Topic: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"

[Ghost Town]

Today didn't change anything in that regard? May will try again in the last week of March (26th?) so MV3 is likely to fail because MPs who'll have a decision to make will want to seek a consensus around their preferred option later next week. All that altered today was that there is now political cover to seek a short term extension (which would be needed even to pass the PM's deal anyway) and another expression by MPs that 'no deal' isn't what they want but they're not quite ready to take over governing the country from Parliament just yet.

So you don't think the Brexiters will be swayed by May's blackmail threats about potential No Brexit or Two Year extensions etc if they fail to support her?

I hope you're right.

[Team Sleep]

pundit-led TV has failed, & there's more of it than ever. If there is insight into our national breakdown, unlikely to find it in a collision of novelist, blogger, columnist & thinktanker, at least one of whom will usually be a wholly-owned subsidiary of one of the main parties

https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1106124121430282240?s=20

[Red Beret]

So you don't think the Brexiters will be swayed by May's blackmail threats about potential No Brexit or Two Year extensions etc if they fail to support her?

I hope you're right.

I don't think May's got the ovaries to go No Deal.  Her bluff has been well and truly called.

[Ghost Town]

I don't think May's got the ovaries to go No Deal.  Her bluff has been well and truly called.

Maybe, but surely that means Brexiters will estimate that they will only get Brexit via her deal, and buckle accordingly?

[scouseman]

So you don't think the Brexiters will be swayed by May's blackmail threats about potential No Brexit or Two Year extensions etc if they fail to support her?

I hope you're right.

My hope is that the speaker does not allow May to bring about another vote has it has been defeated so badly.

[west_london_red]

So you don't think the Brexiters will be swayed by May's blackmail threats about potential No Brexit or Two Year extensions etc if they fail to support her?

I hope you're right.

May has more chance of winning over Labour MPs to get her deal through then enough of the ERG.

[scouseman]

Maybe, but surely that means Brexiters will estimate that they will only get Brexit via her deal, and buckle accordingly?

the default position is to leave on the 29th March anyway so I think the hard brexit wing will still vote down her deal knowing that they get what they want by default. Very depressing   

[Alan_X]

Ok I'll take this. Essay incoming:

Here's my assessment. The global downturn, doubled down with austerity has fucked up millions of people's lives and futures. And I mean really, really fucked up. I can tell you some stories that would make you weep, except that you could probably tell me equally awful ones back, and we'd just cry at each other, so let's not go there now.

Everyone with a functioning brain knows that austerity doesn't work. But because too many Britons have a dominant gene for deference, servility and forelock-tugging whenever posh twats tell them something, too many people - including most Labour politicians, to their shame - believed Gideon and the pig fucker and enabled the wholesale battering and scouring of a nation.

So...what's that got to do with Brexit and the EU-hate? Thing is until the refernedum, there was literally no hope; no way out of the misery we were mired in. Those most affected assumed that this was it; there would never be good times again. The die had been cast; the rubicon had been crossed - and it wasn't even mango-flavoured.

And then the referendum farrago - or should that be Frottage? - started and suddenly there was a chink of light; a tiny vestige of hope that all blame could be put on the EU and immigration and Britain's 'lack of soverignty' and 'lack of control'.

Suddenly it wasn't the cruelty of the very rich which was to blame - something that has been with humankind since day one and is to all intents and purposes unassailable - but rather a more managable set of causes which, crucially, something could be done about. After all, that's what the media are telling us, right? And man of the people Nigel Frottage?

And so those near-dead and drowning people, disadvantaged by a lack of education or a paucity of previous interest in politics and processes, grabbed onto that lifeline with both hands and a fear-induced clutch mechanism that means they will NOT let go. This is their only hope. Brexit HAS to happen, because Brexit is the ONLY way out of hell. No amount of facts or truths or reality will ever surmount the vicissitudes of a last, final, breathless, desperate hope.

And the irony is that it's the very same cruel rich who caused these problems and compunded them with austerity, that have now thrown us this bone. So they can sit back and laugh at us.

Like they have always done.

And the short answer is that people like someone or something else to blame for their problems. Immigrants, the media, political ideologies, religion... 

If we just got rid of (insert name here) everything would be better. There has been a campaign for decades now to cast Europe as the bogeyman. And it’s worked. Add blaming immigration on the EU and it’s a done deal.

[Zeb]

So you don't think the Brexiters will be swayed by May's blackmail threats about potential No Brexit or Two Year extensions etc if they fail to support her?

I hope you're right.

No, I was just expressing the opinion you quoted rather than the one you attributed to be honest. Nothing today changed anything either way but the votes which will potentially change things are still ahead. Benn's bill failed because the government said they'd hold the indicative votes that Benn's bill was intended to try and force to happen. So there's the point to find a compromise if one can be found.

[Ghost Town]

And the short answer is that people like someone or something else to blame for their problems. Immigrants, the media, political ideologies, religion... 

If we just got rid of (insert name here) everything would be better. There has been a campaign for decades now to cast Europe as the bogeyman. And it’s worked. Add blaming immigration on the EU and it’s a done deal.

I agree, and the 'cruel rich' I refer to have used that for the win

[Alan_X]

I said as much a few pages back. I think because they've realised they can't get the Brexit they want they'd rather forget the whole thing, at least for now. But they cant be too obvious about it because it would ruin the credibility of their position (ha!) So they're being increasingly intransigent in the hopes the deal gets pulled and somebody else can take the blame for Brexit failing.

Problem is RoboMay seems hell bent on driving it through regardless.

I think you’re underestimating the lunacy of the Brexit zealots. A lot of them actually believe that ‘Great’ Britain can rule the world again if it just casts off the shackles of Europe. They believe in free-market economics and total deregulation. They may know that the impact on most ordinary people will be devastating but that’s not their concern. If people can’t be bothered to set up an off-shore trust fund with their inheritance then they don’t deserve any sympathy.

It’s a cult run by c*nts.

[Alan_X]

I agree, and the 'cruel rich' I refer to have used that for the win

Exactly.

[Red Beret]

Maybe, but surely that means Brexiters will estimate that they will only get Brexit via her deal, and buckle accordingly?

That assumes that all Brexiters want Brexit at any and all costs, and that Bercow will allow a third vote.

The bottom line is that there is just no consensus in Parliament for any option; and it looks like the "absolute Brexit" brigade don't command a majority.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

There’s a brilliant clip with Jon snow and Matt Hancock, snow absolutely tearing him a new one

[Ghost Town]

Ok thanks to all. Some hope regained. MV3 still due for a pasting (though it should never be allowed in the first place).

Or maybe Bercow will be the saviour, and revocation might enter the debate because there's nothing left. The thing you want, the thing you need, the answer is, after all, always in the last place you look*





*and yes I know that's because you stop looking, but you know what I mean

[Red Beret]

I think you’re underestimating the lunacy of the Brexit zealots. A lot of them actually believe that ‘Great’ Britain can rule the world again if it just casts off the shackles of Europe. They believe in free-market economics and total deregulation. They may know that the impact on most ordinary people will be devastating but that’s not their concern. If people can’t be bothered to set up an off-shore trust fund with their inheritance then they don’t deserve any sympathy.

It’s a cult run by c*nts.

Not disputing that at all.  The point I was trying to make is that these purists want the purest form of Brexit, and if they can't get that they seem to prefer to remain until they get another shot at it.  The fact remains these nutjobs remain a minority in parliament.  Even if they all swung behind May's deal she still wouldn't win based on recent results. 

[cowtownred]

Won’t happen but I would love it if Ireland told them to stick their extension up their hole. They show a lack of respect for us daily and today has put me over the edge. Their word means fuck all and it never has.

Right on brother.

[Alan_X]

Not disputing that at all.  The point I was trying to make is that these purists want the purest form of Brexit, and if they can't get that they seem to prefer to remain until they get another shot at it.  The fact remains these nutjobs remain a minority in parliament.  Even if they all swung behind May's deal she still wouldn't win based on recent results. 

Fair enough.

[ShakaHislop]

As per Peston, our fate is in the hands of people whom their own co-party colleagues refer to as 'morons - genuinely not bright'

We are sooooo fucked

How high were the stakes tonight for the Tory party, in all those failed attempts tonight to wrest control of Brexit from the PM. Here is the view of a senior Tory MP: “The Tory Party may be finished after tonight. Seeing the huge numbers voting against a delay - shows we are...

“the Brexit Party first and Conservative Party second. If so, big moment. Shame so few ministers or MPs had the ability to understand the battle was underway or the balls to be part of it. I think tonight may show it’s too late. They lost without really putting up a fight”.

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1106308873235939334

[Red Beret]

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1106308873235939334

Fascinating.  Based on that it's a question of which major party blows up first, Labour or the Tories?  And it's almost as irrelevant as it is pertinent, as they'll both blow up anyway.

[Machae]

Labour have apparently asked four frontbenchers who voted against the second referendum to resign. One (Peacock) has just done so.

Positive development, hopefully.

Why not sack Hoey, she might as well be a Tory

[Wabaloolah]

The same EU that refuses to give us an extension would be fine with us resetting the Article 50 clock to give ourselves 2 more years of negotiating time? I wouldn't be surprised if we were taken to the ECJ if we tried that.

Revoking will realistically mean Remaining and MPs, on the current evidence, simply won't make the decision to do it without a mandate to do so from the public.

There's fuck all the EU can do about it, there is no way that May will allow us to leave without a deal. We can unilaterally revoke Article 50, we would Remain as members on the same terms as we have now including all vetos we have.

There is nothing then to stop us reinvoking Article 50 but we won't do that unless a second referendum results in a second leave vote.

If the EU won't.grant us a lengthy extension then there really is no alternative. This is presuming her 3rd attempt gets voted down, again...

[Wabaloolah]

Whatever happens though, both the Tories and Corbyn should never be forgiven for the absolute clusterfuck they have made of this whole shabby process

[Red Beret]

Whatever happens though, both the Tories and Corbyn should never be forgiven for the absolute clusterfuck they have made of this whole shabby process

Are you kidding?  By the time the next GE rolls around 80% of the voting population will have forgot all about this.

[planet-terror]

Surely Fiona Bruces' future on The Antiques road show is untenable ( ITV 3PM) after the little quips and put downs on Question Time, that would be wholly unacceptable on the  perfectly sunny Antiques road Show.

[WhereAngelsPlay]

Whatever happens though, both the Tories and Corbyn should never be forgiven for the absolute clusterfuck they have made of this whole shabby process

Corbyn should go down in history as the incompetent traitor trot that he is,in 20 years people will spit on the ground whenever his name is mentioned.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

Corbyn should go down in history as the incompetent traitor trot that he is,in 20 years people will spit on the ground whenever his name is mentioned.

in 20 years finding a corbyn supporter will be as easy as finding somebody today who supported the Iraq war

[BoRed]

Justin Madders, Stephanie Peacock, Emma Lewell-Buck and Yvonne Fovargue.

They've all resigned now.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/mar/14/brexit-mps-to-vote-on-delaying-departure-from-european-union-politics-live?page=with:block-5c8acc32e4b016d23425c1d4#block-5c8acc32e4b016d23425c1d4

[Wabaloolah]

Are you kidding?  By the time the next GE rolls around 80% of the voting population will have forgot all about this.

voters have long memories, remember the ERM debacle in 1992. It was the moment the Tories hit the skids and the election was five years away. The electorate never forgave them.

There's not a chance this government will last until 2022.

They'll be blamed for this when it goes tits up and unless Labour ditch Corbyn, they will be too

[ShakaHislop]

There's fuck all the EU can do about it, there is no way that May will allow us to leave without a deal. We can unilaterally revoke Article 50, we would Remain as members on the same terms as we have now including all vetos we have.

There is nothing then to stop us reinvoking Article 50 but we won't do that unless a second referendum results in a second leave vote.

If the EU won't.grant us a lengthy extension then there really is no alternative. This is presuming her 3rd attempt gets voted down, again...

75      In view of all the foregoing, the answer to the question referred is that Article 50 TEU must be interpreted as meaning that, where a Member State has notified the European Council, in accordance with that article, of its intention to withdraw from the European Union, that article allows that Member State — for as long as a withdrawal agreement concluded between that Member State and the European Union has not entered into force or, if no such agreement has been concluded, for as long as the two-year period laid down in Article 50(3) TEU, possibly extended in accordance with that paragraph, has not expired — to revoke that notification unilaterally, in an unequivocal and unconditional manner, by a notice addressed to the European Council in writing, after the Member State concerned has taken the revocation decision in accordance with its constitutional requirements. The purpose of that revocation is to confirm the EU membership of the Member State concerned under terms that are unchanged as regards its status as a Member State, and that revocation brings the withdrawal procedure to an end.

http://curia.europa.eu/juris/document/document.jsf;jsessionid=DF0DD28282B842703CE46FC27BE3A0C9?text=&docid=208636&pageIndex=0&doclang=EN&mode=req&dir=&occ=first&part=1&cid=3954030

Revoking so we can try and form a consensus about our exit could definitely be challenged with regards to the criteria in bold IMO.

Revoking and then holding another in-out referendum in the near future is also a bit dubious. Revocation is supposed to confirm your membership yet we'd be putting the invocation of A50 on a ballot paper again? The EU could argue we could have had a 2nd referendum within the current Article 50 period and that it could have acted as our "revocation decision in accordance with our constitutional requirements"

[Red Beret]

voters have long memories, remember the ERM debacle in 1992. It was the moment the Tories hit the skids and the election was five years away. The electorate never forgave them.

There's not a chance this government will last until 2022.

They'll be blamed for this when it goes tits up and unless Labour ditch Corbyn, they will be too

I understand what you're saying, and all things being equal I would agree.  However, under the circumstances, I have to disagree.  Quite simply, it was a different time back then - pre internet for one thing.  It's ironic that the spread of global, instant information and communicate has led to worldwide stupidity and ignorance.

John Major is a political giant compared to Theresa May.  If this Brexit is stalled or abandoned, most people just wont give a shit.  Only the people it hits directly will care.

As for lasting until 2022, with the fixed term parliament act the only thing that can trigger a GE is a no confidence vote or if the PM calls for a dissolution of parliament.  Given the government recently won the former I can't see how we have a GE before May decides to call one.

[Mag Hull]

Corbyn should go down in history as the incompetent traitor trot that he is,in 20 years people will spit on the ground whenever his name is mentioned.

I’m sorry but Palestinian posturing and Russian apologists is not what the Labour Party has ever been about to me. I resigned my membership over the Iraq war but rejoined - but fuck me - Corbyn is an essay in Inconsequential - Tooting Popular Front politics in the age of Brexit.

This Party is supposed to be the opposition ffs - the sooner McDonnell fucks off Jeremy n Momentum the better - we stand half a chance then

QED - Marina Hyde, Guardian:

On the other side of the house, meanwhile, sat Jeremy Corbyn, who famously wanted to trigger article 50 before anyone else, on the very day after the referendum. Yet on Tuesday he was wittering at the prime minister: “The clock has been run out on her!” Corbyn now seems to be back to pushing his phantom Brexit deal, as opposed to the second referendum he briefly suggested was Labour policy. I know rebelling against the leadership is Corbyn’s comfort zone, but it does make you look a historic tit when you are the leadership.

[Zeb]

http://curia.europa.eu/juris/document/document.jsf;jsessionid=DF0DD28282B842703CE46FC27BE3A0C9?text=&docid=208636&pageIndex=0&doclang=EN&mode=req&dir=&occ=first&part=1&cid=3954030

Revoking so we can try and form a consensus about our exit could definitely be challenged with regards to the criteria in bold IMO.

Revoking and then holding another in-out referendum in the near future is also a bit dubious. Revocation is supposed to confirm your membership yet we'd be putting the invocation of A50 on a ballot paper again? The EU could argue we could have had a 2nd referendum within the current Article 50 period and that it could have acted as our "revocation decision in accordance with our constitutional requirements"

Steve Peers and other law profs. have been of the view that there's no real way to enforce that unless we did the okey cokey with Article 50 repeatedly. Once a country has decided to revoke Article 50, which it has the right to do, then it also has the right to lodge it again if it changes its mind again. 

[Sangria]

I’m sorry but Palestinian posturing and Russian apologists is not what the Labour Party has ever been about to me. I resigned my membership over the Iraq war but rejoined - but fuck me - Corbyn is an essay in Inconsequential - Tooting Popular Front politics in the age of Brexit.

This Party is supposed to be the opposition ffs - the sooner McDonnell fucks off Jeremy n Momentum the better - we stand half a chance then

QED - Marina Hyde, Guardian:

On the other side of the house, meanwhile, sat Jeremy Corbyn, who famously wanted to trigger article 50 before anyone else, on the very day after the referendum. Yet on Tuesday he was wittering at the prime minister: “The clock has been run out on her!” Corbyn now seems to be back to pushing his phantom Brexit deal, as opposed to the second referendum he briefly suggested was Labour policy. I know rebelling against the leadership is Corbyn’s comfort zone, but it does make you look a historic tit when you are the leadership.

See the audience booing Owen Smith in the leadership debates when one candidate was standing up for Remain and the other was standing up for Jeremy Corbyn. The Labour party is now all about Jeremy Corbyn and nothing else. As the Labour conference directive to push for a second referendum and its follow up has shown, Labour policy is whatever Jeremy Corbyn decides it is.

[Ghost Town]

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1106308873235939334

Interesting. But I don't really agree with Peston's source there. As I've mentioned before, this country is too hidebound, to in-thrall to tradition. We make a massive fuck off fetish of it - just look at the way Parliament works - and we love it. Even when we claim we don't. It's in our genes.

And the Tory Party is part of that old tradition, and that's why like a horror franchise monster it will never die, but will keep shambling along, even when its skin has been peeled and burned and blasted away and its ignominious insides are exposed in all their vile, toxic ugliness. The T is T2 might as well have stood for Tory.

They are older than Methuselah; they've been around since before their name. They'll outlive us all, and will still be trying to fuck you and me up long after we're in our graves. Death, taxes and Tories trying to fuckpunch you are the only certainties in life.

What could possibly happen, however, after this omnishambles, is that the kind of broad church party politics we take for granted might begin to splinter a bit. We could possibly end up with more constant and viable parties, each one smaller and more focussed, with more coalition governance, as happens in some other countries. UKIP, the ERG, Momentum and TIG are sort of lighting the way for that already. Ditching FPTP would make it a cert, but even without doing that, there could still be changes in that direction.

[Dr. Beaker]

Interesting. But I don't really agree with Peston's source there. As I've mentioned before, this country is too hidebound, to in-thrall to tradition. We make a massive fuck off fetish of it - just look at the way Parliament works - and we love it. Even when we claim we don't. It's in our genes.

And the Tory Party is part of that old tradition, and that's why like a horror franchise monster it will never die, but will keep shambling along, even when it's skin has been peeled and burned and blasted away and it's ignominious insides are exposed in all their vile, toxic ugliness. The T is T2 might as well have stood for Tory.

They are older than Methuselah; they've been around since before their name. They'll outlive us all, and will still be trying to fuck you and me up long after we're in our graves. Death, taxes and Tories trying to fuckpunch you are the only certainties in life.

What could possibly happen, however, after this omnishambles, is that the kind of broad church party politics we take for granted might begin to splinter a bit. We could possibly end up with more constant and viable parties, each one smaller and more focussed, with more coalition governance, as happens in some other countries. UKIP, the ERG, Momentum and TIG are sort of lighting the way for that already. Ditching FPTP would make it a cert, but even without doing that, there could still be changes in that direction.

I think we'll stick with the traditions. The politicians need them more now than ever. It's their way of keeping us focussed on the past. They want this because we haven't got a future and it's their fault.

[Ghost Town]

As for lasting until 2022, with the fixed term parliament act the only thing that can trigger a GE is a no confidence vote or if the PM calls for a dissolution of parliament.  Given the government recently won the former I can't see how we have a GE before May decides to call one.

There could be another Vote of No Confidence, and everything that ensues thereafter. And another after that, and so on.

We've seen how de rigueur it is to change your votes these days. Hell, the cool kids vote against the very poposal they just commended to the House two minutes previously, while the Corbyn kids come out to praise a course of action they just whipped to abstain from voting for.

[Ghost Town]

I think we'll stick with the traditions. The politicians need them more now than ever. It's their way of keeping us focussed on the past. They want this because we haven't got a future and it's their fault.

Good point Doc. Pay no attention to the world beyond the curtains. Keep watching this old black and white footage of how luvely fings used to be

[Banquo's Ghost]

I'm not as up on my Bagehot as I should be, but surely if May wins one at the third attempt, that simply means she has to go for best of five?

[killer-heels]

May’s deal is getting through in round 4.