Author Topic: Results Comparison Thread 2023/4 (Read 20379 times)

JP-65 · « **Reply #40 on:** September 18, 2023, 09:22:25 am »

AFC time 0 equiv +3
CFC time +1 equiv -2

JP-65 · « **Reply #41 on:** September 21, 2023, 04:16:59 pm »

Upcoming weekend match, last season: Time D & Equiv W

JP-65 · « **Reply #42 on:** September 23, 2023, 09:59:30 pm »

Today’s fixtures:

City time +2 equiv 0
MUFC time 0 equiv 0

JP-65 · « **Reply #43 on:** September 24, 2023, 05:45:11 pm »

LFC time +2 equiv 0
AFC time +1 equiv -2
THFC time -2 equiv +1
CFC time -3 equiv 0
BHA time 0 equiv 0
NUFC time +2 equiv +2

JP-65 · « **Reply #44 on:** September 24, 2023, 05:45:46 pm »

I’ll update the charts when I get home later this week

JP-65 · « **Reply #45 on:** September 27, 2023, 12:47:31 pm »

Match 6 update:

JP-65 · « **Reply #46 on:** September 27, 2023, 12:48:38 pm »

The rest:

JP-65 · « **Reply #47 on:** September 28, 2023, 12:42:59 pm »

Match 7 last season, for LFC, was a DRAW

Spurs away last season was a WIN

JP-65 · « **Reply #48 on:** October 3, 2023, 02:35:18 pm »

My screenshot isn't working so I can't capture anything.

I'll post the update after I figure out how to get it working again

JP-65 · « **Reply #49 on:** October 3, 2023, 04:41:47 pm »

Still not working, but found a workaround:

JP-65 · « **Reply #50 on:** October 3, 2023, 04:45:19 pm »

The rest:

ItzdoctorZ · « **Reply #51 on:** October 3, 2023, 05:21:17 pm »

Annoying that Spurs and Arsenal are still undefeated.

JP-65 · « **Reply #52 on:** October 4, 2023, 05:01:22 pm »

Match 8 last season, for LFC, was a LOSS

Brighton away last season was a LOSS

Paul1611 · « **Reply #53 on:** October 9, 2023, 08:41:07 am »

A good run of winnable fixtures should hopefully put us in a good position for the Xmas fixtures

stonecold_jpm · « **Reply #54 on:** October 9, 2023, 11:37:05 am »

Aren’t Arsenal top now on equivalent fixtures??

JP-65 · « **Reply #55 on:** October 9, 2023, 01:27:14 pm »

Quote from: stonecold_jpm on October 9, 2023, 11:37:05 am

Aren’t Arsenal top now on equivalent fixtures??

Yup

JP-65 · « **Reply #56 on:** October 9, 2023, 01:29:04 pm »

Match 8 update:

JP-65 · « **Reply #57 on:** October 9, 2023, 01:30:03 pm »

The rest:

JP-65 · « **Reply #58 on:** October 9, 2023, 01:36:18 pm »

Relative Performance Index:

JP-65 · « **Reply #59 on:** October 10, 2023, 01:26:46 pm »

The RPI above reflects:

No matches against the 3 promoted teams, only Arsenal are same. Spurs have played all 3!

Only 1 match against the 3 that escaped relegation last season (Bournemouth, Forest & Everton). Arsenal have played all 3!

So we've played 1 of this 6, Spurs are 4 of 6, City are 3 of 6, Arsenal are 3 of 6, Chelsea are 4 of 6!

5 of our 8 matches have been against teams in the current Top 8, only missing Arsenal & City

groove · « **Reply #60 on:** October 10, 2023, 01:29:53 pm »

Good work in the relative ppg. Would love to see it on xG difference.

JP-65 · « **Reply #61 on:** October 10, 2023, 01:44:16 pm »

Quote from: groove on October 10, 2023, 01:29:53 pm

Good work in the relative ppg. Would love to see it on xG difference.

It's not my work, but thought it was worth posting.

My normal source for xG has gone missing this season, but I've come up with this

BassTunedToRed · « **Reply #62 on:** October 10, 2023, 08:05:48 pm »

I'll double check this tomorrow (and probably write an article on it this week!) but I think Liverpool's xG difference has improved by 5.9 on corresponding fixtures, the biggest growth in the PL. Bodes well, even if the points growth hasn't been huge.

JP-65 · « **Reply #63 on:** October 10, 2023, 08:16:38 pm »

Quote from: BassTunedToRed on October 10, 2023, 08:05:48 pm

I'll double check this tomorrow (and probably write an article on it this week!) but I think Liverpool's xG difference has improved by 5.9 on corresponding fixtures, the biggest growth in the PL. Bodes well, even if the points growth hasn't been huge.

Great Beez, we'd look better if we had a proper ref performance at Spurs!

BassTunedToRed · « **Reply #64 on:** October 11, 2023, 06:22:34 pm »

Here are the figures I mentioned, LFC are indeed top on expected goal difference gain (though this table is sorted by the third column).

Related article for Anfield Index will be out this week.

JP-65 · « **Reply #65 on:** October 11, 2023, 06:57:41 pm »

Thnx Beez

BassTunedToRed · « **Reply #66 on:** October 13, 2023, 10:01:51 am »

Quote from: BassTunedToRed on October 11, 2023, 06:22:34 pm

Here are the figures I mentioned, LFC are indeed top on expected goal difference gain (though this table is sorted by the third column).

Related article for Anfield Index will be out this week.

Full article if anyone is interested:

https://anfieldindex.com/59302/liverpool-are-well-placed-in-the-premier-league-grand-national.html

JP-65 · « **Reply #67 on:** October 16, 2023, 01:14:55 pm »

Match 9 last season, for LFC, was a WIN

Everton home last season was a WIN

stonecold_jpm · « **Reply #68 on:** October 22, 2023, 10:20:37 am »

Arsenal drop 2 points on equivalent fixtures. Looking increasingly like 90 points might not be hit again this season?

killer-heels · « **Reply #69 on:** October 22, 2023, 10:24:33 am »

Quote from: stonecold_jpm on October 22, 2023, 10:20:37 am

Arsenal drop 2 points on equivalent fixtures. Looking increasingly like 90 points might not be hit again this season?

The problem is we know that if they need to, City can make that total.

stonecold_jpm · « **Reply #70 on:** October 22, 2023, 10:50:27 am »

Quote from: killer-heels on October 22, 2023, 10:24:33 am

The problem is we know that if they need to, City can make that total.

Don’t think they will this season, already dropped points against teams they beat comfortably last season so there already going to have to take points off teams they dropped them to.

BassTunedToRed · « **Reply #71 on:** October 23, 2023, 03:38:38 pm »

Quote from: stonecold_jpm on October 22, 2023, 10:20:37 am

Arsenal drop 2 points on equivalent fixtures. Looking increasingly like 90 points might not be hit again this season?

On corresponding fixtures, nobody is topping 84 this season (see attached).

No gain for Liverpool points or GD wise this weekend but they did add another 0.2 on their league leading xG difference improvement.

JP-65 · « **Reply #72 on:** October 23, 2023, 04:04:50 pm »

Quote from: BassTunedToRed on October 23, 2023, 03:38:38 pm

On corresponding fixtures, nobody is topping 84 this season (see attached).

No gain for Liverpool points or GD wise this weekend but they did add another 0.2 on their league leading xG difference improvement.

Waiting for the Spurs result to post, but was going to say the same. Even on time basis, unless someone goes hot, it looks like 85-87 can win it.

JP-65 · « **Reply #73 on:** October 23, 2023, 10:10:54 pm »

Match 9 update:

JP-65 · « **Reply #74 on:** October 23, 2023, 10:11:59 pm »

The rest:

Brian Blessed · « **Reply #75 on:** October 23, 2023, 11:08:00 pm »

Thanks JP!

stonecold_jpm · « **Reply #76 on:** October 24, 2023, 11:06:29 am »

The 3 teams ahead of us have had the easiest starts by opponents ppg. That should level out in the next few weeks should we win our games as expected and we’ll then properly see where we are. We are definitely going to have to improve in the top 6 and top 8 tables though if we are to challenge.

DarkOfTheManatee · « **Reply #77 on:** October 24, 2023, 12:47:48 pm »

It does feel like the next month or so will be a defining period, with City playing Man Utd, Chelsea and Villa away (two games where they dropped points last season), and us and Spurs at home (both hopefully tougher games than last season).

And since they're almost one after the other, if they slip up against Man Utd again (admittedly unlikely, since the home fans will probably be rooting for a City win too, now that their own title hopes are already over and we're a threat again this season), the pressure will mount for the next game, and so on.

If City can be dealt a few blows by early December, then it could give us real belief as we go into the January transfer window and the second half of the season that this year we don't need to be near-perfect to win the title, and we can afford to have Howard Webb and his cronies screw us out of points a couple of times.

JP-65 · « **Reply #78 on:** October 24, 2023, 01:13:35 pm »

Cleaned up the Top 8 Summary as I hadn't resorted it

JP-65 · « **Reply #79 on:** October 24, 2023, 01:29:40 pm »

Saw this analysis on twitter by Phil Blundell, which had a few errors which I've corrected.

It shows how many matches the Top 10 teams have played against each other out of the 9 so far played, in some ways reflective of what the RPI shows:

LFC, Brighton & West Ham have had the toughest schedule so far (LFC with the most aways of this group)

Spurs & United, followed by City, Arsenal & Chelsea with the easiest schedule so far.

Spurs & Chelsea have played almost no one of note away from home so far.