pm »
It gets awfully tiresome showing you time after time how badly you miss the point. But here you are again - God loves a trier RJ! :wave


Oh, and in case you haven't been paying attention. The science points towards climate change being caused by humans.

Oh, in case you haven't been paying attention, I know it does "point towards it" -  that's not relevant to refuting the arguments ive been making in any of my posts - thanks for missing the point.


It is interesting to see you get so defensive about name calling, considering your past contributions to the debate.

Yes it would be interesting if that's what i'd done - but in fact I was objecting to the simplified way in which you characterised the debate when its clear that there is a large degree of uncertainty involved - but again thanks for demonstrating your comprehension skills and missing the point again.



The US military are taking serious action. Not low cost, separating out their spent shell casings: Serious hardcore investment in protecting their energy security and adapting to the changing climate.

But the standard of proof isn't high enough for a random libertarian pleeb



What would you expect them to do RJ? Of course they have to invest to adapt to the effects of climate change - they are a global organisation. As everyone acknowledges, climate has always changed. Whether or not they think humans are the main causes of that change, it remains unproven. Whether it's proven or not they still have to adapt to climate change. See the tiny dot on the horizon? Yep that's the point you missed..




Interesting, as neither do any of your army of straw men 


Nearly every post I see of yours you are either cut-and-pasting articles to jam up a thread, misunderstanding (really very) simple arguments, elaborately missing the point or introducing a straw man. It's a heady cocktail RJ -  I think Gordonchas put it best

You're a loon.


Now unless you have a single, useful, relevant point to add to the debate I suggest you go back to colouring in the walls with your crayons and pooping in your plastic bags to save fuel for the upcoming winter.  Merry Christmas ::)
« Last Edit: December 9, 2012, 12:38:14 pm by Carlos Qiqabal »
I know you struggle with reading comprehension Carlitos, but do try to pay attention

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Re: Climate change is here — and worse than we thought - Discuss
« Reply #388 on: December 9, 2012, 12:48:02 pm »
Also we're back to double standards here - whereas climate scientists have made their case very clearly, contrarians haven't. Why should one side have to do all the work and the other can make whatever unsubstantiated claims it wants and get away with it? The evidence is mounting all the time, why are contrarians not required to meet basic standards?

Because contrariarians arent the ones claiming they can predict the future and contrarians arent the ones asking the third world to cut back on growth.

I know you struggle with reading comprehension Carlitos, but do try to pay attention

Offline Bioluminescence

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Re: Climate change is here — and worse than we thought - Discuss
« Reply #389 on: December 9, 2012, 12:55:06 pm »
Because contrariarians arent the ones claiming they can predict the future and contrarians arent the ones asking the third world to cut back on growth.



Claiming that there'll be no problems or that the problems will be minimal is making a prediction. And no one is asking anyone to cut back on growth, we're asking that things be done differently by investing in R&D, the development of renewable energy, etc.

Offline Bioluminescence

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Re: Climate change is here — and worse than we thought - Discuss
« Reply #390 on: December 9, 2012, 01:15:51 pm »
that's the key question really isn't it?
regardless of the answer, I think we should certainly change our behaviour.
aside from the possibility of a dangerous increase in global warming, there are other ways in which we are damaging our environment all in the name of profit making.
anyone who thinks that's ok is a fool.

the other question is, just how dangerous is an increase in global warming and how much can be called 'dangerous'.
I wouldn't mind an increase of a degree or two in this part of the world, if it meant a milder winter and a warmer, dryer summer.

I'm no scientist, so I'm prepared to listen to the evidence, so long as it's not politically driven.

The question about dangerous climate change is an interesting because it shows the subjective nature of using the word dangerous or catastrophic. It's a spectrum and it boils down to opinions really. It's certainly something users need to define to make sure we're talking about the same thing.

The problem with temperature rises is that they have an impact on other climate parameters. For example, a recent report by the European Environment Agency has shown that while precipitation has increased in northern Europe, it has decreased in southern Europe. This has implications for freshwater management and food production, which require adaptation measures. Heat waves have also increased in frequency and strength, and again this requires that we adapt to these new conditions to limit the number of deaths that result from these events. For areas that rely on glacial melt for their freshwater needs, the retreat of glaciers poses a significant threat. And sea-level rise also poses a threat to many coastal areas. Now some areas will probably benefit from climate change, but it is these problems that make climate change an urgent issue.

It's difficult to know where to get reliable information. I'd avoid newspapers as much as possible. A good place to start would be the New Scientist and Scientific American as they do a good job of making it the science clear.

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Re: Climate change is here — and worse than we thought - Discuss
« Reply #391 on: December 9, 2012, 02:02:24 pm »
Claiming that there'll be no problems or that the problems will be minimal is making a prediction. And no one is asking anyone to cut back on growth, we're asking that things be done differently by investing in R&D, the development of renewable energy, etc.


Who is claiming "there will be no problems"? Your approach is "something must be done - here is something so let's do it" - in the process costing billions of dollars for unknown gain.

Secondly spending  money on research and development cuts back on money spent on growth - otherwise everyone would be doing it already. It's not much use to a developing economy if the money they would have spent on distributing petrol around the country gets spent on nuclear fusion experiments.

But here we are getting drawn into that circular argument again.

As Andy mentioned above - if you have the technology to predict the climate in 40 years I suggest you spend a few minutes of your time predicting what the futures derivates markets will be doing 40 days from now. You will be rich beyond your wildest dreams then you can buy your way into office and enact all the environmental legislation you want.  :)
I know you struggle with reading comprehension Carlitos, but do try to pay attention

Offline Bioluminescence

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Re: Climate change is here — and worse than we thought - Discuss
« Reply #392 on: December 9, 2012, 02:36:29 pm »

Who is claiming "there will be no problems"? Your approach is "something must be done - here is something so let's do it" - in the process costing billions of dollars for unknown gain.

Secondly spending  money on research and development cuts back on money spent on growth - otherwise everyone would be doing it already. It's not much use to a developing economy if the money they would have spent on distributing petrol around the country gets spent on nuclear fusion experiments.

But here we are getting drawn into that circular argument again.

As Andy mentioned above - if you have the technology to predict the climate in 40 years I suggest you spend a few minutes of your time predicting what the futures derivates markets will be doing 40 days from now. You will be rich beyond your wildest dreams then you can buy your way into office and enact all the environmental legislation you want.  :)

Where are your calculations showing that doing something would cost billions of dollars? Where are your calculations comparing your estimates with the estimated costs of climate change?

Spending on R&D doesn't cut back on growth - it provides knowledge that enable the development of new applications, produce new materials, products or services, install new processes and systems, and gain a competitive advantage. That's the reason businesses and governments invest in R&D.

Why would I want to make predictions about markets? It's completely irrelevant. You want to evaluate climate models? Then look at what they've already achieved. You're comparing physical sciences where we can observe, measure and quantify things with markets, which are erratic and unpredictable as they involve human behaviour.

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Re: Climate change is here — and worse than we thought - Discuss
« Reply #393 on: December 9, 2012, 02:53:06 pm »
Where are your calculations showing that doing something would cost billions of dollars? Where are your calculations comparing your estimates with the estimated costs of climate change?



Here is an example for you from just one country responding to one agreement (I presume you would like to see changes made in more than one country with multiple agreements):

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-16151310

Canada to withdraw from Kyoto Protocol

Canada will formally withdraw from the Kyoto Protocol on climate change, the minister of the environment has said.

Peter Kent said the protocol "does not represent a way forward for Canada" and the country would face crippling fines for failing to meet its targets.

The move, which is legal and was expected, makes it the first nation to pull out of the global treaty.

The protocol, initially adopted in Kyoto, Japan, in 1997, is aimed at fighting global warming.

"Kyoto, for Canada, is in the past, and as such we are invoking our legal right to withdraw from Kyoto," Mr Kent said in Toronto.

He said he would be formally advising the United Nations of his country's intention to pull out.

'Impediment'
He said meeting Canada's obligations under Kyoto would cost $13.6bn (10.3bn euros; £8.7bn): "That's $1,600 from every Canadian family - that's the Kyoto cost to Canadians, that was the legacy of an incompetent Liberal government".


 
Environment correspondent, BBC News
 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

That Canada would withdraw from the Kyoto Protocol has been the worst-kept recent secret in climate change politics.

On taking office in 2007, Stephen Harper's government found their predecessors, for all their green rhetoric, had done little to cut Canada's emissions.

Rather than heading for a 6% cut from 1990 levels by 2020, the Kyoto pledge, it was and still is set for a rise of about 16% - more like 30% if you include forestry. The obvious answer, to huge disdain from critics, was to say they wouldn't try meeting the target.

Since then, the approach has been to copy the US line. Canada's current pledge is exactly the same as the US one - a cut of 17% from 2005 levels by 2020 - with the proviso that the number will change if the US passes legislation with a different target.

And as the US is outside Kyoto, Canada's last act of mimicry was to leave as well.

A burning question at the recent UN talks in Durban was whether Japan, Russia, Australia or New Zealand would follow Canada's lead - which would effectively leave just European countries inside.

For the moment, it appears unlikely, as all like the flexibility Kyoto offers for meeting emission targets. But it's not impossible.
He said that despite this cost, greenhouse emissions would continue to rise as two of the world's largest polluters - the US and China - were not covered by the Kyoto agreement.

"We believe that a new agreement that will allow us to generate jobs and economic growth represents the way forward," he said.

Beijing criticised Canada's decision. Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Liu Weimin said it went "against the efforts of the international community and is regrettable".

Mr Kent's announcement came just hours after a last-minute deal on climate change was agreed in Durban.

Talks on a new legal deal covering all countries will begin next year and end by 2015, coming into effect by 2020, the UN climate conference decided.

"The Kyoto Protocol is a dated document, it is actually considered by many as an impediment to the move forward but there was good will demonstrated in Durban, the agreement that we ended up with provides the basis for an agreement by 2015."

He said that though the text of the Durban agreement "provides a loophole for China and India", it represents "the way forward".

Canada's previous Liberal government signed the accord but Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservative government never embraced it.

Canada declared four years ago that it did not intend to meet its existing Kyoto Protocol commitments and its annual emissions have risen by about a third since 1990.


Spending on R&D doesn't cut back on growth - it provides knowledge that enable the development of new applications, produce new materials, products or services, install new processes and systems, and gain a competitive advantage. That's the reason businesses and governments invest in R&D.

In general of course the future lies in R+D - but the money has to come from somewhere and usually its the same pot that funds a nation's growth. It's simply misleading to say the two aren't related. It's like saying we wil invest in the future by having an amazing training facility at melwood and spending money bringing in bright young prospects but expecting that the money spent on the first team transfer kitty will be untouched. There's a balance to be struck. A schoolchild could point that out to you.


Why would I want to make predictions about markets? It's completely irrelevant. You want to evaluate climate models? Then look at what they've already achieved. You're comparing physical sciences where we can observe, measure and quantify things with markets, which are erratic and unpredictable as they involve human behaviour.

 :lmao I thought your premise was that climate change was being driven by the effects of human behaviour - whoops! :lmao





« Last Edit: December 9, 2012, 03:06:55 pm by Carlos Qiqabal »
I know you struggle with reading comprehension Carlitos, but do try to pay attention

Offline MHLC

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Re: Climate change is here — and worse than we thought - Discuss
« Reply #394 on: December 9, 2012, 03:06:57 pm »
spending  money on research and development cuts back on money spent on growth - otherwise everyone   would be doing it already. It's not much use to a developing economy if the money they would have spent on distributing petrol around the country gets spent on nuclear fusion experiments.

You don't "spend money on growth". Growth is a variable outcome to a set of actions/activities. To suggest the cost of R&D inhibits economic growth is risible.

The R&D bio is referring to has been taking place for years in major economies such as the US, UK, Germany, Canada and Australia. Technology to mitigate anthropogenic climate change  exists and has been driven more by industry than governments of developing economies. It's a question of politics as to why technology such as CCS is not being used more widely.

We also should not ignore contributions to the problem from developing nations, such as deforestation in the Amazon and Atlantic Forest , or in China - a practice well understood to contribute to the greenhouse affect and put biodiversity at risk. One of Andy's numerous straw men is that the climate is always changing. This is true, as it is also true that extinction of species has been occurring for longer than man has walked the planet. Nobody has argued otherwise. Here's the thing:  neither of those arguments come remotely close to justifying the position of the denier.

Your argument that mitigation costs will be unfairly socialised onto poorer nations doesn't stack up with recent negotiations taking place in Doha. As well as financial aid commitments from developed nations, some of the smaller ones who face a risk of displacement are urging developed nations to do more and do it quickly:

Quote
Ronald Jumeau, negotiating for the Seychelles, scolded the US negotiator: "If we had had more ambition [on emissions cuts from rich countries], we would not have to ask for so much [money] for adaptation. If there had been more money for adaptation [to climate change], we would not be looking for money for loss and damage. What's next? Loss of our islands?"

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/dec/08/doha-climate-change-deal-nations

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Re: Climate change is here — and worse than we thought - Discuss
« Reply #395 on: December 9, 2012, 03:20:53 pm »
You don't "spend money on growth". Growth is a variable outcome to a set of actions/activities. To suggest the cost of R&D inhibits economic growth is risible.

No you're right - no need to cut back on developing communications, education, power supplies, roads, technology and so on.

Developing nations can now use the magic money tree to fund R+D to boost their economies.

No doubt with your thorough grasp of macroeconomics and politics you can elaborate on why governments around the world aren't spendng ten times their current budgets on R+D if it has no impact on their capacity for growth?

Or is this going to be another simple question you are going to dodge?



« Last Edit: December 9, 2012, 03:22:47 pm by Carlos Qiqabal »
I know you struggle with reading comprehension Carlitos, but do try to pay attention

Offline Bioluminescence

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Re: Climate change is here — and worse than we thought - Discuss
« Reply #396 on: December 9, 2012, 03:30:06 pm »


Here is an example for you:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-16151310

I didn't ask for a newspaper article, I asked for some calculations. There have been several reports looking at carbon pricing - at most this would GDP would increase by 1%.



A Google.org analysis found that delaying action could cost the US about $2.3 billion in GDP at least.



Economic analyses consistently show that mitigation is less costly than adaptation.



There's also a real-world example involving ten states in the US. They have implemented a carbon cap and trade system that aims to reduce their CO2 emissions from the power sector by 10% by 2018. A study has shown that by investing carbon funds in energy efficiency and renewable energy programs, the states achieved a $3-4 saving for every dollar invested. The program also created thousands of jobs and energy bills dropped. Another report found that the system added £1.6 billion in value to the economies of participating states.

I'm sure there's more but this is enough to make the point that taking action will not have a huge impact on economies.



In general of course the future lies in R+D - but the money has to come from somewhere and usually its the same pot that funds a nation's growth. It's simply misleading to say the two aren't related. It's like saying we wil invest in the future by having an amazing training facility at melwood and spending money bringing in bright young prospects but expecting that the money spent on the first team transfer kitty will be untouched. There's a balance to be struck. A schoolchild could point that out to you.

Yes, the money has to come from somewhere but it doesn't mean that R&D can play no role.

:lmao I thought your premise was that climate change was being driven by human behaviour - whoops! :lmao

Yes it is, but in a way that allows predictions to be made with a degree of certainty, not on decisions made by individuals which can be irrational and lead to completely unexpected outcomes. Which is why I made a point of highlighting the difference between physical science and economics.
« Last Edit: December 9, 2012, 03:33:43 pm by Bioluminescence »

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Re: Climate change is here — and worse than we thought - Discuss
« Reply #397 on: December 9, 2012, 03:46:51 pm »
Your arguments are quite weak Bio.

I didn't ask for a newspaper article, I asked for some calculations. There have been several reports looking at carbon pricing - at most this would GDP would increase by 1%.

I'm sure there's more but this is enough to make the point that taking action will not have a huge impact on economies.


The article shows you the effect of canadian economists making calculations - some of them with global reputations. No doubt you, sitting at home with Google apps, have discovered something they haven't - amazing the powers you have at your disposal  - you can predict the future and sort out nations' economies from the comfort of your sitting room - genuinely amazing. 


Yes, the money has to come from somewhere but it doesn't mean that R&D can play no role.


Again - mischaracterising arguments. That article clearly shows that canada has pulled out of Kyoto due to the deletrious effects projected for the country's growth. Canada still has a part of it's budget alocated for R+D - but asI said above there's a balance. Spending excessively in any one area affects growth. But when you're pulled up on it your argument now becomes "it doesn't mean that R+D can play no role." No-one ever claimed that. Weak.




Yes it is, but in a way that allows predictions to be made with a degree of certainty, not on decisions made by individuals which can be irrational and lead to completely unexpected outcomes. Which is why I made a point of highlighting the difference between physical science and economics.

All governments around the world base their projections on economic modelling because they all have a "degree of certainty". But apparently you can ignore this effect in looking at the consequences of human actions in modelling climate change. Amazing that you still refuse to acknowledge this massive gaping overpowering great hole in your argument.

OK then - I'll make it easy for you. Forget "irrational" human behaviour - forget 40 year glabal climate forecasting. Please tell me why we cant predict what the temperature will be (to the nearest tenth of a degree) at Anfield 40 days from now.
I know you struggle with reading comprehension Carlitos, but do try to pay attention

Offline Bioluminescence

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Re: Climate change is here — and worse than we thought - Discuss
« Reply #398 on: December 9, 2012, 04:03:20 pm »
Your arguments are quite weak Bio.

The article shows you the effect of canadian economists making calculations - some of them with global reputations. No doubt you, sitting at home with Google apps, have discovered something they haven't - amazing the powers you have at your disposal  - you can predict the future and sort out nations' economies from the comfort of your sitting room - genuinely amazing.

Why are my arguments weak? They're based on reports assessing the cost of taking action. If you care to point out their flaws, maybe we'll get somewhere.

Again - mischaracterising arguments. That article clearly shows that canada has pulled out of Kyoto due to the deletrious effects projected for the country's growth. Canada still has a part of it's budget alocated for R+D - but asI said above there's a balance. Spending excessively in any one area affects growth. But when you're pulled up on it your argument now becomes "it doesn't mean that R+D can play no role." No-one ever claimed that. Weak.

No, I had to clarify it because you are objecting to it. It can play a role, among the other measures put forward. That's all. I haven't made any grand claims - just that R&D can play a part in solving the problem. You don't actually seem to disagree.



All governments around the world base their projections on economic modelling because they all have a "degree of certainty". But apparently you can ignore this effect in looking at the consequences of human actions in modelling climate change. Amazing that you still refuse to acknowledge this massive gaping overpowering great hole in your argument.

OK then - I'll make it easy for you. Forget "irrational" human behaviour - forget 40 year glabal climate forecasting. Please tell me why we cant predict what the temperature will be (to the nearest tenth of a degree) at Anfield 40 days from now.

What overpowering great hole in my argument? You are bringing in market derivative or economic models as if they have any relevance to the validity of climate models. They don't. They are separate disciplines dealing with completely different things. I'm still waiting for you to justify bringing those models into the conversation. I'll say it again: if you want to assess climate models, look at what they have already achieved. Bringing in irrelevant models from different disciplines with their own uncertainties and limitations will tell you nothing about climate models. Only climate models can do that.

Guessing the temperature in a location on any given day is not what climate models do. It's as simple as that.

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Re: Climate change is here — and worse than we thought - Discuss
« Reply #399 on: December 9, 2012, 04:03:44 pm »
No you're right - no need to cut back on developing communications, education, power supplies, roads, technology and so on.

Sorry, I'm not following you here. What is your point? I already stated that the burden of mitigation is being taken up in developed nations. That's my answer to your question of should smaller/developing nations bear the brunt of adaption.

Quote
Developing nations can now use the magic money tree to fund R+D to boost their economies.

What?

Quote
No doubt with your thorough grasp of macroeconomics and politics you can elaborate on why governments around the world aren't spendng ten times their current budgets on R+D if it has no impact on their capacity for growth?

And we're back to being a smart arse again. I'm no more a politician, economist or climate scientist and have never implied so. Re: your question, can you provide me some more detail or illustrations on this. I dont fully understand what it is you asking me to elaborate on. Thanks.

This is the problem though - though clouding/denial of science by the use of political/economic arguments.Not saying they are not *valid* issues either, just that politics is more likely to confuse than clarify.

Are you a sceptic of the science or a denialist? Not trying to trick you here, just want to know where you are coming from? Personally I'm slightly sceptical of the long term projections of climate modelling.

Quote
Or is this going to be another simple question you are going to dodge?


Not sure I have dodged any of your questions? If I have, re-quote them and I'll answer. :wave