Topic: Brexit - doesn't really seem to be a very good idea does it? (*)

[Andy @ Allerton!]

Unreal. Not sure if stupidity or evil is the true winner here

[thejbs]

Apart from your last line, I can't disagree with any of your post mate.  I guess anything we think is subjective, there is no hard evidence either way.  However from a Unionist background, I feel there has been a big sea change in the last 20 years... more so recently. It appears to me that previous moderate unionists are now quite content with the idea of unification in a way I didn't think would happen in my lifetime. I'm sure Brexit has accelerated this recently.  I disagree with your last line because while there are some far right ultra DUP types, the troublemakers on that side were never as motivated by politics as their Republican rivals. More that the ''loyalist?'' freedom fighters wanted to terrorise and make money by thuggery.  In fact I bet the UDA would take a United Ireland every day if it got them more drugs money in Limerick... so I don't buy that.


The interesting thing is the Irish attitude to the North. Why I'd like to hear the views of posters I've mentioned.

I get the sense there is now an all island desire for unity which has never existed before, north and south.  I wonder if that is indeed the attitude of citizens in the ROI?  It definitely is a growing attitude up in the North, and I'm talking ordinary previously 'British' citizens.

If Scotland goes.... we will follow and not too long after.

I think it would be violent for two reasons. First, did you see how hard-line unionists lost their shit over the designated days thing. That was pretty innocuous but resulted in a lot of violent clashes and property damage. Secondly, loyalist terrorists never really had a cause in the past. They were merely reactionary to the republicans who themselves had a political objective. During the troubles the union was never under threat. Reunification changes that. Suddenly hardline loyalists have a cause to fight for - violence could be seen as the only way they can save their ties to the union.

[Trev20]

Very good article about Scottish independence and the economic problems the country is already facing:

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21717038-decision-leave-eu-appears-strengthen-case-scottish-independence-fact

http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21717089-cheap-oil-and-loss-jobs-finance-have-brought-economic-growth-almost

[Wabaloolah]

The SNP are adamant they should have the referendum while we are still in the EU. they will stand their ground on this, they want to remain in the EU, not leave with the UK and then have to rejoin.
It's a massive point, they have control of the situation if they are still members after the vote.
If they leave then they have to rely on EU members voting them back in then it could take years to rejoin.
I imagine the campaign for independence will be very different this time as remaining members of the EU is the issue as well, it will be a big embarrassment for the leave campaign MPs. it will be a nice to see the leave campaign try and get away with the same lies to leave up in Scotland.

Scotland are not currently members of the EU, the UK is. If the UK leaves then so does Scotland. If Scotland goes independent prior to EU withdrawal, even assuming the separation could be worked out in time, Scotland would not be in the EU either way and would have to reapply for membership, presumably at the back of the queue with other potential members. It's not simply a case of Scotland goes independent so they stay in the EU as they are not members in their own right

[Wabaloolah]

Then there will be referenda (?) in London and Edinburgh. It never ends, an endless chain driven by nationalistic and regionalistic hubris.

May is apparently going to block a new vote prior to completion of EU withdrawal negotiations

[west_london_red]

Very good article about Scottish independence and the economic problems the country is already facing:

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21717038-decision-leave-eu-appears-strengthen-case-scottish-independence-fact

http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21717089-cheap-oil-and-loss-jobs-finance-have-brought-economic-growth-almost

Assuming that there is a referendum, if this is the argument for Scotland to stay in the UK you will inevitably get more and people in England in particular asking why do we want Scotland in the UK, it's costing us a fortune, and all they do is threaten to leave every few years.

EDIT - A slogan of "we send the Scots Ł300 million a week, lets take back control" emblazoned on the side of a bus

[filopastry]

May is apparently going to block a new vote prior to completion of EU withdrawal negotiations

Can she actually do that, though?

I would have thought the Scottish Parliament could have the vote whenever they want, Westminster could choose to ignore the result of it, but I'm not sure they could actually do anything to stop the Scottish Parliament calling a referendum whenever it wanted to.

[Libertine]

https://t.co/2dWT726NXk

[classycarra]

Can she actually do that, though?

I would have thought the Scottish Parliament could have the vote whenever they want, Westminster could choose to ignore the result of it, but I'm not sure they could actually do anything to stop the Scottish Parliament calling a referendum whenever it wanted to.

Wouldn't be too surprised if it went the Spanish way. Catalonia organising an advisory referendum, without permission, and the result being noted but rejected.

[oldfordie]

Scotland are not currently members of the EU, the UK is. If the UK leaves then so does Scotland. If Scotland goes independent prior to EU withdrawal, even assuming the separation could be worked out in time, Scotland would not be in the EU either way and would have to reapply for membership, presumably at the back of the queue with other potential members. It's not simply a case of Scotland goes independent so they stay in the EU as they are not members in their own right

Where have you got this from, is this your opinion?
The SNP would not have made the statements they did yesterday if this was true. am sure this will become clearer over the next few months, you may well be right but we shall see.

[Johnny B. Goode]

Where have you got this from, is this your opinion?
The SNP would not have made the statements they did yesterday if this was true. am sure this will become clearer over the next few months, you may well be right but we shall see.

Well Scotland isn't a sovereign state, it has no EU membership on their own.

They do have the advantage of already meeting the criteria set by the EU to join the union, so with a bit of political willpower they could join fairly quickly. There is no reason why they'd be in the back of the queue. Also worth mentioning that leaving the UK would take a while.

EDIT: Forgot to say that Scotland will obviously not get a rehash of the British deal, since it was almost a tailor-made special agreement. The sight of an independent Scotland in the EU seems to lie in a fairly distant future.

[Inpeace]

We have a decades old policy in Gibraltar & Falkland's of self determination - this is a cornerstone of our position here and has given us a moral high ground.  I cannot see how refusing another referendum in Scotland that is clearly in the parties manifesto is consistent with this.

As we know from Hunt & the NHS a manifesto pledge is concrete.

[SP]

Where have you got this from, is this your opinion?
The SNP would not have made the statements they did yesterday if this was true. am sure this will become clearer over the next few months, you may well be right but we shall see.

Your faith in the truthfulness of politicians is touching.

It is unlikely to become clearer as any reason will be buried in a tsunami of bullshit.

[oldfordie]

Your faith in the truthfulness of politicians is touching.

It is unlikely to become clearer as any reason will be buried in a tsunami of bullshit.

It's not a matter of faith or trust in the SNP. the question is do Scotland have the right to remain in the EU when the rest of the UK leave. am not saying they have the right to do this, this is up to the lawyers to decide. people are stating Scotland have no right to remain in the EU after we leave when we dont know if this is true yet. it may well be and am sure it will be tested over the next year.

[Banquo's Ghost]

Look, I really feel very sad for those of you who are going to have to live through the brutal reality of Brexit and the ensuing 30 years of Tory rule.

But for those of us who are fleeing the country, can someone please stop the mad people in government from tanking the pound quite so comprehensively, otherwise my sterling assets are going to be worth less than a small packet of tea by the time I get them transferred to a sensible administration.

 

[Elmo!]

The only thing we can say about Scotland's situation regarding EU membership is that no one knows for sure. Anyone who claims to know exactly what will happen is being at best disingenuous.

The EU will not give a definitive answer without a request from Westminster (which will not happen), as they can't be seen to interfere in a member countries internal affairs.

There are comments from senior figures in the EU saying Scotlands membership will be fast tracked. There are also senior figures saying Scotland will have to reapply.

The reality is that history shows that the EU has historically been willing to bend a break the rules to pragmatically accommodate particular circumstances. What I think could happen is that once/if the independence referendum is won, politics will be put to the side and pragmatism will take over. Some sort of transitional agreement could be reached to avoid the pointless situation of Scotland leaving the EU just to reapply and join again shortly after.

However I think the independence campaign has to assume that it is possible Scotland will have to reapply and be prepared for it.

[Zeb]

"We took an 8% paycut to have a Brexit" sadly won't be appearing on a bus. (CEP estimates of 6.3% to 9.5% permanent loss to per capita GDP). I don't think anyone can assume that Scotland's 'subsidy' will be maintained at current levels post-Brexit regardless of another referendum. It's a gamble on how shite things will be under the Tories for the generation after Brexit goes through but it's very probably one worth taking on the evidence available right now. Own currency (don't fuck around on that like last time). Within the EU. It may not be roses and unicorns, but it's at least got a gnat's fart's chance of being what the entire UK once said it offered to investors and immigrants.

[sms1986]

When they had the last referendum on independence, I was mostly on the fence although I wanted there to be a large turn out and a decisive result. I did have a curiosity about what it would be like if the Scottish had voted to leave (same as I did for the EU referendum, although I was and am 100% Remain on that issue).

I've only very distant Scottish ancestry, whilst my closest Irish ancestor was a great great grandmother who wasn't even born in Ireland, but Dover, so neither of those are of use to me when it comes to citizenship. Maybe one/both of my unknown great great grandfathers was Irish/Scottish, would at least bump up the percentages (right now I'm at about 14/15% Irish and maybe 1% Scottish).

My brother, however, lives in Germany with his Spanish girlfriend, and they're expecting a baby in the summer. I'm not sure what citizenship she would get but she'll have at least EU citizenship.

[mkingdon]

One of the biggest issues with Brexit (and there are of course numerous) and a potential break up of the Union is that it's just a huge fecking distraction from what governments should be doing.

All of this is keeping the crumbling NHS out of the media, or at least reducing the coverage and for the next two years the attention of the government will be almost solely focussed on Brexit.

Add Scotland trying to dis-entangle itself from us and by the time all this shit has settled down we won't have much else left to worry about as it will have all turned to shit.

For the Tories they have two years now to bury bad news. They'll be implementing policies that would never be tolerated in a "normal" world but with the Brexit Mafia Media frothing at the mouth to "stick it up" Johnny Foreigner in the EU, all of that shit will just slip under the radar.

Once all this is over we'll have "taken back control" but there won't be much to control.

[west_london_red]

The only thing we can say about Scotland's situation regarding EU membership is that no one knows for sure. Anyone who claims to know exactly what will happen is being at best disingenuous.

The EU will not give a definitive answer without a request from Westminster (which will not happen), as they can't be seen to interfere in a member countries internal affairs.

There are comments from senior figures in the EU saying Scotlands membership will be fast tracked. There are also senior figures saying Scotland will have to reapply.

The reality is that history shows that the EU has historically been willing to bend a break the rules to pragmatically accommodate particular circumstances. What I think could happen is that once/if the independence referendum is won, politics will be put to the side and pragmatism will take over. Some sort of transitional agreement could be reached to avoid the pointless situation of Scotland leaving the EU just to reapply and join again shortly after.

However I think the independence campaign has to assume that it is possible Scotland will have to reapply and be prepared for it.

A certain Tory ex-PM probably disagrees with that bit.

[oldfordie]

One of the biggest issues with Brexit (and there are of course numerous) and a potential break up of the Union is that it's just a huge fecking distraction from what governments should be doing.

All of this is keeping the crumbling NHS out of the media, or at least reducing the coverage and for the next two years the attention of the government will be almost solely focussed on Brexit.

Add Scotland trying to dis-entangle itself from us and by the time all this shit has settled down we won't have much else left to worry about as it will have all turned to shit.

For the Tories they have two years now to bury bad news. They'll be implementing policies that would never be tolerated in a "normal" world but with the Brexit Mafia Media frothing at the mouth to "stick it up" Johnny Foreigner in the EU, all of that shit will just slip under the radar.

Once all this is over we'll have "taken back control" but there won't be much to control.

This is going to go on for a lot longer than 2 yrs. the worry is will the leave supporters still be telling us to be positive in 3-5 yrs time when the evidence shows we made the wrong decision.
The Torys wont admit their wrong, neither will the leave supporters, all sorts of excuses will be given  to justify staying out of the EU and the idiots will believe them again.

[Elmo!]

Christian Fraser‏Verified account
@ChristianFraser

The PM is considering setting the condition that the SNP must win an outright majority in Holyrood elections in 2021, says the Times

This is just ridiculous. Firstly because the Scottish Parliament was specifically set up to make it almost impossible to win a majority, the fact the SNP managed it in 2011 was a mathematical fluke. Secondly the Tories may have had a majority in terms of seats but had a much lower proportion of the vote than the SNP when they called the EU referendum. Finally the SNP are not the only pro indy party - between them and the Greens they have a majority of seats already and more than 50% of the vote.

[filopastry]

This is just ridiculous. Firstly because the Scottish Parliament was specifically set up to make it almost impossible to win a majority, the fact the SNP managed it in 2011 was a mathematical fluke. Secondly the Tories may have had a majority in terms of seats but had a much lower proportion of the vote than the SNP when they called the EU referendum. Finally the SNP are not the only pro indy party - between them and the Greens they have a majority of seats already and more than 50% of the vote.

Its a fucking nonsense, there's a majority in the Scottish parliament to call a referendum and that should be the end of it.

Theresa May's arrogance seems to grow bigger every day

[Elmo!]

Its a fucking nonsense, there's a majority in the Scottish parliament to call a referendum and that should be the end of it.

Theresa May's arrogance seems to grow bigger every day

I read a (joke) suggestion that the SNP should, now that the power for it has been devolved, temporarily change the Scottish electoral system to FPTP to get the majority. 

[west_london_red]

This is just ridiculous. Firstly because the Scottish Parliament was specifically set up to make it almost impossible to win a majority, the fact the SNP managed it in 2011 was a mathematical fluke. Secondly the Tories may have had a majority in terms of seats but had a much lower proportion of the vote than the SNP when they called the EU referendum. Finally the SNP are not the only pro indy party - between them and the Greens they have a majority of seats already and more than 50% of the vote.

Agree, the placing of arbitrary conditions on the holding of a referendum isn't right, it makes a mockery of democracy. But at the same time I would say the same thing about allowing 16 year old to vote in the referendum last time. We have electoral rules in place and they should be respected, not changed each time to suit someone's agenda. If May doesn't want a referendum then she should just say so, not place artificial barriers in the way.

[ShrewKop]

Look, I really feel very sad for those of you who are going to have to live through the brutal reality of Brexit and the ensuing 30 years of Tory rule.

But for those of us who are fleeing the country, can someone please stop the mad people in government from tanking the pound quite so comprehensively, otherwise my sterling assets are going to be worth less than a small packet of tea by the time I get them transferred to a sensible administration.

 

Mate, I'm with you 100% on that one. I've just moved to be with my wife in America and the GBP/USD has been crushing to watch. I was laughing when the Gibraltar vote came in and it rose to $1.50/1 and then the rest of Brexit happened. I transferred my life savings the other week at $1.25/1 as with Article 50 being triggered and Scotland requesting a new referendum, everything is pointing to the pound getting even weaker.

I hope you're able to salvage some money and at least have enough to buy an entire box of tea. Good luck 

[Elmo!]

Agree, the placing of arbitrary conditions on the holding of a referendum isn't right, it makes a mockery of democracy. But at the same time I would say the same thing about allowing 16 year old to vote in the referendum last time. We have electoral rules in place and they should be respected, not changed each time to suit someone's agenda. If May doesn't want a referendum then she should just say so, not place artificial barriers in the way.

The SNP have supported votes for 16 year olds in all elections for years and have now passed a bill with cross party support to allow 16 year olds to vote in Scottish Parliament and council elections.

[Redman0151]

hmm....

[Zeb]

hmm....

You can set your twitter location to wherever you wish.

[killer-heels]

hmm....

If true then hardly surprising. But its not Russia that should be influencing your decision.

[Elmo!]

You can set your twitter location to wherever you wish.

Loads of people use VPNs nowadays anyway. I get detected as being in the Netherlands since i started using one.

[Redman0151]

You can set your twitter location to wherever you wish.

They can indeed, but given Russia's recent history of using the internet to spread propaganda and cause distrust towards the media, it is hardly surprising

[Libertine]

Good article in the FT by @Law_and_policy (well worth a follow for constitutional law issues)





https://www.ft.com/content/eef5f5a9-825a-3c5f-9337-1cbcd3b02f51

[Wabaloolah]

Can she actually do that, though?

I would have thought the Scottish Parliament could have the vote whenever they want, Westminster could choose to ignore the result of it, but I'm not sure they could actually do anything to stop the Scottish Parliament calling a referendum whenever it wanted to.

not sure, constitutionally I suspect she can, ethically definitely not!

[Zeb]

They can indeed, but given Russia's recent history of using the internet to spread propaganda and cause distrust towards the media, it is hardly surprising

Theresa May as Rosa Klebb is a fun idea. But if a tweet was tagged as from Virginia, USA would it be the CIA involved? London for MI5/SIS? North Pole for Santa? Just highlighting it needs a tad more than that. Actually, a fair bit more.

[Wabaloolah]

https://t.co/2dWT726NXk

that's a very good point and shows the ridiculousness of the whole situation. Something that could and should have been avoided if not for Cameron's attempt to appease the right wing of his own party! His legacy will now always be Brexit!

[Zeb]

Loads of people use VPNs nowadays anyway. I get detected as being in the Netherlands since i started using one.

Amusingly enough, my autodetected location for Twitter is in Scotland. Last time Scotland included Manchester, the Stewarts were heading down to London with an army.

[Wabaloolah]

Where have you got this from, is this your opinion?
The SNP would not have made the statements they did yesterday if this was true. am sure this will become clearer over the next few months, you may well be right but we shall see.

it's just my opinion but Scotland is not currently a member of the EU in its own right, neither is England, Wales or Northern Ireland. It's possible that Brexit may very well play to the advantage of pro-independence Scots as the EU would be sympathetic to Scottish EU membership.

However, I doubt it will be on the same terms as the current relationship with the UK, it will very much be on EU terms as they would have all the cards to play

Interesting times

FWIW, Sturgeon has played a blinder and it is somewhat ironic of May to accuse her of playing politics with people's futures when thats exactly what Cameron did with the EU referendum!

[Alan_X]

Good luck with Jez mate!  He's 7 out of 10 for remain (he thinks). And 0 of 10 to ever see a Labour government. And 10 of 10 to see Scotland off. And about 6 of 10 to see a united, independent Ireland in the next few years.

At least one of those ought to make him happy given his past history.

He's 10 out of 10 for a united Ireland - he voted against the Anglo-Irish Agreement on exactly that principle.

Mr. Corbyn

Does the hon. Gentleman accept that some of us oppose the agreement for reasons other than those that he has given? We believe that the agreement strengthens rather than weakens the border between the six and the 26 counties, and those of us who wish to see a United Ireland oppose the agreement for that reason.

http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/commons/1985/nov/27/anglo-irish-agreement

[oldfordie]

it's just my opinion but Scotland is not currently a member of the EU in its own right, neither is England, Wales or Northern Ireland. It's possible that Brexit may very well play to the advantage of pro-independence Scots as the EU would be sympathetic to Scottish EU membership.

However, I doubt it will be on the same terms as the current relationship with the UK, it will very much be on EU terms as they would have all the cards to play

Interesting times

FWIW, Sturgeon has played a blinder and it is somewhat ironic of May to accuse her of playing politics with people's futures when thats exactly what Cameron did with the EU referendum!

It is going to be interesting and we all have our own views on this.
I think the EU will bend over backwards for Scotland for a few reasons.
The Scottish MEP got a standing ovation from all the other EU members MEPs last June, he told them Scotland wanted to remain in the EU and he pleaded with them not to forsake Scotland.
If Scotland are fast tracked back in then it will encourage the rest of the UK to rejoin in the future..
It wouldn't be wise to delay their re-entry for years as the UK stay campaign argument would be weakened in the future. the leave campaign would argue it's no good crying over spilt milk, it would take many years to rejoin the EU even if we wanted too.
If Scotland do make a success of Brexit then this will really rub salt in the wounds of Frottage and all the other leave campaigners trying to break up the EU.
I was impressed just how well Sturgeon argued the case for another referendum as well. she mentioned how it was a proviso in the SNP manifesto, she argued the SNP has exhausted all avenues with the UK government to fight for Scotlands interests, they were promised more of a say in their own affairs and they've met a brick wall. May has come out of this looking like a novice.
Ive no idea what happens now as it all boils down to the argument of whether they can remain if the rest of the UK leave, if they can remain then they are justified wanting plenty of time to make sure the legal complications are completed. referendums cant be held at short notice so this will be a problem.
The government would have to announce the final deal months before the 2yr deadline.