Topic: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)

[JackWard33]

Michael Edwards says hello.

Yeah exactly
Which of his underlying metrics do you think he won’t rate?

[Agent99]

Yeah exactly
Which of his underlying metrics do you think he won’t rate?

Goals scored maybe?

[mullyred94]

Goals scored maybe?

As stated per 90 its .54

We're just going round and round and round and round in circles at this point.

I can't even be bothered from this point.

[istvan kozma]

Mark Twain wrote, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

[mullyred94]

Mark Twain wrote, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

Tell the person who runs the club that lol

It's literally what they use to sign players, as does many other clubs.

[KirkVanHouten]

Your arrogance is staggering.

Not sure it's arrogance as it's kind of true. If you judged Nunez purely by where he sits on metrics in Europe's top 5 leagues, he looks like an elite forward. You'd also see that the outlier is goals scored where he's in the top 19% of forwards, in most other measures he's in the top 1-5%.

The reason why he attracts so much criticism is because of how many chances he spurns. Part of that is that he creates an unusually high number of chances. A player who converts 10% of the chances he creates who creates 10 chances a game is a much more frustrating player than one who converts 100% of his chances but only ever gets one chance a game, even though they'd have the same amount of goals.

I can see why the frustration has boiled over, if he was just slightly less of a liability in front of goal we'd probably still be in a title race. But he was a big part of the effort that got us into the race in the first place, late winner at Bournemouth etc.

Just a shame he couldn't score a few more and send Klopp off with a trophy.

[istvan kozma]

Therefore no one that’s analytics based doesn’t rate him - that’s not my opinion or arrogance or anything else to do with me

https://twitter.com/simonbrundish/status/1786039902519382039?t=WqTFOXN3-

[Mr Dilkington]

19 goals and 12 assists vs 11 goals and 8 assists.

Just because we thumped European giants like Sparta Prague and LASK means fuck all in the grand scheme of things.

Over the last two seasons (Premier League only)

Watkins 0.49 goals per90
Núñez 0.49 goals per90

Oops.

[mullyred94]

https://twitter.com/simonbrundish/status/1786039902519382039?t=WqTFOXN3-tbLK_z7VefQpg

#LFC have accumulated 43xG in the Premier League this season when the game has been tied.

But they’ve only scored 33 goals, underperforming their xG by -10.

Turns out the LW has underperformed by 3 just 1.2 I believe behind Darwin (open play only)

Its only Nunez though that misses 

[JackWard33]

https://twitter.com/simonbrundish/status/1786039902519382039?t=WqTFOXN3-tbLK_z7VefQpg

Missing big chances at a certain rate isn’t replicable or predictive .. getting big chances is …  that’s a corner stone of xg
if you’re into analytics you’d look at his outlier level of missed chances and expect him to improve next season

[mullyred94]

Missing big chances at a certain rate isn’t replicable or predictive .. getting them is …  in fact if you’re into analytics you’d look at his outlier level of missed chances and expect him to improve next season

Mate if he clicked on the tweet instead of just looking at the graph posted it actually goes more in depth. -10 XG for the whole team despite Darwin missing '16 big chances' by the information on that graph.

The irony was the Mark Twain quote then proceeds to post that graph.

[JackWard33]

Mate if he clicked on the tweet instead of just looking at the graph posted it actually goes more in depth. -10 XG for the whole team despite Darwin missing '16 big chances' by the information on that graph.

The irony was the Mark Twain quote then proceeds to post that graph.

Yeah..
As a fan missing big chances is totally pre occupying as it can games and trophies
But as an analyst it’s just a description of what’s happened not a description of performance level and they’d take the complete opposite next step

A fan looks at it the season and says ‘change the forwards’
An analyst would look at our season and say ‘elite attack… fucking horrible finishing variance .. they should keep the attack,  and find ways to improve at the back’

[Cpt_Reina]

Over the last two seasons (Premier League only)

Watkins 0.49 goals per90
Núñez 0.49 goals per90

Oops.

This includes the 1/3rd of a season Villa played under Gerrard in 22/23 where they were so bad and so poorly coached it led to him getting the sack?

Incredible endorsement of Watkins' ability that he's managed to keep up with a Klopp coached Liverpool no9 supplied by generational talents like Mo Salah and Trent really. Very impressive.

[istvan kozma]

Missing big chances at a certain rate isn’t replicable or predictive .. getting big chances is …  that’s a corner stone of xg
if you’re into analytics you’d look at his outlier level of missed chances and expect him to improve next season

Why is he going to improve? the outlier is his last season at Benfica. Unless he scores 4 plus goals in the last 3 games, Nunez would've failed to score 15 league goals in 3 out of 4 seasons.

[mullyred94]

This includes the 1/3rd of a season Villa played under Gerrard in 22/23 where they were so bad and so poorly coached it led to him getting the sack?

Incredible endorsement of Watkins' ability that he's managed to keep up with a Klopp coached Liverpool no9 supplied by generational talents like Mo Salah and Trent really. Very impressive.

I have a Villa friend who thinks Watkins has massively overachieved and Darwin is a superior player by his eye test.

Funny how some Liverpool fans have the opposite view.

Why is he going to improve? the outlier is his last season at Benfica. Unless he scores 4 plus goals in the last 3 games, Nunez would've failed to score 15 league goals in 3 out of 4 seasons.

If you take the G/A view then his contributed at least 15 goals in 3/4 seasons.

Depends what you view, 20 goals and 0 assists vs 10/10.

They both equal Liverpool scoring 20 goals thats how I view it.

[rob1966]

This includes the 1/3rd of a season Villa played under Gerrard in 22/23 where they were so bad and so poorly coached it led to him getting the sack?

Incredible endorsement of Watkins' ability that he's managed to keep up with a Klopp coached Liverpool no9 supplied by generational talents like Mo Salah and Trent really. Very impressive.

The same season we struggled to get 5th, drew 10 and lost 9 and finished on 67 pts, 6 above Villa

[JackWard33]

Why is he going to improve? the outlier is his last season at Benfica. Unless he scores 4 plus goals in the last 3 games, Nunez would've failed to score 15 league goals in 3 out of 4 seasons.

There’s so much explanation in this thread as to why his finishing will probably improve (and if it doesn’t why he’s still good) for you to read and come to a view

[Cpt_Reina]

Isak with another goal

[Mr Dilkington]

This includes the 1/3rd of a season Villa played under Gerrard in 22/23 where they were so bad and so poorly coached it led to him getting the sack?

Incredible endorsement of Watkins' ability that he's managed to keep up with a Klopp coached Liverpool no9 supplied by generational talents like Mo Salah and Trent really. Very impressive.

Yes, 11 of the 72 games I'm talking about were under Gerrard - you got me there.

We were of course high flying around that time. Rolling out Milner, Elliott, Henderson midfields.

[Cpt_Reina]

Yes, 11 of the 72 games I'm talking about were under Gerrard - you got me there.

We were of course high flying around that time. Rolling out Milner, Elliott, Henderson midfields.

I suppose you're right. Scoring a goal for Villa and scoring a goal for Liverpool carry the exact same degree of difficulty.

[Mr Dilkington]

I suppose you're right. Scoring a goal for Villa and scoring a goal for Liverpool carry the exact same degree of difficulty.

This is just getting sad.

Your Darwin hate started as a laugh, evolved to being a meme and now it has fully broken your brain.

[istvan kozma]

Mate if he clicked on the tweet instead of just looking at the graph posted it actually goes more in depth. -10 XG for the whole team despite Darwin missing '16 big chances' by the information on that graph.

The irony was the Mark Twain quote then proceeds to post that graph.

There’s so much explanation in this thread as to why his finishing will probably improve (and if it doesn’t why he’s still good) for you to read and come to a view

Well here's another explanation why it might not, & 'goes into great depth'....

Just read this thread on Nunez from 2 years ago before we signed him. It’s absolutely spot on in pointing out his flaws and where he’d struggle. Just find it a bit weird some random fella on twitter seen this coming but we didn’t. I know Twitter is full of these ‘tactico’ melts but this guy is precise and accurate in his assessment and we’ve all seen it come to fruition.

https://twitter.com/taistofcb/status/1514983927059996681?s=46

For those that don't have an X account. I’ll pick out a few things I found interesting but it’s all spot on.

- As seen against Liverpool with his 2 disallowed goals, he has an extremely frustrating, Inzaghi-esque tendency to get caught offside basically every game [1.0 Offsides p90].

Since moving to Benfica last season, no player has been caught offside in the league more times than him

This demonstrates that, despite his game revolving around constantly making runs in behind, he doesn’t always time them that well.

And it’s questionable if he’d even have that many opportunities to run in behind in a possession-based top team, playing mostly against deep blocks

- Another major concern is just how limited he is technically, which is probably a result of him always being able to rely on his pace & strength.
His touch often lets him down [3.4 Unsucc. Touches p90].
He under hits passes & at times doesn’t get a clean connection when shooting

- Along with his technique, his decision making, in particular in the final 3rd, can be quite hasty & generally suspect.
At times releasing the ball at the wrong time after decelerating.

Despite what his assist numbers might suggest, he isn’t a huge creator
x.com/goncalovmmll/s…

- Despite being 1.87m tall & strong, he doesn’t use his body that well & his hold-up play is inconsistent.

Whilst he scored a few uncontested headers, his heading technique isn’t perfect & his timing isn’t great.

He also only wins 1.1 Aerials p90 & has an Aerial Win Rate of 36.7%

- A lot of those things point to the fact that he isn’t really a lone striker.

As shown by his heatmap, he loves to drift out wide & operate in the left channel.

Which is, why more often than not, he has been playing as part of a strike partnership or in off the left at Benfica

This is all from 2022. As I've said previously I really hopes he goes on to prove we wrong but that thread is damning. All those weaknesses in his game back then, are still there today.

....If someone shows their flaws prior to coming to LFC and continue with those flaws, once they're here.
 I'll believe that's what they are until proven otherwise, after 4 years of evidence.

[Cpt_Reina]

This is just getting sad.

Your Darwin hate started as a laugh, evolved to being a meme and now it has fully broken your brain.

So they are the exact same difficulty? Or not?

[Lynndenberries]

Perhaps his value as a player is somewhere in between the analytics and eye test? Just maybe.

[DelTrotter]

Isak with another goal

Imagine roaring on a sportswashing team in a nothing game just to have a dig at a Liverpool player

[killer-heels]

Perhaps his value as a player is somewhere in between the analytics and eye test? Just maybe.

Seems like that judgement isnt allowed. People go on about how he has not improved, when its quite obvious to the eye test that he has. Some of his passing and assists have shown fantastic build up ability.

At the same time, people saying his stats show we should build a team around him is fucking nuts as well. Here we are (or were) in a run in and for the second season straight, he has been relegated to the bench. That says something.

[Lynndenberries]

Seems like that judgement isnt allowed. People go on about how he has not improved, when its quite obvious to the eye test that he has. Some of his passing and assists have shown fantastic build up ability.

At the same time, people saying his stats show we should build a team around him is fucking nuts as well. Here we are (or were) in a run in and for the second season straight, he has been relegated to the bench. That says something.

Exactly. I have a degree in statistics and rely on stats more than I should at times, especially when judging transfers targets (Keita remains on enigma), but after watching Nunez for two years it’s pretty clear he’s somewhere in between. He has moments of pure brilliance and gives some of the best defenders in the league a torrid time on a regular basis, and yet he can often snatch at chances in crucial moments, seemingly more often than other strikers mentioned in this thread.

I’m very split on him as a player. I see shades of Cavani and Torres, but I’m still waiting for him to put it altogether. The talent is there which is probably the most frustrating part for me.

[Eeyore]

The same season we struggled to get 5th, drew 10 and lost 9 and finished on 67 pts, 6 above Villa

Well said Rob.

[Mr Dilkington]

So they are the exact same difficulty? Or not?

Gonna leave it here.

[Cpt_Reina]

So they are the exact same difficulty? Or not?

I guess I'll reply to myself.

Of course they're not the same. It's easier to score a league goal in the last 2 seasons for Liverpool than it is for Villa, we're a vastly superior team, with vastly superior players, coached by a vastly superior manager (sorry Emery, sorry not sorry Stevie).

But of course the numbers you post don't take that in to consideration do they? Because they can't. Every goal is created equal in their eyes, there's no weighting applied at all.

But for the sake of arguement you believe that yeah, it's just as easy/difficult for Watkins to score his goals as it is for Darwin to score his. There's no difference between turning out for villa in this period of time to turning out for Liverpool.

Where do you draw the line in that case? Is it just as easy to score a goal for West Ham? Is it flat in terms of difficulty to score for wolves? Is it the case for any player who hits 0.49 goals per 90 has done so under the exact same conditions making their respective performances in doing so the exact same level of impressive?

Watkins' gp90 are more impressive than Darwin's because they've come under significantly more difficult circumstances. Simply saying they've the same 0.49 goals per 90 therefore it's the same level of performance is omitting that.

[mullyred94]

Perhaps his value as a player is somewhere in between the analytics and eye test? Just maybe.

I honestly think most of us are arguing that to be honest, at least I am.

I am not gonna pretend his an elite finisher or whatever but eye test we are better with him and stats back this up.

In all honestly the fact people call him a donkey is probably why so many of us defend him.

Imagine a donkey getting a goal or assist every second game.

What does a good player look like then?

[mullyred94]

I guess I'll reply to myself.

Of course they're not the same. It's easier to score a league goal in the last 2 seasons for Liverpool than it is for Villa, we're a vastly superior team, with vastly superior players, coached by a vastly superior manager (sorry Emery, sorry not sorry Stevie).

But of course the numbers you post don't take that in to consideration do they? Because they can't. Every goal is created equal in their eyes, there's no weighting applied at all.

But for the sake of arguement you believe that yeah, it's just as easy/difficult for Watkins to score his goals as it is for Darwin to score his. There's no difference between turning out for villa in this period of time to turning out for Liverpool.

Where do you draw the line in that case? Is it just as easy to score a goal for West Ham? Is it flat in terms of difficulty to score for wolves? Is it the case for any player who hits 0.49 goals per 90 has done so under the exact same conditions making their respective performances in doing so the exact same level of impressive?

Watkins' gp90 are more impressive than Darwin's because they've come under significantly more difficult circumstances. Simply saying they've the same 0.49 goals per 90 therefore it's the same level of performance is omitting that.

Have they though? Villa have over achieved depending how an individual wants to look at it you can draw your own conclusions to fit your agenda.

I would argue there’s more pressure on a Liverpool player to win in this one, the fairytale send off for Klopp and all that vs a team that has overachieved and had one of the best seasons in what 15 years ?

Not saying the way I view it is right but surely you can see my point in pressure.

We’ve set high standards under Klopp when we have gone close especially.

[Eeyore]

I guess I'll reply to myself.

Of course they're not the same. It's easier to score a league goal in the last 2 seasons for Liverpool than it is for Villa, we're a vastly superior team, with vastly superior players, coached by a vastly superior manager (sorry Emery, sorry not sorry Stevie).

But of course the numbers you post don't take that in to consideration do they? Because they can't. Every goal is created equal in their eyes, there's no weighting applied at all.

But for the sake of arguement you believe that yeah, it's just as easy/difficult for Watkins to score his goals as it is for Darwin to score his. There's no difference between turning out for villa in this period of time to turning out for Liverpool.

Where do you draw the line in that case? Is it just as easy to score a goal for West Ham? Is it flat in terms of difficulty to score for wolves? Is it the case for any player who hits 0.49 goals per 90 has done so under the exact same conditions making their respective performances in doing so the exact same level of impressive?

Watkins' gp90 are more impressive than Darwin's because they've come under significantly more difficult circumstances. Simply saying they've the same 0.49 goals per 90 therefore it's the same level of performance is omitting that.

Only if you completely ignore the fact that it is much much harder to get a consistent run in the Liverpool team.

You keep bringing up Watkins and Isak. The brutal truth is that they quite simply wouldn't get starts here.

[istvan kozma]

Only if you completely ignore the fact that it is much much harder to get a consistent run in the Liverpool team.

You keep bringing up Watkins and Isak. The brutal truth is that they quite simply wouldn't get starts here.

Going on this season, clueless nonsense.

[Cpt_Reina]

Only if you completely ignore the fact that it is much much harder to get a consistent run in the Liverpool team.

You keep bringing up Watkins and Isak. The brutal truth is that they quite simply wouldn't get starts here.

Gibberish.

These are the logic leaps people will make when the validity of stats are called in to question.

Why is it harder to get in Liverpools team consistently....? Hmmmm? Is it because we have much better players available all the way through the squad perhaps? Not that it particularly matters when discussing goals per 90 mins.

File this one alongside 'coaching has a marginal impact on player output'.

[Pistolero]

You keep bringing up Watkins and Isak. The brutal truth is that they quite simply wouldn't get starts here.

I mean Al...we've all had a drink but...😁

[Eeyore]

Gibberish.

Strikers finishing is affected by confidence. Getting a run in a team builds their confidence and that makes taking chances easier, which build their confidence. It is a virtuous circle.

For me, all our forwards have had stop-start seasons. Either through lack of minutes, injury, or having a member of their family kidnapped. That leads to a vicious circle. Players are desperate to score to keep their place and they end up snatching at chances. That dents their confidence which leads to more misses.

[mullyred94]

Watkins is much more suited to how we play than Isak to be fair.

Don't know how Isak fits into a Klopp team at all..

[Eeyore]

I mean Al...we've all had a drink but...😁

If we had signed Isak or Watkins when we signed Nunez they would have been competing with Salah, Jota, Firmino and Diaz. Quickly followed by Gakpo in the January.

Nunez came off a season in which he scored 34 in 41 games. He still started on the bench. In 21-22 Watkins scored 11 goals in all comps. Isak scored 10 goals in all comps. They simply wouldn't have got a run in the team.

Capt Reina Hindsight is now comparing Watkins and Isak AFTER they have had a run in the team.

[CHOPPER]

When the new guy comes in, Nunez, like everyone else will have to demonstrate his worth to the new manager and how he will, or won’t, fit into the new guys plans for the future. No brownie points, no favouritism, no loyalty it’s a clean sheet for everyone.

In my opinion, next season whether Klopp was still here or not, will be either the making or the breaking of his Liverpool career.